Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Coronavirus: Wales to enter 17-day 'circuit break' lockdown, leaked letter reveals

The lockdown will take Wales "back to the situation in March", when businesses shut and people were told they must stay at home.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wales-to-enter-17-day-circuit-break-lockdown-leaked-letter-reveals-12107052

[Arpeggio]

 

So that's what Matt Hancock has been in training for 

 

Quite flexible with no spine.

[Arpeggio]

 

Coronavirus: Wales to enter 17-day 'circuit break' lockdown, leaked letter reveals

The lockdown will take Wales "back to the situation in March", when businesses shut and people were told they must stay at home.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wales-to-enter-17-day-circuit-break-lockdown-leaked-letter-reveals-12107052

European countries are going back into restrictions too  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-europe-second-wave-lockdowns/

The "Lockdown hard and early to succeed, UK was wrong" argument was on this thread once, a few 100 pages ago.

[Megadebt]

 

Yes but what should we do when the virus is endemic. It then becomes impossible to establish index cases. 

 No mate, nothing to worry about, some clever guy on the web with a mrs who is a Dr. told me - just a bit of flu for most, worsened by pathogen spreading masks.  Nothing to see here move on, official numbers are erronous and distorted by many false positives.

 ..'course we have  "heard immunity " too... how can even a half-wit not even spell it right- the odd typo ok, you repeated it too many times. busted. 

Try this instead   коллективный иммунитет or 牛群免疫

  Nothing wrong with changing opinion in line with current events, or even misunderstandng parts of a hugely complex Phd level subject, I'm struggling with the stats and bioscience here too - but I know your game now and your sage wisdom replacing fact with opinion here is hugely irresponsible.

 This authoratitive commentary makes for dismal entertainment but is feindishly clever at misleading and wearing down the opposition, bulking the thread with links you have apparently not even fully read or comprehended yourself.

 The main difference is whilst I supported the high risk SW*****  approach,  there is no Silver bullet here: all options are hugely costly and risky -including 'do nothing'.   You have finally spotted the elephant. How about a constructive approach to solving this?

 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

European countries are going back into restrictions too  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-europe-second-wave-lockdowns/

The "Lockdown hard and early to succeed, UK was wrong" argument was on this thread once, a few 100 pages ago.

This is so bizarre. At least in March there was the we don't know what we are up again factor. Now we know we are facing a virus that has a risk profile equivalent to flu and is only really a risk to the unwell. 

[The Preacherman]

 

 No mate, nothing to worry about, some clever guy on the web with a mrs who is a Dr. told me - just a bit of flu for most, worsened by pathogen spreading masks.  Nothing to see here move on, official numbers are erronous and distorted by many false positives.

 ..'course we have  "heard immunity " too... how can even a half-wit not even spell it right- the odd typo ok, you repeated it too many times. busted. 

Try this instead   коллективный иммунитет or 牛群免疫

  Nothing wrong with changing opinion in line with current events, or even misunderstandng parts of a hugely complex Phd level subject, I'm struggling with the stats and bioscience here too - but I know your game now and your sage wisdom replacing fact with opinion here is hugely irresponsible.

 This authoratitive commentary makes for dismal entertainment but is feindishly clever at misleading and wearing down the opposition, bulking the thread with links you have apparently not even fully read or comprehended yourself.

 The main difference is whilst I supported the high risk SW*****  approach,  there is no Silver bullet here: all options are hugely costly and risky -including 'do nothing'.   You have finally spotted the elephant. How about a constructive approach to solving this?

 

 

Please elaborate on your constructive approach to solving this.

We know the risk of fatality and we know the costs. So please make your strategy for dealing with this known. 

[The Preacherman]

 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

 

[Arpeggio]

 

This is so bizarre. At least in March there was the we don't know what we are up again factor. Now we know we are facing a virus that has a risk profile equivalent to flu and is only really a risk to the unwell. 

Indeed it is. I like that you question things.

Remember the reports about 1.5 million+ on the brink of starvation if we carry on like this?

Edited October 17, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

Indeed it is. I like that you question things.

Remember the reports about 1.5 million+ on the brink of starvation if we carry on like this?

Yes, and now even the WHO have been able to point to the damage done by lockdowns.

[The Preacherman]

 

Indeed it is. I like that you question things.

Remember the reports about 1.5 million+ on the brink of starvation if we carry on like this?

The World Bank are estimating that 88 million if we take lighter interventions to 150 million if strong lockdowns are used will be plunged into poverty. 

Why is this necessary? 

COVID-19 to Add as Many as 150 Million Extreme Poor by 2021

[The Preacherman]

Excellent article by Lord Sumpton which asks many question of our rulers which they are failing to answer. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8851059/LORD-SUMPTION-Im-meet-person-plans-obey-mixing-ban.html

LORD SUMPTION: I'm yet to meet a single person who plans to obey the ban on meeting friends and family indoors... why on earth should they? 

Everything in science is provisional but one thing is certain about Covid-19. Lockdowns do not stop the disease. They merely postpone infections until after they are lifted. 

[The Preacherman]

 

Excellent article by Lord Sumpton which asks many question of our rulers which they are failing to answer. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8851059/LORD-SUMPTION-Im-meet-person-plans-obey-mixing-ban.html

LORD SUMPTION: I'm yet to meet a single person who plans to obey the ban on meeting friends and family indoors... why on earth should they? 

Everything in science is provisional but one thing is certain about Covid-19. Lockdowns do not stop the disease. They merely postpone infections until after they are lifted. 

We broke the rule of six last night. 

My brother and his wife dropped off their son for a sleepover. There was 8 in the house. Should we be fined? 

[Megadebt]

 

Please elaborate on your constructive approach to solving this.

We know the risk of fatality and we know the costs. So please make your strategy for dealing with this known. 

 You ask me but my position has been known and consistent on this for the past six months, I've been following this thread from late January.  For your huge input here on this thread I'm puzzled that you don't seem to have any strategy yourself. 

 No easy solutions here. All options are highly risky and expensive - including doing nothing.  This is the big difference between us  - as opposed to the  "this is a total over reaction, just a bit of flu taking the oldies and fatties out, we know all the risks now -nothing to see here". 

 All decision making has been flawed due to known unknowns and lack of data and testing, this compounded by Boris being awol too long with no-one daring to take the steering wheel.   I disagree that we know the risk of fatality and all the costs for certain yet-although this is getting clearer with time, CFR is a variable too and there are the unknown effects of long covid. 

 When questioning what 'blood price' might be sacrificed to save the Uk economy I was accused of "intellectual dishonesty" by another member here recently.  Without being able to quantify risks against costs this kind of protest mumsnet-think is moronic.  A plan 'B' 250k deathtoll over the summer would have been my starting bid.   

 

 

 My solution would have been much higher risk -but accepting it as that, when the 'heard immunity'  idea was leaked to guage public reaction it was overwhelmingly rejected by most. Public opinion is changing now I accept.

 Prioritise mass testing from day one in a war effort style rather than making ventilators,  strong containment but in a softer Sweden style,  much earlier release of lockdown and modulating the 'rate of burn' over summer with the restrictions based on local NHS capacity albeit a likely much higher deathtoll.  

 Brexit would be put on hold, a coalition government would form (to de-politicise policy) and economy put onto a war footing with a compulsory 'cost + 5%' for buying all government services. This is an unprecedented national emergency 

 I have always been sceptical about pinning our hopes on producing several billion doses of vaccine within months and now we are (almost) back to square one again. There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature here and how much lockdown fatigue has now weakened our current containment options this time around. 

 With rates so high Track and trace is beyond repair now and the cat is well and truly out of the bag now so a fundamnetal rethink on that too, to assume everyone is a carrier unless recently tested. 

 We are in a bad place headed for much worse this winter, my solution 'keep calm, carry on'   and  'protect and survive' but brace for very hard times rather than pretend there is no problem and hope it all goes away in time for Christmas.  

 

 This is something I recorded for Anna Brees "voice of the people" but it was rejected-ostenbsibly due to 'sound quality' , so I stuck it on my own channel instead.  She has 150 vlogs, all highly critical of lockdown with not a single dissenting voice...independent journalism where everyone gets a voice as she likes to call it.

  Megadebt unmasked.

 

[This time]

 

 

 

If she'd died of covid she'd be just another sub human with a pre-existing condition. Why do you suddenly care when covid killed her indirectly?

[onlooker]

 

 You ask me but my position has been known and consistent on this for the past six months, I've been following this thread from late January.  For your huge input here on this thread I'm puzzled that you don't seem to have any strategy yourself. 

 No easy solutions here. All options are highly risky and expensive - including doing nothing.  This is the big difference between us  - as opposed to the  "this is a total over reaction, just a bit of flu taking the oldies and fatties out, we know all the risks now -nothing to see here". 

 All decision making has been flawed due to known unknowns and lack of data and testing, this compounded by Boris being awol too long with no-one daring to take the steering wheel.   I disagree that we know the risk of fatality and all the costs for certain yet-although this is getting clearer with time, CFR is a variable too and there are the unknown effects of long covid. 

 When questioning what 'blood price' might be sacrificed to save the Uk economy I was accused of "intellectual dishonesty" by another member here recently.  Without being able to quantify risks against costs this kind of protest mumsnet-think is moronic.  A plan 'B' 250k deathtoll over the summer would have been my starting bid.   

 

 

 My solution would have been much higher risk -but accepting it as that, when the 'heard immunity'  idea was leaked to guage public reaction it was overwhelmingly rejected by most. Public opinion is changing now I accept.

 Prioritise mass testing from day one in a war effort style rather than making ventilators,  strong containment but in a softer Sweden style,  much earlier release of lockdown and modulating the 'rate of burn' over summer with the restrictions based on local NHS capacity albeit a likely much higher deathtoll.  

 Brexit would be put on hold, a coalition government would form (to de-politicise policy) and economy put onto a war footing with a compulsory 'cost + 5%' for buying all government services. This is an unprecedented national emergency 

 I have always been sceptical about pinning our hopes on producing several billion doses of vaccine within months and now we are (almost) back to square one again. There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature here and how much lockdown fatigue has now weakened our current containment options this time around. 

 With rates so high Track and trace is beyond repair now and the cat is well and truly out of the bag now so a fundamnetal rethink on that too, to assume everyone is a carrier unless recently tested. 

 We are in a bad place headed for much worse this winter, my solution 'keep calm, carry on'   and  'protect and survive' but brace for very hard times rather than pretend there is no problem and hope it all goes away in time for Christmas.  

 

 This is something I recorded for Anna Brees "voice of the people" but it was rejected-ostenbsibly due to 'sound quality' , so I stuck it on my own channel instead.  She has 150 vlogs, all highly critical of lockdown with not a single dissenting voice...independent journalism where everyone gets a voice as she likes to call it.

  Megadebt unmasked.

 

Yours is a thoughtful post, but surely the basic question was, from the outset, 'Could the virus be contained, and eventually eradicated?'

Australia and New Zealand appear to have done it, but at the price that they must isolate their populations from now until an effective vaccine becomes widely available. Some Asian coultries appear to have done it, but I am suspicious they have a high level of natural immunity already, having been exposed to similar virues in the past.

If the UK cannot be isolated (it can't) then the plan must be to let the virus spread in a roughly controlled manner, while the medics learn better ways of treating it. This is largely what has happened.

[hotblack42]

Just changed postcode on Covid app after vacating the London flat for good yesterday to live full time in the flat we rent on W Sussex coast.

Had a look at the rules.  There are many screens organised into sections covering pretty much all scenarios and questions.

People being 'confused' when wanting to do something that common sense tells them is unlikely to be allowed & is covered in a free app, is looking an awful like wilful ignorance.

I'll miss Wanstead with its green spaces, polite people (yes, really) & quick access to the centre, but relieved to get out of London for the medium term TBH.

[The Preacherman]

New Zealand fails to eliminate covid-19 again!

New Zealand's three-week streak without local Covid case ends as port worker falls ill

[Bruce Banner]

 

Excellent article by Lord Sumpton which asks many question of our rulers which they are failing to answer. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8851059/LORD-SUMPTION-Im-meet-person-plans-obey-mixing-ban.html

LORD SUMPTION: I'm yet to meet a single person who plans to obey the ban on meeting friends and family indoors... why on earth should they? 

Everything in science is provisional but one thing is certain about Covid-19. Lockdowns do not stop the disease. They merely postpone infections until after they are lifted. 

And there we have it, in a nutshell, from a retired Supreme Court Judge....

"There is a nasty divide opening up between those who want to take reasonable steps to protect themselves and live as normally as possible without going over the top and zealots who think that, as a matter of principle, the state should take over our lives, occupy our sitting rooms and keep us infantilised at home. What has happened to rational thought in Britain?

Rational thought has been banished by fear. Fear encourages unthinking responses. It leads to intolerant conformism and ill-tempered abuse of anyone who steps out of line. 

It provokes panicked demands for government action, without reflecting on the limits of what government action can achieve. This is an atmosphere in which the advocates of coercion and authoritarian styles of government have always thrived.

But the main culprits are not the public but Ministers, who have got caught in a trap of their own making. They stoked up people’s fears to justify their decisions and induce compliance. They promised the impossible and, when the inevitable failure came, they blamed it on the public for not complying with their commands. The real reason Ministers have not dared to answer the questions posed by their policies is that their purpose is not to suppress the virus, which they must know is impossible. It is to shield themselves from responsibility.

They believe they will be criticised for the Covid-19 deaths but that they will get away with the indirect consequences of their brutal countermeasures: the cancer deaths, the loneliness and mental breakdowns, the poverty and job destruction, the public and private bankruptcy. Truth is the first victim of this process but it is not very high on this Government’s agenda.

Having got itself into a pattern of coercion, the Government does not dare to change course, for fear of discrediting its own past decisions.

Yet even fear has its limits. As public trust drains away, it is forced to keep up the atmosphere of panic by ever more hyped-up alarms, misleading statistics, draconian fines, bullying threats, appeals to sneaks and informers and cavalier disregard for the basic values by which people live.

I have yet to meet anyone in London who intends to comply with the ban on receiving friends and family in their house. So here is a final question for the Government to answer: Why on earth should they?"

[The Preacherman]

 

 You ask me but my position has been known and consistent on this for the past six months, I've been following this thread from late January.  For your huge input here on this thread I'm puzzled that you don't seem to have any strategy yourself. 

 No easy solutions here. All options are highly risky and expensive - including doing nothing.  This is the big difference between us  - as opposed to the  "this is a total over reaction, just a bit of flu taking the oldies and fatties out, we know all the risks now -nothing to see here". 

 All decision making has been flawed due to known unknowns and lack of data and testing, this compounded by Boris being awol too long with no-one daring to take the steering wheel.   I disagree that we know the risk of fatality and all the costs for certain yet-although this is getting clearer with time, CFR is a variable too and there are the unknown effects of long covid. 

 When questioning what 'blood price' might be sacrificed to save the Uk economy I was accused of "intellectual dishonesty" by another member here recently.  Without being able to quantify risks against costs this kind of protest mumsnet-think is moronic.  A plan 'B' 250k deathtoll over the summer would have been my starting bid.   

 

 

 My solution would have been much higher risk -but accepting it as that, when the 'heard immunity'  idea was leaked to guage public reaction it was overwhelmingly rejected by most. Public opinion is changing now I accept.

 Prioritise mass testing from day one in a war effort style rather than making ventilators,  strong containment but in a softer Sweden style,  much earlier release of lockdown and modulating the 'rate of burn' over summer with the restrictions based on local NHS capacity albeit a likely much higher deathtoll.  

 Brexit would be put on hold, a coalition government would form (to de-politicise policy) and economy put onto a war footing with a compulsory 'cost + 5%' for buying all government services. This is an unprecedented national emergency 

 I have always been sceptical about pinning our hopes on producing several billion doses of vaccine within months and now we are (almost) back to square one again. There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature here and how much lockdown fatigue has now weakened our current containment options this time around. 

 With rates so high Track and trace is beyond repair now and the cat is well and truly out of the bag now so a fundamnetal rethink on that too, to assume everyone is a carrier unless recently tested. 

 We are in a bad place headed for much worse this winter, my solution 'keep calm, carry on'   and  'protect and survive' but brace for very hard times rather than pretend there is no problem and hope it all goes away in time for Christmas.  

 

 This is something I recorded for Anna Brees "voice of the people" but it was rejected-ostenbsibly due to 'sound quality' , so I stuck it on my own channel instead.  She has 150 vlogs, all highly critical of lockdown with not a single dissenting voice...independent journalism where everyone gets a voice as she likes to call it.

  Megadebt unmasked.

 

It is naive to be believe that you can contain a virus that has already spread in the community by means of tracing.

I am a strong believer in personal liberty and responsibility. We can not continue to impose increasingly draconian, unscientific and poorly though out restrictions on the population. The costs exceed the benefits. 

Instead present the risks and let people decide. 

[The Preacherman]

 

And there we have it, in a nutshell, from a retired Supreme Court Judge....

"There is a nasty divide opening up between those who want to take reasonable steps to protect themselves and live as normally as possible without going over the top and zealots who think that, as a matter of principle, the state should take over our lives, occupy our sitting rooms and keep us infantilised at home. What has happened to rational thought in Britain?

Rational thought has been banished by fear. Fear encourages unthinking responses. It leads to intolerant conformism and ill-tempered abuse of anyone who steps out of line. 

It provokes panicked demands for government action, without reflecting on the limits of what government action can achieve. This is an atmosphere in which the advocates of coercion and authoritarian styles of government have always thrived.

But the main culprits are not the public but Ministers, who have got caught in a trap of their own making. They stoked up people’s fears to justify their decisions and induce compliance. They promised the impossible and, when the inevitable failure came, they blamed it on the public for not complying with their commands. The real reason Ministers have not dared to answer the questions posed by their policies is that their purpose is not to suppress the virus, which they must know is impossible. It is to shield themselves from responsibility.

They believe they will be criticised for the Covid-19 deaths but that they will get away with the indirect consequences of their brutal countermeasures: the cancer deaths, the loneliness and mental breakdowns, the poverty and job destruction, the public and private bankruptcy. Truth is the first victim of this process but it is not very high on this Government’s agenda.

Having got itself into a pattern of coercion, the Government does not dare to change course, for fear of discrediting its own past decisions.

Yet even fear has its limits. As public trust drains away, it is forced to keep up the atmosphere of panic by ever more hyped-up alarms, misleading statistics, draconian fines, bullying threats, appeals to sneaks and informers and cavalier disregard for the basic values by which people live.

I have yet to meet anyone in London who intends to comply with the ban on receiving friends and family in their house. So here is a final question for the Government to answer: Why on earth should they?"

The whole article is an elegant take down of the hole that our government (and the governments of many other countries have dug). I blame an Politician's obsession with superficial opinion to win power rather than trying to understand to the deeper wants and needs of the population they are elected to serve. 

[pig]

 

My understanding is that some people are more prone to spread than others. So if 1 person is a super spreader a high percentage of your room will end up infected. On the other hand some may be infected but do not infect others. 

I would describe it as being more akin to Russian roulette. There is a super spreader bullet only in one chamber. If few are infected the likelihood of a superspreader being in the room is small. Once infection becomes common place the chance of a super spreader being in the room increases. 

There’s been what 50K confirmed deaths to Flus 500 odd ?

However that isn’t quite saying Covid is  hundred times deadlier than the Flu.

In conjunction with the k variable what it says to me is that the mechanism by which Covid spreads is different.

With a k variable of 0.1 nearly all spreaders are ‘super’ - or at least we can say it tends to spread through superspreading events without which it can fizzle out.

[The Preacherman]

 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

There’s been what 50K confirmed deaths to Flus 500 odd ?

However that isn’t quite saying Covid is  hundred times deadlier than the Flu.

In conjunction with the k variable what it says to me is that the mechanism by which Covid spreads is different.

With a k variable of 0.1 nearly all spreaders are ‘super’ - or at least we can say it tends to spread through superspreading events without which it can fizzle out.

That doesn't fit with what is starting to emerge. Some people have a greater propensity to emitt droplets and aerosol this tends to be higher if you are obese. You also need to be shed virus. A stereotypical superspreader will have a fever and be fat. 

[pig]

 

That doesn't fit with what is starting to emerge. Some people have a greater propensity to emitt droplets and aerosol this tends to be higher if you are obese. You also need to be shed virus. A stereotypical superspreader will have a fever and be fat. 

I'm sure some people do, and I'm sure fat people are an interesting detail to the pandemic.

But that neither confirms nor contradicts overdispersion and I'd guess it spread like wildfire through universities not because university students are fat but because of the amount of super-spreading events...