Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[The Preacherman]

 

  Doh! Lord HawHaw here again. The Great Preacherman Declaration.

"Stay at home if you mink you might be ill, alternatively go to hospital if you wish" 

 

 Preacher, there are a few random threads here I've genuinely demonstrated some industry insider knowledge -motor trade for example.  Your "NHS G.P.  Dr Mrs" seems to agree with you on ignoring any containment measures (what could go wrong this family Christmas?) , why not spill the dirt here anonymously-be a whistleblower even.  Why rely on twitter or youtube for primary sources?  

 Did Dr Preacherman ever finally get her NHS weekly pillar 1 antigen test yet to confirm her belief that she was infected late last year?🤢

My wife's antigen test was negative but not surprising as it was done 8 months later. One friend of hers who had symptoms in March had a positive and then a later antigen test. 

My wife, like most sane people, agrees that we cannot continue to live like this. It's heartbreaking to hear her tales of patients who've been unable to access secondary care treatment and are left to die or deteriorate.

One shocking case concerns who ended up in ICU with covid in April. It has damaged his lungs but now can't get access to a lung function test and the physio he needs to improve. 

[The Preacherman]

 

If you want to play the WW2 card there are all sorts of things regarded as normal now that would never have been accepted then. To start with the idea of CCTV everywhere would've been regarded as something out of a dystopian science fiction story.

 

Another is that schools never closed during WW2. 

[msi]

 

Another is that schools never closed during WW2. 

Did they have the same number of kids after evacuation and bombing?

[Megadebt]

 

If you want to play the WW2 card there are all sorts of things regarded as normal now that would never have been accepted then. To start with the idea of CCTV everywhere would've been regarded as something out of a dystopian science fiction story.

 

 Seems George Orwell was a prominent anti-gas mask campaigner too at the time,his wartime experiences of consorship and surveillance shaping his later works.  

 Wartime regulations, rationing, blackouts, compulsory ID cards, curfews,censorship of media, mass social observation and continual public information messages, beaches wrapped in barbed wire and mined and foreign aliens interned: ww2 home front civil defence restrictions were pretty severe. Here 's an account of a 14 yr old boy at the time:

 "Another fright I remember well was when I was cycling home to Torquay one night after 7pm and was stopped by special police at Preston gas works and asked what I was doing out. I was told there was a curfew on that night as there was an exercise being carried out; Army v. Home Guard. Nobody told me! It was very dark and of course there were no street lights at that time. When I carried on, past Torquay station and into Avenue Road, I was suddenly, without warning, silently surrounded by men of the regular arm. A revolver was pushed in my ribs and a truncheon was held over my head. Again I was questioned as to my reason for being out and was eventually allowed to ride on, still shaking!"

 One by-product of the London blitz was a severe wake up call for the uk population, the 'phoney war' was over and suddenly became very real for civillians. German war machine only adopted the 'total war' approach when it was too late. 

 If we ever reach NHS max capacity and see a lot of death this winter, public opinion and views on containment will shift again once the bodies start piling up.  

 

[Megadebt]

Doh! can't edit...  a new member subhuman.   

I'm new here, only been around about a decade. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

 Seems George Orwell was a prominent anti-gas mask campaigner too at the time,his wartime experiences of consorship and surveillance shaping his later works.   Wartime regulations, rationing, blackouts, compulsory ID cards, curfews,censorship

................ One by-product of the London blitz was a severe wake up call for the uk population, the 'phoney war' was over and suddenly became very real for civillians. German war machine only adopted the 'total war' approach when it was too late. 

 If we ever reach NHS max capacity and see a lot of death this winter, public opinion and views on containment will shift again once the bodies start piling up.  

 

I’m not so sure Covid has a Blitz analogy in it - society is far more relaxed about a few tens of thousand over 80 year olds dying of Flu/Covid and there isn’t a direct malicious enemy.

No need for bodies to pile up either, as firstly this is unlikely looking at the data. Secondly, we managed in the BSE crisis to dispose of 4.4m cows, so even a few 10k bodies would hardly be a logistical challenge.

[This time]

 

My wife's antigen test was negative but not surprising as it was done 8 months later. One friend of hers who had symptoms in March had a positive and then a later antigen test. 

My wife, like most sane people, agrees that we cannot continue to live like this. It's heartbreaking to hear her tales of patients who've been unable to access secondary care treatment and are left to die or deteriorate.

One shocking case concerns who ended up in ICU with covid in April. It has damaged his lungs but now can't get access to a lung function test and the physio he needs to improve. 

I've been waiting for a lung function test for about that long too. Capacity is massively down because it's an aerosol generating procedure. If they do 12 hour days then they can do 4 tests per day when they previously could have done about 50 in that time so they need 12 times as much equipment just to do the same number of tests as before. Then you've got to add in the backlog from when they had to shut down testing earlier in the year (if they don't have enough FFP3 masks left over after ICU staff have been equipped then they'll need to stop again) plus all of the extra patients with lungs newly buggered by covid. Trust me when I tell you that nobody who gets hypoxic just sitting on the sofa wants to go for lung function testing if proper infection control procedures aren't in place.

[The Preacherman]

 

I've been waiting for a lung function test for about that long too. Capacity is massively down because it's an aerosol generating procedure. If they do 12 hour days then they can do 4 tests per day when they previously could have done about 50 in that time so they need 12 times as much equipment just to do the same number of tests as before. Then you've got to add in the backlog from when they had to shut down testing earlier in the year (if they don't have enough FFP3 masks left over after ICU staff have been equipped then they'll need to stop again) plus all of the extra patients with lungs newly buggered by covid. Trust me when I tell you that nobody who gets hypoxic just sitting on the sofa wants to go for lung function testing if proper infection control procedures aren't in place.

Write to your MP - tell them how long you've being waiting and how your health and wellbeing has been suffering in the meantime. We can't stop treatment of non-covid conditions because of covid. 

[Will!]

 

Write to your MP - tell them how long you've being waiting and how your health and wellbeing has been suffering in the meantime. We can't stop treatment of non-covid conditions because of covid. 

That shows you don't understand what an aerosol generating procedure is.  Perhaps you should ask your wife.

[This time]

 

Write to your MP - tell them how long you've being waiting and how your health and wellbeing has been suffering in the meantime. We can't stop treatment of non-covid conditions because of covid. 

What is my MP going to do about it? Magic up 12 times the testing equipment plus some extra for the long Covid patients? If they just went back to doing 50 tests a day than I wouldn't go because my lungs are buggered enough without catching covid on top.

[swankyman]

Another ad on YouTube:

This must be totally rubbish surely.

[miguel]

Yes, coz some folk have the great notion of breathing through their mouth?

[swankyman]

 

Yes, coz some folk have the great notion of breathing through their mouth?

But if masks are supposed to 'reduce' the infection rate, then people should be forced to use this spray too.

N.B. I do think it's b s though.

[swankyman]

 

But if masks are supposed to 'reduce' the infection rate, then people should be forced to use this spray too.

N.B. I do think it's b s though.

In fact this country has been stupid for many years now and has been missing a trick.

Masks and this spray should be mandatory from now on, even after covid is gone, to reduce the flu and pneumonia deaths. It's really not fair that we only care about Covid-19 associated deaths is it?

I'm been sarcastic, but really why not?

[Peter Hun]

 

Another ad on YouTube:

This must be totally rubbish surely.

You can already get a nasal spray that kills cold viruses, Vicks First Defence

Read more: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/05/coronavirus-how-you-can-protect-yourself/ - Which?

 

I used it for colds, given early it seems to work

 

[swankyman]

 

You can already get a nasal spray that kills cold viruses, Vicks First Defence

Read more: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/05/coronavirus-how-you-can-protect-yourself/ - Which?

 

I used it for colds, given early it seems to work

 

Nasal defence sprays Products such as Vicks First Defence nasal spray claim to trap and neutralise viruses in the nose before they have a chance to develop and spread. Currently, the jury is out on their effectiveness and evidence is still limited, but it’s possible they could act as a prophylactic for a short period of time.

If there is any chance of a possible positive effect then it should be mandatory for anyone entering a building
 

[Peter Hun]

 

Nasal defence sprays Products such as Vicks First Defence nasal spray claim to trap and neutralise viruses in the nose before they have a chance to develop and spread. Currently, the jury is out on their effectiveness and evidence is still limited, but it’s possible they could act as a prophylactic for a short period of time.

If there is any chance of a possible positive effect then it should be mandatory for anyone entering a building
 

It raises the acidity in your nose, so using  it too often maybe be problematic as it could be an irritant. I used it for a week or two.

[swankyman]

 

In fact this country has been stupid for many years now and has been missing a trick.

Masks and this spray should be mandatory from now on, even after covid is gone, to reduce the flu and pneumonia deaths. It's really not fair that we only care about Covid-19 associated deaths is it?

I'm been sarcastic, but really why not?

Come on this has to be made law. 2014/2015 flu season killed around 28,000 people

We can't let this happen again. So masks, hand sanitiser, nasal sprays, etc should be mandatory at all times.

If not, why not?

[swankyman]

 

It raises the acidity in your nose, so using  it too often maybe be problematic as it could be an irritant. I used it for a week or two.

 

How does Vicks First Defence work?

Vicks First Defence spray contains a microgel formula that works by trapping, inactivating and helping to remove cold viruses from the nose.

When you spray Vicks first defence into your nose, the microgel coats the nasal lining and acts as a filter. It traps the viruses that cause colds, stopping them from coming into contact with the lining of your nose and infecting cells there. When you blow your nose, you will blow out the viruses trapped in the microgel.

The microgel also reduces the pH inside the nose, which inactivates cold viruses and makes it harder for them to multiply.

 

[swankyman]

 

 

How does Vicks First Defence work?

Vicks First Defence spray contains a microgel formula that works by trapping, inactivating and helping to remove cold viruses from the nose.

When you spray Vicks first defence into your nose, the microgel coats the nasal lining and acts as a filter. It traps the viruses that cause colds, stopping them from coming into contact with the lining of your nose and infecting cells there. When you blow your nose, you will blow out the viruses trapped in the microgel.

The microgel also reduces the pH inside the nose, which inactivates cold viruses and makes it harder for them to multiply.

 

So people should show that their nose is irritated to prove they don't need to use the spray when entering the building.

Maybe put some dye in the spray that only shows up in UV light so they can check you from a distance.

Edited November 8, 2020 by swankyman

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

Nasal defence sprays Products such as Vicks First Defence nasal spray claim to trap and neutralise viruses in the nose before they have a chance to develop and spread. Currently, the jury is out on their effectiveness and evidence is still limited, but it’s possible they could act as a prophylactic for a short period of time.

If there is any chance of a possible positive effect then it should be mandatory for anyone entering a building
 

You mean like masks? What a super idea. 

[swankyman]

 

You mean like masks? What a super idea. 

Extra.

Every little bit helps.

I mean the juries still out on masks in the real world. Lab yes, but real world, no.

I'm obviously been sarcastic. But also trying to emphasise a 'valid' point.

[Peter Hun]

 

 

Apparently when faced with a new coronavirus hat we have no vaccine, cure or treatment the solution is to completely close the borders, no exceptions. Pity they didn't do this in January 2020 when faced with that virus.

Coronavirus: Hauliers included in Denmark restrictions

Freight drivers who are not UK citizens and have been through Denmark in the last fortnight are warned they will be turned away from the British border.

It follows concern over a new coronavirus strain that has spread from mink to humans.

Returning drivers who are UK citizens will have to self-isolate for 14 days along with their households.

The new rules, which began at 04:00 GMT on Sunday, follow a ban on non-UK citizens coming to the UK from Denmark.

Any UK citizens who have travelled to Denmark must isolate for 14 days, along with their household.

Passenger planes and ships carrying freight from Denmark will also not be allowed to dock at English ports.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54861880

[swankyman]

 

 

 

Apparently when faced with a new coronavirus hat we have no vaccine, cure or treatment the solution is to completely close the borders, no exceptions. Pity they didn't do this in January 2020 when faced with that virus.

Coronavirus: Hauliers included in Denmark restrictions

Freight drivers who are not UK citizens and have been through Denmark in the last fortnight are warned they will be turned away from the British border.

It follows concern over a new coronavirus strain that has spread from mink to humans.

Returning drivers who are UK citizens will have to self-isolate for 14 days along with their households.

The new rules, which began at 04:00 GMT on Sunday, follow a ban on non-UK citizens coming to the UK from Denmark.

Any UK citizens who have travelled to Denmark must isolate for 14 days, along with their household.

Passenger planes and ships carrying freight from Denmark will also not be allowed to dock at English ports.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54861880

And what's the problem with this new strain?

https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/

WHO risk assessment

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, change over time. SARS-CoV-2 strains infecting minks, which are subsequently transmitted to humans, may have acquired unique combinations of mutations. In order to fully understand the impact of specific mutations, advanced laboratory studies are required. These investigations take time and are done in close collaboration between different research groups.

The recent findings reported by the Danish Public Health Authority (Statens Serum Institut) in Denmark related to the novel variant of SARS-CoV-2 identified in humans need to be confirmed and further evaluated to better understand any potential implications in terms of transmission, clinical presentation, diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccine development.

lets over react to everything. 

Edited November 8, 2020 by swankyman

[swankyman]

 

And what's the problem with this new strain?

https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/

WHO risk assessment

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, change over time. SARS-CoV-2 strains infecting minks, which are subsequently transmitted to humans, may have acquired unique combinations of mutations. In order to fully understand the impact of specific mutations, advanced laboratory studies are required. These investigations take time and are done in close collaboration between different research groups.

The recent findings reported by the Danish Public Health Authority (Statens Serum Institut) in Denmark related to the novel variant of SARS-CoV-2 identified in humans need to be confirmed and further evaluated to better understand any potential implications in terms of transmission, clinical presentation, diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccine development.

lets over react to everything. 

Maybe it's more mild and should be allowed to spread to act as a vaccine.