Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[henry the king]

11 minutes ago, Dweller said:

And this is it in a nutshell isn't it... 
Why would anyone even imagine that they could ever 'solve' the complex riddle of inter-connecting parts (perhaps wholes would be a better word here as the sum of the parts etc etc ) and for the vast majority do a better job then a complex immune system is already capable of doing if it isn't 'taught' to recognise in part a complex evolving virus... 

Yeh you can't. There are so many cases of treatments working in a certain way based on models or lab work and then the human immune system doesn't work as expected.

In this age of the internet when everyone thinks they know everything, and where scientists struggle amongst themselves for air time, nobody really says the truth. Which is that the immune system is not well understood by scientists. We are constantly surprised by how things work in humans, so to predict a human immune systems reaction to this new variant is basically impossible until 2-3 months when we get real life data. 

We know the vaccines work because of real world data, not lab studies or BS computer modelling. 

[slawek]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

The mutation speed is clearly not constant given they were all surprised by this latest variant. They present it as if it made a huge jump that surprised them greatly. There are still many more ways this thing can change.

To be clear I said on average constant. As you can see below there are on average 27 substitutions per year. You can expect around 60 substitutions per year at the moment. B.1.1.259 has around 60. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d3X7133i9Jw3CrA-nhU8ppZoRBPueO51goFBXXKtpU8/edit#gid=0

 

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

Modelling is also flawed heavily with anything around the immune system. It is one of the areas of science which is still not well understood. The human immune system is still a riddle to be solved, and the inter-connecting parts mean any lab or computing modelling work is not important.

The modelling is very isolated, about how mutations will affect antibodies, one protein (anitbody) binding another protein (virus spike). Nothing to do with complex interactions with the immune system.  

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

The production and rollout cannot realistically be improved much. Flat out maybe we could get to 4 million doses a week provided we had the supply, which we wouldn't at all these other countries want the jabs too. 

You need to think globally. 

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

The vaccines do basically nothing to stop infection after 6 months.

Not true. They still provide 50-70% protection against infection.

Edited November 27, 2021 by slawek

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Are you saying these are the countries where significant mutations come from ?

No I was responding to the poster saying:

The more people we manage to vaccinate and/or better suppress with lockdowns the longer is time between next significant mutations. 

By asking : 

How is that going ?? 

 

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

Those are secondary effects. 

So are saying these don't matter? 

[slawek]

1 minute ago, Dweller said:

So are saying these don't matter? 

After being vaccinated you will get something like 90% protection. A type of previous vaccine or whether you had previous infection could change this maybe by 5-10%. 

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Because they'e done it repeatedly and successfully through history lol ?

If this has been done "throughout history " then why is "  anything around the immune system..one of the areas of science which is still not well understood. The human immune system is still a riddle to be solved, and the inter-connecting parts mean any lab or computing modelling work is not important."

Surely we are currently in unchartered waters trying to make wholes out of parts.... relying on hope rather than data ...

Edited 1 hour ago by henry the king

[henry the king]

37 minutes ago, slawek said:

To be clear I said on average constant. As you can see below there are on average 27 substitutions per year. You can expect around 60 substitutions per year at the moment. B.1.1.259 has around 60. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d3X7133i9Jw3CrA-nhU8ppZoRBPueO51goFBXXKtpU8/edit#gid=0

 

The modelling is very isolated, about how mutations will affect antibodies, one protein (anitbody) binding another protein (virus spike). Nothing to do with complex interactions with the immune system.  

You need to think globally. 

Not true. They still provide 50-70% protection.

That's the point, modelling is isolated. So are lab studies. So we have no idea at all how the body is going to interact with this thing going forward. We also have no idea how the virus variants will work. Is this one going to be bad? Nobody knows. We literally have no idea because the interaction between such changes to the virus and our immune systems are so complex, we will only know when it has infected people in the real world. Hence why you cannot predict how any of these variants are going to work.

 

After 6 months the vaccines are basically worthless for stopping infections. Still worth taking the first 2 to not be immunologically naïve.

Thinking globally is pointless. We could send 1 billion doses to Africa tomorrow and it wouldn't make much difference. Most won't take it and they would struggle to roll it out even if the people did want to take it.  

An average is always constant, that means nothing. You are dealing with something which can changes in large steps as is clear now from this latest variant. We can never stay ahead of this and the damage done trying will cripple the world and kill way more people than covid ever did.

If you want good long term protection then get infected, then again, then again. Do it after 2 jabs if you aren't under 25 or something. Getting exposed to the entire virus is obviously better for your protection than just RNA from a spike protein. That much isn't rocket science.

Edited November 27, 2021 by henry the king

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Optimism, to me, would be the arrival of a variant that is highly transmissive and relatively benign that would give wide ranging natural immunity.

That would be amazing news to pretty much everyone except the mRNA vaccine makers currently on a roll... 

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

Yeh you can't. There are so many cases of treatments working in a certain way based on models or lab work and then the human immune system doesn't work as expected.

In this age of the internet when everyone thinks they know everything, and where scientists struggle amongst themselves for air time, nobody really says the truth. Which is that the immune system is not well understood by scientists. We are constantly surprised by how things work in humans, so to predict a human immune systems reaction to this new variant is basically impossible until 2-3 months when we get real life data. 

We know the vaccines work because of real world data, not lab studies or BS computer modelling. 

Not well understood yet still these  attempts to mimic a healthy immune response in part whilst trying to reduce the complexity by pinning the butterflies wing to a dart board. 

The trouble then is what gets done with real world data ... 




 

[Dweller]

20 minutes ago, henry the king said:

That's the point, modelling is isolated. So are lab studies. So we have no idea at all how the body is going to interact with this thing going forward. We also have no idea how the virus variants will work. Is this one going to be bad? Nobody knows. We literally have no idea because the interaction between such changes to the virus and our immune systems are so complex, we will only know when it has infected people in the real world. Hence why you cannot predict how any of these variants are going to work.

 

After 6 months the vaccines are basically worthless for stopping infections. Still worth taking the first 2 to not be immunologically naïve.

Thinking globally is pointless. We could send 1 billion doses to Africa tomorrow and it wouldn't make much difference. Most won't take it and they would struggle to roll it out even if the people did want to take it.  

An average is always constant, that means nothing. You are dealing with something which can changes in large steps as is clear now from this latest variant. We can never stay ahead of this and the damage done trying will cripple the world and kill way more people than covid ever did.

If you want good long term protection then get infected, then again, then again. Do it after 2 jabs if you aren't under 25 or something. Getting exposed to the entire virus is obviously better for your protection than just RNA from a spike protein. That much isn't rocket science.

OMG it is just so wonderful to hear someone speaking something that makes sense bringing the complexity into equation , the whole always being greater than the sum.... 

I am a nobody who struggles with all of this but am aware enough to get a sense that  complex human immune systems cannot be reduced to parts  then 'taught' in part to recognise the virus in part without that thinking eventually being blown apart! 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Dweller

[pig]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Optimism, to me, would be the arrival of a variant that is highly transmissive and relatively benign that would give wide ranging natural immunity.

Yes - I think it was @slawek who pointed out that possibility with this one. If that were the case that would be tantamount to a Christmas present !

I'd settle for 'vaccines effective carry on as you were'. Be a pain to have to go through another winter lockdown - bad enough that we're entering December with everything thrown into doubt.

[Dweller]

27 minutes ago, slawek said:

After being vaccinated you will get something like 90% protection. A type of previous vaccine or whether you had previous infection could change this maybe by 5-10%. 

I guess then the Q (and others on here are far better at taking the time to post the data) is how long does the vaccine provide 90% immunity (not sure they all even provide that from day 1 do they)? With the  flu for instance there are studies showing that after 3 months  immunity is pretty much down to zero and that the first flu jab prompts a greater immune response than subsequent years even with changing the strain. 

[Bruce Banner]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

Yes - I think it was @slawek who pointed out that possibility with this one. If that were the case that would be tantamount to a Christmas present !

I'd settle for 'vaccines effective carry on as you were'. Be a pain to have to go through another winter lockdown - bad enough that we're entering December with everything thrown into doubt.

Although, as I think I said previously, that outcome might not meet with the approval of the pharmaceutical companies and the governments they support.

[pig]

1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Although, as I think I said previously, that outcome might not meet with the approval of the pharmaceutical companies and the governments they support.

Well, it would certainly deeply upset and disappoint the cranks, quacks and trolls and the various entities they support so Christmas all round

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, henry the king said:

Lockdowns are no longer viable at all imo. The reason for a lockdown was to get us to vaccines. You cannot do that everytime a new variant comes up. And they will continue to emerge even if it is just every 18 months or something for a new one which gets around immunity. 

If we started a vaccine for this new variant now, then at best the average 40 year old (or whatever) would have a new jab maybe in 10-11 months (given you have to research it, manufacture it, then roll it out). 

Well by 10-11 months there will just be a new "super variant" that gets around these new vaccines and the whole process will repeat itself. Another lockdown (aka restrictions of varying degree), more travel restrictions, etc. 

 

Remember lockdown 1 was NOT to get to vaccines - it was to “flatten the curve”. Ie “millions of you will get sick and we can’t stop it. Just please try to spread it out”

So it doesn’t follow that we couldn’t have another viable lockdown to flatten the curve of variants.

I don’t think we will see full national lockdowns again though. More likely just WFH if you can.

[pig]

49 minutes ago, Dweller said:

No I was responding to the poster saying:

The more people we manage to vaccinate and/or better suppress with lockdowns the longer is time between next significant mutations. 

By asking : 

How is that going ?? 

 

Oh I'm sorry - just a simple poster trying to understand your post.

What has trying to extend the period between signifiant mutations got to do with Israel/Gibraltar/ Ireland/Iceland ?

[MARTINX9]

13 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Remember lockdown 1 was NOT to get to vaccines - it was to “flatten the curve”. Ie “millions of you will get sick and we can’t stop it. Just please try to spread it out”

So it doesn’t follow that we couldn’t have another viable lockdown to flatten the curve of variants.

I don’t think we will see full national lockdowns again though. More likely just WFH if you can.

I don't see full lockdowns either - the Government cannot afford one.

But will there be restrictions such as the enforcement of mask wearing on public transport. Even in London where mask wearing on the tube is supposed to be mandatory most people don't. Will people be encouraged to work from home if they can. Will nightclubs be closed - as they were right up to July.

I don't see pubs and restaurants being shut - but could we move back to at table service as in May? Will there be social distancing made mandatory in cinemas and theatres - its hard to get seats for many weekend screenings in London cinemas as many are packed out. House of Gucci is pulling in the crowds this weekend with Lady Gaga. Will we go back to the silly rule where you had to wear a mask for the entire screening - but didn't have to if you spent 2 hours stuffing popcorn in your gob!

Do vaccine passports come back for clubs? Do the Pfizer and Moderna current vaccines even work on this new variant - do we plough on or wait for updated vaccines?

But who can say - and will Scotland, Wales and NI go for more aggressive measures?

I see we have our first UK cases in Chelmsford and Nottingham - based on travel from SA. How did they get home from Heathrow - on the tube/train?

Edited November 27, 2021 by MARTINX9

[Flat Bear]

19 hours ago, btd1981 said:

Lockdowns do work, when adhered to. Cases have never continued to increase during lockdown, bar the initial overshoot. They've always come right down again. It's the exits from lockdowns that have been problematic.

Good luck with your lockdown. You know you will probably have to do this for ever (until you die anyway)

How will you feed yourself? Do you think you can live the rest of your life like this?

Good luck anyway

3 hours ago, Dweller said:

I am struggling to follow the logic here but this is probably down to me! :O) 

Are you absolutely certain that the bodies own innate immune response isn't sufficient for the vast majority of healthy under 50s? 

And why wouldn't there be infections if people were left to fall back on the bodies own innate immune response now that herd immunity via vaccine is no longer possible ? 


 

Of course the bodies immune system works, and you are absolutely correct. These vaccines only aid the immune system to identify this virus.

"Natural infection is much more effective in giving long term immunity to the Virus" WOW who would have thunk it.

Really bl###dy obvious.

[Dweller]

7 minutes ago, pig said:

Oh I'm sorry - just a simple poster trying to understand your post.

What has trying to extend the period between signifiant mutations got to do with Israel/Gibraltar/ Ireland/Iceland ?

Hi there - oh dear one simple poster trying to communicate with an even simpler poster recipe for much confusion ! :O) 

You said: 

The more people we manage to vaccinate and/or better suppress with lockdowns the longer is time between next significant mutations. 

As the basis of your thinking is that "the more people we manage to vaccinate /or better suppress" I was simply asking how well this was going given that Israel for instance is highly vaccinated and has announced at state of emergency despite currently giving 4th boosters.  

You are right of course that transmission needs to come right down to stop significant mutations but currently the vaccine doesn't seem to be doing a great job of doing this. Trouble is a very leaky vaccine and a lot of infection and then globally  priming immune systems to only recognise part of the virus is probably not the best way of going about this. I think the 'experts' have been saying this all along. 

[slawek]

58 minutes ago, henry the king said:

After 6 months the vaccines are basically worthless for stopping infections

You seem to be trolling, if you repeat this false claim.

[nome]

I reckon this new variant could be combated by printing off a shitload of helicopter money, flooding the economy with it and inflating asset prices higher.... it's surely got to be a worth a try?

[henry the king]

23 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Remember lockdown 1 was NOT to get to vaccines - it was to “flatten the curve”. Ie “millions of you will get sick and we can’t stop it. Just please try to spread it out”

So it doesn’t follow that we couldn’t have another viable lockdown to flatten the curve of variants.

I don’t think we will see full national lockdowns again though. More likely just WFH if you can.

The people in charge have now seen what restrictions can do. The leaked report showed a huge financial hit just from "plan b" which was just working from home and masks. 

Restrictions also create a health deficit. If you can no longer get 20 people in a parkinson's exercise class due to social distancing, or if they are too scared to show up to these things, or if they are too scared to go to hospital/doctor with issues then you get a huge health deficit. Hence why, even after just the previous 12-18 months of restrictions we now have excess deaths at a significant level that cannot be assigned to covid.

The greater the restrictions continue, the greater the health deficit. And that is ignoring the health and social deficit from restrictions from a weaker economy.

I also never said we won't go into more restrictions. I think we will. And I think there could be a place for them. But the bar needs to be very high due to the significant costs.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

If you want good long term protection then get infected, then again, then again. Do it after 2 jabs if you aren't under 25 or something. Getting exposed to the entire virus is obviously better for your protection than just RNA from a spike protein. That much isn't rocket science.

Indeed

RNA from the original spike must actually be worthless against a different strain with a very different spike. Particularly to those without real exposure to any coronavirus of late.

Clearly full virus exposure is what is needed.

This single spike approach seems very short term to me.

I'm out there mixing it up as much as possible. particularly enjoy using the tube at the moment, good to see the majority not using face masks.

I was a bit annoyed though going into an M&S this morning, previously a largely mask free shop. Seemed to be back full of doddering maskies, the sort I normally find in the larger Waitrose. Guess they read the Daily Mail. Presumably they'll be online shopping next week.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[henry the king]

Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Indeed

RNA from the original spike must actually be worthless against a different strain with a very different spike. Particularly to those without real exposure to a coronavirus of late.

Clearly full virus exposure is what is needed.

This single spike approach seems very short term to me.

I'm out there mixing it up as much as possible. particularly enjoy using the tube at the moment, good to see the majority not using face masks.

I was a bit annoyed though going into an M&S this morning, previously a largely mask free shop. Seemed to be back full of doddering maskies - guess they read the Daily Mail. Presumably they'll be online shopping next week.

 

 

Yeh, you literally want to get it now and probably want to get this new "super variant". Because it isn't even a super variant. If it is going to become dominant it will change again and further from the base virus we got the vaccines about. So by the time "super variant 3.0" comes out (this things grandchild) then we will all wish we got this version whilst the vaccines took the edge off it.

[slawek]

34 minutes ago, Dweller said:

I guess then the Q (and others on here are far better at taking the time to post the data) is how long does the vaccine provide 90% immunity (not sure they all even provide that from day 1 do they)? With the  flu for instance there are studies showing that after 3 months  immunity is pretty much down to zero and that the first flu jab prompts a greater immune response than subsequent years even with changing the strain. 

It depends on vaccine, variant, age and against what etc.

Pfizer A - against infection B - against hospitalisation

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext

Against infection adjusted by age, sex and race. 

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm0620

You can't compare flu with Covid vaccine effectiveness. The flu virus is well known for its ability to evade the immune system.