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warpig

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About warpig

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  1. A monthly close above the third brick should confirm a breakout.
  2. Not contributing to an EU budget. https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
  3. They're already struggling to pay out and default is a genuine concern. The World Economic Forum stated the pension deficit grows by 28 billion dollars every 24 hours and will be 5 times global production by 2050. Unfunded liabilities, QE and the gilt market, along with the erosion of trust in the government, unaccounted inflation, Brexit and a falling stock market will bring this to a head in the next couple of years. It has been likened to the cataclysmic effect of a financial global warming. There's lots to read on the subject - https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/10/03/the-pension-storm-is-coming-to-europe-it-may-be-the-end-of-europe-as-we-know-it/#571528be1a5c https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166196-pension-crisis-worse-think
  4. OK so we largely agree, but who buys the government bonds? Pension funds? They have their own crisis because of this... The bond market is where the money supply is created and a lot of what we do in life is taking future earnings and spending it today. If the availability of finance is severely impeded by 1) Rising IR's 2) Reduced creditworthiness 3) Reduced appetite for risk then it will feed in on itself. It's a snake eating it's own tail and the pace of this process is exponential in nature. The next 2-5-10 years are going to be grim for lots of reasons.
  5. The government continues to fail daily. The EU is collapsing - if that isn't enough reason to leave, then I don't know what is and we won't be the last. The EU knows the Germans won't pay for the Greeks and the Italians know austerity is political suicide, they're now defying the EU. At best the EU will split between the Northern and Southern countries, the PIIGS will leave, be forced out or cause the EU to collapse. Take your pick. The economic impact of leaving without a deal will be short-lived, perhaps 9 months of pain, it's not forever. Staying in an EU no man's land is less palatable than no deal IMO.
  6. I've been banging this drum since 2005. We've just clicked into the next business cycle and BREXIT will likely be seen as the catalyst, but the reality is this storm has been brewing for a long time. It's more a case it's just going to collapse under its own weight, it just needs a trigger. The West has been spending for decades and is at the height of decadence, whilst the East has been working hard and saving. There is going to be a tidal shift to the East and it's going to be unpalatable for many in the West.
  7. Are you for real? What was a banking crisis was shored up by the central banks and became a sovereign debt crisis. Losses were socialised and gains privatised. The Central Banks are the lender of last resort, once the Central Banks become the only buyers of government debt, who backstops the Central Banks? Who is the lender of last resort to the lender of last resort? The 2008 crisis was never dealt with and this was a manifestation of the .dot come crash and ultimately it can be traced all the way back to the Nixon Shock. The reality is the Western world is facing a bond market crisis and that undermines the backbone of the whole financial system. Interest rates are going to rise spectacularly and that will hit everything... It starts now.
  8. Be honest - the Leave campaign had no way of telling the British public what it "would" look like, because it required extensive negotiations and had numerous possible outcomes. In principal they could tell you what we would get, i.e. our economic and political freedom. Everything they suggested was a "potential" benefit and was no way set in stone.
  9. If Brexit is a failure, it's a failure of the government to secure the future of this country, not a failure of the people's wishes to be a self-governing country once again. I would prefer a hard Brexit with a lot of short-term grief than this offering.
  10. You haven't made a point, only an observation. If you're held captive by an entity, it's natural to want to escape.
  11. It relates to the recent OPEC comments and the rising dollar.
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