Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[zugzwang]

10 hours ago, Dr Doom said:

My understanding is that releasing a real virus bioweapon is very risky, as you might end up taking
out loads of people in the global hierarchy you actually need to run the operation. A made up virus is
a lot less risky. 

SARS-COV-2 is a real made-up virus?

[markyh]

2 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

Erm, the 7 day moving average is rising and is currently 92, with yesterday recording 170 deaths.......

The daily figures are noisy, but the average is rising.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Still well below a bad flu year, we can comfortably remove 300 people a day for circulation and still not lockdown, plenty of scope for freedom and letting Delta gain heard penitration and burn itself out. All be over by Xmas. 

[pig]

2 hours ago, markyh said:

Still well below a bad flu year, we can comfortably remove 300 people a day for circulation and still not lockdown, plenty of scope for freedom and letting Delta gain heard penitration and burn itself out. All be over by Xmas. 

Lazy, you copy pasted this post from last year.

[Ah-so]

16 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

I was saying all kinds of crazy stuff 17 months ago, like they would bring out vaccine passports and recurring lockdowns would go on for much longer.

 

~8000 per day at peak, projected from ~7 times more C19 deaths in the UK now than this time last year.

On top of / mixed with (depending on definitions) more non-C19 deaths, which are also presently at similar multiples.

 

Apologies for the exaggeration - I was working from my terrible memory. But we will see in due course whether daily COVID deaths reach 8000 in the UK or not. 

I am pretty sure they won't - the rationale does not hold water - there is no specific reason why one date in the calendar should map to a point 365 days later with COVID. 

Edited August 18, 2021 by Ah-so

[Ah-so]

6 hours ago, Glenn said:

There is quite a correlation there Arpeggio between number of deaths and number of vaccines given. The UK graph looks similar. But are you implying the vaccines are directly giving people covid? I don't think that's the case because the majority of people in hospital with covid haven't been vaccinated. Looking only at deaths, its true more vaccinated are dying than non vaccinated but if you look at their ages the deaths are still mostly in the 80+ group. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from this yet.

Did you notice that the correlation is even more pronounced when you start the graphs at different dates, so that the correlation visually looks aligned, even if the actual data isn't?

[anonguest]

86% effective.  For now......

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/third-pfizer-dose-86-effective-over-60s-israeli-hmo-says-2021-08-18/?taid=611d1267eb3353000173833f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

[zugzwang]

53 minutes ago, anonguest said:

86% effective.  For now......

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/third-pfizer-dose-86-effective-over-60s-israeli-hmo-says-2021-08-18/?taid=611d1267eb3353000173833f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Remarkable efficacy.

Especially as researchers failed to isolate the so-called 'virus' from all the genetic, cellular and acidic waste material that it is (not) swimming.

https://www.drrobertyoung.com/post/missing-in-action-truth-about-viruses

Quite the guess. 🤣

[zugzwang]

2 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Apologies for the exaggeration - I was working from my terrible memory. But we will see in die course whether daily COVID deaths reach 8000 in the UK or not. 

I am pretty sure they won't - the rationale does not hold water - there is no specific reason why one date in the calendar should map to a point 365 days later with COVID. 

Sounds like astrology!

[coypondboy]

Still No 1 in the european charts although france giving us a run for our money.  Just imagine if we adpoted New Zealands/Austrailia's tactics what the numbers would have been , but would have destroyed our economy.  Just hope we do not get a variant that the vaccines don't work on fingers crossed for the winter months.

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

I think that we can all agree now that there is a very clear and definite uptick across all the charts. And the schools and universities are not even back yet. It's time to get tougher on masks and those dissenters who refuse to wear them.

[zugzwang]

11 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Still No 1 in the european charts although france giving us a run for our money.  Just imagine if we adpoted New Zealands/Austrailia's tactics what the numbers would have been , but would have destroyed our economy.  Just hope we do not get a variant that the vaccines don't work on fingers crossed for the winter months.

 

 

The UK economy is already a basket-case, and we're the worst in Europe for Covid.

Anybody surprised?

 

[anonguest]

37 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

I think that we can all agree now that there is a very clear and definite uptick across all the charts. And the schools and universities are not even back yet. It's time to get tougher on masks and those dissenters who refuse to wear them.

33,900 people infected per day (at current rate)?  So.....equivalent to just one infected person for roughly every 1900 people in the country.  And for that EVERYONE must wear a mask?! I dread to think what people like you will be demanding IF we ever get an even halfway genuinely dangerous virus.  Shoot curfew breakers on sight perhaps?

Edited August 18, 2021 by anonguest

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

8 hours ago, Drat said:

Except the Delta variant first emerged in India, a country where vaccine rates were very low at the time, and also they don't use the Pfizer vaccine there. 

That is a bigger assumption than I made.

No one knows India is where it originated, you are just stating where it got named due to spread. Besides it isn't just one variant it is billions and some work some don't even if they are minor variations on a theme. It is much more a Monte Carlo simulation.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

40 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

I think that we can all agree now that there is a very clear and definite uptick across all the charts. And the schools and universities are not even back yet. It's time to get tougher on masks and those dissenters who refuse to wear them.

 

There are no dissenters except on trains. Hate to point it out, but mask are no longer compulsory except in a few settings.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

There are no dissenters except on trains. Hate to point it out, but mask are no longer compulsory except in a few settings.

Which is my point. Masks need to return before the fourth wave takes hold. Of course the Tory populist party will U-turn over this at the very last moment when it's already too late.

[anonguest]

6 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

There are no dissenters except on trains. Hate to point it out, but mask are no longer compulsory except in a few settings.

I haven't worn a mask on any public transport since February. 

Seems very relaxed on the intercity trains I've taken. Weird situation at moment on London Transport - with less and less by the day wearing, day or night.  I reckon the psychological 'damage' to some will be long term.  With some still wearing masks all year round for years to come.

Edited August 18, 2021 by anonguest

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

On 7/26/2021 at 8:55 PM, nightowl said:

Or the chance to something less deadly?   Why does everyone assume it will be more deadly?

Because rationally you hope for the best but plan for the worst. 

[MARTINX9]

21 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

There are no dissenters except on trains. Hate to point it out, but mask are no longer compulsory except in a few settings.

It’s actually a real mess as different train operators have different rules.

You must wear masks on TfL services of course but is anyone clear what the rules are for each train operator?

I use the tube almost every day - only once have I ever seen police officers or anyone else enforcing mask wearing and that was nearly a year ago. That was one rush hour at the Westfield  entrance to Stratford station at the ticket barriers - two young men put them on for the check and once down the escalators on the way to platforms took them off again!

A bit like the alcohol ban on the tube - the usual suspects (almost always young people under 30) don’t bother following the rules as no one enforces them. And those that don’t generally aren’t the sort of people you would want to risk challenging anyway! 

Edited August 18, 2021 by MARTINX9

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said:

A bit like the alcohol ban on the tube - the usual suspects don’t bother following the rules as no one enforces them. And those that don’t generally aren’t the sort of people you would want to risk challenging anyway! 

Are you insinuating that anti-maskers are violent and not worthy of reproach?

[Will!]

8 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

Again, my point is... we're still in the infancy stage of understanding our own genome.

Yet the vast majority of the world's population are now trusting drug manufacturers to inject them with a brand new mRNA technology which has never been used before in a product.

 

It’s lucky mRNA vaccines don’t go near the genome then.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

We need @Grayphilback.

But I still maintain C19 won't generally

get any better or worse, so in effect it is over. Needs to be lived with.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[anonguest]

9 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

It’s actually a real mess as different train operators have different rules.

So I make my life easy - and ignore all of them!

 

9 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

You must wear masks on TfL services of course but is anyone clear what the rules are for each train operator?

Haven't been told off yet or not allowed to board a bus - and nor, I suspect, have any of the THOUSANDS of others I observe doing the same.

9 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

I use the tube almost every day - only once have I ever seen police officers or anyone else enforcing mask wearing and that was nearly a year ago.

Likewise.  Walked past a pair of plod just last week. Not so much as looked at me.

9 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

 

 

Edited August 18, 2021 by anonguest

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 hours ago, anonguest said:

I dread to think what people like you will be demanding IF we ever get an even halfway genuinely dangerous virus.  

Perhaps this?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9905651/Flight-attendant-suggested-mom-GLUE-daughters-mask-face-refused-wear-it.html

[anonguest]

15 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Perhaps this?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9905651/Flight-attendant-suggested-mom-GLUE-daughters-mask-face-refused-wear-it.html

Years ago I knew someone who, largely through having to live and work with them, had come to the conclusion and often said, shaking his head and with despairing tone, that "Americans are morons. They really are." (referring to the average Joe rather than insinuate they are ALL genetically stupid).  Reading stuff like this reminds me of that turn of phrase he used to utter.

And this really speaks volumes to the sheer stupidity of government bureaucrats the world over:

"wearing a face covering while flying is a federal mandate for any passenger aged two and older"

Whoever dreamed that up clearly doesn't have children or ever had to look after an infant!

Edited August 18, 2021 by anonguest

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

43 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Years ago I knew someone who, largely through having to live and work with them, had come to the conclusion and often said, shaking his head and with despairing tone, that "Americans are morons. They really are." (referring to the average Joe rather than insinuate they are ALL genetically stupid).  Reading stuff like this reminds me of that turn of phrase he used to utter.

And this really speaks volumes to the sheer stupidity of government bureaucrats the world over:

"wearing a face covering while flying is a federal mandate for any passenger aged two and older"

Whoever dreamed that up clearly doesn't have children or ever had to look after an infant!

I agree. Two year old's should simply be barred from flying until the global health emergency is over. Absolutely zero need for such a child of age to be flying suring a worldwide pandemic.