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UK to plunge into deepest slump on record with worst fall in GDP among G7


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UK to plunge into deepest slump on record with worst fall in GDP among G7

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/09/uk-to-fall-into-deepest-slump-on-record-with-worst-fall-in-gdp-among-g7

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Britain’s economy will be officially declared in recession this week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, as the coronavirus outbreak plunges the country into the deepest slump on record.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday are expected to show gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic prosperity, fell in the three months to June by 21%...

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship
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The poor they can spoil it for the rich......no trickle down from private big corporate business will only mean only public funds can be used to trickle up......private entities needs public funds (printing) to survive.?

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Brexit has not done anything to improve anything.......in fact it could have made things worse....just get Brexit done......you lost get over it.

No there is always a way to get around a loss.......?

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42 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

I do like the guardians reporting. USA declined 32% in the COVID lockdown quarter but guardian has it as 9.5%?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-instant/us-second-quarter-gdp-falls-at-steepest-rate-since-great-depression-idUSKCN24V2GJ

Edited by captainb
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Extremely worrying. It’s a meltdown. 
 

I do wonder how Italy and Spain managed to have a better figure when considered they had a very though lockdown, with people allowed to go out once a day. 
 

This is a quarter of the National GDP wiped out in 6 months. It’s serious business. This means that, in order to come back to the Dec 19 levels, the nation would need to produce TWICE the amount of goods and services compared to last six months last year just to match the figure. Hopefully I worked out the math properly?
 

It’s a bloody hell of a mess. 

Edited by NoHPCinTheUK
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Who cares - house prices are still going up.

And to TPTB and much of the British public that is the only measure that seemingly matters!

And Britain’s Got Talent subject to Cowells bad back, I’m a Celeb from a castle in Wales, social distanced Strictly and Dancing in Ice will soon all be back on our TVs! 

Edited by MARTINX9
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9 minutes ago, captainb said:

I do like the guardians reporting. USA declined 32% in the COVID lockdown quarter but guardian has it as 9.5%?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-instant/us-second-quarter-gdp-falls-at-steepest-rate-since-great-depression-idUSKCN24V2GJ

Wolf st commented on this

https://wolfstreet.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=814d7fe2e209ea27aa12fb806&id=4b6c9f6f1a&e=964a0a08af

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1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said:

Who cares - house prices are still going up.

And to TPTB and much of the British public that is the only measure that seemingly matters!

And Britain’s Got Talent subject to Cowells back bad, I’m a Celeb from a castle in Wales, social distanced Strictly and Dancing in Ice will soon all be back on our TVs! 

strong language 

 

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14 minutes ago, captainb said:

I do like the guardians reporting. USA declined 32% in the COVID lockdown quarter but guardian has it as 9.5%?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-instant/us-second-quarter-gdp-falls-at-steepest-rate-since-great-depression-idUSKCN24V2GJ

Since Trump is President the Marxist media will use the annualised figure for high drama.  

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11 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Extremely worrying. It’s a meltdown. 
 

I do wonder how Italy and Spain managed to have a better figure when considered they had a very though lockdown, with people allowed to go out once a day. 
 

This is a quarter of the National GDP wiped out in 6 months. It’s serious business. This means that, in order to come back to the Dec 19 levels, the nation would need to produce TWICE the amount of goods and services compared to last six months last year just to math the figure. Hopefully I worked out the match properly?
 

It’s a bloody hell of a mess. 

Perhaps some other countries need less to live on, need less to give them the same quality of life.....have more community and family support networks?.....?

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Just now, winkie said:

Perhaps some other countries need less to live on, need less to give them the same quality of life.....have more community and family support networks?.....?

This is still not an answer. People in Spain and Italy were not allowed to go out, even for a walk in the worst effected areas. They entered into lock down earlier than us for sure, but still in Q2. 
You would expect countries to have had a similar hit because of the lockdowns, however our figures are twice worse than other countries. April May is when Northern Europeans start going on holiday there, and still better figures. 
 

its either the guardian with wrong figures or its something going on we haven’t been paying attention to. 
 

out of curiosity, how many redundancies announced in those countries? Any article? 
 

I fear that UK corporate was in a very bad shape even BEFORE the virus. 
 

This is too strange to me. 

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7 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

This is a guess rather than anything based on fact, but maybe it's because the UK has leveraged every business to the eyeballs with private equity debt so there is no cash buffer to survive even the shortest downturn?  

Thi is actually a good guess in my opinion. People might think it’s because the country is highly focused on services. I got this, but these are still businesses, still 0 revenues for two to three months. 
 

I am sincerely shocked, those figures must be wrong. 

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25 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

This is still not an answer. People in Spain and Italy were not allowed to go out, even for a walk in the worst effected areas. They entered into lock down earlier than us for sure, but still in Q2. 
You would expect countries to have had a similar hit because of the lockdowns, however our figures are twice worse than other countries. April May is when Northern Europeans start going on holiday there, and still better figures. 
 

its either the guardian with wrong figures or its something going on we haven’t been paying attention to. 
 

out of curiosity, how many redundancies announced in those countries? Any article? 
 

I fear that UK corporate was in a very bad shape even BEFORE the virus. 
 

This is too strange to me. 

There is a simple timing issue here.

France, Italy, Spain went into lockdown earlier in early March rather than April and came out sooner. 

Hence their decline is spread over 2 qr's and not one. 

Add Q1 - 8% to Frances Q2 figure for example and you get the same decline as the UK over those 2 Qr's as well. 

 

For reference Italy went into lockdown late Feb so well in Q1

Edited by captainb
Added italy date
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4 minutes ago, captainb said:

There is a simple timing issue here.

France, Italy, Spain went into lockdown earlier in early March rather than April and came out sooner. 

Hence their decline is spread over 2 qr's and not one. 

Add Q1 - 8% to Frances Q2 figure for example and you get the same decline as the UK over those 2 Qr's as well 

This is not correct. Italy first full lockdown 10th of March, followed by Spain on the 14th and France on the 16th. Boris closed the nation on the 23rd of March, two weeks after Italy. 

Edited by NoHPCinTheUK
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1 hour ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

UK to plunge into deepest slump on record with worst fall in GDP among G7

Well then Johnson and Sunak had better be careful with all of the "give aways", else we become the sick man of the G7! Hopefully this furlough honeymoon is coming to an end here first.

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1 hour ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Extremely worrying. It’s a meltdown. 
 

I do wonder how Italy and Spain managed to have a better figure when considered they had a very though lockdown, with people allowed to go out once a day. 
 

This is a quarter of the National GDP wiped out in 6 months. It’s serious business. This means that, in order to come back to the Dec 19 levels, the nation would need to produce TWICE the amount of goods and services compared to last six months last year just to match the figure. Hopefully I worked out the math properly?
 

It’s a bloody hell of a mess. 

Spain and Italy already had higher unemployment and had suffered years of low growth or contraction. They were starting from a lower baseline, we are just going to join them now, although we will still not have the same levels of unemployment these club med countries have. 

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22 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

This is not correct. Italy first full lockdown 10th of March, followed by Spain on the 14th and France on the 16th. Boris closed the nation on the 23rd of March, two weeks after Italy. 

Regardless of exact dates - for example northern Italy went into lockdown earlier. The Q1 and Q2 figures should be combined - as lockdowns started in different time periods in Q1. Early march or end of march is highly significant given the huge impact of a lockdown and a QR is only 3 months...

Just look at that guardian info-graphic to see the much larger Q1 declines in Italy, France etc compared to the sub 2% decline in the UK

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1 minute ago, HovelinHove said:

Spain and Italy already had higher unemployment and had suffered years of low growth or contraction. They were starting from a lower baseline, we are just going to join them now, although we will still not have the same levels of unemployment these club med countries have. 

What the hell does it mean? We are talking about the lockdown. Your argument is simply illogic. 

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2 minutes ago, captainb said:

Regardless of exact dates - for example northern Italy went into lockdown earlier. The Q1 and Q2 figures should be combined - as lockdowns started in different time periods in Q1. Early march or end of march is highly significant given the huge impact of a lockdown and a QR is only 3 months...

Just look at that guardian info-graphic to see the much larger Q1 declines in Italy, France etc compared to the sub 2% decline in the UK

Ok. Still, combining the two Q the UK is the worst of the lot. 

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2 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Ok. Still, combining the two Q the UK is the worst of the lot. 

Yes agreed, just far from as dramatic ( France being within a % point or so) once you strip out the timing of the QR issue.

France for example is above 20% as well.

Edited by captainb
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9 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

What the hell does it mean? We are talking about the lockdown. Your argument is simply illogic. 

10 per cent off a house previously worth £2m is a £200,000 drop.

10 per cent off a house worth £50k is only £5000.

Same percentage fall but forty times the monetary drop in wealth!

The UK had low unemployment and is a service based economy based on consuming things not making things. Once you withdraw the consumers - and people realise they can cope without consuming all the stuff they did before you can have a bigger economic impact than other nations.

Also Italy and Spain have much stronger social and family structures and a shared sense of identity - allegiances not based on money and consumption. So socially they will also bear up better when there is a crisis. That means they are also more likely to have a common buy in to conforming to lockdown rules - unlike much of the UK particularly in cities.

Edited by MARTINX9
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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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