Reform Is the 2024 Dark Horse

[Pebbles]

2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I still think they won't win any seats, though they will hand about 100 to Labour and the lib dems.

In 2029 they could potentially replace the conservatives though and start winning some

This is my thoughts too they might get one seat. 2029 however I expect them to be a serious political force.

[reddog]

I don't think Reform did well in the Rochdale by-election, but that is partly due to a strong local independent candidate.

 

Also I think they made a mistake by using a former labour MP who resigned due to texting a 17 year old.

 

Hopefully they can move on from this though and up their game.

[fellow]

Lee Anderson defects from Conservatives to Reform.

"I want my country back".

[Brave New World]

3 party Lee is home

That's the problem with having a loss leader BS platform like GBeebies, you end up believing your own hype and 'exposure'.

A small cult of mindless baby boomers watching GBnews, talk etc does not make minority party in the House.

[Fromage Frais]

16 minutes ago, fellow said:

Lee Anderson defects from Conservatives to Reform.

"I want my country back".

Yep

On the cards and a bit silly to remove the whip which now means they have a voice in parliment and one which is on BG news all the time.

Will they win load of seats.... unlikely but they now have an MP and I expect a few more to follow as they have nothing to loose and the first one has jumped ship.

The GE if held soon without any massive event to change things is going to be a hammering for the conservatives so maybe prudent to declare oneself pure and join reform and protect the talking head opportunities on GB News and podcasts.

Edited March 11 by Fromage Frais

[winkie]

https://news.sky.com/story/talktv-to-be-taken-off-air-after-two-years-to-focus-on-streaming-as-gb-news-reports-heavy-losses-13087754

Birthday boy.

[Bruce Banner]

13 minutes ago, Brave New World said:

3 party Lee is home

That's the problem with having a loss leader BS platform like GBeebies, you end up believing your own hype and 'exposure'.

A small cult of mindless baby boomers watching GBnews, talk etc does not make minority party in the House.

Baby Boomer here...

I occasionally try to watch GB News to see what nonsense it is putting out as propaganda. That Richard Tice is a piece of work.

As far I can see it's a mouthpiece for the "Tory" right and the borderline fascist Reform party, beloved by xenophobes and racists.

 

[Shrink Proof]

Media world in shock as little known TV presenter takes part time job as MP.

[Bear Necessities]

15 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Yep

On the cards and a bit silly to remove the whip which now means they have a voice in parliment and one which is on BG news all the time.

Will they win load of seats.... unlikely but they now have an MP and I expect a few more to follow as they have nothing to loose and the first one has jumped ship.

The GE if held soon without any massive event to change things is going to be a hammering for the conservatives so maybe prudent to declare oneself pure and join reform and protect the talking head opportunities on GB News and podcasts.

Regardless of which "side" of the right/left divide everyone is, I think it's utterly mental that an MP can defect to a different party and carry on as if that is fine.  It should be an automatic by election.  I know people go on about "oh you are voting for the individual MP, not the party" but that's utter nonsense.  People are voting for the party and the manifesto of that party just as much as for the individual, usually a lot more so.   So regardless if it's a tory jumping to labour, or a libdem jumping to the Tories or a tory jumping to reform, I just don't understand why it isn't automatically "you don't stand for the manifesto you stood on, so let's have another vote and see if we still want you."?

 

also am I right in thinking this rat has jumped ship before?
Treating parliament like a game of musical chairs.

Edited March 11 by Bear Necessities

[Bruce Banner]

Just now, Bear Necessities said:

Regardless of which "side" of the right/left divide everyone is, I think it's utterly mental that an MP can defect to a different party and carry on as if that is fine.  It should be an automatic by election.  I know people go on about "oh you are voting for the individual MP, not the party" but that's utter nonsense.  People are voting for the party and the manifesto of that party just as much as for the individual, usually a lot more so.   So regardless if it's a tory jumping to labour, or a libdem jumping to the Tories or a tory jumping to reform, I just don't understand why it isn't automatically "you don't stand for the manifesto you stood on, so let's have another vote and see if we still want you."?

Agreed, but it could prompt Sunak to call an early election before more of his MPs jump ship. Every cloud has a silver lining.

[Bear Necessities]

6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Agreed, but it could prompt Sunak to call an early election before more of his MPs jump ship. Every cloud has a silver lining.

True.

But even if he calls it now it feels like a "at least two years late" election rather than an early one!

[Shrink Proof]

When it came to a vote it turned out that Lee Anderson voted for recall petitions on sitting MPs changing their party. I'm sure he'll be tendering his resignation later today...

[Fromage Frais]

41 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said:

Regardless of which "side" of the right/left divide everyone is, I think it's utterly mental that an MP can defect to a different party and carry on as if that is fine.  It should be an automatic by election.  I know people go on about "oh you are voting for the individual MP, not the party" but that's utter nonsense.  People are voting for the party and the manifesto of that party just as much as for the individual, usually a lot more so.   So regardless if it's a tory jumping to labour, or a libdem jumping to the Tories or a tory jumping to reform, I just don't understand why it isn't automatically "you don't stand for the manifesto you stood on, so let's have another vote and see if we still want you."?

 

also am I right in thinking this rat has jumped ship before?
Treating parliament like a game of musical chairs.

He has already done this before as he used to be Labour (pls correct if wrong).

Thats the system we have at the end of the day it has a logic in that framework.  He will most likely be out either way so this gives him a bit more fame before he goes.  
 

40 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Agreed, but it could prompt Sunak to call an early election before more of his MPs jump ship. Every cloud has a silver lining.

Yep but I just do not see the logic to it unless they feel it is about to get much much worse.

Even if it does once the housing market starts to go transactions should start to pickup as people are able to buy and this might get things rolling again.

If its a terrible time better to hold on and wait for events to possibly turn a favour.

[Trump Invective]

46 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said:

Regardless of which "side" of the right/left divide everyone is, I think it's utterly mental that an MP can defect to a different party and carry on as if that is fine.  It should be an automatic by election.  I know people go on about "oh you are voting for the individual MP, not the party" but that's utter nonsense.  People are voting for the party and the manifesto of that party just as much as for the individual, usually a lot more so.   So regardless if it's a tory jumping to labour, or a libdem jumping to the Tories or a tory jumping to reform, I just don't understand why it isn't automatically "you don't stand for the manifesto you stood on, so let's have another vote and see if we still want you."?

 

also am I right in thinking this rat has jumped ship before?
Treating parliament like a game of musical chairs.

Yep, exactly. Or what is the point of a manifesto?

[Trump Invective]

1 hour ago, fellow said:

Lee Anderson defects from Conservatives to Reform.

"I want my country back".

Make Britain Great Again!

[Fromage Frais]

48 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Baby Boomer here...

I occasionally try to watch GB News to see what nonsense it is putting out as propaganda. That Richard Tice is a piece of work.

As far I can see it's a mouthpiece for the "Tory" right and the borderline fascist Reform party, beloved by xenophobes and racists.

 

Assuming the definition of fascim is...

noun

1. (sometimes initial capital letter) a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasising an aggressive nationalism and often racism.

    

   I am not really seeing it?
   
   Nationalist I can see that, populist well fear enough but fascist lets chill out a bit.  Just because you have a different view does make other folks Hitler.

   On a side note what do you do if say you do not want unplanned immigration do you have to shut your face and accept it?
   
   Better to have a venting point IMHO otherwise it all just goes underground
    

    

[Lucky Larry]

The UK State is constantly feeding the corporate powers your taxes to bail out banks , water and energy suppliers , PPE suppliers , foreign owned steelworks , Infosys and whatever company the PMs wife has bankrupted this week. In return you have rivers of sh1t , crumbling schools , overflowing hospitals and a property market owned by the few and rented to the many. Housing benefit and help with energy bills for example comes from the taxpayer and goes direct to the landlord or the power companies allowing the costs to be kept artificially high and profitable. 

[Ballyk]

I am sorry to see Lee Anderson join Reform.  But only because it will make people less likely to vote Reform and more likely to vote Conservative. 

[Depressedpedro]

The problem for reform is they attract the same gammony people who voted brexit/Tory to get the job done, broadly working class/male/over 60s

Another 5 years down the line and their support base us going to have decreased b6 virtue of a % of them dying so unless they can find a way to energise the young into swinging back right again I think they can never hope to get beyond a few token mps.

[yodigo]

1 hour ago, Depressedpedro said:

The problem for reform is they attract the same gammony people who voted brexit/Tory to get the job done, broadly working class/male/over 60s

Another 5 years down the line and their support base us going to have decreased b6 virtue of a % of them dying so unless they can find a way to energise the young into swinging back right again I think they can never hope to get beyond a few token mps.

Noooo, doesn't work like that. They'll be replaced by others who swing their way as they get older. It's why the left never win & win & win even though they have the young on their side.

[Bob8]

6 minutes ago, yodigo said:

Noooo, doesn't work like that. They'll be replaced by others who swing their way as they get older. It's why the left never win & win & win even though they have the young on their side.

To a certain extent. Issues are linked with age and also generation. Attitudes to the EU seem to relate more to generation rather than age for example.

We have generations coming through with less asset and home ownership, which does seem to be linked with more right wing attitudes. That said, generic conservatism does increase with age.

[Dyson Fury]

4 hours ago, Shrink Proof said:

When it came to a vote it turned out that Lee Anderson voted for recall petitions on sitting MPs changing their party. I'm sure he'll be tendering his resignation later today...

Actually, as a Reform voter, I would have preferred him to resign and stand in a by-election.  Remember the two Conservative MPs who defected to UKIP in 2014 (Douglas Carswell in Clacton, and Mark Reckless in Rochester), both did that, and both won the by-elections for UKIP.   But Anderson rightly says that there might be a General Election as soon as May, and choosing the date of the by-election would be in the hands of the Government, so probably if he resigned Sunak would just leave the seat vacant for the time being.

Edited March 11 by Dyson Fury

[Dyson Fury]

Thoughtful article from Patrick O'Flynn (former UKIP MEP, now SDP):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/11/lee-anderson-defection/

https://archive.ph/2qCWW

Quote

Lee Anderson’s defection will damage the Tories more than they realise

Lee Anderson joining Reform UK is a huge development on the right of British politics – as big as Douglas Carswell defecting from the Conservatives to Ukip a decade ago.

Much of the Tory establishment will seek to play down the significance of what is a very major coup for Reform leader Richard Tice. Some of its members will try and depict Anderson as a preposterous figure not cut out for serious politics. But neither charge will ring true.

After all, Anderson is the “Red Wall Rottweiler” appointed by Rishi Sunak as a deputy chairman of the Conservatives precisely to try and help keep together the party’s winning 2019 electoral coalition...

Reform has not only added a very well-known new name to its top team, but now also has a parliamentary spokesman with a proven track record of being able to make headlines and connect with a substantial swathe of voters.

 

[Dyson Fury]

This article from 2014 is worth a read.  (After the defection of Carswell to UKIP, but before he retained his seat in the Clacton by-election).  At that time, the idea of Cameron actually losing his promised referendum was not being seriously considered.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11061671/Douglas-Carswells-defection-to-Ukip-could-mark-a-turning-point-in-politics.html

https://archive.ph/HQLlP

Quote

Ukip appeals not just to disaffected Tories, but to all who have lost trust in the major parties

Douglas Carswell’s defection to the UK Independence Party raises questions that are almost too numerous to count. Questions about the Conservative Party, about the general election, about future defections, about the role and responsibility of individual MPs to their constituents. But it raises one question that matters more than any other: what is Ukip?...

In private, Mr Cameron and his senior advisers admit that “bringing home” a significant number of Ukip supporters is a necessary, if not sufficient, condition for general election victory. But how to do that? The question has perplexed senior Tories for much of this Parliament.

Initially, the Conservative leadership concluded that the answer to Ukip lay in policies. The idea was that if Ukippers were unhappy with Government policy on Europe and immigration (and they are), then offer them tougher policies. Hence the Prime Minister’s decision to promise a referendum on EU membership, tighter immigration rules and the prospect of curbs on European migrants. This is, after all, how politics should work in a representative democracy: voters use their choice between parties to signal their desires and preferences; parties respond by trying to satisfy those demands.

Notably though, the policy-based response cut little ice with the Ukippers. Ukip poll numbers continued to rise. Mr Cameron unveiled his EU referendum promise last January. The following month, Ukip beat the Tories into third place in the Eastleigh by-election. Neither the referendum promise nor ever-tougher rhetoric on immigration prevented a Ukip victory in this year’s European elections....

So the Conservatives went looking for a new weapon to use against Nigel Farage and his followers. They found one, a silver bullet they believe will slay the Ukip beast forever. Its name is Ed Miliband. For if the Ukippers are simply traditional Right-wing Tories who have strayed from the fold, what better way to bring the lost sheep home than reminding them that by voting for Mr Farage, they risk ending up with a Labour Prime Minister? “Vote Nigel, Get Ed” will be the main Conservative message to potential Ukip voters between now and May [2015], especially in marginal constituencies....

But there is another explanation for Ukip, one that extends the party’s significance beyond the boundaries of the Conservative movement and into the way British politics is done. In this view, Ukip isn’t about Europe, or immigration, or any other policy. It’s about trust, and its absence. It’s about a political system dominated by politicians who look and sound the same regardless of party, who go to the same universities and follow the same career path to Westminster, where they implement policies that are fundamentally the same.

In this view, anger about Europe and immigration isn’t ultimately about the loss of sovereignty to Brussels or the arrival of foreigners in Britain. It’s about the feeling that politicians of all parties have allowed such things without listening to voters.

 

Edited March 11 by Dyson Fury

[Bob8]

1 minute ago, Dyson Fury said:

This article from 2014 is worth a read.  (After the defection of Carswell to UKIP, but before he retained his seat in the Clacton by-election).  At that time, the idea of Cameron actually losing his promised referendum was not being seriously considered.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11061671/Douglas-Carswells-defection-to-Ukip-could-mark-a-turning-point-in-politics.html

https://archive.ph/HQLlP

 

My  hesitation here is that was a clear thing UKIP to campaign for. A brexit referendum.

An issue Reform has is that this is less clear, so it can be seen as the angry man shouting at cloud. "Brexit has been rubbish" is not going to work, "the Tories are not Tory enough" will only work for a small group, that is (sorry for the term) the gammon section.