Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[MancTom]

On 22/05/2022 at 22:11, Grayphil said:

I genuinely want to believe this.

Sadly that doesn't make it true.

If Hitler had been killed, the Nazis would have carried on. Plenty of other true believers. I'm not sure the Russian elite are much different now.

[rollover]

Kissinger tells Ukraine it should give Russia territory to try to find a peace deal

Henry Kissinger has said that the West should stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia and suggested that Ukraine should give up territory.

Former US secretary of state Mr Kissinger, 98, told the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine must begin negotiations 'before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome'.

Daily Mail

[satsuma]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

Kissinger tells Ukraine it should give Russia territory to try to find a peace deal

Henry Kissinger has said that the West should stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia and suggested that Ukraine should give up territory.

Former US secretary of state Mr Kissinger, 98, told the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine must begin negotiations 'before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome'.

Daily Mail

Tosh, he is senile and a PooTin apologist.  Russia will need to go ahead and pay war reparations rather than push its patsy puppets to float these crazy ideas.  

[yelims]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

Kissinger tells Ukraine it should give Russia territory to try to find a peace deal

Henry Kissinger has said that the West should stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russia and suggested that Ukraine should give up territory.

Former US secretary of state Mr Kissinger, 98, told the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland that Ukraine must begin negotiations 'before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome'.

Daily Mail

Don’t read his 4 points from 2014

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html
 

[FallingAwake]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

Don’t read his 4 points from 2014

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html
 

An interesting article, especially now with the benefit of hindsight.

The Ukraine issue (which seems to have been present in March 2014) seems to be a microcosm for Europe in general, which has been full of wars, conflicts and divisions for hundreds of years.

Anyway, fast forward to 2022.

Still nothing of any real substance justifies Putin's invasion of a sovereign country, which is the bottom line here. He has also singlehandedly brought Sweden and Finland into NATO, and moved Ukraine to a position of actually hating Russia.

Great job 👍 🤡

[rollover]

Japan scrambles fighter jets after Russian and Chinese warplanes near its airspace in first joint military exercise since Ukraine invasion - as President Biden visits Tokyo

Japan scrambled jets after two Chinese military aircrafts and four Russian warplanes entered its air defence identification zone on Tuesday on the same day President Joe Biden landed in Tokyo.

It was the first joint military exercise held between China and Russia since the war in Ukraine broke out on February 24.

Two Chinese warplanes flew over the Sea of Japan from the East China Sea and were then joined by two Russian warplanes for a flight together toward the East China Sea, Kishi said. Russian and Chinese jets had already entered South Korea's air defence identification zone earlier in the day. 

Daily Mail

[rollover]

Soros Warns ‘Civilization May Not Survive’ Putin’s War

Billionaire George Soros warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rattled Europe and could be the start of another world war.

"Other issues that concern all of humanity -- fighting pandemics and climate change, avoiding nuclear war, maintaining global institutions -- have had to take a back seat to that struggle,” Soros, 91, said Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “That’s why I say our civilization may not survive.”

Yahoo

[yelims]

Them Russian nazis running out of tanks now

 

 

[Staffsknot]

6 minutes ago, yelims said:

Them Russian nazis running out of tanks now

 

 

The T-62 was designated an infantry support tank. It was the counterpart to the T-64.

T-62s could be used as fire support to infantry units without need of tank on tank / anti-armour capabilities. Frees up true armour for its role against other tanks.

If you are just after something to provide fire support the T-62 does the job. Also the chassis can be retasked, which I believe was an option for some weapon platforms.

Probably not the story you wanted but the story that sits in reality.

[Fishfinger]

2 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

 

Still nothing of any real substance justifies Putin's invasion of a sovereign country, which is the bottom line here. He has also singlehandedly brought Sweden and Finland into NATO, and moved Ukraine to a position of actually hating Russia.

 

I think you find Mr Cardigan of Turkey will object to the them joining club NATO. Something to to with the Nordics harbouring Kurdish "terrorists"?

[Confusion of VIs]

43 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

I think you find Mr Cardigan of Turkey will object to the them joining club NATO. Something to to with the Nordics harbouring Kurdish "terrorists"?

He won't carry through the objection, he just wants paying off.

[Peter Hun]

9 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

The T-62 was designated an infantry support tank. It was the counterpart to the T-64.

T-62s could be used as fire support to infantry units without need of tank on tank / anti-armour capabilities. Frees up true armour for its role against other tanks.

If you are just after something to provide fire support the T-62 does the job. Also the chassis can be retasked, which I believe was an option for some weapon platforms.

Probably not the story you wanted but the story that sits in reality.

There is very little tank on tank action so far, the issue is "true armour" is being run down, good for NATO, then.

But you are right, a t62 takes just about the same effort to destroy as any tank if using artillery or missiles.

The weakening of Russias supposed mass tank reserves is all well and good, but the Ukrainians are losing at this stage and not enough artillery is being sent. 

I hope more is happening on the quiet but not feeling confident that the Ukranians won't get encircled. 

[rollover]

7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

He won't carry through the objection, he just wants paying off.

I think you are mistaken ..., it's payback time.

In 2016 coup d'état attempt was attempted in Turkey against state institutions, including the government and President.

But the putsch failed because Putin saved Erdogan's ass.

[shlomo]

10 minutes ago, rollover said:

I think you are mistaken ..., it's payback time.

In 2016 coup d'état attempt was attempted in Turkey against state institutions, including the government and President.

But the putsch failed because Putin saved Erdogan's ass.

I have wondered about that, was the democratic West putting in a dictatorship in Turkey, all the plotters were from the West 

[slawek]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

But you are right, a t62 takes just about the same effort to destroy as any tank if using artillery or missiles.

T62 are easier to destroy (no ERA, ammunition/fuel more likely to explode) but I don't think that matters much at the moment. 

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

The weakening of Russias supposed mass tank reserves is all well and good, but the Ukrainians are losing at this stage and not enough artillery is being sent. 

I hope more is happening on the quiet but not feeling confident that the Ukranians won't get encircled. 

I share your concerns. It is a very brutal and bloody fight in Donbas right now.  Russians have scaled down their plans so the encirclement is much smaller than initially planned. It allows them to concentrate their military power and they are making steady small advances. I think this is the last major Russian offensive using the forces deployed to Ukraine initially (around 150k). They would need to call up reserves to continue but that is difficult politically.  

This is how hard it is out there 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220524-who-can-stop-this-war-fear-and-fury-in-ukrainian-trenches

Edited May 25, 2022 by slawek

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, shlomo said:

I have wondered about that, was the democratic West putting in a dictatorship in Turkey, all the plotters were from the West 

Turkey became a de facto dictatorship years before the coup. The stories about the West's involvement are the usual blame the foreigner line employed by dictators everywhere.

Many Turks accuse Erdogan of allowing to coup to happen so that he could destroy the opposition, tithe fact that Turkish intelligence had broken into the supposedly secure communication systems used by the Gulenists, supposedly behind the coup, months before the attempt but found no sign of a plot gives some credence to this theory.     

[slawek]

 

[Si1]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Turkey became a de facto dictatorship years before the coup. The stories about the West's involvement are the usual blame the foreigner line employed by dictators everywhere.

Many Turks accuse Erdogan of allowing to coup to happen so that he could destroy the opposition, tithe fact that Turkish intelligence had broken into the supposedly secure communication systems used by the Gulenists, supposedly behind the coup, months before the attempt but found no sign of a plot gives some credence to this theory.     

Rest of NATO seems to think Turkey will be a pushover wrt allowing Finland/Sweden to join. Diplomacy & bribes I guess.

[shlomo]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Rest of NATO seems to think Turkey will be a pushover wrt allowing Finland/Sweden to join. Diplomacy & bribes I guess.

The Turks understand bribes let’s be honest the ME is no longer on the radar,  Ukraine has pushed every other subject off

[Flat Bear]

13 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

There is very little tank on tank action so far, the issue is "true armour" is being run down, good for NATO, then.

But you are right, a t62 takes just about the same effort to destroy as any tank if using artillery or missiles.

The weakening of Russias supposed mass tank reserves is all well and good, but the Ukrainians are losing at this stage and not enough artillery is being sent. 

I hope more is happening on the quiet but not feeling confident that the Ukranians won't get encircled. 

Yes, it is concerning. But it looks as if the Russians are putting everything they have into these surges into the Dombas. These gains must be costing the Russians very dearly in both weaponry and personnel.

12 hours ago, slawek said:

T62 are easier to destroy (no ERA, ammunition/fuel more likely to explode) but I don't think that matters much at the moment. 

I share your concerns. It is a very brutal and bloody fight in Donbas right now.  Russians have scaled down their plans so the encirclement is much smaller than initially planned. It allows them to concentrate their military power and they are making steady small advances. I think this is the last major Russian offensive using the forces deployed to Ukraine initially (around 150k). They would need to call up reserves to continue but that is difficult politically.  

This is how hard it is out there 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220524-who-can-stop-this-war-fear-and-fury-in-ukrainian-trenches

Is this offensive sucking the life out of the Russian military capability? How much is it costing the Russians for relatively small gains? How long can they keep this level up?

7 hours ago, slawek said:

 

Are the Ukrainians orchestrating this defence? Are they looking to counter attack at advantagous points at the right time?

So far the Russians have shown their very poor military tactical ability and the Ukrainians (NATO) have shown their prowess. Is it possible it has suddenly gone into reverse and the Russians have found a tatical genius? No I think this is highly unlikely and would suggest the Ukrainians are letting the Russians "burn themselves out"

There are more targets in a relatively smaller area for the Ukrainians to counter attack. They know where the Russians are.

[slawek]

2 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Yes, it is concerning. But it looks as if the Russians are putting everything they have into these surges into the Dombas. These gains must be costing the Russians very dearly in both weaponry and personnel.

Is this offensive sucking the life out of the Russian military capability? How much is it costing the Russians for relatively small gains? How long can they keep this level up?

Are the Ukrainians orchestrating this defence? Are they looking to counter attack at advantagous points at the right time?

So far the Russians have shown their very poor military tactical ability and the Ukrainians (NATO) have shown their prowess. Is it possible it has suddenly gone into reverse and the Russians have found a tatical genius? No I think this is highly unlikely and would suggest the Ukrainians are letting the Russians "burn themselves out"

There are more targets in a relatively smaller area for the Ukrainians to counter attack. They know where the Russians are.

I think Ukrainians are in no position to counterattack in this area. Russians simply have a huge advantage in artillery/aircraft power. Ukrainians are no match in artillery barrage exchanges. If they try to respond they expose their positions and get hit heavily. They can't reach Russian artillery positions as they are behind the frontlines.  Russians strategy atm seems to be

a) level Ukrainian positions with massive artillery fire

b) move in when Ukrainians withdraw or significantly weakened  

This way they move slowly but steadily forward. 

[satsuma]

49 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Yes, it is concerning. But it looks as if the Russians are putting everything they have into these surges into the Dombas. These gains must be costing the Russians very dearly in both weaponry and personnel.

Is this offensive sucking the life out of the Russian military capability? How much is it costing the Russians for relatively small gains? How long can they keep this level up?

Are the Ukrainians orchestrating this defence? Are they looking to counter attack at advantagous points at the right time?

So far the Russians have shown their very poor military tactical ability and the Ukrainians (NATO) have shown their prowess. Is it possible it has suddenly gone into reverse and the Russians have found a tatical genius? No I think this is highly unlikely and would suggest the Ukrainians are letting the Russians "burn themselves out"

There are more targets in a relatively smaller area for the Ukrainians to counter attack. They know where the Russians are.

More than likely the Russians are all drunk or drugged up or both.  But we should not be complacent and make sure the Ukrainians get more help.  

[Si1]

Another Russian general killed - an airforce one this time I understand.

[rollover]

Battle for Donbas shows Russia has finally got its act together

That Russia looks poised to close the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in the battle for the northern half of the Donbas should not come as a surprise. Focussed on a smaller gain in the east, they are coming together in far greater numbers than Ukraine.

The current level of coordination has allowed Russia to carry out effective small “bite and hold” actions of taking ground after pounding the area with artillery, then hanging on against stiff Ukrainian resistance.

After a chaotic start, Russia's tanks, infantry, jets, artillery and other equipment are all finally working together. Now though, the conductor has got a grip and the instruments are working together at least.

Yahoo

 

[pig]

11 minutes ago, rollover said:

Battle for Donbas shows Russia has finally got its act together

That Russia looks poised to close the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in the battle for the northern half of the Donbas should not come as a surprise. Focussed on a smaller gain in the east, they are coming together in far greater numbers than Ukraine.

The current level of coordination has allowed Russia to carry out effective small “bite and hold” actions of taking ground after pounding the area with artillery, then hanging on against stiff Ukrainian resistance.

After a chaotic start, Russia's tanks, infantry, jets, artillery and other equipment are all finally working together. Now though, the conductor has got a grip and the instruments are working together at least.

Yahoo

 

Well then, at least you must be pleased ?