Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[The Preacherman]

 

Definitely. But in casting their net too wide by generalising too much people stop taking any part of the message seriously.

It's the equivalent of the teacher loosing the class or the football manger loosing the dressing room. When respect is lost the only resort is too punish hence the increasing amount of random and arbitrary offences that have been created.

The big concern now is that this undermines the sensible such as good hygiene and vaccination programmes as the government now has no respect and is perceived to be always lying.

[The Preacherman]

 

The UK gets another credit downgrade. 👎

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/16/uk-credit-rating-downgraded-by-moodys-amid-growth-concerns

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded Britain’s credit status, citing a decline in economic strength in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and continued Brexit uncertainty.

With the government struggling to contain a second wave and ministers under pressure to sanction extra spending to protect businesses and jobs, Moody’s lowered the UK’s sovereign debt rating by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2.

The ratings agency said it expected that the public finances would worsen as a result of the pandemic, though it expected the overall debt burden to stabilise next year, leading it to drop the “negative outlook” attached to the rating to one of “stable”.

The ability of UK government to continue to raise funds is the big elephant in the room. Another downgrade is likely to force interest rates up as they'll have to pay more for borrowing.

[Arpeggio]

What an astounding co incidence!

Feasibility study for the development of a common EU vaccination card 2019 - 2022

Travel latest news: 'Health passport' to be tested on flights out of UK next week

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

Has it got anything to do with the mayors actively asking for it? I notice the Liverpool mayor is a disgusting example of human health, trying to save his own bacon maybe?

What a vile character you are. 

 

Liverpool's mayor Joe Anderson reveals his brother has died a day after going into intensive care while suffering from coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850251/Liverpools-mayor-Joe-Anderson-reveals-brother-died-coronavirus.html

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

I see what you mean, jeez. I notice he doesn't look very happy.

So I used his under-chin fat fold as a mouth...

 

Seems so.

 

What vile drivel to post about someone whose brother was in ICU. You will be happy to hear that on Friday his brother died of Covid. His SECOND brother to die in 5 weeks!!! You really are an utterly repulsive character.

Liverpool's mayor Joe Anderson reveals his brother has died a day after going into intensive care while suffering from coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850251/Liverpools-mayor-Joe-Anderson-reveals-brother-died-coronavirus.html

Politicians, celebrities and members of the public rallied round the 62-year-old mayor, who only five weeks ago lost another brother Henry to cancer. 

Edited October 17, 2020 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[Arpeggio]

 

The big concern now is that this undermines the sensible such as good hygiene and vaccination programmes as the government now has no respect and is perceived to be always lying.

We aren't even on pandemic 2 yet. The people who predict that are the same ones that predicted this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0EXIjxBfOY&feature=emb_title

Sorry about the cheesy editing.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

 

The big concern now is that this undermines the sensible such as good hygiene and vaccination programmes as the government now has no respect and is perceived to be always lying.

If lockdowns don't work, if most cases are at home and if vaccines make no difference then this would correlate with Terrain theory.

https://www.inverse.com/article/49747-what-is-the-human-virome

https://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/notes-from-yesteryear/germ-theory-versus-terrain-the-wrong-side-won-the-day/

Of course one can only go by the flu jab having made no difference an example of vaccinations, knowing that the shiny new COVID19 jab is not hot off the line yet.

Knowing that most cases are in the home, this might eventually be used to force people out of their homes and put into facilities, but by then I suppose if you mention Terrain theory they might force you out of your home, or prosecute you, for being a germ theory denialist. At best censor you as has been so evident already.

[The Spaniard]

 

We aren't even on pandemic 2 yet. The people who predict that are the same ones that predicted this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0EXIjxBfOY&feature=emb_title

Sorry about the cheesy editing.

I wonder if B&M Gates practice those impressively creepy expressions in front of a mirror. 🤣

Here's James Corbett's disturbing Your Guide to The Great Reset:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeMsaN6xjAQ

[Arpeggio]

 

I wonder if B&M Gates practice those impressively creepy expressions in front of a mirror. 🤣

Here's James Corbett's disturbing Your Guide to The Great Reset:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeMsaN6xjAQ

Thanks. Long vid but I know most of this stuff. Bill has some weird hand / finger movements

What do you think of this?

Rocker feller admits its "Lockstep" would involve limited innovation. The Chinese revolution decimated its officer class (and today their soldiers cry on their way to the Indian border). The USSR army that unsuccessfully invaded Finland with huge losses had replaced its best commanders with communist party members. When I worked as a temp in the public sector, people that had worked there for years asked me how to save a file. In USSR nobody worked too hard.

If you do work hard you get things done, you make the system look good, you get promoted, Stalin commends you and shows you as an example of how it's all a success.

Things is, you're not politically aligned with the system though, and you wont get to the top, you'll be just below it at best. I know such a person exists within crony capitalism and certainly better systems, maybe they don't exist at all in communism.

The USSR (originally intended to be global) lasted 69 years, China CCP is 70 years. If this "Great Reset" way of life goes into full swing, what will make it last this time? I guess technology but I'm not sure.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Arpeggio

[MARTINX9]

 

Question?.......is Europe quarantining UK nationals travelling to their countries for two weeks?

What is stopping anyone flying to a very low risk place overseas and then flying back again, visit certain places a need to quarantine for two weeks on return, forwarded planning required.....not feasible for everyone but if working from home or do not have to do a job outside the home it is doable......can fly to Europe but can't drive to Wales!

Rules are here - just to say there almost are as many different types of rules as there are countries.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/15/which-european-countries-have-opened-their-borders-ahead-of-the-summer-holiday-season

 

Don't understand your question though - if you go to a green list country there is no need to self isolate on return. But the list of places which don't require proof of COVID PCR negative tests within 48/72 hours before arrival, don't require you to self isolate and are on the UK green list is getting shorter!

[pig]

 

You have made my firday night in! We agree! 

Lol

[Arpeggio]

 

Saint Jacinda!!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/new-zealand-election-result-jacinda-ardern-win-pm-coronavirus-2020-latest-b1098519.html

I did a product review marketing campaign once. New Zealanders were extremely nice, they would not say anything bad at all.

Australians were horrible lol. US, South Africa and everywhere else offered some criticism with the positives.

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Megadebt]

 

Covid is much more contagious than flu (R0 3 v R0 1.3) plus the anti covid measures we use are based on what we know about influenza spread as it's better studied than coronaviruses. It just before up what a lot of us have been saying all along - if this was the flu we'd be in a much better position.

 This drop in Flu is a strong indicator that containment measures were effective, I mentioned this a couple of months ago with some graphs -a good example of emerging evidence that neccessarily takes time to accumulate. 

  I suspect the current R(o) for flu now, like cv19 has dropped maybe by half. If this marked reduction in Flu trend continues this winter in Northern Hemiphere contries, (which would normally see much more severe flu than other countries which have already had a mild winter this year) this would be pretty strong evidence for covid restrictions.   Data on coughs, colds, STI's etc would be interesting too.   

 

 

The elephant in the room is aerosol transmission. We've been focusing too much on droplet and surface transmission when aerosol transmission seems to be the main vector.

 

 Wakey, wakey.  The Elephant has been in the room nearly a year,  two metres away with a mask around it's big floppy ears and trunk. 

 Hundreds of posts on this thread debating transmission and containment, a disproportionate amount by yourself,  mainly unanswered to the extent that it might appear to some that it reflects the general forum consensus here -rather than the reality that most of the smarter posters here just can't be arsed with the same old circular arguments about masks and 'heard immunity' sic ..belt feed, full auto. 

 Finally the penny drops and the sermon gets revised with this clever new idea...doh!     

 

 

A 2 minute Google on companies House and thats super dodgy. 

Tiny company with full exemption accounts gets awarded huge goverment contracts. 

Within a month all previous directors resigned, new ones appointed, shares issued to new owners. 

Almost as if the "pest control" company was used by the new owners as a shell to get awarded the huge contracts. 

Really is banana Republic stuff. (sadly) 

 This incoming BrexVid19 double-banger is a great smokscreen for some really dodgy business, rushed through and overshadowed by much bigger events.  

 I wonder if this LA/Government lockdown measures 'standoff'  is maybe just a side show allowed to run as a distraction as Boris announces our ready cooked 'Australia' style euro trade policy. 

[MARTINX9]

 

I did a product review marketing campaign once. New Zealanders were extremely nice, they would not say anything bad at all.

Australians were horrible lol. US, South Africa and everywhere else offered some criticism with the positives.

 

Who knew that shutting down your country to all immigration for six months would be so electorally popular. She managed to out WInston Peters Winston Peters - and seen him off so she can now govern alone - but seems she may still want a coalition with the greens so she can't be outflanked from the left for the next 3 years.

And even better Jacinda is finally allowing people to leave for Australia with one way tickets - but they cannot come back!

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by MARTINX9

[pig]

 

There's a thread where you take me on with your sh*te here:

Thanks

Here will do thanks (but by all means take that kind of sh*te elsewhere  )

Prior to the Covid mess, Trump was perpetually slagging off Sweden - I can't even remember why.

Sweden is a small socialist welfare state. Their Covid strategy, basically asking their population - pragmatic and respectful of scientific advice - to heed scientific advice on social distancing etc doesn't really surprise me (should point out I've never lived in Sweden and all I know is from friends/media etc). 

Hilariously its become the poster boy of the (often Trump supporting) china-sniffle brigade, libertarians, anti-vaxxers and so on and its example has been misused to support all sorts of myths and to justify a laissez faire approach to dealing with Covid

In a similarly paradoxical vein Andy Burnham is a labour mp apparently supported by plenty of Rwingers in his current anti-lockdown stance. I suspect what he doesn't want is Manchester in a pointless month long lockdown followed by an exacerbated, even longer national lockdown.

Anyway the point is you cannot make head nor tail of either of those situations - and you simply get yourself into a mess -  by simply clinging onto political allegiance at all costs.

[Pebbles]

 

Who knew that shutting down your country to all immigration for six months would be so electorally popular. She managed to out WInston Peters Winston Peters - and seen him off so she can now govern alone - but seems she may still want a coalition with the greens so she can't be outflanked from the left for the next 3 years.

And even better Jacinda is finally allowing people to leave for Australia with one way tickets - but they cannot come back!

 

See eradicating the virus is electorally popular shutting the borders makes eminent sense and the new Zealanders know it.

[captainb]

 

See eradicating the virus is electorally popular shutting the borders makes eminent sense and the new Zealanders know it.

Lucky we have the same borders and reliance on international markets for key goods as new Zealand... Oh wait. 

Its worked in Isle of Mann and Jersey as well. 

Not so well in the rest of Europe or the americas. Argentina tried for 7 months and counting. But are now bankrupt (again) 

[pig]

 

 This drop in Flu is a strong indicator that containment measures were effective, I mentioned this a couple of months ago with some graphs -a good example of emerging evidence that neccessarily takes time to accumulate. 

  I suspect the current R(o) for flu now, like cv19 has dropped maybe by half. If this marked reduction in Flu trend continues this winter in Northern Hemiphere contries, (which would normally see much more severe flu than other countries which have already had a mild winter this year) this would be pretty strong evidence for covid restrictions.   Data on coughs, colds, STI's etc would be interesting too....

First noticed this with Japan - who would have gone into the crisis in their traditional winter mode, ie mask-wearing and public health conscious (at the time of course Japan like Sweden was being used to try to prove blocking transmission was pointless)

Theres an argument however that its not like flu as it starts to spread. Because of the highly contagious aerosol it may be prone to break out events. Only when its spread everywhere and the probability of break out events is high does it start to resemble flu.

That argument explains the how similar areas or entire countries could be devastated or completely unaffected, and also explains the effectiveness of Japans track and trace strategy.

[winkie]

 

Rules are here - just to say there almost are as many different types of rules as there are countries.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/15/which-european-countries-have-opened-their-borders-ahead-of-the-summer-holiday-season

 

Don't understand your question though - if you go to a green list country there is no need to self isolate on return. But the list of places which don't require proof of COVID PCR negative tests within 48/72 hours before arrival, don't require you to self isolate and are on the UK green list is getting shorter!

As I said.....visit certain countries (even though some areas in those specific countries have very low infection rates) and will have to quarantine for 14 days on arrival home.....meaning no food shopping, no going for a walk, no test available to check if clear or temperature check....lock indoors for two weeks, fair enough, the rules.

My point was can fly out from a tier 3 area to another area in another country but unable to move to certain places in the United Kingdom like Wales that is not so United........we are treating areas here differently and separately, but treating some countries as all bad everywhere.

With this awful global virus things are moving fast, even that link is out of date......for any direction, instruction, rule or recommendation to work the people have to trust and believe it is being done to improve and save lives, it has to make sense and being implemented for the right reasons.....then we will have won half the battle.

[A.steve]

 

Yes. Just recently I heard a politician disagreeing with a scientific advisor. The politician basically said, I asked him for the science to back up his recommendations and advice, but he couldn't give me the science.

In bygone days, this might have been a disagreement between a bureaucrat and a member of the clergy... and the argument might have been that the cleric could not give the administrator "the scripture" that rendered the recommendations an instruction. I guess this is one reason that the bible was so powerful... the cleric could have handed a copy to the administrator and ask to resume the conversation once it had been read and understood.

[slawek]

 

You've not properly read the tweet and them selectively used another source that doesn't back up your assertions. Dr Mark Hammond states:

One reason the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed in the pandemic is that 28,000 more people than expected died at home. Over 25,000 of these were not linked to Covid. Whether they chose to die at home, were forced to die at home, or could’ve been saved if they sought help may never be known

Some of these deaths have been displaced from hospitals as they had terminal illnesses, but we do not know if that was a choice or they were forced to die at home. For the terminally ill palliative care has been disrupted as hospices and hospitals have limited patient numbers and community resources have been stretched. A great deal of fuding for pallative care in the UK is charitable and the hospice movement has been hit hard by a drop in funds. The Carl Heneghan CEBM article you linked to acknowleges this.

A lack of resources in the community for palliative care might have meant previously that people often did not die where they wanted to. One factor that may contribute to this is the greatest fear expressed by many – dying in pain.

The 2014-15 House of Commons Health Committee, End of Life Care report, set out plans to enable people to die at home where that is their preference rather than in hospital.  The ONS data suggests a significant number of people are now choosing to die in the home. Recognising this additional burden on community palliative resources is vital to ensure the move to dying at home is adequately resourced. 

And then there are the patients who've died from home who were too scared or unable to access treatment. Deaths from appendicitis, and cardiac arrest are up from normal and the number of people attending hospital for heat attacks fell by 50% in lockdown. A study of autopsies for the first two months of lockdown revealed only 3% of unexpected community deaths were undiagnosed covid, however, 21% could have probably or possibility been saved if treatment had been received.

The source is the same, ONS, link below. The guy you quoted uses only excess death at home but ignores a drop of excess deaths at hospitals. He then speculates that those deaths could be saved, as one of three possibilities. If you take the whole data it is clear that those deaths are not additional collateral deaths but mostly people who otherwise would die at hospital.

Based on his tweet you incorrectly quoted 25k as excess non-Covid deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/28december2019to10july2020

A graph from ONS report

  

[Arpeggio]

 

Here will do thanks (but by all means take that kind of sh*te elsewhere  )

What's the issue? If you want to talk about Trump there is a thread for that. It's very simple. The excitement and vitriol in your reply makes it look as though your ego is so sensitive that you can't accept being told something so obvious by someone with views you hate.

 

Hilariously its become the poster boy of the (often Trump supporting) china-sniffle brigade, libertarians, anti-vaxxers and so on and its example has been misused to support all sorts of myths and to justify a laissez faire approach to dealing with Covid

I'm sorry if criticism of China insults you, but I'm never going to agree with you that a country that uses concentration camps is not worthy of critique.     https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/chinas-260-concentration-camps-are-proof-of-pure-evil/

Maybe you are pro-concentration camp, who knows? I guess sending people to concentration camps might be one way of trying to get people to agree with you.

 

In a similarly paradoxical vein Andy Burnham is a labour mp apparently supported by plenty of Rwingers in his current anti-lockdown stance. I suspect what he doesn't want is Manchester in a pointless month long lockdown followed by an exacerbated, even longer national lockdown.

Anyway the point is you cannot make head nor tail of either of those situations - and you simply get yourself into a mess -  by simply clinging onto political allegiance at all costs.

If being right wing involves agreeing with Andy Burnham that seems a pretty strange way of clinging onto political allegiance at all costs.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Megadebt]

 

...That argument explains the how similar areas or entire countries could be devastated or completely unaffected, and also explains the effectiveness of Japans track and trace strategy.

I think there may be an unknown X factor here well above the obvious and apparent sex/age/bmi/co-morbidity data groupings:  racial background, smokers and blood groups for example on a smaller but visible scale but maybe something really big based but unknown based on individual genetics.

 Perhaps (a wild guess)  we could find those most predisposed to high risk as around 10% of the population amongst all age groups, irrespective of other factors - if only we knew what to look for : this possible big unkown could be more effective than any vaccine.  

 On a grim note, Nottingham Trent Uni covid outbreak (my old stomping ground Integrated engineering mid 90's)  might yeild some interesting current uk data among younger ages and different racial backgrounds, also with a more randomised influx of foreign and non-Nottingham resident students makes for a good research group with fast infection but hopefully fast localised herd immunity.  

 

[Arpeggio]

 

And even better Jacinda is finally allowing people to leave for Australia with one way tickets - but they cannot come back!

Tony Blair's former advisor is doing that now really?

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

 

I'm sorry if criticism of China insults you, but I'm never going to agree with you that a country that uses concentration camps is not worthy of critique.     https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/chinas-260-concentration-camps-are-proof-of-pure-evil/

Maybe you are pro-concentration camp, who knows? I guess sending people to concentration camps might be one way of trying to get people to agree with you.

Hmm, occupying such a moral high ground is going to be a lonely world, how to square that with our own participation in managing extreme belief systems: Rendition, Guantanamo concentration camp, torture, abu ghraib prison, state executions, drone strikes on civilian targets, illegally invading and leveling sovereign countries... On the flip side, QAnon and the like could be next in the crosshairs 🤔.