"Brexit has failed" - what happens next

[Confusion of VIs]

Now that even its backers admit that the promised (but always undeliverable) Brexit has not been delivered, what comes next.  

If we carry on our current course (as the BBC has belatedly noticed) we are going to lose large areas of our manurfacturing industry as rules of origin come in next year.

By mid 2024, it will be clear that the Brexit related damage to the economy is far from over and that hundreds of thousands of jobs in the auto industry alone are at risk. 

Perhaps the tories will perform a U turn and build a closer relationship with the EU in return for them dropping/amending the rules of origin.

Perhaps Farrage will return as head of the Reform party.

Perhaps Labour will perform a U turn and seek to undo Brexit.    

 

[MarkG]

Neither Labour nor Tories wanted Brexit to work. They've done everything possible to sabotage it so they can push the UK back into the EU.

[msi]

3 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Neither Labour nor Tories wanted Brexit to work. They've done everything possible to sabotage it so they can push the UK back into the EU.

You can't make something work that you can't describe. 

That's why Brexit loons now cry We WoZ RoBbEd Of OuR dReAm because, in the end, that's all you had. A mythical unicorn-fart of a dream that had no chance of coming close to the vicissitudes of reality

[SickOfWaiting]

Its far worse than Brexit failed, its a case the entire country and economy is failing.

Its all being lined up nicely for Sunak to go along with the Libs promise of a new referendum to take is into the EU and join the Euro, yet this will merely continue the decline as the major nations in Europe are all imploding at the same time.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

I hoped that P.M. Theresa May would be able to take a Swiss approach to not being in the EU (from what I saw on a business trip they are in the E.U. In everything but name). Instead we ended up with Boris who had made a career out of slagging off the E.U. And who I suspect wanted to make a trade deal with his mate Trump.

p.s. On that subject I have looked at the Aldi USA website a couple of times and despite a similar reputation for "low prices" I was surprised how high some of the prices are (more than in the U.K.)

[Insane]

8 minutes ago, SickOfWaiting said:

yet this will merely continue the decline as the major nations in Europe are all imploding at the same time.

Yes

It is quite weird all these people crying as we have left the EU yet so many countries in the EU are in a worse state than the UK.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, MarkG said:

Neither Labour nor Tories wanted Brexit to work. They've done everything possible to sabotage it so they can push the UK back into the EU.

It's fair to say that neither actually wanted Brexit but once it happened they would have wanted it to work if they could have seen how this could be achieved. 

Now the fundamental problem is that in a deglobalising world, being outside of the EU is not a  comfortable place for a European nation to be, CPTPP is not and never will be a substitute.    

 

[Will!]

Sky News: Nigel Farage says Brexit has 'failed' and economy 'has not benefited' but Downing Street disagrees

I did like this quote:

Quote

What Brexit has proved, I'm afraid, is that our politicians are about as useless as the commissioners in Brussels were.

That part at least is true.

[msi]

2 minutes ago, Will! said:

Sky News: Nigel Farage says Brexit has 'failed' and economy 'has not benefited' but Downing Street disagrees

I did like this quote:

That part at least is true.

"What Brexit has proved, I'm afraid, is that our politicians are about as useless as the commissioners in Brussels were. "

erm Farage being part of said politicians......

[MarkG]

39 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It's fair to say that neither actually wanted Brexit but once it happened they would have wanted it to work if they could have seen how this could be achieved. 

They're both neoliberal parties. Preventing it from working was far more important than not wrecking the economy.

[msi]

10 minutes ago, MarkG said:

They're both neoliberal parties. Preventing it from working was far more important than not wrecking the economy.

You Brexidi*ts did that by making all options mutually exclusive. 

You made your bed, now lie in it

[MARTINX9]

I thought that the reason the NHS was failing to deliver big time at present is because of the politicians overseeing and managing it - so we just need different politicians looking after it.  Not that the NHS itself is the problem.

But the issues with Brexit are entirely down to Brexit and nothing to do with the politicians overseeing and managing it.

Am ( missing something?!

[Casual-observer]

This alludes to the belief the EU succeeded when the reality is for swathes of the UK, joining wrought nothing but decline and that was the relative good times for Europe. 

Brexit failed because Westminster had zero intention in attempting anything radical/different.

They're more obsessed about joining the right talking shops abroad or shelling untold fortunes into warzones far away than addressing 50 years of decline. If only the North had seen half the money we seemingly had to spunk in Afghanistan or Ukraine. 

I said a while ago rich remainers would end up dominating the airtime arguing the toss about rejoining an economic club that's past it's best...and here we are. Will any of this decline be solved by rejoining a club with a declining share of world GDP on even worse terms than before.....the answers no but arrogant remainers will refuse to shut up about their European fetish. 

[Bob8]

3 hours ago, MarkG said:

They're both neoliberal parties. Preventing it from working was far more important than not wrecking the economy.

Just so I understand what it is, can you clarify something, It is only possible (without magic) to have two of the following before they contradict. Which two would you have in your brexit:

- Maintain the integrity of the UK

- Leave the SM and CU

- Maintain the Good Friday Agreement

Thanks!

[Trampa501]

8 hours ago, MarkG said:

Neither Labour nor Tories wanted Brexit to work. They've done everything possible to sabotage it so they can push the UK back into the EU.

Not going to happen. The EU won't want a bunch of blaggers and whiners back, until the boomer generation "they need us more than we need them" have died out, and the country is enthusiastic about rejoining (which may be never).

Strangely Truss had an idea of how to "make Brexit work". How did that get on?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

But "Control of our Borders"

https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/the-united-kingdom's-home-ministry-expects-more-than-one-million-migrants-to-arrive-by-2024/

 

[clarkey]

And what exactly would farage  have done better/differently to the current lot to make a successful venture then. Answers on a postcard

[The Angry Capitalist]

The establishment are pro EU so they are still hopeful of re-joining the BLOC. They don't want Britain independent. The Brexit vote shocked them which shows how out of touch they are with reality.

There is no benefit to joining or being in the EU.

The EU will fail. It's a basket case.

You can't have completely different cultures and countries with different climates such as Greece and Germany having and using the same currency.

They are miles apart in relation to production and work ethic etc.

This is why you have the problems of high national debts such as Italy and Greece who don't work or produce much compared to Germany which has less debts etc.

These problems will exacerbate going forward with a lot of political finger pointing as countries such as Italy and Greece continue to have deficit spending whilst other nations balance their books with jealousy and envy coming into play.

It will be amusing to watch and as interest rates rise with QE now no longer happening the market will be setting the rates of these debtor nations which will put pressure on the ECB to do something.

Yields on Greek debt and Italian debt are absurd and should be much higher. The only way they are paying going to pay their debts is through inflation and once the market realizes this it will get interesting especially if they sniff the possibility of default which is a possibility.

When that happens it is print or die for the EU where the ECB will definitely have to step in as a proper central bank for the BLOC and that is when it will start to unravel as all the countries will want handouts if the ECB becomes lender of last resort to cap yields.

I expect this to happen in our lifetimes. The next 10 years is a possibility but they might come up with a few tricks to keep the EU going for another 20-30 years but that will surprise me if it lasts that long.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Actual brexit and actual democracy ?

Aka a revolution ?

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/17/ftse-100-markets-live-news-unemployment-rise-inflation/

Quote

17-05-2023 09:11

One of the world's largest car manufacturers has urged the Government to renegotiate its Brexit deal with the EU or said it may have to close factories in Britain.

Stellantis - which makes Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat - said present arrangements with the EU pose a "threat to our export business and the sustainability of our UK manufacturing operations".

In a submission to a Commons inquiry into electric car production, seen by the BBC, the carmaker said its UK investments were under threat as a result of the strict terms of the post-Brexit free trade deal.

 

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

Another anecdote. The homebrew company I used to buy from in Ireland used to ship to me in the UK.

https://www.homebrewwest.ie/delivery-14-w.asp

Quote

HomeBrewWest also deliver to:

Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands €15.00 per 20 Kg package
Austria, Poland, Czech, Denmark €20.00 per 20 Kg package
Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia €22.00 per 20 Kg package
Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Spain, Sweden €30.00 per 20 Kg package
Portugal, Finland, Liechtenstein €30.00 per 20 Kg package
UK €99.95.00 per 20 Kg package (includes Brexit processing charges)

One of several companies I have noticed is now either reluctant or no longer shipping to the UK.

I used to buy several items from a large company called Vevor, they now are shipping a vastly reduced range to the UK and I think they will be pulling out soon.

[msi]

7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

I thought that the reason the NHS was failing to deliver big time at present is because of the politicians overseeing and managing it - so we just need different politicians looking after it.  Not that the NHS itself is the problem.

But the issues with Brexit are entirely down to Brexit and nothing to do with the politicians overseeing and managing it.

Am ( missing something?!

As usual yes.  Brexit was a popular decision made that had a mutually exclusive set of definitions to what it was as @Bob8 posted earlier.  All the politicians in the world can't fix that, no wonder all the Brexiters either crawled back under their rocks or started shouted BRINO from the sidelines

Until you can define it, you can't deliver it

[msi]

12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Actual brexit and actual democracy ?

Aka a revolution ?

Need to define it first

[pig]

7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

I thought that the reason the NHS was failing to deliver big time at present is because of the politicians overseeing and managing it - so we just need different politicians looking after it.  Not that the NHS itself is the problem.

But the issues with Brexit are entirely down to Brexit and nothing to do with the politicians overseeing and managing it.

Am ( missing something?!

Yes: Brexit isn’t a national health service.

Broadly speaking it is self imposed national sanctions and removal of citizen rights etc , which since the referendum has lacked a credible plan or vision to demonstrate some kind of future benefit we can aim for.

Welll OK allegedly the Truss premiership / budget was it.

[msi]

36 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

The EU will fail. It's a basket case.

 

Plenty of threads 'Predicting' this almost as long as the great HPC!

 

The UK has more chance of disintegrating with a United Ireland or Independent Scotland than the EU