IMHAL Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) RQ said "Exactly the same is true of being in the EU too though. Some people argue purely on economic terms, but I've spoken to others who simply like the concept for intangible reasons. You'll never get an answer to anything "as a nation" because there will always be lots of different people with different views and expectations about anything. Nations are made up of individuals with widely varying views on just about everything." It would be very entertaining to have you in on a planning session. So we don't really know the drivers...therefore we don't know on what basis to leave the EU.....and when we have picked a random exit mechanism....then we will never know if it hits the spot........ the advantage being that we will never know if we have failed. The second advantage is that even a monkey could execute the process.....which is just as well. Edited February 13, 2019 by IMHAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: Who’s the one quoting Scandinavian academic experts, and who’s the one throwing around unfounded insults? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-09/greenland-the-only-country-to-have-left-the-eu/8005036 "For Greenland it's not entirely an economic question but also a question of sovereignty … In that sense the crucial concept is national identity and the idea that control over our own resources is important," said Dr Gad. Greenland is not in any practical way sovereign, it is a client state of Denmark. The claim to "sovereignty" was essentially a way of extracting a little more money from the Danish government via fishing rights. Whether even at this level it worked or not is debatable as the Greenlanders allowed overfishing which resulted in a collapse in stocks and as this was addressed by reducing quotas in line with scientific advice and them losing control over the setting of quotas. From wiki: "The economy of Greenland can be characterized as small, mixed and vulnerable.]Greenland's economy consists of a large public sector and foreign trade. This has resulted in an economy with periods of strong growth, considerable inflation, unemployment problems and extreme dependence on capital inflow from Denmark and on outside, mainly Danish, skilled labor. GDP per capita is close to the average for European economies, but the economy is critically dependent upon substantial support from the Danish government, which supplies about half the revenues of the home rule government, which in turn employs 10,307 Greenlanders [5] out of 25,620 currently in employment (2015)." Maybe there are some parallels for the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Are you taking the "'benefit' exclusively means 'gives us more money'" line too? Everything the whole package......will it give us new freedoms, to move easily and affordably to Europe, less bureaucracy and red tape, better choices, less inflation, better jobs and job security, better invested NHS for all to use without charge, better for our farmers and small businesses, better quality local food that we can all afford to buy, future energy security, safety of people and country, lower house prices....... Or will it only the big corporations that benefit, cheap and nasty imports from far flung parts of the world creating CO2 ......all the best stuff only the rich can afford, only the rich able to travel......will brexit make as a smaller closed in country, where fewer venture out of their village......going backwards or forwards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, IMHAL said: RQ said "Exactly the same is true of being in the EU too though. Some people argue purely on economic terms, but I've spoken to others who simply like the concept for intangible reasons. You'll never get an answer to anything "as a nation" because there will always be lots of different people with different views and expectations about anything. Nations are made up of individuals with widely varying views on just about everything." It would be very entertaining to have you in on a planning session. So we don't really know the drivers...therefore we don't know on what basis to leave the EU.....and when we have picked a random exit mechanism....then we will never know if it hits the spot........ the advantage being that we will never know if we have failed. The second advantage is that even a monkey could execute the process.....which is just as well. Such a planning session would require taking on board a wide variety of views and desires and trying to accommodate them as best as possible. A very difficult task that's impossible to do perfectly, but "you'll never please everyone" isn't an excuse for inaction. If the boot was on the other foot I'd ask where was the planning for dealing with the increasing dissatisfaction with the EU, that it clearly wasn't satisfying lots of people with disparate views, including many who originally wanted to join it. And that should've been happening long before we got to 2016. What you're describing is what governments have to do about everything. Edited February 13, 2019 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) Euro-area industrial output falls: worst since 2009. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/industrial-production Edited February 13, 2019 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Such a planning session would require taking on board a wide variety of views and desires and trying to accommodate them as best as possible. A very difficult task that's impossible to do perfectly, but "you'll never please everyone" isn't an excuse for inaction. If the boot was on the other foot I'd ask where was the planning for dealing with the increasing dissatisfaction with the EU, that it clearly wasn't satisfying lots of people with disparate views, including many who originally wanted to join it. And that should've been happening long before we got to 2016. What you're describing is what governments have to do about everything. We are not talking about inaction. ...... a plethora of expectations was allowed during the Brexit referendum, which were not only unrealistic, but unachievable and contradictory. This was the first mistake, when you have done that then you have opened up Pandora's box because, as you say, everyone expects wildly different things and you end up disappointing many. I agree ..... the drivers behind our action should have been sorted out way before 2016. Not 3 1/2 year after the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, crouch said: Again you're like all Remainers you can see many years into the future. God I wish I could see into the middle of next week. This is just the sort of absurdity and pretence that weakens the Remain case "We all know it's an absurd decision and here's the incontrovertible evidence!" Some Leavers may gloat; I don't; I would much prefer a prosperous and growing Europe which would ease our own transition considerably; but we won't get it because the EU is unsustainable and it's not just the economic cycle. Some things are much easier to foresee than others. Leaving the EU having a short/medium negative effect on our economy being one of them. Brexiters would do better by accepting this and preparing people for the impact of Leaving. Pretending these negative effects are not baked in will leave them with the choice of admitting they were wrong or creating an enemy who can be blamed for the "failure" of Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 £500m for UK engineering: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-wins-500m-global-f-35-support-work/ And another $323m for UK engineering: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-firm-meggitt-wins-323m-deal-with-us-defense-logistics-agency/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, Confusion of VIs said: Some things are much easier to foresee than others. Leaving the EU having a short/medium negative effect on our economy being one of them. Brexiters would do better by accepting this and preparing people for the impact of Leaving. Pretending these negative effects are not baked in will leave them with the choice of admitting they were wrong or creating an enemy who can be blamed for the "failure" of Brexit. Most expected short term economic falls - most of the numbers have turned out better than Leavers expected! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 50 minutes ago, crouch said: I read Karl Popper before you were probably born! I confess I've forgotten most - but not all. Well I was born in 1950. How about you? NB I wasn't criticising you at all, just underlining your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Euro-area industrial output falls: worst since 2009. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/industrial-production I see this as a foretelling of the expected, long overdue global recession. But I also see those dips multiplied at least twice for the UK. Those gloating at whatever happens in Europe, beware. The overlay of recession with Brexit is going to be a humdinger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, crouch said: A forecast into the future is not the same as a prophesy. The first example was a cardinal forecast which is what is dubious and what Remainers continuously indulge in (as admittedly do some Leavers). A prophesy, the second example, is simply saying that something will happen in the future without saying for example that it will happen by March 2025. A prophesy is that" a child will be born in Bethlehem". A prediction is that "a child will be born in Bethlehem on 25 May 2020 and will weigh 3.2 kilos and have blue eyes and a short left leg". See the difference? This is a sophistication that you obviously do not appreciate and is just what I would expect from you. Who needs forecasts? Here's trailer of the full Brexit movie. We haven't left yet. Doesn't look promising does it? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1087666286648283136.html? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, jonb2 said: I see this as a foretelling of the expected, long overdue global recession. But I also see those dips multiplied at least twice for the UK. Those gloating at whatever happens in Europe, beware. The overlay of recession with Brexit is going to be a humdinger. Irrespective of what happens with Europe where where going to have a humdinger. I have been on this website for ages a piffling 20-30% crash and the whole system went down and the banks got nationalised and bailout out. Whats going to happen when HPC is right and house prices correct to even 4/5 times household income. Those 30+£ million houses in London could be 15 million and what difference would it make to 99.99% of people yet the banks would be buggered. If we stay in the EU (or indeed if brexit never happened) can anyone promise we wont have a humdinger either way? Edited February 13, 2019 by Fromage Frais Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, jonb2 said: Who needs forecasts? Here's trailer of the full Brexit movie. We haven't left yet. Doesn't look promising does it? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1087666286648283136.html? How about this for an angle. its all ******ed and its all going down. Better we go cold turkey first than bail out others and go down still addicted. Second slowest runner in a bear attack situation. Edited February 13, 2019 by Fromage Frais Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 13 hours ago, smash said: Where has the EU listed 5 agreements with 5 separate South African states? In the list of EU trade deals I've seen one of the 36 is agreement with the South Africa Development Community. Your website appears to have sneakily counted the 5 states in the SA customs union (a different but related thing from the SADC) and claimed that the EU counts the deal 5 times. Not even a distortion, an outright lie. I spotted that straight away how could you not of? But there are indeed 36 and not 70 ? Where is this list of EU trade deals can you give us a link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said: Irrespective of what happens with Europe where where going to have a humdinger. I have been on this website for ages a piffling 20-30% crash and the whole system went down and the banks got nationalised and bailout out. Whats going to happen when HPC is right and house prices correct to even 4/5 times household income. Those 30+£ million houses in London could be 15 million and what difference would it make to 99.99% of people yet the banks would be buggered. If we stay in the EU (or indeed if brexit never happened) can anyone promise we wont have a humdinger either way? This I feel is valid. We had a Cameron led government backed by huge banking and corporate support post-2008 because they essentially wanted to get back to "business as usual" as soon as possible. They wanted the can kicked and the gravy trained propped up. We got austerity (which has saved very little, and actually cost more to implement than it saved in places) because of a deliberate shift and focus of ideology. Attention turned away from the financial district of the city and focused instead toward council estates and Jeremy Kyle. But NOTHING really got fixed. Help To Buy and a lot of the props have of course just made it worse. And that's got F all to do with the EU and Brexit. Although I guess it potentially highlights how inept things might get when we hand this lot even more control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Euro-area industrial output falls: worst since 2009. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/industrial-production Is this "due to Brexit" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Chunketh said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47214093 Yvonne Stone, 62, is one of the younger members of the club and tells me she voted for Brexit: "I've been here for three years and have no plans to go back to the UK - but it will depend on what happens. "When I voted to leave I didn't think it would change anything for my rights to live here. We like it here and we don't want to go back but if I don't get my pension we might not have a choice." ROFL There appears to be no end to a supply of these leave voting thickos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, kzb said: But there are indeed 36 and not 70 ? Where is this list of EU trade deals can you give us a link? It's all further up on this thread, plus the information you need to understand that most deals about trade are not described as trade deals; and why reading the sort of biased nonsense you have taking to posting is not going to help you understand the topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, jonb2 said: I see this as a foretelling of the expected, long overdue global recession. But I also see those dips multiplied at least twice for the UK. Those gloating at whatever happens in Europe, beware. The overlay of recession with Brexit is going to be a humdinger. The optics are terrible. Sensibly, both sides would agree to postpone negotiations until the worst of the downturn has passed. Edited February 13, 2019 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, kzb said: Is this "due to Brexit" ? It's worth noting that at present UK data still contributes to that downturn. (It's the UK graph I've posted below). The biggest kicker is from Germany though, simply because they manufacture almost 4 times what the UK does. In fact their dip almost perfectly mirrors the Eurozone's drop. (second graph). Edited February 13, 2019 by byron78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: You may laugh, but it just goes to show that people were misled by the leave campaign in 2016. Yes, Cameron and Obama said not to leave, but , quite frankly, being told what to do by a discredited PM and a POTUS probably put peoples backs up and had an opposite effect. Having said that, my guess is that the Spanish will sort something out for the expats. All that pension money being spent in their economy is not to be despised. They are not expats they are immigrants. It is time to stop this one rule/label for some and another for others. It simply feeds the British sense of superiority, hence comments like "freedom of movement for proper Europeans". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: It's all further up on this thread, plus the information you need to understand that most deals about trade are not described as trade deals; and why reading the sort of biased nonsense you have taking to posting is not going to help you understand the topic. I don't remember it being discussed in any detail, and I've been a regular visitor almost since the start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: They are not expats they are immigrants. It is time to stop this one rule/label for some and another for others. It simply feeds the British sense of superiority, hence comments like "freedom of movement for proper Europeans". Most of them are pensioners. They don't take jobs and they support the local economies. Their healthcare is paid for by the UK, so the healthcare provision in these otherwise backwater locations is supported by UK money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, kzb said: Is this "due to Brexit" ? It's not all doom and gloom but uncertainty over Brexit must be a factor. Quote While the headline figure was much worse than anticipated, durable goods production increased in December and intermediate goods production was flat after a sharp decline in November. Out of the large economies, both Germany and France saw production increase, while Spain, Italy and the Netherlands contributed to the decline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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