UK to plunge into deepest slump on record with worst fall in GDP among G7

[HovelinHove]

11 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

How dare you, you anonymous collection of bits on my screen. I am discussing your arguments not you person. 
Again there’s no logic in your argument. If there was logic, I would expect the same numbers from France and Germany. I’d see a clear path there. I do not, I am afraid. 
 

 

You were insulting my argument which was a perfectly valid argument, namely that due to the poor performances of Italy and Spain since 2007, their economies were not running as “hot” as ours, therefore due to the fact that more people in the UK were spending more money pre-COVID as we were close to full employment, a lockdown would affect the UK GDP more than it would Italy or Spain’s. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by HovelinHove

[NoHPCinTheUK]

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

You were insulting my argument which was a perfectly valid argument, namely that due to the poor performances of Italy and Spain since 2007, their economies were not running as “hot” as ours, therefore due to the fact that more people in the UK were spending more money pre-COVID as we were close to full employment, a lockdown would affect the UK GDP more than it would Italy or Spain’s. 

As I said, following your valid argument, I would say Germany should suffer the same fate, and on a similar scale France too. I do not see the evidence, sorry. Saying there is no logic with someone’s argument is not an insult. You say a given fact is due to A, well, where A is true (hot economy) I would expect to see the same results. This seems not to be true, from here, your reasoning falls before its inner logic that should sustain it. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by NoHPCinTheUK

[Confusion of VIs]

18 hours ago, Giraffe said:

Since Trump is President the Marxist media will use the annualised figure for high drama.  

The annualised figure is routinely used in the US by all media, Marxist or not.

[steve99]

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Edited August 10, 2020 by steve99
delete

[steve99]

19 hours ago, Giraffe said:

Since Trump is President the Marxist media will use the annualised figure for high drama.  

Marxist?  The Guardian reported the actual figures, the yanks anualise (ie x4) it and report it that way.   As a probable RWNJ you probably dont know that at least 80% of the UK and US press is EXTREME right wing with zero social conscience and whos only goal is to get poorer people to sacrifice their own very real needs to support the petty whims of extremely rich people

[HovelinHove]

1 hour ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

As I said, following your valid argument, I would say Germany should suffer the same fate, and on a similar scale France too. I do not see the evidence, sorry. Saying there is no logic with someone’s argument is not an insult. You say a given fact is due to A, well, where A is true (hot economy) I would expect to see the same results. This seems not to be true, from here, your reasoning falls before its inner logic that should sustain it. 

You were talking only about Italy and Spain. Germany did not have a lockdown like ours...apples and pears. You are a bit of an arrogant knob tbh. I will put you on my ignore list.

[Big Orange]

11 hours ago, msi said:

The Tories came out of the ideological vacuum left by the Whigs.  They have betrayed themselves and will suffer the same - demographics is how they will die off.

Yeah, almost everybody I know about under 40 or even 50 seemingly has nothing in common with the Conservative Party, running on inertia like the UK economy has in the past 10 to 15 years. So they seem more prone catastrophic failure, if they hit an Outside Context Problem (in this case Covid 19).

 

11 hours ago, msi said:

The question is will Labour truly evolve and fill the gap, or is another Political Party due to come in.  Tony Blair is already sounding out donors for a new Political movement  (not led by him, even he realises he is a toxic brand).  Or will Farage come up like herpes to be a new 'peoples party' - now that is the stuff of nightmares and jackboots

There's a lot of foreign products/companies to boycott, foreign labourers to harass, and foreign property to vandalise if UK brownshirts appear on the horizon.

We'll see how Brexit plays out (and the suprise Brexit results rendered Farage and Co. more of an irrelevance).

[Switch625]

1 hour ago, steve99 said:

Marxist?  The Guardian reported the actual figures, the yanks anualise (ie x4) it and report it that way.   As a probable RWNJ you probably dont know that at least 80% of the UK and US press is EXTREME right wing with zero social conscience and whos only goal is to get poorer people to sacrifice their own very real needs to support the petty whims of extremely rich people

Corrected for you. 

I agree with you that the poorer in society (i.e. everyone else) are targeted, but in the twisted world view of such people this is regarded as acceptable collateral damage in pursuit of the goal of personal enrichment.

[steve99]

On 10/08/2020 at 13:02, Switch625 said:

Corrected for you. 

I agree with you that the poorer in society (i.e. everyone else) are targeted, but in the twisted world view of such people this is regarded as acceptable collateral damage in pursuit of the goal of personal enrichment.

However they need the vote of the poorer low paid, or sicker or disabled to vote against their own needs to keep the Tories in office. Hence the mega propaganda at work with the right wing press and social media inserts. The way they do this is with the 'look over there' tactics, ie millions of refugees paddling over to be given mansions and TVs that you have to work for, also hinting that 'they are stealing your jobs' to get you to vote Brexit (which is a ploy of course to run the country along 3rd world money laundering and racketeering lines). Rather than pointing out that most of their woes are on account of deliberate poor housing choices perpetuated by government on behest of landlords, city interests and landed gentry, or deliberate running down of the NHS and so on.

[Switch625]

Sadly @steve99 you are quite correct about the use of shiny baubles to distract the masses, but that is a ruse used by all of our political parties. My take on this is that it isn't their malignant intention to hurt everyone else, they don't care if they do in pursuit of their own greed.

Getting the thread back on track about the recession

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/12/economy/uk-economy-gdp/index.html

From the article.

What we already know ...

'About 730,000 jobs have been shed since the coronavirus pandemic shuttered British businesses in March, with the young, the old and the self-employed bearing the brunt of the unemployment crisis.'

And the future ...

"The dual threats of a second wave and slow progress over Brexit negotiations are also particularly concerning," Alpesh Paleja, lead economist at the CBI

And the impact on houses?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53755590

On the mini boom ...

'This will not last, commentators say, and over the coming months, house prices will inevitably fall on average, according to the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility.'

 

On possible future falls ...

'It has predicted falls of anything between 2% this year, to 22% by the later half of next year. Its central forecast is an 11% fall by the end of 2021 and flatlining thereafter.'

 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

and there it is ..surely time to call it as an economic depression 

ONS figures show GDP shrank 9.9% last year, the biggest decline since the Great Frost of 1709  

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/12/uk-avoided-double-dip-recession-despite-covid-slump-in-2020-ons-gdp

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-economy/corrected-update-1-uk-economy-suffers-record-9-9-slump-in-2020-idUSL8N2KI1QE

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uk-q4-gdp-economy-worst-in-g7-coronavirus-vaccines-2021-2-1030076660

Edited February 13, 2021 by Saving For a Space Ship

[TheCountOfNowhere]

44 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

and there it is ..surely time to call it as an economic depression 

ONS figures show GDP shrank 9.9% last year, the biggest decline since the Great Frost of 1709  

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/12/uk-avoided-double-dip-recession-despite-covid-slump-in-2020-ons-gdp

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-economy/corrected-update-1-uk-economy-suffers-record-9-9-slump-in-2020-idUSL8N2KI1QE

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uk-q4-gdp-economy-worst-in-g7-coronavirus-vaccines-2021-2-1030076660

House prices up 20% next year then.

 

[reddog]

Just now, Saving For a Space Ship said:

and there it is ..surely time to call it as an economic depression 

ONS figures show GDP shrank 9.9% last year, the biggest decline since the Great Frost of 1709  

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/12/uk-avoided-double-dip-recession-despite-covid-slump-in-2020-ons-gdp

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-economy/corrected-update-1-uk-economy-suffers-record-9-9-slump-in-2020-idUSL8N2KI1QE

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/uk-q4-gdp-economy-worst-in-g7-coronavirus-vaccines-2021-2-1030076660

the funny thing is, it doesn't actually feel like the depression has started yet.  To me it feels like we have been in suspended animation for the last year.  What will actually happen when furlough and other measures are taken away?  I recon we are in for a double dip, with the dip being at least 2%, surely we should start calling this thing the Covid depression?  No point in "sugar coating" it as a plain recession.

[winkie]

1 hour ago, reddog said:

the funny thing is, it doesn't actually feel like the depression has started yet.  To me it feels like we have been in suspended animation for the last year.  What will actually happen when furlough and other measures are taken away?  I recon we are in for a double dip, with the dip being at least 2%, surely we should start calling this thing the Covid depression?  No point in "sugar coating" it as a plain recession.

Agree.....my fear is for those that will suffer the most from the downturn, I am sure there are many vultures waiting in the sidelines to snap up depressed assets cheaply, a crash a loss of income and/or control of others is beneficial for them at the detriment of those that do not have the same opportunities.....sometimes I wonder why here, not for those with the most that want and covert more from those who can't help themselves because of circumstances beyond their control......the greed, selfishness and ego, the craving for as much wealth as possible, power and influence is something many could and will never be prepared for.....

[Roman Roady]

2 hours ago, reddog said:

the funny thing is, it doesn't actually feel like the depression has started yet.  To me it feels like we have been in suspended animation for the last year.  What will actually happen when furlough and other measures are taken away?  I recon we are in for a double dip, with the dip being at least 2%, surely we should start calling this thing the Covid depression?  No point in "sugar coating" it as a plain recession.

 

53 minutes ago, winkie said:

Agree.....my fear is for those that will suffer the most from the downturn, I am sure there are many vultures waiting in the sidelines to snap up depressed assets cheaply, a crash a loss of income and/or control of others is beneficial for them at the detriment of those that do not have the same opportunities.....sometimes I wonder why here, not for those with the most that want and covert more from those who can't help themselves because of circumstances beyond their control......the greed, selfishness and ego, the craving for as much wealth as possible, power and influence is something many could and will never be prepared for.....

Nonsense...the UK is a coiled spring.

A year of virus inspired reduced production, 1000's of small business closures AND dislocation from our main trading partners, plus a wasted year for our kids and 120k deaths is just what was wanted.

Stop being so pessimistic you lot.

[winkie]

17 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

 

Nonsense...the UK is a coiled spring.

A year of virus inspired reduced production, 1000's of small business closures AND dislocation from our main trading partners, plus a wasted year for our kids and 120k deaths is just what was wanted.

Stop being so pessimistic you lot.

Wanted and beneficial to some....not pessimistic for them, an opportunity to extract from the pain and loss of others.....not all kids have had a wasted year, not all business will close many have done rather well with help and adaption, our main trading partners have the rest of the world to do business with like we have, we chose to break that close relationship.....the large number of premature deaths didn't have to happen, but it has, can't change it now, can only try and see that the future works out to be better for all, not just the few......watch this space.

[Roman Roady]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

Wanted and beneficial to some....not pessimistic for them, an opportunity to extract from the pain and loss of others.....not all kids have had a wasted year, not all business will close many have done rather well with help and adaption, our main trading partners have the rest of the world to do business with like we have, we chose to break that close relationship.....the large number of premature deaths didn't have to happen, but it has, can't change it now, can only try and see that the future works out to be better for all, not just the few......watch this space.

No it wasn't.

We are governed by managers who see the nation state as a bureaucracy, they just want to keep the plates spinning before they can go on to earn some real wonga elsewhere.

If it's ever a choice between conspiracy and cockup...its cockup.

This past year has been one long cockup.

[satsuma]

4 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

No it wasn't.

We are governed by managers who see the nation state as a bureaucracy, they just want to keep the plates spinning before they can go on to earn some real wonga elsewhere.

If it's ever a choice between conspiracy and cockup...its cockup.

This past year has been one long cockup.

Very well said, get elected, keep the ponzi going, keep the banks happy, go onto a career in the private sector sitting on boards and quangos, rinse and repeat.  

[spyguy]

In relation to GDP, be it compared to US and Europe, different countries use different methods to come up with GDP, which in itself is a totally bogus figure.

If the UK and mainland Europe used the same methodologies theyd show roughly similar drops. Bar Spain n Italy, which are fooked due to tourism n aging.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p094vd4x

[winkie]

Wanted is a good enough excuse to do something that would otherwise not be acceptable?

Eg: negative interest rates, forever QE, cashless society, big data collection etc,etc.

Edited February 13, 2021 by winkie

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Wanted is a good enough excuse to do something that would otherwise not be acceptable?

Eg: negative interest rates, forever QE, cashless society, big data collection etc,etc.

This is all too convenient. 

[NobodyInParticular]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

In relation to GDP, be it compared to US and Europe, different countries use different methods to come up with GDP, which in itself is a totally bogus figure.

If the UK and mainland Europe used the same methodologies theyd show roughly similar drops. Bar Spain n Italy, which are fooked due to tourism n aging.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p094vd4x

The UK drop is bigger than comparators such as France, Germany, Netherlands, so the UK has done pretty badly. The EU as a whole and those comparators as well as the UK are projected by most (apart from BOE) to be +1% on the end of 2019 by the end of 2022, the exception in North Western Europe being France and Belgium. I don't know why France is projected to do so badly, but Belgium was hard hit by COVID, so that seems understandable. 

[shlomo]

8 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

The UK drop is bigger than comparators such as France, Germany, Netherlands, so the UK has done pretty badly. The EU as a whole and those comparators as well as the UK are projected by most (apart from BOE) to be +1% on the end of 2019 by the end of 2022, the exception in North Western Europe being France and Belgium. I don't know why France is projected to do so badly, but Belgium was hard hit by COVID, so that seems understandable. 

France probably has more visits from tourists than any other country, and coronovirus has stopped that

[NobodyInParticular]

1 minute ago, shlomo said:

France probably has more visits from tourists than any other country, and coronovirus has stopped that

It had initially been reported that the UK drop was greater than that of France, but I see now the hit to the UK economy, over the whole year, has been revised down, France's up, so the UK did better than France. So you might be right, and it might explain the longer dip expected in France. 

[shlomo]

7 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

It had initially been reported that the UK drop was greater than that of France, but I see now the hit to the UK economy, over the whole year, has been revised down, France's up, so the UK did better than France. So you might be right, and it might explain the longer dip expected in France. 

I cannot believe the numbers are accurate I see so many poor people begging all over London, that either the drop is much bigger or the Black economy was much larger than anybody realises