House price to "gradually deflate"

[Si1]

9 hours ago, morty said:

Why would you take on a mortgage at the top of the market when basic living expenses are going up?  Of course they’re gonna deflate right?  

because if you have a large deposit:

 

(1) other places to invest said deposit seem to be equally or more overvalued

(2) 65% LTV mortgages are insanely cheap

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, Si1 said:

because if you have a large deposit:

 

(1) other places to invest said deposit seem to be equally or more overvalued

(2) 65% LTV mortgages are insanely cheap

We're all going to lose out... Pick the least worse oprion. 

 

The bankers ain't going to stop 

[Si1]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

We're all going to lose out... Pick the least worse oprion. 

 

The bankers ain't going to stop 

Yeah it's not great

[morty]

Housing costs must fall for the poor or there will be mass evictions and housing is the biggest bubble of them all.  A slow somehow controlled deflation of the bubble is surely needed, so many people are priced out due to property speculation.  

Edited September 24, 2021 by morty

[spyguy]

On 22/09/2021 at 18:26, Speed1987 said:

No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it.

Unless they ******ed up big time, interest rates increase rapidly or they die.

When I come to sell my house, which has risen 80% in 5 years, I expect that price and will not let it go for any less.

I expect the majority of sellers have this attitude.

House prices are not going to deflate, why? There's way to much money around... if anything, people should expect them to go up by a further 20% over the next 2 years. 

Which seems highly likely.

https://houseprices.io/?q=scarborough

Go thru the pages, look at the red numbers.

Go to times of stress - 2008, and youll see loads.

When IRs turn youll see the same.

 

 

[Speed1987]

9 hours ago, morty said:

Housing costs must fall for the poor or there will be mass evictions and housing is the biggest bubble of them all.  A slow somehow controlled deflation of the bubble is surely needed, so many people are priced out due to property speculation.  

That's not the perspective of bankers.

They simply don't care if the poor cannot buy, they just need enough FTBs to prop up the bottom end.

Which 95% mortgages + BOMAD + LL + inheritance will prop nicely.

Bankers, do not sit there and think the poor cannot buy. They see poverty as a choice and so do I. Would you allow your assets to deflate for others to gain?

Gentrification will occur again and these people will be shipped out to poorer areas.

[Pmax2020]

The market is definitely slowing up across central Scotland and the likes of Perthshire and Fife. Everyday a new listing appears and I think, “ok, good luck with that one”. Lo and behold the price is reduced later in the week. 

Theres been some desperate ones too. Listed at 500k on the Monday then dropped to 499k a few days later as though the reason they’ve clearly had no viewers is simply search filters!!

There’s a backlog of overpriced 400-500k houses in my search area that would’ve been 100k less 18 months ago. Greedy people that have now missed the boat. 

Imagine listing your house amidst the biggest boom the UK housing market has ever seen… and you didn’t sell because the 10-12% Boris bonus wasn’t enough - you wanted even more. Haha!!

I can confidently say prices won’t get any higher now in Scotland. Not for many, many years. 

[wighty]

The tide's gone out and the overpriced dross is left.

There may be a reduction, but it's still overpriced and it's still dross.

Anything decent and good value is still being snapped up - South East Kent

Edited September 25, 2021 by wighty

[msi]

2 hours ago, wighty said:

The tide's gone out and the overpriced dross is left.

There may be a reduction, but it's still overpriced and it's still dross.

Anything decent and good value is still being snapped up - South East Kent

Snapped up - Yes.  Bought on sound financials -No

Only takes a shake from IRs, Job Loss, Divorce, Mortgage rates and a lot of people will find themselves sh*fted wailing to the Daily Heil about how they are being 'cheated'.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 hours ago, morty said:

Housing costs must fall for the poor or there will be mass evictions and housing is the biggest bubble of them all.  A slow somehow controlled deflation of the bubble is surely needed, so many people are priced out due to property speculation.  

Was needed in 2008...what did the tories do when they came to power? 

[Flat Bear]

On 22/09/2021 at 18:26, Speed1987 said:

No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it.

Unless they ******ed up big time, interest rates increase rapidly or they die.

When I come to sell my house, which has risen 80% in 5 years, I expect that price and will not let it go for any less.

I expect the majority of sellers have this attitude.

House prices are not going to deflate, why? There's way to much money around... if anything, people should expect them to go up by a further 20% over the next 2 years. 

Which seems highly likely.

No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it

Why do you think it is different this time?

My sister sold her one before last home at approx 12% less than she paid and I sold my home at 4% less than I paid and I had made a lot of improvements.

It should not make much of a  difference if the home you are going to buy is equally affordable. The banks have been very careful this time not to lend where people can get into negative equity in a big way so the banks will have no problems and everything will be OK. As we are all aware a home is somewhere to live and NOT an investment. Those that "invest" in property will be subject to market forces as all investments are. "Your investment can go down as well as up" and if you get a margin call you can lose your investment and go into debt on the balance. You may notice that your mortgage will state "You can lose your home if you do not keep up your payments" Obvious, I suppose but it should be remembered this is a fact and can lead to real hardship when you get into negative equity (margin call) 

I think you are totally deluded if you think the government will somehow bail you out.

There is nothing wrong with being a Bull on property, but it must be remembered property prices can go down as well as up and you must at least realise there is a possibility.

[Speed1987]

26 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it

Why do you think it is different this time?

My sister sold her one before last home at approx 12% less than she paid and I sold my home at 4% less than I paid and I had made a lot of improvements.

It should not make much of a  difference if the home you are going to buy is equally affordable. The banks have been very careful this time not to lend where people can get into negative equity in a big way so the banks will have no problems and everything will be OK. As we are all aware a home is somewhere to live and NOT an investment. Those that "invest" in property will be subject to market forces as all investments are. "Your investment can go down as well as up" and if you get a margin call you can lose your investment and go into debt on the balance. You may notice that your mortgage will state "You can lose your home if you do not keep up your payments" Obvious, I suppose but it should be remembered this is a fact and can lead to real hardship when you get into negative equity (margin call) 

I think you are totally deluded if you think the government will somehow bail you out.

There is nothing wrong with being a Bull on property, but it must be remembered property prices can go down as well as up and you must at least realise there is a possibility.

Within the current context.

House prices have just risen 13%+ over the past year.

The majority of people are unlikely to be in negative equity.

As you pointed out, the banks have been more careful this time around.

I'm not deluded, quite in touch with reality. The government have given 6 months of mortgage holidays & billions in furlough and grants. Is this not the government bailing out home owners?

Are you aware the government also props up those out of work, by providing payments to cover the interest of a mortgage?

I'm sure there are people who have been stung recently by the race for space, particularly those in flats/apartments. There are always going to be areas of the market which suffer because of changing priorities.

However the majority of home owners have done extremely well and are much wealthier as a result.

It is different when the whole market contracts, those moving up the ladder with enough equity, can now buy a bigger house for cheaper.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Speed1987

[winkie]

Who wants bigger when are buying two or three or four?

[Bloop]

43 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

 

I'm not deluded, quite in touch with reality. The government have given 6 months of mortgage holidays & billions in furlough and grants. Is this not the government bailing out home owners?

 

Sure it is, but in the exceptional circumstances of a once in a lifetime pandemic that affected the whole globe - every developed government was bailing their citizens out left right and centre. Once the pandemic is ostensibly 'over' the rhetoric changes and it becomes a case of sink or swim and the bailouts will most likely stop or be severely reduced. It's obvious that at some point our government is going to start talking about 'tough decisions needing to be made' and having to pay the piper - if (when) prices do come down to more sensible levels, no government is going to bail you out to make sure you are able to lock in your 80% mad gainz - if you have to sell because you need to (job loss or ill health for example) you will fall into line with everyone else.

[Speed1987]

27 minutes ago, Bloop said:

Sure it is, but in the exceptional circumstances of a once in a lifetime pandemic that affected the whole globe - every developed government was bailing their citizens out left right and centre. Once the pandemic is ostensibly 'over' the rhetoric changes and it becomes a case of sink or swim and the bailouts will most likely stop or be severely reduced. It's obvious that at some point our government is going to start talking about 'tough decisions needing to be made' and having to pay the piper - if (when) prices do come down to more sensible levels, no government is going to bail you out to make sure you are able to lock in your 80% mad gainz - if you have to sell because you need to (job loss or ill health for example) you will fall into line with everyone else.

Alot assumed at the start of the pandemic the housing market was about to crash. However the government came to the rescue.

I can agree there will be some casualties, although currently people cannot even buy a property, with the bidding wars. So there is likely to be alot of pent up demand to prevent prices falling. 

There is an increasing number of vacancies also, so plenty of work out there.

My perspective may appear bullish, but it's firmly based in reality. This is occurring right now, housing are selling the same day still within my local area.

If there's a dip, I would expect the BOE to go negative on rates or some new prop to push it back up. As they have done, time and time again without fail.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Speed1987

[FallingAwake]

12 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

If there's a dip, I would expect the BOE to go negative on rates or some new prop to push it back up. As they have done, time and time again without fail.

And at 10% inflation with a mandate to keep it at 2%?

[highcontrast]

22 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

This is occurring right now, housing are selling the same day still within my local area.

You keep saying this @Speed1987, I call absolute bullsh1te on that statement. On the same day!? Give over. Do you think we're that stupid on here? Lol.

I'd be fascinated to know which area you are in? Also please give examples if you're so sure of this.

I am in the Midlands and do the same search exact criteria using four of the big search engines and have been keeping an eye on this daily since about May time. One thing for sure houses are not selling on the "same" day (i don't think they sell on the same day anywhere). There was very little inventory for the majority of the summer and I'm guessing this did cause an element of panic buying  but I would say inventory has nearly doubled since, this started happening on the 1st September strangely, perhaps vendors realising the stamp duty holiday euphoria had gone.

Not only that lots of houses have been on for weeks, several on for two months or more. And may hard for you believe some of these stragglers have had price reductions. Yes reductions!

I thought you said vendors could ask for whatever pie in the sky asking price they wanted and they'd get it?

And on that topic how do you explain the huge price reductions thread on here?

You protest a little too much me thinks, and as mentioned your posts are sounding more and more delusional.

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by highcontrast

[Bloop]

18 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

If there's a dip, I would expect the BOE to go negative on rates or some new prop to push it back up. As they have done, time and time again without fail.

Possibly, but perhaps not in the context of hyperinflation. My understanding is that interest rates and inflation are inversely correlated, so if they went negative on rates atm, that would cause inflation to spike even further. They seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place atm, where they've not got an awful lot of tools left in the box after all the can kicking of the last 13 years or so...

[Bloop]

7 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

Not only that lots of houses have been on for weeks, several on for two months or more. And may hard for you believe some of these stragglers have had price reductions. Yes reductions!

 

[Bloop]

Oops, accidental post! Still getting the hang of this forum...

Yep @highcontrast, I'm starting to see this in my part of the North West too....

[Kosmin]

8 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

I call absolute bullsh1te on that statement. On the same day!? Give over.

Here are couple SSTC which were listed on 20th and 21st respectively

4 bedroom semi-detached house for sale in Sandringham Drive, Hove, BN3 (rightmove.co.uk)

3 bedroom semi-detached house for sale in Auckland Drive, Brighton, BN2 (rightmove.co.uk)

They may have been sold on the first day on rightmove (though they may have been conducting viewings before they listed on rightmove)

[micawber]

9 hours ago, spyguy said:

https://houseprices.io/?q=scarborough

Go thru the pages, look at the red numbers.

Go to times of stress - 2008, and youll see loads.

When IRs turn youll see the same.

 

 

For my sins, I did (around pages 840 onwards - you can enter it in the URL!). It actually wasn't that bad. I need to have a look at some other areas.

[Speed1987]

36 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

You keep saying this @Speed1987, I call absolute bullsh1te on that statement. On the same day!? Give over. Do you think we're that stupid on here? Lol.

I'd be fascinated to know which area you are in? Also please give examples if you're so sure of this.

I am in the Midlands and do the same search exact criteria using four of the big search engines and have been keeping an eye on this daily since about May time. One thing for sure houses are not selling on the "same" day (i don't think they sell on the same day anywhere). There was very little inventory for the majority of the summer and I'm guessing this did cause an element of panic buying  but I would say inventory has nearly doubled since, this started happening on the 1st September strangely, perhaps vendors realising the stamp duty holiday euphoria had gone.

Not only that lots of houses have been on for weeks, several on for two months or more. And may hard for you believe some of these stragglers have had price reductions. Yes reductions!

I thought you said vendors could ask for whatever pie in the sky asking price they wanted and they'd get it?

And on that topic how do you explain the huge price reductions thread on here?

You protest a little too much me thinks, and as mentioned your posts are sounding more and more delusional.

 

I think you are incorrect and if you use rightmove you can see STC next to properties listed yesterday. However as its now the weekend, I would check again Monday to see others which have sold. You also have to understand there is lag between when a house sells and when an estate agent decides to update rightmove.

Or are you arguing the actual transaction? Well that may take weeks but they are still going through. 

I can agree there has been a slow down vs before the stamp duty cut, but demand is still high.

That thread "examples of big..." are simply outliers, these are people dancing around fire. They assume because some properties are dropping in various areas, the whole housing market is coming down. Its like a cult, if we all repeat and find evidence which supports our arguments, it must be true. However since 2008, unfortunately it hasn't happened.

You cannot refute that house prices have risen 8%+ in the last year, that's fact.

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Speed1987

[Twenty Something]

43 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

You keep saying this @Speed1987, I call absolute bullsh1te on that statement. On the same day!? Give over. Do you think we're that stupid on here? Lol.

I'd be fascinated to know which area you are in? Also please give examples if you're so sure of this.

I am in the Midlands and do the same search exact criteria using four of the big search engines and have been keeping an eye on this daily since about May time. One thing for sure houses are not selling on the "same" day (i don't think they sell on the same day anywhere). There was very little inventory for the majority of the summer and I'm guessing this did cause an element of panic buying  but I would say inventory has nearly doubled since, this started happening on the 1st September strangely, perhaps vendors realising the stamp duty holiday euphoria had gone.

Not only that lots of houses have been on for weeks, several on for two months or more. And may hard for you believe some of these stragglers have had price reductions. Yes reductions!

I thought you said vendors could ask for whatever pie in the sky asking price they wanted and they'd get it?

And on that topic how do you explain the huge price reductions thread on here?

You protest a little too much me thinks, and as mentioned your posts are sounding more and more delusional.

 

As pointed out to you above by other posters, it is reality. Not everywhere and with every property, but it is certainly happening. Good quality properties selling in 24 - 48 hours with multiple bidders, best and final and so on. If someone had the time or inclination, I bet for every property in the big and multiple drops thread, another could be posted that has sold above asking. A big and multiple raises thread if you like. A quick search on your area (Birmingham) brings up plenty:

Added yesterday, Sold STC

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/113955266#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Added yesterday, Sold STC

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/79602711#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Added on the 23rd, Sold STC

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/113925659#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Added on the 23rd, Sold STC

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/113918012#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

 

And from the coal face as it were...

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6298849/buying-a-home-during-the-current-climate#latest

 

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4346330-Anyone-not-being-picky-and-STILL-cant-find-anything

 

Yeah I know I know, you all snear and look down on the MSE / Mumsnet crowd, but whatever you think of them, they are real people struggling to buy. 

 

Really comes down to where you get your news. If all you read is this site, then sure, it's all gone Pete Tong and the evil home owners are all about to take a bath. If you take a step away from the permadoom here, your eyes may be opened. 

 

 

 

 

[Twenty Something]

19 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I think you are incorrect and if you use rightmove you can see STC next to properties listed yesterday. However as its now the weekend, I would check again Monday to see others which have sold. You also have to understand there is lag between when a house sells and when an estate agent decides to update rightmove.

Or are you arguing the actual transaction? Well that may take weeks but they are still going through. 

I can agree there has been a slow down vs before the stamp duty cut, but demand is still high.

That thread "examples of big..." are simply outliers, these are people dancing around fire. They assume because some properties are dropping in various areas, the whole housing market is coming down. Its like a cult, if we all repeat and find evidence which supports our arguments, it must be true. However since 2008, unfortunately it hasn't happened.

You cannot refute that house prices have risen 8%+ in the last year, that's fact.

 

Agree with you completely. Things were always going to slow down post stamp duty returning, but my god the market is still mental around my way - anything on my street goes within days if and when it comes up. It's common for a property to be put on at a kite flying price to start with to see if anyone bites, and then it gets 'reduced' and sells. The biggest drops thread is mostly outliers like you say - mega mansions in central London, weird places nobody wants to buy, sure, the odd normal place that just doesn't float anyone's boat. You hit the nail on the head - people will find things to support their point of view, as they have been doing here for two decades, and what has happened? Bit of a dip in 2008, but otherwise property has gone up by many tens of thousands of pounds. A search back through past prophecies (as I sometimes like to do) reveals the crystal ball isn't just broken, it has never worked. I guess if you've spent 15 years becoming ever more angry that prices haven't crashed, you are never going to change your point of view, therefore @Speed1987 the likes of you and me can post till our fingers bleed but it won't change the mantra here.