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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
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HOLA446
 

apart from a certain island in the North Sea...

That one is accessed by boat, train, and aeroplane. And has a very porous border.

The number of people coming and going in UK per week is higher thanost of their total populations.

 

Edited by swankyman
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Of course shoving dodgy data to get a lockdown doesnt matter as a lockdown is totally impact free.....

Again expected from randoms on the internet but data picking and dodgy cut offs from Hancock and co...

 

Regulator gets involved in coronavirus data row

 

The Office for Statistics Regulation has got involved in the row about the way the government is presenting coronavirus data.

At the weekend, when the government announced England’s second lockdown it presented modelling suggesting the UK could soon see 4,000 deaths a day.

The problem was that the model was out of date. It gave the impression that the number of deaths was four times higher than it currently was.

Now the OSR has called for greater transparency, including being clear about what assumptions are being made and providing full access to the data being presented.

But this is not the only chart that looks like it is making the picture worse than it is.

Another one also used on Saturday - and again by NHS England on Wednesday - suggests we are weeks away from hospital capacity being breached.

This chart is also out of date with the modelling turning out to have overestimated the numbers in hospital by early November.

Does this matter? It may just mean capacity is breached slightly later than suggested.

But it does mean there is more wriggle room in the system than suggested. When the public is being asked to make such huge sacrifices, questions are quite rightly being asked.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54818615

Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears

I think china were killing dogs at one point, so best hide your pets.

Ssshhh, Don't say that. We'll have massive slaughter of every animal in the UK if Mr Ferguson hears about it. Lol

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Ssshhh, Don't say that. We'll have massive slaughter of every animal in the UK if Mr Ferguson hears about it. Lol

Apparently lots of chickens get slaughtered in Europe.  Bird flu from emigrating birds.  I wonder what's happening to Turkey's. 

Can't wait to see a press conference explaing why theirs no turkey for Xmas.

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Apparently lots of chickens get slaughtered in Europe.  Bird flu from emigrating birds.  I wonder what's happening to Turkey's. 

Can't wait to see a press conference explaing why theirs no turkey for Xmas.

Lol. Turkey is well over rated as a meat. Boring and dry, such a disappointment for Xmas dinner.

Lots of cheap fur coats and handbags though. 

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HOLA4413
 

Best put down ever,  I like your posts, well considered, thought provoking, succinct and a great writing style.    🍭

 

What if just one black swan in 7 billion that could potentially make billions turn grey? 

Thank you!

Popper? It's the idea of a philosopher telling scientists how to do their job that most rankles.

I like to quote Feynman whenever I'm confronted by one of these periphrastic windbags, 'Philosophers kick up a lot of dust and then complain they can't see anything.'

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Thank you!

Popper? It's the idea of a philosopher telling scientists how to do their job that most rankles.

I like to quote Feynman whenever I'm confronted by one of these periphrastic windbags, 'Philosophers kick up a lot of dust and then complain they can't see anything.'

I like this quote, so true. An intellectual onanism. 

Feynman lectures were the best physics books I ever read. I used them to prepare for my A-levels. 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54818615

Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears

I think china were killing dogs at one point, so best hide your pets.

 

 

Ssshhh, Don't say that. We'll have massive slaughter of every animal in the UK if Mr Ferguson hears about it. Lol

 

 

 

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Did anyone notice on Wednesday the commons had a debate the decision thats already been made?   There was the stirrings of descent within the Tory backbenches, and this time most notably Teresa May.

Firstly on standing up to make her point, Boris made a run for the exit....  Secondly, While Desmond Swane adds theatre to his covid speeches the usually mild mannered May was openly very critical of the data and graphs. She also highlighted blatant dishonesty where she officially asked about Liverpool being locked down despite falling numbers, it was due to students not presenting for testing -  Problem was all age groups were falling.

Transcript here for those interested:   https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2020-11-04a.341.1

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WRONG. The science of Zero Covid is now established beyond peradventure. Its success has been proven across a range of societies, cultures and geographies. The longer you ignore it the more likely you are to find yourself in the bottom right-hand corner of that marshmallow chart.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

Zero Covid a fantasy of the looney left. 

 

 

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Did anyone notice on Wednesday the commons had a debate the decision thats already been made?   There was the stirrings of descent within the Tory backbenches, and this time most notably Teresa May.

Firstly on standing up to make her point, Boris made a run for the exit....  Secondly, While Desmond Swane adds theatre to his covid speeches the usually mild mannered May was openly very critical of the data and graphs. She also highlighted blatant dishonesty where she officially asked about Liverpool being locked down despite falling numbers, it was due to students not presenting for testing -  Problem was all age groups were falling.

Transcript here for those interested:   https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2020-11-04a.341.1

Theresa May demolished the preposterous claims of Vallance and Whitty. Disgraceful of Johnson to walk out of the chamber like that. 

 

 

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I agree, I'll be having roast beef on Christmas day.

Lots of cheap fur coats and handbags, but no knickers!

Yes, I hate turkey too. Rarely is it well cooked. May be a return to a traditional goose is needed!

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Zero Covid a fantasy of the looney left. 

This is one of the reasons at the heart of why this nation is failing to deal with the pandemic. The conflict between the perceived liberty of the individual verses the responsibility of the individual within society. Even in the face of death, the hint of such practical socialism is apparently too unpalatable for some to comprehend. When the split along such lines has weakened our response to the virus, to dilute the effectiveness of our strategy, costing far more lives and trashing the economy in the process. Evidence is clear, yet the stupidity continues...

 

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What is this about? Did the spreadsheet run out of columns again or are they out of deaths to report? 

 

7F9B0E69-0B4E-4D5E-BB66-0B4C4B50AC06.jpeg

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