Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

36 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

That actually makes our position on trade negotiations even stronger.

And when food prices go through the roof ?

And the great unwashed stuggle to eat ?

Good for trade ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, ccc said:

More people = more GDP = happy MP's /big business = shitter life for everyone else.

 

That's exactly the economic model they've been pushing for a decade now...more people = more gdp = more debt = more idiots to pay it back.

BrExit = spanner in the works.

Spanner in the works = TPTB wont stop the immigration one way or another.

The have no plan B.

 

[ccc]

Its certainly a conundrum for them. As I and many others have stated numerous times - the people who voted Brexit NEED to start seeing less Eastern Europeans on every street they walk down. If not - UKIP are going to become very powerful again IMO.

[Peter Hun]

30 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

That actually makes our position on trade negotiations even stronger.

No it doesn't. A weaker currency makes us a poorer customer and more competitive exporter

[Peter Hun]

8 minutes ago, ccc said:

If not - UKIP are going to become very powerful again IMO.

They were never powerful

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 minutes ago, ccc said:

Its certainly a conundrum for them. As I and many others have stated numerous times - the people who voted Brexit NEED to start seeing less Eastern Europeans on every street they walk down. If not - UKIP are going to become very powerful again IMO.

The rise of the far right has already started.

It's like it's being encoraged.

TPTB must surely know the effect immigragtion has on a population, it's been seen time and time again in history.

We should be very suspecious of the Westminster government right now, look at their actions over the last 15 years.  They have done nothing for the British people and everything to empower/enrich a small minority in society.

Maybe Theresa May, wife of a financier,  et all will turn out to be the solution to the problem, but I seriously have grave reservations.

Edited October 4, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere

[onlyme2]

31 minutes ago, ccc said:

More people = more GDP = happy MP's /big business = shitter life for everyone else.

Take roads for example.

Chronic lack of investment as population has been squeezed into situation where it is more cramped and housing issues mean many are trapped and have to stay in current housing and commute even more than they would otherwise have to.

Meanwhile, we are net contributors helping to foot the bill for funding infrastructure elsewhere which is desperately needed here.

EU approves €1.7bn in funding for Polish roads

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/eu-approves-andeuro17bn-in-funding-for-polish-roads

[ccc]

UKIP were never powerful.....

This the same UKIP that managed to get us to leave the EU ?

Some people really are blinkered when it comes to this subject.

[onlyme2]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

GBPUSD below 1.28 now. The market doesn't like what UKIP aka Tories are saying. 

Well, every time they are going to bust the budget or the bank of england print / QE us into the shitter then the pound falls.

 

[Riedquat]

8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I only caught the end of Newsnight, and didn't see the quoted interview but apparently Philip Hammond had said in interview that the central treasury forecast is that Brexit will leave the UK permanently around 4% poorer.   Even worse, this is the case that assumes we get a good exit deal with the numbers for a hard Brexit being 6-8% poorer.

4%, oh the humanity. Even if it's the 6-8%, that's the complete and utter disaster Remainers keep predicting? Anyway just means a bit less money to spend on obnoxious crap, it's not as if we ever use what wealth there is (or I should say fake wealth) for anything actually worth having for anyone who gives a crap about a pleasant life.

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

GBPUSD below 1.28 now. The market doesn't like what UKIP aka Tories are saying. 

FTSE up 7070

FTSE 250 up 18475

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Osborne predicted GDP growth for the UK if we remained in the EU, but his prediction entirely relied upon 3.3 million extra immigrants living in the UK by 2030.  GDP has become an immigration ponzi scheme in the UK - a measurement that is becoming increasingly meaningless to everyone.  Economic growth based almost entirely upon mass immigration is unsustainable madness.

It will be interesting to see Hammonds update to the immigration assumption in the October statement. Logically it should be down significantly as the predicted smaller economy means about 1.2m fewer jobs (at a rough calculation 4% of 30m jobs) which should translate into about 2.5m fewer migrants. Although, we could maintain migration and just have higher unemployment.   

[Riedquat]

8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Because of Brexit our debt levels are going to get even more insane

Wrong. It's because of our government that they will. If being a member of the EU does anything in that respect it's just delaying some of the consequences of finanical irresponsibility. The country needs to learn to live within its means.

[Riedquat]

19 minutes ago, onlyme2 said:

Take roads for example.

Chronic lack of investment as population has been squeezed into situation where it is more cramped and housing issues mean many are trapped and have to stay in current housing and commute even more than they would otherwise have to.

Meanwhile, we are net contributors helping to foot the bill for funding infrastructure elsewhere which is desperately needed here.

EU approves €1.7bn in funding for Polish roads

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/eu-approves-andeuro17bn-in-funding-for-polish-roads

An argument for population reduction, not building more godawful infrastructure. If the EU helps fund large-scale vandalism then eff off EU please.

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, Venger said:

Any blustering fool can be confident, but the substance of what she says, and her actions, really really matter. 

It's not a shiny happy people game out there, with all the other European countries wishing the HPI chasing junky ego British all the best, and wanting to get us all signed up to everything on our terms but little on theirs. 

They'll be looking for what they can take, businesses/sectors they can attract, and to make us pay, imo. 
 

 

We've got silence from the EU - and they're watching us take our positions on what UK expects from Brexit.  Loose lips sink friendships.

Advice from Ricky Roma in 17 seconds.  (Not Safe For Work - some bad language at the end).

 

This piece in the FT sets out the risks and the reasons we are unlikely to get a good deal from the EU pretty well.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b78f276-8940-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1  (or Google Theresa May walks into)

[Riedquat]

8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This piece in the FT sets out the risks and the reasons we are unlikely to get a good deal from the EU pretty well.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b78f276-8940-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1  (or Google Theresa May walks into)

The reason we're not likely to get a good deal with the EU is that it's a broken, corrupt, obnoxious organisation that has no interest in making a good deal because it's in a childish sulk after being snubbed. The problem with every "We should've voted to stay in" argument is that it's another argument for why the EU needs burying at a crossroads with a stake through its heart.

Edited October 4, 2016 by Riedquat
typo

[canbuywontbuy]

40 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

No it doesn't. A weaker currency makes us a poorer customer and more competitive exporter

That's exactly my point.  Our goods are cheaper to those buying them.   From a negotiating perspective, it's the importers (to the UK) who should be more worried about losing trade.  In the longer term, the UK needs to stop relying so heavily on imported goods (we do have a trade deficit).  This is a classic glass half-full/empty scenario - no surprises that remainers always see the glass half-empty.

[Confusion of VIs]

7 hours ago, london_thirtythree said:

Apologises if this has been posted earlier - but didn't seem to get reported in much of the normal media, so I completely missed it at the time earlier in September.

Bit depressing, and bit of a blow to Boris's predictions of opening up trade with Australia over Europe. (late night pondering given all the talk of 'hard' Brexit over the weekend..)

"Australia's historical relationship with the UK is now one of  "yesteryear," the country's trade minister told the European Parliament today, as he stressed that doing a free trade deal with the EU was now a greater priority for Australia than doing one with post-Brexit UK."

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/australian-trade-minister-says-special-relationship-with-uk

A bit of realism, but I doubt it will stop the Tory Brexiteers fantasising about countries queueing up to do trade deals with us.

[canbuywontbuy]

58 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And when food prices go through the roof ?

And the great unwashed stuggle to eat ?

Good for trade ?

About time the UK dealt with its trade deficit and used Brexit as a catalyst to bring back manufacturing to the UK again.

Nah, that's too long-term thinking.  Nobody can stand short-term pain anymore - THAT is the real problem.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, canbuywontbuy said:

That's exactly my point.  Our goods are cheaper to those buying them.   From a negotiating perspective, it's the importers (to the UK) who should be more worried about losing trade.  In the longer term, the UK needs to stop relying so heavily on imported goods (we do have a trade deficit).  This is a classic glass half-full/empty scenario - no surprises that remainers always see the glass half-empty.

If you look at the numbers you can very quickly see why although this may occasionally work for export focussed countries, it doesn't work like that for the UK.

Our exports only represent around 25% of our GDP, £ has lost about 15% of its value since the referendum vote, so it would take a massive 60% boost in exports to recover the lost GDP and even without factoring in loss of membership of the single market that's not going to happen.  

[NuBrit]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I only caught the end of Newsnight, and didn't see the quoted interview but apparently Philip Hammond had said in interview that the central treasury forecast is that Brexit will leave the UK permanently around 4% poorer.   Even worse, this is the case that assumes we get a good exit deal with the numbers for a hard Brexit being 6-8% poorer.

 

 

 

 

The collapse in Sterling has already had has left us poorer. Inventory run-down and hedging by businesses have meant that consumers haven't really seen the full impact yet. By the new year though, I suspect we're all going to start to notice the rising prices of imported goods.

I know that folks on here are appalled by the actions of the Bank of England and the Chancellor on increasing the deficit and trashing Sterling, but think about it for a moment. We know that Brexit has spooked markets and business. We know that a hard Brexit is likely to spook them even more. What if it's simply the case that they have no choice? The BOE and Exchequer will have daily information on things like tax receipts, capital flows and VAT, and you can be guaranteed that these numbers are under intense scrutiny. If there is weakness in economic activity, then the priority of the government is 100% to prevent it from manifesting on the high street.

[nome]

FTSE 100 through 7000 this morning, don't know if it's still down to Theresas brexit speech yesterday.

[Confusion of VIs]

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The reason we're not likely to get a good deal with the EU is that it's a broken, corrupt, obnoxious organisation that has no interest in making a good deal because it's in a childish sulk after being snubbed. The problem with every "We should've voted to stay in" argument is that it's another argument for why the EU needs burying at a crossroads with a stake through its heart.

No its for the perfectly logical reason that, if you run a club and someone leaves, once they stop paying their membership fee they have to give up the benefits of membership. If you didn't do that you soon would have no club.

Add into that the fact that many other states have always been jealous of and resent what they saw as the UKs privileged position within the EU; and annoyed about the UK being a major force behind the expansion of the EU into EE and now leaving basically because the EU expanded into EE; and even more annoyed at the timing of leaving with many suspecting that the UK has deliberately set out to damage/destroy the EU and you can easily see why hopes of a friendly exit are likely to come to nothing.

 

[NuBrit]

1 minute ago, nome said:

FTSE 100 through 7000 this morning, don't know if it's still down to Theresas brexit speech yesterday.

The FTSE hitting a new high is really only indicative of Sterling hitting a three year low.

[Confusion of VIs]

21 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

About time the UK dealt with its trade deficit and used Brexit as a catalyst to bring back manufacturing to the UK again.

Nah, that's too long-term thinking.  Nobody can stand short-term pain anymore - THAT is the real problem.

Its also completely at odds with the free trade vision of Liam Fox, where the UK effectively gives up on manufacturing and pursues an even more service led economy.