"Brexit has failed" - what happens next

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

David Davis went unchallenged on ITVs Robert Peston show this week.
Davis proclaimed that the value of EU trade had gone up since 2016 referendum from 300bn to 340bn (last year?). Assuming the figure is true, when 300bn in 2016 is now equivalent to 390bn inflation adjusted, that's surely a significant decline. Peston then said some shit about why hasn't that positive Brexit message got out there... What a berk!

 

[kzb]

20 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

David Davis went unchallenged on ITVs Robert Peston show this week.
Davis proclaimed that the value of EU trade had gone up since 2016 referendum from 300bn to 340bn (last year?). Assuming the figure is true, when 300bn in 2016 is now equivalent to 390bn inflation adjusted, that's surely a significant decline. Peston then said some shit about why hasn't that positive Brexit message got out there... What a berk!

 

I believe he is correct.  Trade now exceeds 2016, even adjusted for inflation.

There is also some report come out recently that says trade has not suffered like it was supposed to.  The minus 4% forecast was wrong.

Added in Edit:

UK Exports to EU:

Jan-Jun 2016 : £118.9bn

Jan-Jun 2023 : £180.2bn

The BoE inflation calculator gives a factor of 1.306, so there has been a real increase of 21%.

Edited November 8, 2023 by kzb

[onlooker]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

I believe he is correct.  Trade now exceeds 2016, even adjusted for inflation.

There is also some report come out recently that says trade has not suffered like it was supposed to.  The minus 4% forecast was wrong.

Added in Edit:

UK Exports to EU:

Jan-Jun 2016 : £118.9bn

Jan-Jun 2023 : £180.2bn

The BoE inflation calculator gives a factor of 1.306, so there has been a real increase of 21%.

https://order-order.com/page/5/

According to a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs, despite all the gloomy predictions by Remainers and the chaos tales associated with Brexit, EU-UK trade failed to show a “Brexit effect” between 2016 and 2020. UK goods exports had a notable 13.5% boost when heading to EU countries, and an impressive 14.3% increase for non-EU countries from 2019 to 2022.UK services exports posted a remarkable 14.8% rise to EU countries and an impressive 22.1% leap to non-EU countries during the same period.

The original report is here:

https://iea.org.uk/media/brexit-leaves-uk-trade-unscathed-finds-new-iea-report/

[Bob8]

43 minutes ago, onlooker said:

https://order-order.com/page/5/

According to a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs, despite all the gloomy predictions by Remainers and the chaos tales associated with Brexit, EU-UK trade failed to show a “Brexit effect” between 2016 and 2020. UK goods exports had a notable 13.5% boost when heading to EU countries, and an impressive 14.3% increase for non-EU countries from 2019 to 2022.UK services exports posted a remarkable 14.8% rise to EU countries and an impressive 22.1% leap to non-EU countries during the same period.

The original report is here:

https://iea.org.uk/media/brexit-leaves-uk-trade-unscathed-finds-new-iea-report/

The IEA are a political brexit and right wing pressure group and order-order is a pro-brexit website. This is hardly evidence, it is up there with HPC agreeing with the Institute for House Price Crashes

[jonb2]

11 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

The IEA are a political brexit and right wing pressure group and order-order is a pro-brexit website. This is hardly evidence, it is up there with HPC agreeing with the Institute for House Price Crashes

Thank you Bob. Beat me to it.

[onlooker]

57 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

The IEA are a political brexit and right wing pressure group and order-order is a pro-brexit website. This is hardly evidence, it is up there with HPC agreeing with the Institute for House Price Crashes

So the actual data quoted is wrong? Is that your argument?

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Bob8 said:

The IEA are a political brexit and right wing pressure group and order-order is a pro-brexit website. This is hardly evidence, it is up there with HPC agreeing with the Institute for House Price Crashes

try actually reading the thing Bob.  Then if you find anything factually incorrect you can tell us.  How about that for a strategy?

[Bob8]

9 hours ago, onlooker said:

So the actual data quoted is wrong? Is that your argument?

The paper will be propaganda. That is the job of the IEA. 

I am sure there are good strong pro-brexit arguments and I confess I wish they were made openly and honestly. I am sure thye have looked up real references, but so does Apreggio on the Covid thread. The IEA pretend to be something they are not.

We know that agriculture, pharma and car production are worse off for brexit, I would personally like to learn the industries that are benefitting, but this seem to be a secret.

[onlooker]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

The paper will be propaganda. That is the job of the IEA. 

I am sure there are good strong pro-brexit arguments and I confess I wish they were made openly and honestly. I am sure thye have looked up real references, but so does Apreggio on the Covid thread. The IEA pretend to be something they are not.

We know that agriculture, pharma and car production are worse off for brexit, I would personally like to learn the industries that are benefitting, but this seem to be a secret.

It is your right to ignore the data, but I think such an attitude undermines your argument, and suggests that you are just subscribing to a cult.

[Bob8]

1 minute ago, onlooker said:

It is your right to ignore the data, but I think such an attitude undermines your argument, and suggests that you are just subscribing to a cult.

I see. 

I would like to see the data, but in this case we are looking at a report from people specifically paid to make arguments. It would be like getting your medical advice from your email Spam folder. 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

It does make project fear look a bit silly.

There are more issues to it though than simple numbers. From what I remember the UK has still not implemented "proper" border controls on trade that you might expect from Brexit. So the figures may still be further affected.

I think the governments policy has been to drag out the transition over a long time to avoid step change. That coupled with covid has massively blurred the impact of Brexit. IMO we are seeing far more economic consequences as a result of US monetary policy changes/interest rate rises than we have done from Brexit.

Crouch was right.

[Bob8]

36 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

It does make project fear look a bit silly.

There are more issues to it though than simple numbers. From what I remember the UK has still not implemented "proper" border controls on trade that you might expect from Brexit. So the figures may still be further affected.

I think the governments policy has been to drag out the transition over a long time to avoid step change. That coupled with covid has massively blurred the impact of Brexit. IMO we are seeing far more economic consequences as a result of US monetary policy changes/interest rate rises than we have done from Brexit.

Crouch was right.

I would not quote "Lions Led by Donkeys" as the truth, I would not expect you to do the same with the IEA (though Onlooker is more expected). 

Equally, the Project Fear refers to when Osbourne said what would happen with the day after the referendum, the EU immediately with the Bank of England. Which was very hypothetical and not going to happen. Instead, the BofE did intervene and as you say, we are leaving step by step.

Back in 2016, I read a post on a rugby league forum that the impact would be negative (he was a remainer - so it can be argued) but crucially that it would not be so clear cut that either side would concede. Largely, that is accurate (we both agreed on the blaming too).

I am under fifty, and other than being white and male, I largely fit the profile of a Remainer. And I am which is no surprise. Crucially, I also work in the pharma industry, which is one of the industries bound to be worse off from pharma. I would have genuine interest in reports of industries that have benefitted, but all we get from both sides tends to be propaganda and inconclusive stats. (I say inconclusive more as they are not so clear cut that it is undeniable either way).

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

 

On 08/11/2023 at 16:56, kzb said:

I believe he is correct.  Trade now exceeds 2016, even adjusted for inflation. ...

No, it seems the figures that David Davis quoted (on Peston) are not fully inflation adjusted. But there are a lot of weeds, changing metrics and statistical meddling... Then there is the volume of trade verses the value of trade. Here is the supporting evidence I found. Like for like comparison is more difficult than I thought. It does appear that EU imports have fallen.

 

 

House of Commons Library

Statistics on UK-EU trade

Research Briefing

Published Thursday, 11 May, 2023

Summary

The UK left the EU single market and customs union at the end of 2020. Since then, UK trade with the EU has been governed by the Trade and Co-operation Agreement. While this allows tariff-free trade in goods between the UK and EU, trade barriers are higher than before.

Trade affected by Brexit and other factors

Analysing the impact of Brexit on UK trade is complicated by a number of issues. Other factors, such as the Covid pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have affected trade flows. This makes it difficult to disentangle the effects of Brexit from other factors. In addition, Brexit has meant changes to the way trade data is collected. These data issues mean caution is necessary in interpreting the trade data.

Short-term trends in trade with the EU

In 2022, the UK exported £340 billion of goods and services to the EU, 42% of total UK exports. The UK imported £432 billion from the EU, 48% of total UK imports. The UK had a trade deficit of £92 billion with the EU compared to a £5 billion surplus with non-EU countries.

Total UK exports (goods and services combined) to both the EU and non-EU countries were lower than their 2019 level in both 2020 and 2021. In both cases, exports exceeded 2019 levels in 2022. These figures are in current prices so are not adjusted for inflation. This needs to be borne in mind given current high levels of inflation. Underlying trends may also have been distorted by exports of precious metals to non-EU countries.

Similarly, imports of goods and services from both EU and non-EU countries have now exceeded 2019 levels, in current prices.

Data on trade in goods is available in real terms (ie adjusted to take account of inflation) and adjusted to exclude precious metals. This data shows UK goods exports to the EU remain below 2019 levels. Imports of goods from the EU were 1.4% higher in 2022 than in 2019 but changes to data collection methods mean it is advisable to be cautious in putting too much weight on this figure.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/#:~:text=In 2022%2C the UK exported,48% of total UK imports.
 

 

 

 

UK Perspectives 2016: Trade with the EU and beyond

25 May 2016

In 2015, 44% of the UK's goods and services were exported to the EU, while 53% of our imports came to the UK from the EU.

In the same year, UK exports to the EU were valued at £223.3 billion, while UK imports from the EU stood at £291.1 billion.

For countries outside the EU, UK exports that year were valued at £288.2 billion, while imports were worth £257.1 billion.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/ukperspectives2016tradewiththeeuandbeyond/2016-05-25#:~:text=In the same year%2C UK,were worth £257.1 billion.
 

 

https://www.itv.com/watch/peston/2a4458/2a4458a0305

At the end 44m 40s:

Edited November 9, 2023 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
add detail

[kzb]

2 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

No, it seems the figures that David Davis quoted (on Peston) are not fully inflation adjusted.

I never said that the figures Davis used were adjusted for inflation.  I did however look up the inflation factor since 2016 and it is less than the growth in exports.

2 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

But there are a lot of weeds, changing metrics and statistical meddling..

You're not wrong there.  For one thing, goods that we imported from outside the EU and then sold on to EU countries used to be counted as UK->EU exports.  But under the rules of origin, now they are not.  As an example, this applies to oranges.  But the trade is still continuing but it is not counted as a UK export.

2 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Here is the supporting evidence I found.

I don't think anything in that contradicts what I said, which is UK exports (total, including services) are up since 2016.

PS -if you want to see a country suffering post-Brexit, you need to look at Germany.

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by kzb

[Brendan110_0]

21 hours ago, onlooker said:

It is your right to ignore the data, but I think such an attitude undermines your argument, and suggests that you are just subscribing to a cult.

I do not have access to the same choice of goods at my supermarkets that I used to have prior to Brexit, that is a fact. 

[debtlessmanc]

The one area I know well, academia is interesting as it is undoubtedly the one which screamed the hardest about the horrors of a potential Brexit. Yet I see nothing changing, especially as we now are back in horizon 2020. Yesterday I asked head of admissions about EU students, apparently we are back to the same numbers as before Brexit but they are paying £30k a year not £9k (unbelievable I know but true apparently). Anecdotally some eu staff have left but not the ones I speak too. Only the other day a French colleague was complaining about the right to remain etc but when asked if he would go back it was straightforward “ what and halve my wages forget it”. one German prof i know said was leaving because of it, he is now in Australia so I am not sure it is a endorsement of the EU

In most of southern Europe and France academia is in a poor state, these countries just cannot afford the systems they have. It was telling that when three French people won the Nobel for physics this year none of them were working in France, the system there cannot reward success financially.

 

[kzb]

3 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

The one area I know well, academia is interesting as it is undoubtedly the one which screamed the hardest about the horrors of a potential Brexit. Yet I see nothing changing, especially as we now are back in horizon 2020. Yesterday I asked head of admissions about EU students, apparently we are back to the same numbers as before Brexit but they are paying £30k a year not £9k (unbelievable I know but true apparently). Anecdotally some eu staff have left but not the ones I speak too. Only the other day a French colleague was complaining about the right to remain etc but when asked if he would go back it was straightforward “ what and halve my wages forget it”. one German prof i know said was leaving because of it, he is now in Australia so I am not sure it is a endorsement of the EU

In most of southern Europe and France academia is in a poor state, these countries just cannot afford the systems they have. It was telling that when three French people won the Nobel for physics this year none of them were working in France, the system there cannot reward success financially.

 

I read somewhere that the UK university international rankings had actually improved recently, and we are head and shoulders above any EU country.  There has been no crash due to Brexit as was likely forecast.

Anyhow, why would anyone flounce off purely as a reaction to the Brexit vote?  These are meant to be intelligent people.  It seems to me if they were happy with their position prior to the vote, nothing has changed for them due to Brexit, so what is problem?

In fact you could argue that their UK careers are more secure, because it is theoretically harder for EUers to compete with them in the future (although I suspect this is not happening in practice).

 

[Huggy]

9 minutes ago, kzb said:

I read somewhere that the UK university international rankings had actually improved recently

I took a look at Ben Shapiro's recent talks at the Oxford Union and then the Cambridge version after. I can see Oxford dropping down those rankings hard.

I don't know if it was just the students they had in the audience, or (and I think this is more likely) if it's the types the colleges look for, but the Oxford one went exactly as you would expect.

Cambridge had some of the usual suspects there, but it was generally very well conducted.

[kzb]

49 minutes ago, Huggy said:

I took a look at Ben Shapiro's recent talks at the Oxford Union and then the Cambridge version after. I can see Oxford dropping down those rankings hard.

I don't know if it was just the students they had in the audience, or (and I think this is more likely) if it's the types the colleges look for, but the Oxford one went exactly as you would expect.

Cambridge had some of the usual suspects there, but it was generally very well conducted.

2023 ranking

Cambridge is #2 in the word, Oxford #4, and it does appear that Cambridge has overtaken Oxford since last year.

Highest ranked EU university is Universite PSL (Paris) at #26.

There are zero EU universities in the top 20, UK has 5.

[Confusion of VIs]

UK Breaks Off Free Trade Talks With Canada on Lack of Progress

It turns out that the UK cannot leave the EU and keep the EU trade deal.  

[pig]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

UK Breaks Off Free Trade Talks With Canada on Lack of Progress

It turns out that the UK cannot leave the EU and keep the EU trade deal.  

But we hold all the cards ? ! 

"

THAT.

IS.

A.

DIS

-GRACE !!!

"

[Confusion of VIs]

The Brexit fails are coming thick and fast now and ironically impacting the groups that most believed in it the hardest. 

Before the vote Farrage claimed that Leaving would protect our steel industry, our fishing industry and our farmers. The reality has turned out rather differently:

with Tata ending Virgin steel making in the UK, while modernising their EU based operations. 

 

UK Farmers protesting against our post Brexit trade deals, even before the real opening up of our markets to Oz and NZ farmers happens.   

 

And our fishermen realising the cost of all the non tariff barriers we have imposed upon ourselves

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

The bigger picture is turning out even worse than "project fear"  (i.e. project reality) predicted.

 

Brexit vote has left U.K.’s economy 5% worse off, Goldman Sachs economists say

FT:  Four years on and Brexit still isn’t ‘done’ Costs are rising and the UK is becoming a less attractive supply chain partner

I had a quick Google/AI search to try and find an independent forecaster that thought Brexit was going well. There doesn't seem to be any, just various shades of bad with more damage to come.

Mark Carney is predicting that by the time we level out the UK will have lost 10% of its GDP. 

The question now, for everybody except probably kzb, is not has Brexit failed; it is what can be done to avoid or minimise any further damage.    

 

  

 

[Confusion of VIs]

Looks like we now have the sovereign right to do what we are told

British parks could lose their swings because of EU health and safety rules 

Comments are quite amusing 

Top 2 are 

 Perhaps the Beer Councilors need to swing....

I don't believe swings are dangerous. Kids need to toughen up we could be headed for WW3.

#Ruletakernotmaker

 

[kzb]

On 15/02/2024 at 00:00, Confusion of VIs said:

The question now, for everybody except probably kzb, is not has Brexit failed; it is what can be done to avoid or minimise any further damage.    

Is that "damage" you are talking about, damage to Germany ?  Because they seem to be doing a lot worse than us.