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House Price Crash Forum

Ballyk

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About Ballyk

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  1. Population growth is a driver of demand and, relative to a fixed level of supply, it will cause the equilibrium price of housing to be higher. I cannot see how it is racist to say that population growth in London through immigration, movement from North to South or through higher birth rates, leads to higher demand and a higher clearing price for housing than would otherwise be the case. Having just relocated from London to Northern Ireland, I'm pleased to find a society with a much greater level of equality and a much higher standard of housing for regular people. There has been population growth here, but matched with a serious growth of quality housing stock over the past 20 years. NB no big house builders here, all small local builders.
  2. At least the Norwegian houses float as they are made of wood. I doubt most UK houses would.
  3. Note to anyone looking for a rent reduction, this is how Tesla did it - "The rapid world pandemic that is now affecting our country has led Tesla to make strategic decisions to ensure the company's long term success and growth," Tesla wrote to landlords, according to The Wall Street Journal. "As a result of the increasing restrictions on our ability to conduct business, we would like to inform you that we will be reducing our monthly rent obligations effective immediately."
  4. The New York Times has some excellent coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. All CV reporting has been excluded from the paywall. This article caught my attention - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/nyregion/coronavirus-landlords-eviction-tenants.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
  5. I predict volatility. The daily news flow will determine whether shares go up or down, possibly by quite a lot. I also reckon this crisis will go on for longer than the current consensus.
  6. It exists, but sadly no recent additions. Perhaps the breed is dying out.
  7. We're going to see a lot of people default on their PCP contracts > lots of cars repossessed > big fall in used car prices.
  8. New all time low - Market Summary > Foxtons Group PLC LON: FOXT 42.00 GBX −3.50 (7.69%) 17 Mar, 16:37 GMT · Disclaimer Happy St Paddy's Day!
  9. I'd expect the housing market to follow the stock market downward, but with a lag of about 9 months. So go ahead, but only if you want to lose a big chunk of equity.
  10. Maynard was his middle name, not part of his surname.
  11. Building more quality houses certainly will change things. In SE England, London and increasingly parts of SW England, with population growth and a fairly static housing stock, everyone has to 'budge up' and compromise. People in every socio economic group move into smaller and less attractive housing than their parents. That has been going on for decades, to the point that unless you inherit, experience massive economic upward mobility, or move to a gentrifying area, your quality of life will almost certainly be lower than the previous generation (in housing terms at least). In other areas, Northern Ireland for example because I know it, there has been a great deal of building quality houses, so the housing stock has pretty much kept up with population growth. This means that, should they wish to, most people can afford to live in the same houses and areas as their parents. Obviously some choose to move out from Belfast to the countryside, where a lot of high quality new houses have been built. This takes the pressure off established areas, so their prices have not got out of hand. Of course low interest rates mean that prices settle at a higher equilibrium price, as everywhere else, but 'average' people can still live in 'average' homes like their parents. Also, there are no very large housebuilders in Northern Ireland, instead there is meaningful competition on quality between smaller housebuilders. And there is no shortage of skilled people, who are often to be found working on high end projects in London. Also, not having Help to Buy has helped NI. It is worth taking a look at the NI property portals to see what I mean, www.propertypal.com and www.propertynews.com (NI property tends not to be listed on the main UK portals). NI has a more equal distribution of income and wealth (due partly to the undesirably enormous public sector), and there is not a huge disparity in house prices across the country. There are a couple of 'prime' areas, BT9, BT18 and parts of BT23 and BT34. But even these areas are not particularly special. Rents are generally exceptionally low for quality houses, due to the supply / demand relationship. 'Happiness' is also highest in NI of all regions, although not by as much as it was (possibly something to do with Brexit and not having a functioning devolved government). But having a decent home to live in greatly outweighs those factors. See - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/april2018tomarch2019
  12. Sorry to burst your bubble but this lot want low interest rates as much as anyone -
  13. Isn't the UK's private school system a major exporter of services? For the foreign currency they bring in alone, I would have thought it worth hanging onto them.
  14. My first preference would be a hard Brexit, with us determining the terms of trade with all other countries. If this is not achievable, then my second preference would be no Brexit at all. I don't think we would be better off by not being in Europe, but being dictated to by Europe which would be the case under a Theresa May type deal.
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