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Everything posted by byron78

  1. It's a complete myth the majority of world trade is WTO. I don't know why it's been presented as truth. It isn't. Yes, the majority of countries are WTO and a lot of lower level trade does go through that route. But name me 3 countries that don't at least also have singular or multiplicite trade deals in place as well. Actually I can't think of a single one. This is why as a Leaver a big section of Leave now really worries me. Lies, misinformation, and willful ignorance is becoming all too commonplace.
  2. I'm coming from it from a position of sanity. Sounds disastrous. If you can't imagine the problems (and price increases on most things) all this would cause then I'm beyond helping you I'm afraid. No Deal is an absolute noose of fees and red tape.
  3. As I said, it's sweet. But I've lived through a world war and a lot of other huge "biggie" changes in my life. I can tell you now nothing will change. The people with the power and the money will still have the power and the money. Our electoral system still means a lot of people effectively can't vote for change. I think we'll end up with a Tory party that can't be voted out once Scotland leaves, which should make it cheaper and easier for the people with the power and money to doubledown on making sure the system looks after them. Brexit is far from a revolution. My dad came back from war having killed for his country. That's when we saw the biggest change - he went to Winchester college and was "upper class" but after spending years fighting alongside the poor he demanded and supported big changes for them. Now that was a change. I think a lot of younger Tories forget our top rate tax was 70% or above under most Tory governments post-WW2 as a result of traditional Tories being okay with redistributing and rebuilding a more equal society (it was also 60% for most of the time under Thatcher). Rees Mogg is not a change like that. Rees Mogg is the sort that would happily blow things back to before WW2 and the concessions people like my father made afterwards as a consequence. We're going backwards not forwards and that doesn't feel like much of a revolution or a breaking of the status quo to me.
  4. Yes you're right of course. I can just go on why I voted Leave and why those around me my age largely did as well. I do think there was a swelling up of resentment by some. I know a lovely older lady, church every week, does loads for her community, but she uses the "N" word like nobodies business. She begrudges not being able to be as openly prejudice anymore and as a result can't wait until anyone with darker skin than her gets fired into the sun come Brexit. I'm not sure what part of the EU she thinks all these Indians and fuzzy wuzzies are coming from. Probably Greece.
  5. This thread is interesting. I think it's quite sweet some think Brexit will ring the changes. I can't really see how. I would imagine it'll solidify power in the hands of those who already have if more than loosening their grip. Our electoral system in the UK is such that very few live in constituencies where they effectively have a "choice" who to vote for. Most are safe seats. If Scotland breaks away to stay in the EU our democracy will likely be even wonkier. The status quo is probably just going to get even more static, with even less outside influence. You get healthy capitalism from competition at the end of the day. The less competitive your economy, the less healthy your capitalism. I can't see how isolationism will deliver that. It was always the downside of Brexit for me. I just wanted fewer immigrants which is why I voted Leave. I'm probably a bit racist (I'm 79 this year) but at least I'm honest about it.
  6. Oh stop it. I've been a Tory 60 years. It's ALWAYS had its Rees Mogg and Enoch Powell sorts. Thatcher would have hated Rees Mogg. She did everything she could to reduce the old Etonian sorts within the party. Was she not a proper Conservative? What on earth has Rees Mogg suggested that will help the poor? Bloke is the epitome of tax avoidance, overseas investment, and private charity before public help. None of that helped the poor much in the Victorian era, which is frankly where Mogg belongs. Should add I also find the perception of the Tories as a "low tax" party odd. The top rate of income tax has only ever been lower once (shortly before the 1920s financial crash). The top rate under the majority of Thatcher's reign was 60%. We've still actually had the lowest period of top rate tax under New Labour oddly enough (1997-2010). It's quite a modern thing. Certainly not a traditional Conservative thing. I was paying 70% or above under Tory governments before the drop to 60% under Thatcher. Why then do we all feel so strained? Corporation Tax is less than a third what it was when I started out. And that's for those that don't (legally) avoid most of it.Whereas "stealth" taxes and VAT etc have all gone a bit mental.
  7. Read the Sovereign Individual. Seriously. Rees-Mogg doesn't give a toss about the UK. He's all about personal profit and the maintenance of privilege for the privileged. He's not particularly popular down the Con club tbh. Tends to be the older types he appeals to (I'm 78 and a spring chicken compared to some!) I suppose what I'm saying is a lot of us on the right can also see him for what he is. Thankfully.
  8. Skimmed this the other day. I'll be honest - if I read that before the referendum I'd have voted Remain. Essentially "there can't be a plan because there are too many variables and it's complicated". No shit Sherlock.
  9. I *think* you're probably right. I hope you are. But I feel like more Leavers need to own this mess (like I'm trying to!) We've blamed all and sundry for it (remoaners, Brexit too soft/Brexit too hard etc etc). The fact is I'm starting to think an issue as complex as this was well beyond me if I'm honest. I'm not bright. But I'm brighter than my poor nephew in Swindon who's losing his job...
  10. Cummings and Banks? Christ. What was the plan? Give Britain to Russia?
  11. It's absolutely mad that we're a few weeks away from no deal and there are so many cheerleaders for it. This government is incompetent but they're being egged on by a lot of nutters who have absolutely no grounding as to the reality of what they're rabidly clamouring for. Imports more expensive. Exports more expensive. If no deal happens people will lose jobs. Others will lose their lives (if various medicines aren't forthcoming etc). When I voted Leave I voted thinking there was a competent workable plan. There plainly isn't outside of La La Land at the moment.
  12. Their EU base in Belgium. Logistics and old motorcycle plant (which now makes auto parts and other bits). Internal rumour I've heard from those in Swindon is that they might be a new Eastern European plant in the offing.
  13. I've a nephew who works for Honda in Swindon. Voted Leave. Think most did (Swindon in general was a "Leave" town). It's not Brexit 100% that's caused this, rather the threat/potential for a no deal Brexit. Of course Honda would leave if a 10% tariff on their exports looked remotely likely in the not too distant future. One of the reasons anyone who backs a no-deal Brexit tends to be deluded/a bit mad. Big tariffs on pretty much all our imports and exports nukes so many jobs it's unthinkable really. WTO terms are frankly a bit pants.
  14. Rees Mogg is more dangerous than Corbyn IMHO. State of British politics today...
  15. Given those 3, I'd take Remain all day long. (Voted Leave, but the first 2 options are bonkers).
  16. Christ. Didn't know that. Surely a lot of that is the US using the UK as a hub into the EU markets? Total guess, but I'd presume we have the majority of service exports from the EU area to the US? Then again, even if we do lose most of those, is it actually us real people that'll suffer, or just our elite and their tax havens?
  17. That would make sense. Bit of a worry if the majority of what we export to the US is services tbh. Ireland must be licking their chops...
  18. Source? I've only ever seen UK exports to the US given as around 50 billion. Official 2015 stats give it as 45 billion. Handy wiki here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_United_Kingdom
  19. Is there actually any WTO country that isn't signed up to a bilateral or regional trade agreement? I'm not sure there actually is. And most of those cost something to partake in. So I'm intrigued as to what we could negotiate trade-wise with the EU (and beyond) given how poorly Brexit is doing at the moment. I suspect that we're unlikely to pick up any trade deals from outside the EU that would be on better terms than the ones we're walking away from (unless it's with a country that does more trade with us than the EU as a bloc of course). Leaving is fundamentally an immigration issue for most of us still I think. I can't see how being isolated in the world will benefit us in any other way and that wasn't why I voted Leave.
  20. Yes, I have no idea why many would prefer WTO. I do hear it a lot. I think a lot of disaster capitalists are pushing that and many seem happy to swallow anything at the moment. I'm not sure I get the "there couldn't have been a plan" argument still. The terms and legal position with regards leaving was (is) already pretty clearly laid out. Even if you can't prepare fully in those circumstances you should at least be aware of the default and how to navigate that. What scares me is how many Leavers STILL aren't aware of this.
  21. I honestly don't know. I expect to see my 80th birthday before we leave now. I sort of expect I'll be dead long before anything much actually happens. I wouldn't underestimate most Leavers resolve to cut off their nose to spite their faces though. I'm fine with being wrong. I have grandkids and see them learn via their mistakes every day. I think a lot people get to an age where they simply can't accept they were either wrong or misled though. And, right now, I think that's what I was when I voted Leave.
  22. With respect that makes little sense to me. I voted Leave because I thought there was a plan. David Davis and a lot of others told me it would be a doddle etc etc. I understand it's now the government's mandate to sort this all out but I can't understand why the people who pushed for it for decades didn't have at least some semblance of a coherent (and realistic) idea about how to play this. (And no. I don't believe "no deal" is either coherent or realistic. WTO terms aren't actually particularly good and basically involve tariffs being applied left, right, and centre.)
  23. If would be nice if some of people and parties/factions within parties had prepared at least something wouldn't it? Farage had at least 20 years. Many Tory Leavers have been pushing to leave the EU for even longer. Nobody seems to have anything beyond a wishlist. A lot aren't even possessed with the correct facts and figures, and alternative savings barely come up (who here knows the UK government spends 3.5K per household on subsidies and props to various businesses for example? Absolutely dwarfs our EU contribution.) It's puerile and a bit embarrassing frankly. As a Leaver, I for one hold them in contempt for it. I really don't think it's all the Remainers/the EUs fault Brexit isn't working out. Quite the opposite actually.
  24. I've heard loads of potential Leave benefits at the Conservative club. I'm a Leaver myself. Have to say though, I'm yet to hear an entirely logical or workable Leave plan yet. A lot of them are essentially wish lists or ideals. Which was the case for me (I know what I wanted and what I voted for). I now know some of that isn't possible, logical, or entirely accurate. But what's really surprised me is that NONE of that matters to most Leavers I know. It's almost a religious or theological position - literally nothing any Remainer says or does can sway or persuade us otherwise. And that's a problem really isn't it? Most (all really) of us Tory Leavers wanted immigration controlled. None (or very few) would be prepared to pay higher taxes to train our own and also police our borders more effectively (and consequently expensively). Very few realise UK immigration really has bugger all to do with the EU as we take the majority from outside Europe and always have etc etc. It's a quandary and I really can't see how anyone is going to be happy with whatever we end up with. May I ask what you personally want/hope for?

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