Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[anonguest]

15 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Spare a thought for Boris Johnson who is celebrating Freedom Day by being legally confined to his home.

I try never to spare a thought for any of that bunch.

Reaping what they sow.....

Edited July 19, 2021 by anonguest

[Bob8]

On 17/07/2021 at 12:31, anonguest said:

(German) society, in the run up to WW2, also decided it was ok to discriminate against Jews.  Just because the masses ('society') decides something doesn't make it right.

We also decide you should wear seatbelts in the car and not drive drunk. That is because we have to consider the safety of others.

That is an incredibly stupid and crass comparison.

[anonguest]

11 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

We also decide you should wear seatbelts in the car and not drive drunk. That is because we have to consider the safety of others.

That is an incredibly stupid and crass comparison.

No.  The OP comment, about being blindly happy to accept what society decides, was stupid and crass. My comment was to illustrate that just because society 'decides' on something doesn't automatically and always make it right.

[nightowl]

25 minutes ago, anonguest said:

No.  The OP comment, about being blindly happy to accept what society decides, was stupid and crass. My comment was to illustrate that just because society 'decides' on something doesn't automatically and always make it right.

You only have to look at people behaviour during the witch hunts to see how FEAR of something drives people to be drowned or hung for the greater good.... The underlying thought processes are much the same.

[Ah-so]

40 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

We also decide you should wear seatbelts in the car and not drive drunk. That is because we have to consider the safety of others.

That is an incredibly stupid and crass comparison.

They can't help themselves making comparisons to 1930s Germany.

When the unvaccinated are placed in concentration camps and stripped of their property, give me a shout.

[anonguest]

4 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

They can't help themselves making comparisons to 1930s Germany.

When the unvaccinated are placed in concentration camps and stripped of their property, give me a shout.

Have patience Grasshopper.  😉

The continued and popular comparisons with the 30's are made because they are apt.

IIRC Jewish people were not stripped of property and sent straight away to camps. It first started with 'simple' discrimination - stopping them from working certain jobs, preventing them from using various services, etc.  By the time the unvaccinated are, proverbially if not literally, being placed in camps it will be too late!

Edited July 19, 2021 by anonguest

[captainb]

11 minutes ago, nightowl said:

You only have to look at people behaviour during the witch hunts to see how FEAR of something drives people to be drowned or hung for the greater good.... The underlying thought processes are much the same.

The latest stats for excess deaths show... Still negative, i.e less than expected over a 5 year average 

Whoops can't put this ongoing horror into context. Back to panic.

Where's my megaphone to shout that someone else ideally in a council block stays indoors? Need to get this done before I put the BBQ on.

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by captainb

[doomed]

18 minutes ago, captainb said:

The latest stats for excess deaths show... Still negative, i.e less than expected over a 5 year average 

Whoops can't put this ongoing horror into context. Back to panic.

Where's my megaphone to shout that someone else ideally in a council block stays indoors? Need to get this done before I put the BBQ on.

 

 

 

The deadly pandemic of 2021 where less people than usual die.

[pig]

16 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Have patience Grasshopper.  😉

The continued and popular comparisons with the 30's are made because they are apt.

IIRC Jewish people were not stripped of property and sent straight away to camps. It first started with 'simple' discrimination - stopping them from working certain jobs, preventing them from using various services, etc.  By the time the unvaccinated are, proverbially if not literally, being placed in camps it will be too late!

No it didn't. It started with false claims about Jewish people founded on pernicious corrosion of fact and reality.  

A bit like the George Soros obsession plaguing SM. Which then moves on to crazy conspiracy theories about the pandemic, anti-science, anti vaxxers and of course bogus attempts to smear public health measures - the most desperate of which has got to be fascism lol

[captainb]

6 minutes ago, doomed said:

The deadly pandemic of 2021 where less people than usual die.

More did die in January and February. Since then fairly consistently negative.

Amazing how that went from the gold standard metric for 18 months.. then when goes "wrong way*" is totally ignored.

*Wrong way if you have spent 18 months selling papers and clicks on fear.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, anonguest said:

Sure, a lot (absolutely all?) of anti-vaxx stuff is idiotic.  BUT....

What has motivation got to do with anything?  The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Even IF, and it is a naive assumption, absolutely 100% of the medical/scientific community are nothing but good of heart and noble intentions etc. you seem to be be conflating/equating having those attributes with an inability to make mistakes. 

IF, purely hypothetically, we all found ourselves in a scenario where after, say, 3 year a huge % of the population were suffering some sort of consequences from their vaccinations what sort of comfort would it be to just shrug shoulders and say "Oh well, the medical/scientific community had nothing but the best of intentions...."?  And why would such a scenario have arisen?  Because nobody, of consequence, would have dared to ask/probe sufficiently in the first place - for fear of being labelled as stupid or lacking self awareness by people such as yourself.

The public are, in good faith, de facto participating in a the largest phase 4 trial of a medication in history.  We all have every right and reason to question everything being told to us and have a right be told the truth on everything - and not have information selectively filtered and cherry picked by TPTB to suit whatever agenda they might have.

Anybody who just blindly 'goes with the flow' and assumes that others know better than them and adopt a 'who am I to question' etc attitude will only have themselves to blame IF things go bad.

What if Covid turns out to have as yet unknown long term effects. Given what we know about it today that seems much more likely.

Life is a risk, taking any medication carries a risk if it goes bad it goes bad. 

Listening to people with no knowledge of the field regurgitatingn misinformation is not likely to reduce those risks. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Confusion of VIs

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

We also decide you should wear seatbelts in the car and not drive drunk. That is because we have to consider the safety of others.

That is an incredibly stupid and crass comparison.

Wearing seatbelts is about yourself, not others. Oh, sometimes the risk of people flying through the windscreen and hitting someone is brought up but that AFAICT was never a significant factor in serious accident outcomes.

When it comes to considering the safety of others the question really is "where do you draw the line?" though. Too many people say "safety of others" and use that to justify anything - no limit in their minds. But it only takes a moment's thought to come up with some absurdly far-fetched examples and realise that an essentially arbitrary boundary has to be set somewhere. What's less mentioned sadly is that we're all "others" to everyone else, and some of us would prefer to live with some of the risks rather than the self-responsibility denying treating everyone like children that we sometimes get. Again, it's not black and white, no rules vs every rule, and doesn't mean I want to (for example) drive around like a maniac p1ssed out of my skull.

[Bruce Banner]

1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

We also decide you should wear seatbelts in the car and not drive drunk. That is because we have to consider the safety of others.

That is an incredibly stupid and crass comparison.

Talk about stupid and crass! 

What do seatbelts have to do with the safety of others?

[pig]

2 minutes ago, captainb said:

More did die in January and February. Since then fairly consistently negative.

Amazing how that went from the gold standard metric for 18 months.. then when goes "wrong way*" is totally ignored.

*Wrong way if you have spent 18 months selling papers and clicks on fear.

Same thing happened in WW2 except much worse - only 40K died in the blitz, no worse than a winter flu. That whole anti-german thing was clearly wildly overblown. Its probably cyclical, every half century or so everybody loses their sh1t and we were well overdue

[captainb]

1 minute ago, pig said:

Same thing happened in WW2 except much worse - only 40K died in the blitz, no worse than a winter flu. That whole anti-german thing was clearly wildly overblown. Its probably cyclical, every half century or so everybody loses their sh1t and we were well overdue

If you are resorting to claiming ww2 was merely the blitz and nothing more just give up. Totally lost reality. 

 

[Ah-so]

39 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Have patience Grasshopper.  😉

The continued and popular comparisons with the 30's are made because they are apt.

IIRC Jewish people were not stripped of property and sent straight away to camps. It first started with 'simple' discrimination - stopping them from working certain jobs, preventing them from using various services, etc.  By the time the unvaccinated are, proverbially if not literally, being placed in camps it will be too late!

Superficial similarities to some elements of early Jewish discrimination still try to allude to a suggestion that te unvaccinated will entually be rounded up, imprisoned and sent to death camps.

Guess what, during WW2 all British citizens had to carry identification cards, just like the Jews in Nazi Germany!!!

If you are going to choose analogies, choose appropriate ones, not crassly insensitive ones.

[anonguest]

6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What if Covid turns out to have as yet unknown long term effects. Given what we know about it today that seems much more likely.

Ah... the old 'What IF' answer - rather than acknowledge the substance of my reply.

But OK, I'll bite.....

What is it about Covid that makes it seem to you that it WILL turn out to have as yet unknown long term effects.  Just because you 'feel' something is not exactly a scientific rationale.

Will some people have long term effects?  I'd be surprised if not.

Will EVERYONE have long term effects? I'd be surprised If they do. 

[anonguest]

8 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Talk about stupid and crass! 

What do seatbelts have to do with the safety of others?

Well, to be fair to the OP, in the case of rear seat passengers.... a lot for the those in the front seats.

Edited July 19, 2021 by anonguest

[anonguest]

21 minutes ago, pig said:

No it didn't. It started with false claims about Jewish people founded on pernicious corrosion of fact and reality.  

A bit like the George Soros obsession plaguing SM. Which then moves on to crazy conspiracy theories about the pandemic, anti-science, anti vaxxers and of course bogus attempts to smear public health measures - the most desperate of which has got to be fascism lol

All irrelevent points to my reply.

The OP dismissively stated that he didn't care about impositions on the unvaxxed until they get their property confiscated/get sent to camps. My point was that once things get to that stage it's usually too late to do anything to help - so ideally best to not let things get that far in the first place.

[pig]

9 minutes ago, captainb said:

If you are resorting to claiming ww2 was merely the blitz and nothing more just give up. Totally lost reality. 

 

[Bruce Banner]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Well, to be fair to the OP, in the case of rear seat passengers.... a lot for the those in the front seats.

Yet when the law first came out it only applied to front seat occupants.

[hurlerontheditch]

24 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Wearing seatbelts is about yourself, not others. Oh, sometimes the risk of people flying through the windscreen and hitting someone is brought up but that AFAICT was never a significant factor in serious accident outcomes.

When it comes to considering the safety of others the question really is "where do you draw the line?" though. Too many people say "safety of others" and use that to justify anything - no limit in their minds. But it only takes a moment's thought to come up with some absurdly far-fetched examples and realise that an essentially arbitrary boundary has to be set somewhere. What's less mentioned sadly is that we're all "others" to everyone else, and some of us would prefer to live with some of the risks rather than the self-responsibility denying treating everyone like children that we sometimes get. Again, it's not black and white, no rules vs every rule, and doesn't mean I want to (for example) drive around like a maniac p1ssed out of my skull.

if we apply the ALARP process, wearing a mask is still required

[anonguest]

8 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Yet when the law first came out it only applied to front seat occupants.

True. I remember the debates well a the time. It was legislation not without controversy at the time.

[pig]

1 minute ago, anonguest said:

All irrelevent points to my reply.

The OP dismissively stated that he didn't care about impositions on the unvaxxed until they get their property confiscated/get sent to camps. My point was that once things get to that stage it's usually too late to do anything to help - so ideally best to not let things get that far in the first place.

All relevant. There is imposition either way so what you are arguing is pointless - we are now 'imposing' disease on our children for example, how far do you want that to go ? A stronger argument is that you start with bullsh1t and end up with fascism, so its all about cutting out the bullsh1t in the first place   

I think it was @dugsbody who originally posted this ? Anyway if you're genuinely interested in how our democracy is being eroded this is a really good start:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2021/07/politics-lies-boris-johnson-and-erosion-rule-law

 

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, anonguest said:

True. I remember the debates well a the time. It was legislation not without controversy at the time.

And not without controversy now. Little gets my goat more than nanny stateism and you can't get more nanny statist than laws that exist to protect us from our own actions.