Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, henry the king said:

Any restrictions or even fear of covid will cause a huge recession. Look at all these companies like BA, EasyJet, hospitality, even just shops on the high street, football clubs, and many more. They will all be crushed and out of business because our economy is very much based on consumers and services linked to that. 

We could see a complete collapse in demand across multiple industries. And no lockdown imposed by the government will not matter, like you say we can't afford furlough so they won't force a lockdown, but people will stop spending anyway.

Then everyone out of jobs and we get a recession and huge falls in asset prices

Holidays and hospitality- yes I agree not good news for them. 

People deciding to give the cinema a miss this month due to Covid isn’t going to destroy the economic world as we know it or drive Bitcoin to $5k within weeks.

[henry the king]

3 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Holidays and hospitality- yes I agree not good news for them. 

People deciding to give the cinema a miss this month due to Covid isn’t going to destroy the economic world as we know it or drive Bitcoin to $5k within weeks.

Everything has knock on effects. You see a collapse in demand as people are scared and hiding at home and you get less of everything. That is how a broad recession will happen. And this could easily cause it. All asset prices are just out of whack with reality currently, crypto is the ultimate risk asset, hence why I mentioned it. But they are all in the same state, housing included. When a broad recession hits, and this variant is fairly likely to cause it as the room for stimulus is minimal, then everything goes down by association. 

The first areas to be hit would be holidays/hospitality, but them going down will have knock-on effects. In particular if people get too scared to spend.

They essentially erased the impact of covid with the stimulus. They can't do that again to the same level.

Edited November 26, 2021 by henry the king

[pig]

2 hours ago, gruffydd said:

I have put together my report for the bosses on risk and Covid - Europe/N America seem to have got it completely wrong... by suppressing death and serious illness while letting infection rates rise (UK and USA in particular), they have increased the risk that this cycle never stops... high infection rates = high risk of mutation (plus higher ongoing health issues and costs associated primarily with neurological damage from Long Covid - the direct health related economic risk). 

France and Italy perhaps doing better than most in Europe because they have tougher controls on transmission. The UK and USA are off the scale stupid in terms of approach. 

Of course the British Government will say we don't understand what risk super variants pose, or how likely they are, so why reduce transmission. I think we have our answer. They are just idiots. 

Its best to have a full spectrum of tools available to tackle the disease.

We've mucked up almost everything other than vaccine procurement. And thats happened from a mixture of corruption, incompetence or ideological weirdness.

However the government have been fast to react to the variant news this time. Thats never happened before. Either they've simply learnt and/or have been made keenly aware by their CMO's that that their choice of a laissez faire / herd immunity approach had no room for manoeuvre.

Decent health control at borders, track and trace, properly funded and equipped NHS etc are all needed to help slow the path of a disruptive variant and buy us time.

Be interesting to see what NZ does now as they were due to open up...

 

[pig]

14 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Holidays and hospitality- yes I agree not good news for them. 

People deciding to give the cinema a miss this month due to Covid isn’t going to destroy the economic world as we know it or drive Bitcoin to $5k within weeks.

I dunno - all those micro decisions add up. I've been tasked with sorting out a Christmas dinner for friends and I'm already trying to think of places that the more nervous will be happy with going to should the 'atmosphere' have changed in a couple of weeks...

[Flat Bear]

43 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

You don't get it - the virus is still spreading amongst the vaccinated because the vaccines are 'leaky' and concentrate on a small part of the total signature of the virus unlike much more effective natural immunity.  The antibodies produced also seem to be very short lived, again compared to longer-lived antibodies produced naturally.  Then there is the question of how effective the resulting T-Cell immunity is with the vaccines.  AZ looks to be better than Pfizer in this regard  but of course Pfizer own all the right people so that is now pretty much the only game in town.  Natural immunity likely a lot better than either.

  The vaccinated population is where the more dangerous mutations will come from which will get better and better at evading the vaccine-provided immunity.

 

 

     

Yes, I think this is quite obvious, but we do not seem to have enough "experts" telling us this.

Ideally get double Jabbed and then catch it, is probably the best. This is what has happened to me, although I found it worse than most other people I know.

I have been contacted to get a "booster". What's the point? 

As you say, I will have a much better protection than those who have not been naturally infected especially against variants.

Information is sketchy but officially only 10 million people have caught covid in the UK. It is estimated that only 1 in 4 cases are officially reported so around 60% of people have so far had natural infection. At around 50,000 people officially catching covid daily that would be around 200,000 actual it will take around 5 months at the same rate for nearly everyone to be exposed.

There has not been enough research done on natural infection and how it affects our immune system and how this handles re-infections and variants. There is too much vested interest in the vaccines.                               

 

[henry the king]

4 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

     

Yes, I think this is quite obvious, but we do not seem to have enough "experts" telling us this.

Ideally get double Jabbed and then catch it, is probably the best. This is what has happened to me, although I found it worse than most other people I know.

I have been contacted to get a "booster". What's the point? 

As you say, I will have a much better protection than those who have not been naturally infected especially against variants.

Information is sketchy but officially only 10 million people have caught covid in the UK. It is estimated that only 1 in 4 cases are officially reported so around 60% of people have so far had natural infection. At around 50,000 people officially catching covid daily that would be around 200,000 actual it will take around 5 months at the same rate for nearly everyone to be exposed.

There has not been enough research done on natural infection and how it affects our immune system and how this handles re-infections and variants. There is too much vested interest in the vaccines.                               

 

Yup, best thing you can do is get jabbed and then try and get it basically. Then you will have a broader immune response and be safer from variants too as you will have seen the whole virus not just some spike. 

Even with this new thing its a good idea to try and get it probably, because the 1-2 after this will be even worse for us to recognise if we only had the jabs

[reddog]

 

35 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Yup, best thing you can do is get jabbed and then try and get it basically. Then you will have a broader immune response and be safer from variants too as you will have seen the whole virus not just some spike. 

Even with this new thing its a good idea to try and get it probably, because the 1-2 after this will be even worse for us to recognise if we only had the jabs

I guess it will be 4th Jab incoming for this variant.

 

Then maybe they will start working on another part of the virus as the spike protein doesn't seem to be ideal.  So 5th jab after that.  It's never ending!!

Edited November 26, 2021 by reddog

[HovelinHove]

With archived T-cell response to the original version due to vaccination or aquired immunity, let it spread. Fatality rate will probably be about 0.1-0.2%...aka similar to normal flu. Time to move on.

[Speed1987]

2 hours ago, Clarky Cat said:

I would love this, but from years of being on HPC I think it's more likely some aliens from a close galaxy will land having heard of our problems with covid variants and take out BTL mortgages to keep the market propped up. 

😂😂😂

I agree, it's more likely.

[Trump Invective]

Interest rates to -10% 

[slawek]

4 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

You don't get it - the virus is still spreading amongst the vaccinated because the vaccines are 'leaky' and concentrate on a small part of the total signature of the virus unlike much more effective natural immunity.  The antibodies produced also seem to be very short lived, again compared to longer-lived antibodies produced naturally.  Then there is the question of how effective the resulting T-Cell immunity is with the vaccines.  AZ looks to be better than Pfizer in this regard  but of course Pfizer own all the right people so that is now pretty much the only game in town.  Natural immunity likely a lot better than either.

  The vaccinated population is where the more dangerous mutations will come from which will get better and better at evading the vaccine-provided immunity.

 

 

It is true that vaccines don't provide 100% protection but neither natural immunity. From many studies I read natural immunity is not as good as the one produced by vaccines. 

Please send links to studies confirming your claims.

Edited November 26, 2021 by slawek

[Gbob]

I can't believe they've actually called this variant Omicron.

Sounds like a silicon valley software company from the 90s. 

Unless you say it in a sinister voice stressing the O like omega, then it sounds like a baddy from Thunder Cats.  

Edited November 26, 2021 by Glenn

[henry the king]

2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

With archived T-cell response to the original version due to vaccination or aquired immunity, let it spread. Fatality rate will probably be about 0.1-0.2%...aka similar to normal flu. Time to move on.

Seems likely. This thing won't make vaccines useless. We aren't back to square 1. But look what "square 3" is like in europe. If we go to "square 2" where it spreads loads and only has a 0.25% mortality then its still really bad at a society level. 

Edited November 26, 2021 by henry the king

[Dweller]

5 hours ago, henry the king said:

Honestly, imagine this is bad. The central banks can't act due to already very high inflation. Governments are out of cash and central banks are close to what they can credibly do on QE.

It is potentially the perfect storm.

We could see an epic HPC and a HUGE recession because of this.

I have been asking this Q for ages about what will happen if the inevitable happens and a new strain gets around a vaccine that 'teaches' immune systems (that naturally recognise 28 proteins)  how to recognise one spike! 

Of course the answer is going to be MORE VACCINES but this is going to take time and this particular strain sounds like it is going to be complex to address. 

The UK nearly went broke in March 2020 but the BOE printed and  calmed the markets but this isn't going to work next time is it? And how can the UK  afford more furlough? 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/britain-nearly-went-bust-in-march-says-bank-of-england

[Dweller]

4 hours ago, Locke said:

NO. Just like with antibiotics it's the people who aren't taking the treatment who are placing us all in danger!

I think they were saying the mutations like Kent and Nu have probably emerged in immunocompromised people who have been fully vaccinated and then caught the virus. As their systems are weak the virus stays within the body for a long time and mutates. As for "just like with antibiotics"  , you may or may not know about the emergence of superbugs due to the over use of antibiotics, thus it probably wasn't  a brilliant idea to mass vaccinate whole populations to 'teach' immune systems to recognise one spike protein (as opposed to the 28 the body naturally recognises without being 'taught') as this just opens wide the door for a vaccine resistant mutants which will at the very least place the vaccinated vulnerable in a precarious position. 

[Roman Roady]

4 hours ago, Locke said:

Mortality is like 0.6% overall and 0.05% for under 70s

Quite.

They've thrown the kitchen sink at this and nature is still winning. Its time to let it do what its going to do, at least the survivors (99% of us) will all be able to move on.

Time to let go of the dead wood, this is the opportunity the younger generation have been waiting for.

[Dweller]

3 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Quite.

They've thrown the kitchen sink at this and nature is still winning. Its time to let it do what its going to do, at least the survivors (99% of us) will all be able to move on.

Time to let go of the dead wood, this is the opportunity the younger generation have been waiting for.

Under your plan  I guess the vulnerable/elderly etc would have to die alone at home  ... 

I don't know what the answer is. I can see that lockdowns are not the solution for the vast majority of people who were never at risk from the virus. 

I guess I did think that the Gt Barrington Declaration (don't know much about it ) sounded like a reasonable idea with focussed protection. Trouble is the elderly were up in arms last time at the idea that they would have to stay at home, thus they would rather see their great grandchildren vaccinated  with vaccines that don't stop transmission !!

 

[henry the king]

31 minutes ago, Dweller said:

I have been asking this Q for ages about what will happen if the inevitable happens and a new strain gets around a vaccine that 'teaches' immune systems (that naturally recognise 28 proteins)  how to recognise one spike! 

Of course the answer is going to be MORE VACCINES but this is going to take time and this particular strain sounds like it is going to be complex to address. 

The UK nearly went broke in March 2020 but the BOE printed and  calmed the markets but this isn't going to work next time is it? And how can the UK  afford more furlough? 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/britain-nearly-went-bust-in-march-says-bank-of-england

Yeh they would have no way out if what is required is a full lockdown. Who knows what would happen. It would be a disaster though. They set a precedent of lockdowns which cannot be sustained.

[Roman Roady]

3 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Yeh they would have no way out if what is required is a full lockdown. Who knows what would happen. It would be a disaster though. They set a precedent of lockdowns which cannot be sustained.

We've been there and done that; it hasn't worked. What was Einsteins definition of insanity again?

[Dweller]

13 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

We've been there and done that; it hasn't worked. What was Einsteins definition of insanity again?

Answer: Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate (like in Israel) and expect it to finally work....?

 

[btd1981]

13 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

We've been there and done that; it hasn't worked. What was Einsteins definition of insanity again?

Lockdowns do work, when adhered to. Cases have never continued to increase during lockdown, bar the initial overshoot. They've always come right down again. It's the exits from lockdowns that have been problematic.

[Roman Roady]

1 minute ago, btd1981 said:

Lockdowns do work, when adhered to. Cases have never continued to increase during lockdown, bar the initial overshoot. They've always come right down again. It's the exits from lockdowns that have been problematic.

Then why after nearly 2 years are we all commenting on this thread? It should all be in the past.

[Dweller]

Just now, btd1981 said:

Lockdowns do work, when adhered to. Cases have never continued to increase during lockdown, bar the initial overshoot. They've always come right down again. It's the exits from lockdowns that have been problematic.

Exits unfortunately have to happen which perhaps equals "lockdowns do not work" . 
They do get numbers in hospital down low enough for the NHS to cope. 
I don't know what the answer is. 
Can't keep everyone locked down forever. 
Back to the Gt Barrington idea of locking down the vulnerable /elderly and letting everyone else get on with life and get it. I haven't seen that report for a while but didn't the authors think that within 3 months there would be herd immunity? 
Can't see the elderly being very happy about another lockdown they would be SCREAMING out again about people being ageist! 
 

[btd1981]

3 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Then why after nearly 2 years are we all commenting on this thread? It should all be in the past.

Because we keep exiting lockdown and the virus is let rip.  The setpoint the policymakers are trying to manage is NHS bed utilisation. If we didn't lockdown then mortality rates would have been even higher with people dying in corridors, ambulances and Wetherspoons.

[Dweller]

4 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Then why after nearly 2 years are we all commenting on this thread? It should all be in the past.

Could be that vaccinating the masses that were never that much at risk has slowed the whole process of finally being able to simply get  on with our lives.