Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[pig]

 

Why would we want to do that? 

The moonshot testing idea falls apart under close scrutiny and creates more issue than it solves. 

You’d only do that if you were in favour of public health and the economy.
No point if you’re out to kill/incapacitate as many people as quickly as possible 

[captainb]

 

Since humans until relatively recently only lived into their 30s you could say that about a lot of illness prevention.

Not actually that relevant. 

Child mortality was much higher so yes the "average" age was in the 30s.

But if you made it to 16 your chances of getting to 60 were pretty reasonable. (unless a casual war). 

Hence roman senators being in their 60s or 70s

Edited October 18, 2020 by captainb

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

The romans is still very recent for humans but I did not specify.

 

Edit: apparently
"For much of human history, average life expectancy used to be 20-30 years. By 1900, it had climbed to about 31 years..."

Edited October 18, 2020 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore

[Bruce Banner]

 

Under the Coronavirus act they can remove you from your home on mere suspicion of being infectious. I read the rules are different for cremation of the dead also, I believe it is something like only one person needs to sign off and there is no coroner allowed, the family are not allowed to question the cause of death.

"A public health officer may exercise the powers conferred by this paragraph in relation to a person only if the officer considers that it is necessary and proportionate to do so—

(a)in the interests of the person,

(b)for the protection of other people, or

(c)for the maintenance of public health."

I can understand (b) and (c), but (a) looks like a suspension of personal liberty .

[Timm]

16,982 cases.

67 deaths (Last Sunday was 65).

Apparently there is another glitch with testing so cases likely to spike Mon / Tues.

[captainb]

50 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

The romans is still very recent for humans but I did not specify.

 

Edit: apparently
"For much of human history, average life expectancy used to be 20-30 years. By 1900, it had climbed to about 31 years..."

Yes but that's an average bought down by a significant number dying at 0 to 2 years. And then some more in 2 to 10 years. 

People had 6 kids and you would expect 2 to pass at least. 

Saying average expectancy was 30,gives the impression that the average person died in their 30s. If you lasted childhood you could expect 60+

[captainb]

 

16,982 cases.

67 deaths (Last Sunday was 65).

Apparently there is another glitch with testing so cases likely to spike Mon / Tues.

Have they not upgraded excel again? 

Just a budget in the billions

[The Preacherman]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-cycles/

Lockdown cycles

Prof Carl Heneghan & Tom Jefferson

The appearance of SARS CoV-2 has been deemed worthy of extraordinary measures to contain or suppress its spread.... Such extraordinary measures imply that the epidemic of SARS-CoV2 has features that are out of the ordinary when compared to previous pandemics. But is this right? Or are we setting a precedent for the way we deal with infectious diseases?

... The four human coronaviruses that already circulate are also seasonal. A US study that followed over a thousand individuals for eight years found they are most common between December and May, with only 2.5 per cent of infections occurring between June and September. Why would it be assumed that Covid-19 be any different?

... The past has all been about influenza, where the historical threshold has been around 400 primary care consultations per 100,000 registered patients. If you set your threshold as low as 50 cases of infection per 100,000 people (irrespective of whether they are ill or not) as appears to be the case with Covid-19, then you have a problem. Why? Because in autumn – as soon as schools and universities go back – you’ll rapidly exceed that threshold.

... Given that Covid does not appear to have a vastly higher mortality rate than that linked to other common circulating pathogens then, we need to ask ourselves: what are the long-term consequences of the ‘special attention’ paid to Covid-19?

The first and most apparent is that influenza is not the only infectious agent and that there are many more nasty customers out there, some of which we know nothing about. The second consequence is the heightened sensitivity around what was – until February this year – considered everyday nuisances: it’s the ‘flu season’ as we once knew it. Third, we are now used to various public health policies affecting whole populations made on little or no evidence. 

 

This could set a worrying precedent. The current events are leading us into a cycle of lockdown. There is little attention being paid to the seasonal effect and the endgame. If a ‘circuit breaker’ is adopted, what happens when this ends in three weeks? Previous coronaviruses have circulated until spring, and the current Covid virus seems to be operating similarly.

If we do not account for the ‘lockdown cycle’ then the logical consequence could be a never-ending circle of closing and opening of society, probably local and possibly national with unforeseen consequences. This cycle has already begun, and with such low thresholds for intervening and high sensitivities for Covid-19, it is likely to continue.

Logic has played little part in all this; short-termism has dominated the strategic decisions so far. And as Covid fatigue sets in, we need a long-term plan that controls the impact of the disease while minimising the disruption for the wider society. If we don’t, then we need to prepare ourselves to get ready for the annual policy merry go round with its possible benefits and certain harms. 

[captainb]

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-cycles/

Lockdown cycles

Prof Carl Heneghan & Tom Jefferson

The appearance of SARS CoV-2 has been deemed worthy of extraordinary measures to contain or suppress its spread.... Such extraordinary measures imply that the epidemic of SARS-CoV2 has features that are out of the ordinary when compared to previous pandemics. But is this right? Or are we setting a precedent for the way we deal with infectious diseases?

... The four human coronaviruses that already circulate are also seasonal. A US study that followed over a thousand individuals for eight years found they are most common between December and May, with only 2.5 per cent of infections occurring between June and September. Why would it be assumed that Covid-19 be any different?

... The past has all been about influenza, where the historical threshold has been around 400 primary care consultations per 100,000 registered patients. If you set your threshold as low as 50 cases of infection per 100,000 people (irrespective of whether they are ill or not) as appears to be the case with Covid-19, then you have a problem. Why? Because in autumn – as soon as schools and universities go back – you’ll rapidly exceed that threshold.

... Given that Covid does not appear to have a vastly higher mortality rate than that linked to other common circulating pathogens then, we need to ask ourselves: what are the long-term consequences of the ‘special attention’ paid to Covid-19?

The first and most apparent is that influenza is not the only infectious agent and that there are many more nasty customers out there, some of which we know nothing about. The second consequence is the heightened sensitivity around what was – until February this year – considered everyday nuisances: it’s the ‘flu season’ as we once knew it. Third, we are now used to various public health policies affecting whole populations made on little or no evidence. 

 

This could set a worrying precedent. The current events are leading us into a cycle of lockdown. There is little attention being paid to the seasonal effect and the endgame. If a ‘circuit breaker’ is adopted, what happens when this ends in three weeks? Previous coronaviruses have circulated until spring, and the current Covid virus seems to be operating similarly.

If we do not account for the ‘lockdown cycle’ then the logical consequence could be a never-ending circle of closing and opening of society, probably local and possibly national with unforeseen consequences. This cycle has already begun, and with such low thresholds for intervening and high sensitivities for Covid-19, it is likely to continue.

Logic has played little part in all this; short-termism has dominated the strategic decisions so far. And as Covid fatigue sets in, we need a long-term plan that controls the impact of the disease while minimising the disruption for the wider society. If we don’t, then we need to prepare ourselves to get ready for the annual policy merry go round with its possible benefits and certain harms. 

 

What they are seasonal in the northern hemisphere? 

Thought it was all help out to help out. 

Plan at the moment seems to be look like doing something at vast collateral damage so politicians can say they did something. Great. 

[Peter Hun]

 

 

 

They aren't stopping anyone driving in or out of London. I just arrived back from Yorkshire.

[Timm]

 

Have they not upgraded excel again? 

Just a budget in the billions

Something to do with sending too many samples to Glasgow and they have not all been processed.

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lockdown-cycles/

Lockdown cycles

(...)

Logic has played little part in all this; short-termism has dominated the strategic decisions so far. And as Covid fatigue sets in, we need a long-term plan that controls the impact of the disease while minimising the disruption for the wider society. If we don’t, then we need to prepare ourselves to get ready for the annual policy merry go round with its possible benefits and certain harms. 

 

The long term plan will be when the power of the gatekeeper (Oxford) test is recognised.

And the great thing is, it works on other viruses too.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Timm

[swankyman]

 

I think it is increasingly looks like they help it spread just by being more contagious.

Yes, doubtless there are also hoards of shouty fat old to middle age men who also help the spread, but I think it was the vulnerable driving the NHS fatalities. 

 

Maybe they are more contagious but there are not that many out partying and actually infecting people. They do say V.D. is rife in old peoples homes though 😃. Good on them 👍

Edited October 18, 2020 by swankyman

[swankyman]

 

Since humans until relatively recently only lived into their 30s you could say that about a lot of illness prevention.

Is this true?

When I walk through old cemeteries I'm always struck by the age people died a few hundred years ago. Almost the same as now except for the large number of young children.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

ok, I see what you are saying about the distortion of the average but with respect to:

 

...In the case of COVID19, i think the conclusion has to be that displacement of flu (if that is real) will have made space for SARS-CoV-2 in nature.

I still say "...you could say that about a lot of illness prevention."

 

 

[Riedquat]

 

Is this true?

When I walk through old cemeteries I'm always struck by the age people died a few hundred years ago. Almost the same as now except for the large number of young children.

It's a common misconception that 30s or 40s was the usual age of death. Whilst you've got a higher chance of surviving to a great old age now the 30s or 40s thing was a mean, very heavily skewed by high infant mortality. If you live to 30 you're not all that much more likely to die before you're 50 then than now. But you're much more  likely to survive childhood now.

[FTB-house-hunter]

It's not very hard, is it?

[Arpeggio]

 

It's not very hard, is it?

0:30 "Come on and read some data"....OK then

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Page 4. Reported use of cloth face covering or mask 14 days before illness onset.....

Never 6

Rarely 6

Sometimes 11

Often 22

Always 108

Do you look forward a world of censorship where big tech silences people? even if they are a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852763/Twitter-removes-misleading-tweet-COVID-adviser-Dr-Scott-Atlas-said-masks-dont-work.html

Dr Scott Atlas is a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and is board-certified in diagnostic radiology. He served as a professor and chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center from 1998 to 2012, has an MD degree from the University of Chicago School of Medicine, and has previously provided healthcare policy advice to various businesses and presidential candidates, including Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

 

"A public health officer may exercise the powers conferred by this paragraph in relation to a person only if the officer considers that it is necessary and proportionate to do so—

(a)in the interests of the person,

(b)for the protection of other people, or

(c)for the maintenance of public health."

I can understand (b) and (c), but (a) looks like a suspension of personal liberty .

You will find that the higher deaths are in the most oppressive locked down parts of the world. Victoria Australia has 90% of all Australia's deaths for example.

[The Preacherman]

 

It's not very hard, is it?

Not very hard but also not very effective. 

[The Preacherman]

 

Something to do with sending too many samples to Glasgow and they have not all been processed.

The long term plan will be when the power of the gatekeeper (Oxford) test is recognised.

And the great thing is, it works on other viruses too.

Sorry but you've still not explained why you'd want to covid test people on a daily basis. 

[FTB-house-hunter]

 

Not very hard but also not very effective. 

Why am i not suprised...

[The Preacherman]

What second wave? 

[Arpeggio]

 

Not very hard but also not very effective. 

 

I sometimes wonder if there's another reason for the nostrils pointing downward (apart from rain etc.). With the guy in that clip the exhalation is going mostly up and to the sides a bit, therefore spreading around in the air for the next lucky person to pass, taking longer to sink to the floor.

Breathing through the nose, it will go down towards the floor and if you are walking forwards absorbed into your clothing, which isn't where people normally breath as they don't put their head on your chest and start inhaling unless they are feeling really saucy.

There's also the issue of bacteria in certain parts of our body that would kill us if on other parts, such as strep. Re-breathing expelled air, interesting.

[The Preacherman]

 

Why am i not suprised...

When some shows me a large scale trial of mask usage that proves the efficacy of mask wearing in preventing the transmission of covid-19, I'll shut up. 

[The Preacherman]

 

 

I sometimes wonder if there's another reason for the nostrils pointing downward (apart from rain etc.). With the guy in that clip the exhalation is going mostly up and to the sides a bit, therefore spreading around in the air for the next lucky person to pass, taking longer to sink to the floor.

Breathing through the nose, it will go down towards the floor and if you are walking forwards absorbed into your clothing, which isn't where people normally breath as they don't put their head on your chest and start inhaling unless they are feeling really saucy.

There's also the issue of bacteria in certain parts of our body that would kill us if on other parts, such as strep. Re-breathing expelled air, interesting.

Not a good idea spreading the bacterial fauna from your mouth, noise, throat, gut and lungs to your face.