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Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.


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59 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

A very good explainer
https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1463952838565023755
 

Direct from South Africa
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna

Far better than reading the pretty atrocious media commentary over here, which is behind the curve as per usual. 

 

Good link. Cheers

 

doesn’t look good 

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3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

A very good explainer
https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1463952838565023755
 

Direct from South Africa
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna

Far better than reading the pretty atrocious media commentary over here, which is behind the curve as per usual. 

 

Thanks for that - there is a Times article that mentions the proxy confirmation but in less detail.

 

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9 hours ago, gruffydd said:

A very good explainer
https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1463952838565023755
 

Direct from South Africa
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna

Far better than reading the pretty atrocious media commentary over here, which is behind the curve as per usual. 

 

 

The one thing I will note on the Twitter thread is a lot of requests for financial support. Does make me wonder?

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21 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

The one thing I will note on the Twitter thread is a lot of requests for financial support. Does make me wonder?

They could have just stayed quiet about it so that their economy didn't take a hit while the ROW got infected. Would have have made you wonder any less??

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Based on two HK cases this variant evades the Pfizer vaccine, produces high viral loads and is airborne. Not sure how credible is this guy and how much we can infer from the small sample size but if what he is saying is true this doesn't look good. 

The market doesn't like this. 

 

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6 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

What's wrong? Not enough vitamin D going around in South Africa this November? I'm sure one of @Mikhail Liebenstein or @Grayphil will pop along shortly and remind everyone that this was all over in Summer 2020 as their expertise (in sales and sails) clearly predicted. 🤡

Good line, you had me nearly wetting myself with laughter.

Anyway, back to the original thought of your post, I maintain it is the vaccines coupled with deadwood dodgy immune systems that are keeping this panic going.

If we'd taken some deaths and natural immunity on the chin, it would all be over by now. As said, my household recently had a Covid outbreak, but other than the kids being sent home from school due to a fellow pupil testing positive and needing a test to go back, no one would have noticed. Not even a sniffle, so as far as I am concerned there is no pandemic.

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I suspect if it's that widespread its here already. Not like shutting down flights etc would help anyway, look how delta managed to get everywhere.

I think it's just a case of hoping the vaccine/previous infection reduces hospitalisation. High cases doesn't necessarily have to be a big worry

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5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Good line, you had me nearly wetting myself with laughter.

Anyway, back to the original thought of your post, I maintain it is the vaccines coupled with deadwood dodgy immune systems that are keeping this panic going.

If we'd taken some deaths and natural immunity on the chin, it would all be over by now. As said, my household recently had a Covid outbreak, but other than the kids being sent home from school due to a fellow pupil testing positive and needing a test to go back, no one would have noticed. Not even a sniffle, so as far as I am concerned there is no pandemic.

And 400k deaths as the virus would spread before any vaccine available. I guess it was no event in your family because you are vaccinated. 

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10 hours ago, andrewwk said:

tbh this variant may well already be circulating in the UK given the level of travel between SA and the UK

 

10 hours ago, andrewwk said:

tbh this variant may well already be circulating in the UK given the level of travel between SA and the UK

Yes, over 500 passengers arrive a day.......but then again it will get here via a third country eventually.

10 hours ago, andrewwk said:

given the experience thus far, guess it was only a matter of time before a new, problematic variant arose...

This is a known fact, a variant mutation made here or any other place in the world, we are all vulnerable. A greater good and responsible reason to wear a face covering inside where there are other people.;)

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49 minutes ago, slawek said:

Based on two HK cases this variant evades the Pfizer vaccine, produces high viral loads and is airborne. Not sure how credible is this guy and how much we can infer from the small sample size but if what he is saying is true this doesn't look good. 

The market doesn't like this. 

 

I think we've known it's likely airborne right from the original wild-type strain. That's why it's virtually impossible to stop people catching it in hospitals when there's high community prevalence. SARS also showed evidence of airborne spread - even between different buildings. 

I'd also remark that the case on the twitter thread was vaccinated nearly 6 months ago - and plenty of people are getting breakthrough infections with Delta within that kind of timeframe, so not unique.

Again the question is going to be whether breakthrough infections with this new variant are more likely to cause severe disease. If we still retain 90-95% protection from this with vaccination or recent infection then it should be manageable.

If it is truly much more infectious and vaccine resistant then the best case scenario would be that it's mutated to develop more affinity for the ACE2 receptor in the upper airways and hence become more of a cold than a viral pneumonia.

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6 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

I think we've known it's likely airborne right from the original wild-type strain. That's why it's virtually impossible to stop people catching it in hospitals when there's high community prevalence. SARS also showed evidence of airborne spread - even between different buildings. 

It is also possible that the virus was carried from one room to another by a third person. 

8 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

I'd also remark that the case on the twitter thread was vaccinated nearly 6 months ago - and plenty of people are getting breakthrough infections with Delta within that kind of timeframe, so not unique.

I don't think 6 months is some threshold timeframe. The immunity drops in continuous manner in time. There is a lot variation in quality of immunity obtained by vaccination from a person to a person due to genetics, health and randomness of immunity building mechanism. We need more data to draw any conclusion if this variant escapes immunity on the population level.  

13 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

Again the question is going to be whether breakthrough infections with this new variant are more likely to cause severe disease. If we still retain 90-95% protection from this with vaccination or recent infection then it should be manageable.

If it is truly much more infectious and vaccine resistant then the best case scenario would be that it's mutated to develop more affinity for the ACE2 receptor in the upper airways and hence become more of a cold than a viral pneumonia.

That is true. We have zero data how sever is Covid caused by this variant. There are suggestions that this variant evolved in an immune compromised person. If it is true it could suggest the variant is not very deadly as that person survived for a long time and could still be alive. 

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13 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is also possible that the virus was carried from one room to another by a third person. 

I don't think 6 months is some threshold timeframe. The immunity drops in continuous manner in time. There is a lot variation in quality of immunity obtained by vaccination from a person to a person due to genetics, health and randomness of immunity building mechanism. We need more data to draw any conclusion if this variant escapes immunity on the population level.  

That is true. We have zero data how sever is Covid caused by this variant. There are suggestions that this variant evolved in an immune compromised person. If it is true it could suggest the variant is not very deadly as that person survived for a long time and could still be alive. 

In which case that would be good news - as we would be entering a relatively safe endemic phase ?

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1 minute ago, Twenty Something said:

And off you all go on another two and a half thousand page epic on black swans, conspiracy theories, googled immunology academia and armchair medicine, all mixed in with comparing tinfoil hat designs and top tips for defending yourself from the rioting masses. 

But so far a refreshing change from all that lol. Enjoy it while it lasts :)

 

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5 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

And off you all go on another two and a half thousand page epic on black swans, conspiracy theories, googled immunology academia and armchair medicine, all mixed in with comparing tinfoil hat designs and top tips for defending yourself from the rioting masses. 

You forgot to mention the Rothschilds.

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