henry the king Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Huge moment and clearest sign yet. The BOE has gone hawkish and is worried. Rates going up fast. Housing costs about to rise considerably too I suspect. We have the perfect storm. Rising rates AND inflation hurting real incomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 By housing costs you mean heating the thing and feeding yourself I assume? Is there a link somewhere to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, henry the king said: Huge moment and clearest sign yet. The BOE has gone hawkish and is worried. Rates going up fast. Housing costs about to rise considerably too I suspect. We have the perfect storm. Rising rates AND inflation hurting real incomes. Mortgage costs will rise. Housing costs will fall. 2 months ago people were doubting thats raise in 2022. The biggy isnt rate rises, its removal of term funding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 hour ago, henry the king said: Huge moment and clearest sign yet. The BOE has gone hawkish and is worried. Rates going up fast. Housing costs about to rise considerably too I suspect. We have the perfect storm. Rising rates AND inflation hurting real incomes. Assume you mean this? https://www.ft.com/content/160e6e1a-2584-4013-8102-3ae5cfadb1d8 More empty jawboning from the BOE. Sticking by my prediction of at best a token rise in the next 18 months. Anything further and the markets will crater, BOE will panic and they'll reverse it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Last week the markets were unfazed to say the least. I'll wait tomorrow to see how they interpret all that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Bluffing and bluster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: Assume you mean this? https://www.ft.com/content/160e6e1a-2584-4013-8102-3ae5cfadb1d8 More empty jawboning from the BOE. Sticking by my prediction of at best a token rise in the next 18 months. Anything further and the markets will crater, BOE will panic and they'll reverse it all. Absolutely wrong - my financial "organisation" has already priced in 3 rises in the next 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, Warlord said: Bluffing and bluster No it isn't. They're behind the curve and the rises will be faster than most seem to imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, gruffydd said: Absolutely wrong - my financial "organisation" has already priced in 3 rises in the next 6. And am I right in thinking that you all are expecting a rise of 0.15% in December? So if they want to get ahead of the curve (do they?) they need a (smaller) hike on 04.11. TBH, I think 0.05% would do it. Happy to discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Timm said: And am I right in thinking that you all are expecting a rise of 0.15% in December? So if they want to get ahead of the curve (do they?) they need a (smaller) hike on 04.11. TBH, I think 0.05% would do it. Happy to discuss. Lets put things in perspective. We're in worse shape economically than 07/08 when rates were 5%. They have not even started to raise them yet and the FED claim they wont until QE has finished "tapering" which they haven't even started to do yet. All the talk is bluffing imo. When they stop QE and raise rates to 5% then you'll know they're doing something. How likely is this ? Edited October 17, 2021 by Warlord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) Perhaps DPG is right there will be a token 0.1% rise but it's still effectively ZIRP and behind the curve. My forecast is they will do bugger all. .Happy to be proved wrong though. @spyguy I have said since May on this site (you can look it up) they need to make a choice: Curb inflation and raise rates or let it rip and do nothing because to raise rates crashes not only the property market but also the ENTIRE NATION through thuge interest payments on the debt. I believe the banksters will let inflation rip rather than risk crashing everything. THe problem is even bigger in the US where their debt is 30 trillion !! Edited October 17, 2021 by Warlord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Timm said: And am I right in thinking that you all are expecting a rise of 0.15% in December? So if they want to get ahead of the curve (do they?) they need a (smaller) hike on 04.11. TBH, I think 0.05% would do it. Happy to discuss. They won't get ahead of the curve - they're old school laggards who don't even seem to be on top of the basic dataflows. So it's 0.15% in December. Then a bigger rise in February when they eventually realise they're behind the curve. 0.25%. Nothing will happen in November... some bolloxology about Furlough (we already know there's been little impact re: the ending of furlough, but apparently these Bank of England twits need anther month lol). Edited October 17, 2021 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) 48 minutes ago, gruffydd said: They won't get ahead of the curve - they're old school laggards who don't even seem to be on top of the basic dataflows. So it's 0.15% in December. Then a bigger rise in February when they eventually realise they're behind the curve. 0.25%. Nothing will happen in November... some bolloxology about Furlough (we already know there's been little impact re: the ending of furlough, but apparently these Bank of England twits need anther month lol). TBH, I think you are probably right. I made a small profit in 2007 by betting on a BOE rate rise (can't remember the month, and I closed out at a very small profit), because the market seemed to me to utterly discount what was (to me) obviously a real but very small chance of a rise, and when the market changed their mind and went into panic mode, I was able to close out. The point I'm trying to make is not that the BOE will hike in Nov, but that wholly discounting that possibility, might be somewhat unwise. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not a trader and the the very, very small sum I made was on Betfair. Edited October 17, 2021 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 10 hours ago, gruffydd said: Absolutely wrong - my financial "organisation" has already priced in 3 rises in the next 6. Let's see then. I seriously doubt 3 * 0.25% in the next 6 months (or even 0.15 and 2 * 0.25) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 By "act", do they mean more money printing and negative rates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeAlone2 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Talking about doing something is the act itself these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, HomeAlone2 said: Talking about doing something is the act itself these days. Said it......consider it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 They will shyte themselves when the latest numbers come out, and implement a rise to show/pretend they are no puppets/paper tiger, and they remain both vigilant and independent. And creditable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 I was convinced we’d see a rise last month but Boris has the BoE in his pocket. I now think a 0.15 rise this year is unlikely, in fact I think a base rate of 0.5% by summer 2022 is also highly unlikely. There’s an agenda for high inflation. Let the masses think they are rolling in it while the boomers check out before the big economic crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 13 hours ago, gruffydd said: They won't get ahead of the curve - they're old school laggards who don't even seem to be on top of the basic dataflows. So it's 0.15% in December. Then a bigger rise in February when they eventually realise they're behind the curve. 0.25%. Nothing will happen in November... some bolloxology about Furlough (we already know there's been little impact re: the ending of furlough, but apparently these Bank of England twits need anther month lol). November is removal of banks covid term funding so youll see a leap in banks funding costs. And a notable change too. Assuming this bout of inflation is not 'temporary' - and I reckon its a full on, sh1t, out of control thing - then you ought to see 0.25% rise in Dec. And the BoE will still be behind, so youll see a series of rises during 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 47 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said: I was convinced we’d see a rise last month but Boris has the BoE in his pocket. I now think a 0.15 rise this year is unlikely, in fact I think a base rate of 0.5% by summer 2022 is also highly unlikely. There’s an agenda for high inflation. Let the masses think they are rolling in it while the boomers check out before the big economic crash. No he doesnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 They've seen Wednesday's data and are (finally) worried... The next rate rise is far less important than the one after - ie, can a second increase be sustained or will it to have to be cut again An upward trend in interest rates requires two rises in a row. That's what I'm waiting to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said: They will shyte themselves when the latest numbers come out, and implement a rise to show/pretend they are no puppets/paper tiger, and they remain both vigilant and independent. And creditable. They - CB, macro economists - always sh1t themselves as real life fails to follow their model. You have thought theyd have learned their lessons. Youd be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Here is the 2Y Guilt And when it comes to sterling contracts: Meanwhile, the FTSE100 did not get the full memo yet it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 minute ago, rantnrave said: They've seen Wednesday's data and are (finally) worried... The next rate rise is far less important than the ones after - ie, can a second increase be sustained or will it to have to be cut again An upward trend in interest rates requires two rises in a row. That's what I'm waiting to see. Missed the plural .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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