jevans Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Reform could be very important in the election, they may well end up being the large ratio of votes to seats every and make the case for PR, imagine 12-15% of votes cast being totally unrepresented in MPs. Also they can cost the tory many seats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jevans Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 But I don't think anyone who votes for the deserves representation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 11 minutes ago, staintunerider said: I like it ! But not sure about Cummings...remember he met Sunak twice...excerpt below...what shocked me (if true) about this was the joker Sunak saying he would take government seriously after the election....so does that mean up to now it's just been for laughs ? Sunak is a cretin.....as if he would make good on any promises...not a chance...he's weak in every respect... Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. “I said I was only prepared to build a political machine to smash Labour and win the election if he would commit to No 10 truly prioritising the most critical things, like the scandal of nuclear weapons infrastructure, natural and engineered pandemics, the scandal of MoD procurement, AI and other technological capabilities, and the broken core government institutions which we started fixing in 2020 but Boris [Johnson] abandoned.” Thing is the broken core govt institutions don't want to be fixed...so you need a Maggie type to deal with them....Sunak he couldnt blow the skin off a rice pudding Yeah interesting. However, that could be a bit of 4D chess on Cumming's part, that statement does huge damage to Sunak's already toilet-bowl-swirling credibility! What if Tice made a similar deal with Cummings? Not that anyone believes Reform could win a majority, but there's probably more chance of that than Cummings getting a Tory government to actually resolve some of the issues he highlighted - and I think he knows it! This could actually be a very interesting election for once! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowned Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I trust election calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html - predicting Reform will get 0 seats, or 5 at most. They are usually pretty good, but let's as how these figures change as the election gets closer - gut feel they will hurt the tories more than Labour - though they may do some 'red wall' damage to both parties. In most areas I bet they will lose their deposits... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Far Canal Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, Crowed said: I trust election calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html - predicting Reform will get 0 seats, or 5 at most. They are usually pretty good, but let's as how these figures change as the election gets closer - gut feel they will hurt the tories more than Labour - though they may do some 'red wall' damage to both parties. In most areas I bet they will lose their deposits... YouGov matches the election calculus numbers as of late December but is more up to date.... https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/YG_trackers_-_Voting_Intention_since_GE_2019_W_wiw9Gu1.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Latest Redfield & Wilton poll. Reform UK up to 14% in the Red Wall (40 ex-Labour seats won by the Tories in 2019). https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-30-31-january-2024/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 36 minutes ago, Dyson Fury said: Latest Redfield & Wilton poll. Reform UK up to 14% in the Red Wall (40 ex-Labour seats won by the Tories in 2019). https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-30-31-january-2024/ Now picked up by the Daily Mail. The comments seem to heavily support Reform as well. Alarm bells for Rishi Sunak as poll shows Reform UK hitting new high of 14% support in the Red Wall - and a FIFTH of 2019 Tory voters are backing the Nigel Farage-founded party https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13033977/Alarm-bells-Rishi-Sunak-poll-Reform-UK-new-high.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, fellow said: Now picked up by the Daily Mail. The comments seem to heavily support Reform as well. The tone of that Mail article is interesting. In recent weeks they have published some articles that are quite hostile to Reform as a Party ("voting Reform would be a wasted vote, just letting Starmer in with a bigger majority, Sunak is our only hope", etc) even though agreeing with the aims of many of their policies. The Daily Express, in contrast, seems to have at least one pro-Reform article every day, and seems very likely to declare in support of Reform when the election comes. The Telegraph also seems favourable towards Reform - though it would be truly astonishing if they recommended readers to vote for them in preference to the Conservatives. Things are getting very, very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Dyson Fury said: The tone of that Mail article is interesting. In recent weeks they have published some articles that are quite hostile to Reform as a Party ("voting Reform would be a wasted vote, just letting Starmer in with a bigger majority, Sunak is our only hope", etc) even though agreeing with the aims of many of their policies. The Daily Express, in contrast, seems to have at least one pro-Reform article every day, and seems very likely to declare in support of Reform when the election comes. The Telegraph also seems favourable towards Reform - though it would be truly astonishing if they recommended readers to vote for them in preference to the Conservatives. Things are getting very, very interesting. I don't even know what their policies are, nor do I care. I just want the Tories and Labour out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 hours ago, Dyson Fury said: Latest Redfield & Wilton poll. Reform UK up to 14% in the Red Wall (40 ex-Labour seats won by the Tories in 2019). https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-30-31-january-2024/ If labour want the redwall seats back Reform may hurt then too if they take any of these seats. Either way the MSM may have to report on the percentage of votes they get even if it results in no actual seat wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 I'd vote reform just to get rid of the Tories and Nulabour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 (edited) New poll of by the Conservative Post website of 2,086 people who were verified by CCHQ as being registered Conservative Party members in November 2022 when Rishi Sunak became leader. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1862948/tory-members-survey-rishi-sunak-reform Reform UK are top. Quote If an election was called today 50.48 percent of members would vote for Reform UK. 23.63 percent say they will vote Conservative at the next General Election if Rishi Sunak is still leader. Edited February 5 by Dyson Fury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The idea of the party is solid however their leader is a dick. Comes across as just another stooge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustAnotherProle Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Sour Mash said: The idea of the party is solid however their leader is a dick. Comes across as just another stooge. Like the whole car is a rusted death trap, the engine is barely held together but changing the driver makes it a Le Mans capable vehicle, the whole fundamental structure is the problem to anyone with any sense of reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/05/britain-on-brink-of-new-brexit-style-revolt/ https://archive.is/Dj56q Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HousePriceTooHigh Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 hours ago, Dyson Fury said: New poll of by the Conservative Post website of 2,086 people who were verified by CCHQ as being registered Conservative Party members in November 2022 when Rishi Sunak became leader. https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1862948/tory-members-survey-rishi-sunak-reform Reform UK are top. surely its game over if half of your own members are going to vote for another party?????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, HousePriceTooHigh said: surely its game over if half of your own members are going to vote for another party?????? I thought they were going to get a beating by Labour but it looks like they are going to get another hiding from Reform! It will be the best thing to ever happen to the Conservative Party viewed from the future.... In their current form they are akin to something you step in in the street! And I think that's being a bit unfair on something unpleasant you recoil from on your shoe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, HousePriceTooHigh said: surely its game over if half of your own members are going to vote for another party?????? Indeed. The Express article is not completely clear, it says that the people polled were verified Conservative Party members (as at Nov 2022), but elsewhere refers to them as "activists" i.e. the people who stand at high street stalls with leaflets, knock on doors canvassing when the election comes, give lifts to the polling station for known supporters who are in ill health, etc. Another finding of this poll was: Quote 90.10 percent will not be campaigning for the Conservative Party in the lead-up to the General Election if Rishi Sunak remains as Prime Minister. Remember that not only was Rishi Sunak not elected by the members of his Party to be Leader and Prime Minister, he was actually rejected by them in an open ballot, in favour of Liz Truss. Only to be imposed by the Parliamentary Party shortly afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1867547/poll-reform-rishi-sunak-general-election Quote Reform won 13% in Wellingborough and its 10.5% in Kingswood was enough to split the vote and allow Labour to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dyson Fury Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 https://www.politico.eu/article/british-politicians-ditch-tiktok-nigel-farage-move-in/ Quote When teenage boys are taking time away from creating football and "Call of Duty" videos to make memes in praise of a political party repped by a 59-year-old Brexiteer, you know something strange is happening. At first glance, the success of an insurgent party promising to shake up British politics on TikTok, a platform most popular with younger generations, might seem unremarkable.... ....Yet with almost 47,000 followers, nearly 600,000 likes and millions of video views, Reform UK is by far the most successful U.K. political party on the app. By comparison, the left-leaning Green Party has a following of 27,000 — but hasn't posted since late January. Its last two videos failed to break the 1,000 views mark. The governing Conservative Party, main opposition Labour Party and challenger Liberal Democrats don't even have official channels on the controversial app — with parody accounts the first to surface when users search for the big three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Labour won the two by-elections. WTF is wrong with people? Labour/Cons.... it's this two party state that's messed the UK up. Do people seriously think voting the Cons out but bringing Labour in is going to improve things? Are people seriously that blind? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Orb said: Labour won the two by-elections. WTF is wrong with people? Labour/Cons.... it's this two party state that's messed the UK up. Do people seriously think voting the Cons out but bringing Labour in is going to improve things? Are people seriously that blind? In fairness seemingly not. The Labour vote share remained static, there was no 'swing'....essentially the number of disillusioned has grown as the tory vote simply collapsed with a mild swing to reform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, Orb said: Labour won the two by-elections. WTF is wrong with people? Labour/Cons.... it's this two party state that's messed the UK up. Do people seriously think voting the Cons out but bringing Labour in is going to improve things? Are people seriously that blind? If you take a longer term view, no. If reform damage the tories, the tories will have to either fade away or change. That change may force labour to change too if the tories/reform are more electable. I suspect a newly elected labour gov will struggle from day 1 given the deep rooted problems they will face, so won't be an easy ride to GE29. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, nightowl said: If you take a longer term view, no. If reform damage the tories, the tories will have to either fade away or change. That change may force labour to change too if the tories/reform are more electable. I suspect a newly elected labour gov will struggle from day 1 given the deep rooted problems they will face, so won't be an easy ride to GE29. The change I'd expect is that all politicians, of all affiliations, will recognise that they should refuse to compete with each other for the approval of the public... because having authority without having to behave responsibly for half the time is better than having to behave responsibly all the time - even if that means keeping authority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Orb said: Labour won the two by-elections. WTF is wrong with people? Labour/Cons.... it's this two party state that's messed the UK up. Do people seriously think voting the Cons out but bringing Labour in is going to improve things? Are people seriously that blind? Have you ever spoken to a Labour voter? Most seem to support Labour like it's a football team. Ask them why and you get one of three answers: "Because I've always voted Labour". "Because my Dad supports Labour". "Because I would never vote for Tory scum". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.