Nationwide Nov -1.4%

[highcontrast]

Crashy Crashy.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

 

Watching the Establishment trying to blame it all on the Truss/KK phuqstorm - does anyone know what % pre/post Truss shyte shower?

[Maghull Mike]

Well, this is going to put a spring in my step

The Excuses will flow:- Weather/Putin/CC etc.........but this is it.

Anyone wanting to buy now knows to simply wait & save money!!!!!!!!!!!

Mike

[sta100]

17 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Indeed. A perfect storm that means I haven't been as confident of an HPC since 2008. We also have an exciting opportunity to see if savings > debt. I think they might be.

I still have a c2 year buying horizen, but then that's going to fall around a general election where everyone will be offering HPI. Tough call whether to jump in early should something pop up at the right price.

Hmm... maybe Labour will revitalise their "No more boom and bust" mantra 

[Bruce Banner]

24 minutes ago, Huggy said:

The Fed, the only rate setters that matter, couldn't give a flying feck about UK HPI

Bailey only needs to get inflation down by 85% in order to successfully do his job. I don't believe HPI is part of that, but he might call it part of the 'stability' thing that the bank is tasked with. ie any excuse to widen the gap between US and UK rates.

But, it doesn't really matter if the Fed keep pumping! He'll need to.

Or he might just do what he's told by the ex GS banker who is responsible for appointing the governor of the "independent" BoE.

[Former postman]

57 minutes ago, 17clarence said:

He immediately followed this up with falling property prices would be devastating to the economy as people spend depending on how rich they feel with the equity in their house, and then we must not talk about falling prices.

I must be doing it wrong... I spend depending on my plans, my needs and the balance in my bank account.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Postman

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

BOOM!!!!

 

[LetsBuild]

Halifax figures out on Weds, this is going to be a constant trickle of house prices falling in the news now.

[suresh786]

57 minutes ago, TBC said:

I'm dead chuffed things might be reverting to sanity.

Our house, bought in Jan 2021 has (allegedly) increased in value by 30% since then. I'm fully expecting it to lose that 30% now. Our 5 year fix (74% LTV) has 3 more years to run. When we come to remortgage we'll have paid off £50k and saved another £30k (earning higher IR) ready to pay off lump sum. 

Why not sell now and re-buy afterwards

[Blobsy]

Tears incoming…

For some, of misery.

For others, of joy.

 

[hurlerontheditch]

[mynamehere]

17 minutes ago, suresh786 said:

Why not sell now and re-buy afterwards

Probably because it’s a home not a day trading account 

[mynamehere]

Is it possible to know the average interest rate or anything like that?

[LetsBuild]

13 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Look at that 2012/2014 rise in the bottom right graph, that’s HTB and it’s coming straight out again, irrespective of rates, recession, fuel costs etc.

[hurlerontheditch]

from the BBC:

Quote

Recent data has been pointing to a sharp slowdown in the housing market. Earlier this week, the Bank of England said the number of mortgages approved in October fell to its lowest level since June 2020.

The next few months could be "something of a nightmare" for the housing market, according to Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

She said that we were "not seeing anything like the full impact" of the mini-budget in Nationwide's figures, as on average it takes about three months to complete a sale.

As a result, the latest data is likely "to include only around a week of sales agreed after mortgage chaos was unleashed. Even at that point, sales being settled were highly likely to have been funded by mortgages agreed well before everything kicked off, so all we're seeing is the effect of a sudden and possibly catastrophic loss of confidence."

She added that while mortgage rates have since dipped, and are expected to fall further, "the damage may well have been done".

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The haters hate and the doubters doubt...while the thinkers think.

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Maghull Mike]

Making the news

https://news.sky.com/story/house-price-falls-accelerate-as-impact-from-september-mini-budget-dominates-12759164

[scottbeard]

Good news for the young people of the UK who, in a few years' time, might have the chance to buy the house that they ought to have been able to buy years ago.

[rantnrave]

6 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said:

Making the news

https://news.sky.com/story/house-price-falls-accelerate-as-impact-from-september-mini-budget-dominates-12759164

While I welcome the falls, I wish the analysis explaining them was much more rigorous. Current MSM narrative seems to be 'if only it wasn't for that pesky mini budget, house prices would still be soaring now...'

[BorrowToLeech]

51 minutes ago, Postman said:

I must be doing it wrong... I spend depending on my plans, my needs and the balance in my bank account.

The wealth effect of housing (that increased house prices lead to increased spending as people feel richer) is a myth that has been debunked.

My favourite piece of evidence for this was a paper showing that increased house prices led to a wealth effect for non-home owners, which is clearly stupid. 

The myth comes from the fact that increases in the availability of credit lead to both increased spending and increased house prices. So there is definitely a correlation, but it is not a causal effect.

In fact the population as a whole consumes almost all the housing it owns, by living in it. We aren’t, on aggregate, ‘long’ housing (there’s no significant surplus we could, say, export) and so we don’t get richer when houses become more expensive. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by BorrowToLeech

[msi]

1 hour ago, 17clarence said:

GBN had some property expert on saying the falls were irrelevant as only very few people were in the housing market at any moment in time, and 40% of property wasn’t mortgaged.

He immediately followed this up with falling property prices would be devastating to the economy as people spend depending on how rich they feel with the equity in their house, and then we must not talk about falling prices.

Ah Gbeebies, the FreE SpEeCh channel telling us what we must not talk about.

Irony indeed

 

[slawek]

39 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Still early days.

[desiringonlychild]

19 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Good news for the young people of the UK who, in a few years' time, might have the chance to buy the house that they ought to have been able to buy years ago.

The ones who have a family home to boomerang back to. Apparently 1 in 4 private renters under the age of 35 are planning to move back home or are going to in the next year. Meanwhile rents have still increased 20% in 1 year and that shows no signs of abating.

[msi]

1 hour ago, suresh786 said:

Why not sell now and re-buy afterwards

There was talk of 'Sell to Rent' after GFC, but those folk got shafted as prices jumped thanks to the Tories f*ckwittery and mountains of QE. 

[scottbeard]

12 minutes ago, slawek said:

Still early days.

Well, yes.

But you have to go through the early days to get to the later days, and up to now we haven't even been there.

However, the moment the Titanic hit the iceberg its sinking was an unstoppable mathematical certainty.  The fact it didn't sink very far in the first 10 minutes isn't really that relevant.