Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Roman Roady]

forget Bitcoin or PM's, get some of this from Tipsons...

[swankyman]

 

You make plain the choice. One hard lockdown now vs a succession of soft lockdowns to come.

And then counterpoint the state of the winners with the state of the losers.

It's as stark as night and day.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coronavirus-could-disappear-in-australia-if-nsw-and-victoria-maintain-control-over-next-few-weeks-experts-say/ar-BB1aLFzl

But that doesn't answer how it will be enforced. What if there are massive protests?

And there are more than those two choices I'm afraid.

And how do you know a hard lockdown won't be followed by other lockdowns?

[swankyman]

Just put YouTube on. The embedded adverts are special

[zugzwang]

 

But that doesn't answer how it will be enforced. What if there are massive protests?

And there are more than those two choices I'm afraid.

And how do you know a hard lockdown won't be followed by other lockdowns?

If there are massive protests then the UK will end up like the US - a pile of bones to the Moon. Then, perhaps, the naysayers will relent.

The Zero Covid state is hard to reach but relatively easy to defend once you're there.

[erat_forte]

 

But that doesn't answer how it will be enforced. What if there are massive protests?

And there are more than those two choices I'm afraid.

And how do you know a hard lockdown won't be followed by other lockdowns?

You pre-empt protests by carefully building trust in the government and the institutions of state over long years and decades. You do this through responsible governance, good lawmaking, and setting an example of responsible citizenship and fiscal responsibility across the whole of society and the economy in the medium and long term.

Then you cash in that hard-earned trust by telling people frankly what the scientific advice is, and how you plan to implement the expert recommendations. Then you implement them.

[Megadebt]

 

If there are massive protests then the UK will end up like the US - a pile of bones to the Moon. Then, perhaps, the naysayers will relent.

The Zero Covid state is hard to reach but relatively easy to defend once you're there.

 Yes, mission accomplished comrades, this big weakness in our valued liberal personal freedoms and the relative ease to manipulate public opinion through social media has been exploited to the max, this 'taking back control' anti-expert brexitlike polarisation and divisions tactics manipulated even further.  A huge amount of the population now get all news online and through social media avoiding any MSN or official sources. 

 Picking through the bones of a severe and lasting economic depression in the West will be the rich plunder for those that can exploit the situation to their advantage now.

[onlooker]

 

You pre-empt protests by carefully building trust in the government and the institutions of state over long years and decades. You do this through responsible governance, good lawmaking, and setting an example of responsible citizenship and fiscal responsibility across the whole of society and the economy in the medium and long term.

Then you cash in that hard-earned trust by telling people frankly what the scientific advice is, and how you plan to implement the expert recommendations. Then you implement them.

Which scientific advice should this 'best of all possible governments' advise? SAGE or the Great Barrington views? Or just go for immediate total lockdown, welding the doors of blocks of flats so people really do stay inside?

[swankyman]

 

You pre-empt protests by carefully building trust in the government and the institutions of state over long years and decades. You do this through responsible governance, good lawmaking, and setting an example of responsible citizenship and fiscal responsibility across the whole of society and the economy in the medium and long term.

Then you cash in that hard-earned trust by telling people frankly what the scientific advice is, and how you plan to implement the expert recommendations. Then you implement them.

That's not the UK is it. Said really.

[Megadebt]

 

You pre-empt protests by carefully building trust in the government and the institutions of state over long years and decades. You do this through responsible governance, good lawmaking, and setting an example of responsible citizenship and fiscal responsibility across the whole of society and the economy in the medium and long term.

Then you cash in that hard-earned trust by telling people frankly what the scientific advice is, and how you plan to implement the expert recommendations. Then you implement them.

 Correct,  this is the essence of the problem - but too late for any of that now: the corrosive effect upon society of the 'bulllshit' age. 

 Going back to ww2 : compulsory gas masks and blackouts,  very unpopular but generally accepted -imagine trying that one today!    

[swankyman]

 

 Yes, mission accomplished comrades, this big weakness in our valued liberal personal freedoms and the relative ease to manipulate public opinion through social media has been exploited to the max, this 'taking back control' anti-expert brexitlike polarisation and divisions tactics manipulated even further.  A huge amount of the population now get all news online and through social media avoiding any MSN or official sources. 

 Picking through the bones of a severe and lasting economic depression in the West will be the rich plunder for those that can exploit the situation to their advantage now.

Do you really think this will lead to the downfall of the West? 

 

[swankyman]

 

 Correct,  this is the essence of the problem - but too late for any of that now: the corrosive effect upon society of the 'bulllshit' age. 

 Going back to ww2 : compulsory gas masks and blackouts,  very unpopular but generally accepted -imagine trying that one today!    

Hmmm. Just not comparable.

Why face masks weren’t compulsory during WW2

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-s-first-face-mask-debate

[Riedquat]

If you want to play the WW2 card there are all sorts of things regarded as normal now that would never have been accepted then. To start with the idea of CCTV everywhere would've been regarded as something out of a dystopian science fiction story.

 

[Roman Roady]

 

So in the spirit of this thread; i.e. about a virus being a Black Swan, what about the Mink?? (or is that Minks ala the DM article?).

Apparently the mutated virus is now in the US, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden and Italy.

A vaccine COVID MIGHT not work on this strain! Back to January with 100's of Billions spent...now that is a Black Swan!

Have there been "Lessons Learnt" or are they just Lessons repeated to the dummies of the class?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8923787/WHO-says-mutant-mink-coronavirus-outbreak-Denmark-concern.html

 

 

OK Heres an update

Yesterday there were 12 cases of the new "mink" strain in humans...today its 200.

In Trondheim Norway there has been a strain discovered over the past 2 weeks that has a longer incubation period and is more infectious, so thats a good combo! They are not sure if has more severe symptoms yet and also not sure if it is the Danish Mink mutation or not.

This isnt going well!

White Mink, Black Swan!

 

 

 

[swankyman]

 

OK Heres an update

Yesterday there were 12 cases of the new "mink" strain in humans...today its 200.

In Trondheim Norway there has been a strain discovered over the past 2 weeks that has a longer incubation period and is more infectious, so thats a good combo! They are not sure if has more severe symptoms yet and also not sure if it is the Danish Mink mutation or not.

This isnt going well!

White Mink, Black Swan!

 

 

 

Well if it's less severe then we should import it and spread it around quickly. 

[CityLAD88888]

 

Germany has done better than most European countries thanks to its efficient public healthcare infrastructure. However, they've made the same mistakes as the UK, Spain, Italy etc. in not suppressing the R rate sufficiently before opening up the economy and borders after lockdown.

South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore have all used electronic tagging via wristband to monitor self-quarantine observance at home rather than in state quarantine facilties. The numbers are small and generally confined to returnees from countries where a very high incidence of the virus is reported.

When one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst and adopt models that are robust to tail-risk. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence is gambling with the lives of citizens and a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

Interesting post, thanks.

Does it follow also that Germany's lockdown wasn't sharp enough? I don't know how strict they were, but that's the zero covid mantra too right? Lockdowns need not be long, rather, sufficiently sharp thus allowing full re-opening with track and trace. Germany was in lockdown months rather than weeks so one has to presume this is why their R rate wasn't 'sufficiently low'? Just on track and trace, would you say Germany's regime was sufficient or that it was purely a function of the R rate not being low enough when they opened up?

Yeah sounds as we should do the tagging thing here, people will cry dystopia but on a mass scale tech is the only way to reliably track and trace anything, police would have to get tougher on flouting rules too though, the East Asians are broadly more socially responsible & 'collectivist' for want of a better word than us.

Interesting last paragraph, big topic but I'd say though that all hedges have a cost and prudence and the ethics of governance are multi-dimensional hence the disagreement on these forums, and in politics at large, we all want the best, I don't think that makes anyone professionally incompetent because they happen to disagree with or even question or discuss something, prevailing scientific orthodoxy or not, it's actually a scarily bad place for science to be heading @The Preacherman posted a good article on that the other day, scientists scared to be objective etc. 

[Itssimple]

 

OK Heres an update

Yesterday there were 12 cases of the new "mink" strain in humans...today its 200.

In Trondheim Norway there has been a strain discovered over the past 2 weeks that has a longer incubation period and is more infectious, so thats a good combo! They are not sure if has more severe symptoms yet and also not sure if it is the Danish Mink mutation or not.

This isnt going well!

White Mink, Black Swan!

 

 

 

All 12 cases were identified in September 2020 in North Jutland. Reported as you say.

[Itssimple]

Question how did they test  the mink?

Why kill them all?  

Why not let nature takes its course, and observe/learn? After all it was transmitted to them by humans.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Interesting post, thanks.

Does it follow also that Germany's lockdown wasn't sharp enough? I don't know how strict they were, but that's the zero covid mantra too right? Lockdowns need not be long, rather, sufficiently sharp thus allowing full re-opening with track and trace. Germany was in lockdown months rather than weeks so one has to presume this is why their R rate wasn't 'sufficiently low'? Just on track and trace, would you say Germany's regime was sufficient or that it was purely a function of the R rate not being low enough when they opened up?

Yeah sounds as we should do the tagging thing here, people will cry dystopia but on a mass scale tech is the only way to reliably track and trace anything, police would have to get tougher on flouting rules too though, the East Asians are broadly more socially responsible & 'collectivist' for want of a better word than us.

Interesting last paragraph, big topic but I'd say though that all hedges have a cost and prudence and the ethics of governance are multi-dimensional hence the disagreement on these forums, and in politics at large, we all want the best, I don't think that makes anyone professionally incompetent because they happen to disagree with or even question or discuss something, prevailing scientific orthodoxy or not, it's actually a scarily bad place for science to be heading @The Preacherman posted a good article on that the other day, scientists scared to be objective etc. 

One of my daughters is studying at Munich, her take is that the lockdown was actually less strict in Germany than here but better observed, coming out of lockdown the rules were also less strict than here but much better observed and you just got into the habit of putting your face mask on before entering shops and sanitising your hands on the way in and out. Strangely no Germans suffer from the invisible disabilities that prevent so many people from wearing a mask here. 

We visited her in Munich last month and were struck by apart from the mask wearing/sanitising just how close to normal life seemed. The bars and restaurants were full albeit with reduced capacity because table spacing had been increased. I remember saying at the time it seemed a bit too close to normal. 

With hindsight that was correct and hopefully the lesson that its no good having R a little above 1 has been learnt.     

  

 

[pig]

 

You pre-empt protests by carefully building trust in the government and the institutions of state over long years and decades. You do this through responsible governance, good lawmaking, and setting an example of responsible citizenship and fiscal responsibility across the whole of society and the economy in the medium and long term.

Then you cash in that hard-earned trust by telling people frankly what the scientific advice is, and how you plan to implement the expert recommendations. Then you implement them.

This all would massively help but its not quite that extreme.

People were happy to trust the government in March, now the sense I get its more like they've got no choice and are worried the government aren't up to it.

[CityLAD88888]

 

One of my daughters is studying at Munich, her take is that the lockdown was actually less strict in Germany than here but better observed, coming out of lockdown the rules were also less strict than here but much better observed and you just got into the habit of putting your face mask on before entering shops and sanitising your hands on the way in and out. Strangely no Germans suffer from the invisible disabilities that prevent so many people from wearing a mask here. 

We visited her in Munich last month and were struck by apart from the mask wearing/sanitising just how close to normal life seemed. The bars and restaurants were full albeit with reduced capacity because table spacing had been increased. I remember saying at the time it seemed a bit too close to normal. 

With hindsight that was correct and hopefully the lesson that its no good having R a little above 1 has been learnt.     

  

 

🤣 so true, had to laugh at that bit but yeah 100% I can totally imagine the Germans being more observant on masks and sanitation than us. I fear the only way we'll learn that (barring socialising it into our young for the next generation) is via draconian fines and such.

Agreed on R number too, understanding exponents should be secondary level mathematics, again probably goes back to our education, places like China, South Korea, Japan it very much already is.

[The Preacherman]

 

So in the spirit of this thread; i.e. about a virus being a Black Swan, what about the Mink?? (or is that Minks ala the DM article?).

Apparently the mutated virus is now in the US, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden and Italy.

A vaccine COVID MIGHT not work on this strain! Back to January with 100's of Billions spent...now that is a Black Swan!

Have there been "Lessons Learnt" or are they just Lessons repeated to the dummies of the class?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8923787/WHO-says-mutant-mink-coronavirus-outbreak-Denmark-concern.html

 

 

The Mink mutation has already been found in humans and is not a big deal. 

 

 

 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

🤣 so true, had to laugh at that bit but yeah 100% I can totally imagine the Germans being more observant on masks and sanitation than us. I fear the only way we'll learn that (barring socialising it into our young for the next generation) is via draconian fines and such.

Agreed on R number too, understanding exponents should be secondary level mathematics, again probably goes back to our education, places like China, South Korea, Japan it very much already is.

 

 

One of my daughters is studying at Munich, her take is that the lockdown was actually less strict in Germany than here but better observed, coming out of lockdown the rules were also less strict than here but much better observed and you just got into the habit of putting your face mask on before entering shops and sanitising your hands on the way in and out. Strangely no Germans suffer from the invisible disabilities that prevent so many people from wearing a mask here. 

We visited her in Munich last month and were struck by apart from the mask wearing/sanitising just how close to normal life seemed. The bars and restaurants were full albeit with reduced capacity because table spacing had been increased. I remember saying at the time it seemed a bit too close to normal. 

With hindsight that was correct and hopefully the lesson that its no good having R a little above 1 has been learnt.     

  

 

Meanwhile in Germany.... 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by The Preacherman

[Megadebt]

 

Hmmm. Just not comparable.

Why face masks weren’t compulsory during WW2

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-s-first-face-mask-debate

 More an article about why public percepton of gas attack danger reduced quickly during the early 'phoney war', in the absense of gas attacks - and with the imputation that the planners 'got it all wrong'.  Londoners soon took blackout restrictions very seriously once the air raids started... 

  Gas masks not compulsory in ww2-ok, and but axis forces did have chemical warfare capabilities.  Hitler was gassed and temporarily blinded in ww1,  also aware that we would certainly retaliate in kind.  He may have beleived that England would tire of war and an agreement would soon be reached, but he would also know from spies on the ground here that large cities were all vulnerable to gas attack.   

 The article slightly triviaises the 1st London blitz, makes no mention of the second London blitz or the numerous military and industrial targets outside London that were targetted before and after-bear in mind the average accuracy of night bombing from 5 miles high was several miles.    Whilst a huge tactical blunder to 'punish' London rather than take out all RAF fighter interceptor bases and ground defences, at that time they had the capaility they did not need it; when they did become 'total war' desperate around 1943 they lacked the capabilites. 

 My point:  we got lucky here, rather than clever. and any civil disobedience mainly around dodging regulations, as opposed to a large minority of the population purposely protesting against them , and a smaller amount even deliberately spreading confusion now. 

 The ww2 'card' is comparable here: think of any other time in living uk history that is compares.   (not 2015 uk flu stats please) 

 

[Megadebt]

  Doh! Lord HawHaw here again. The Great Preacherman Declaration.

"Stay at home if you mink you might be ill, alternatively go to hospital if you wish" 

 

 Preacher, there are a few random threads here I've genuinely demonstrated some industry insider knowledge -motor trade for example.  Your "NHS G.P.  Dr Mrs" seems to agree with you on ignoring any containment measures (what could go wrong this family Christmas?) , why not spill the dirt here anonymously-be a whistleblower even.  Why rely on twitter or youtube for primary sources?  

 Did Dr Preacherman ever finally get her NHS weekly pillar 1 antigen test yet to confirm her belief that she was infected late last year?🤢

[Will!]

 

Preacher, there are a few random threads here I've genuinely demonstrated some industry insider knowledge -motor trade for example.  Your "NHS G.P.  Dr Mrs" seems to agree with you on ignoring any containment measures (what could go wrong this family Christmas?) , why not spill the dirt here anonymously-be a whistleblower even.  Why rely on twitter or youtube for primary sources?  

 Did Dr Preacherman ever finally get her NHS weekly pillar 1 antigen test yet to confirm her belief that she was infected late last year?🤢

The average GP won't have access to any "industry insider knowledge".

Here's a recent letter from the National Director for Emergency Planning and Incident Response of NHS England and NHS Improvement if you're interested.

KW_Level 4 letter_4Nov.pdf