slawek Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, 24gray24 said: Every year more support. Annual transfer payments or else gradual impoverishment then depopulation of the south. Better to fix the architecture that's causing it, but that's not so easy. It didn't happen between north and south in the UK. There is some level of support that creates an equilibrium. The money must be spent wisely, not just on hands out but on improving infrastructure, education etc so that those regions can support themselves. Technology can help, remote working allowed people to move out from business centers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, slawek said: It didn't happen between north and south in the UK. There is some level of support that creates an equilibrium. The money must be spent wisely, not just on hands out but on improving infrastructure, education etc so that those regions can support themselves. Technology can help, remote working allowed people to move out from business centers. The north got the dole. But not much else. It annoyed the Tories that it didn't depopulate. I'm not sure governments can afford to do that now long term. The debts are so much bigger and so are the failing areas. Not enough germans to pay for the south every year. (Thatcher used the revenue from oil). And how do you fix italy? It's not really infrastructure. It's government and banks and tax avoidance and a whole culture of corruption. And a masterful resistance to change. And the baleful effect of the euro on a country that likes to devalue its currency by overspending. I just can't see Brussels fixing it easily or quickly when even the judges are complicit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, 24gray24 said: The north got the dole. But not much else. It annoyed the Tories that it didn't depopulate. I'm not sure governments can afford to do that now long term. The debts are so much bigger and so are the failing areas. Not enough germans to pay for the south every year. (Thatcher used the revenue from oil). And how do you fix italy? It's not really infrastructure. It's government and banks and tax avoidance and a whole culture of corruption. And a masterful resistance to change. And the baleful effect of the euro on a country that likes to devalue its currency by overspending. I just can't see Brussels fixing it easily or quickly when even the judges are complicit. This is rather a different problem. A general Europe decline due to the population ageing. I think the issue can still be countered by technology and immigration. The global warning will displace people, Europe needs a plan how to deal with it. Europe still has a lot of wealth and knowledge to progress. China was in a decline but managed to rebuild almost from scratch. I don't know much about Italy. From my limited experience there are two Italies, a north part which modern not much different from other core European countries and south which is more "Italian". I think the Italy has changed already, so it is not case the problems are not fixable. The more they are engaged with the rest of Europe the more they will change. The EU has done a lot of good things in south, Portugal and Spain were backwaters of Europe run by dictators. Thanks to the EU they have improved their infrastructure significantly, built a tourism and other industries, especially Spain. The same has happened to EE, there is a huge improvements last 20 years. So it can be done but won't happen overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 7 hours ago, 24gray24 said: Every year more support. Annual transfer payments or else gradual impoverishment then depopulation of the south. Better to fix the architecture that's causing it, but that's not so easy. I came across this interesting statistic yesterday: Between the end of 2016 Q2 and the end of 2021 Q1 the UK economy shrank by 4.3%, while the other EU states grew by 1.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: I came across this interesting statistic yesterday: Between the end of 2016 Q2 and the end of 2021 Q1 the UK economy shrank by 4.3%, while the other EU states grew by 1.3%. FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 13 hours ago, 24gray24 said: The north got the dole. But not much else. It annoyed the Tories that it didn't depopulate. I'm not sure governments can afford to do that now long term. The debts are so much bigger and so are the failing areas. Not enough germans to pay for the south every year. (Thatcher used the revenue from oil). And how do you fix italy? It's not really infrastructure. It's government and banks and tax avoidance and a whole culture of corruption. And a masterful resistance to change. And the baleful effect of the euro on a country that likes to devalue its currency by overspending. I just can't see Brussels fixing it easily or quickly when even the judges are complicit. The Euro has been a catastrophe - and typically a manmade one. No-one knows how to fix it. My 2c? Either Germany/frugal countries agree to subsidise southern europe for ever, or Germany/frugal countries leave the Euro and allow then others to devalue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, dryrot said: The Euro has been a catastrophe - and typically a manmade one. No-one knows how to fix it. My 2c? Either Germany/frugal countries agree to subsidise southern europe for ever, or Germany/frugal countries leave the Euro and allow then others to devalue. The euro has remained stable vs dollar in last few decades within 1% difference of where started Pound lost 20% against both and other major currencies these posts from British eurosceptics are hilarious, I need to keep slapping your face with facts and reality how does it feel to have a 5th of your wealth robbed in an indirect tax via devaluation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, dryrot said: The Euro has been a catastrophe - and typically a manmade one. No-one knows how to fix it. My 2c? Either Germany/frugal countries agree to subsidise southern europe for ever, or Germany/frugal countries leave the Euro and allow then others to devalue. It is good that we have GBP so that our government can decide to devalue our wages by devaluing our currency. Otherwise we might have real problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, dugsbody said: It is good that we have GBP so that our government can decide to devalue our wages by devaluing our currency. Otherwise we might have real problems. Pound lost 20% its value and there is no increase in exports to show for it, if anything because of Brexit stupidity exports have fallen but yeh it’s the euro that’s in trouble they just regurgitate what Torygraph tells em and not look at reality Edited July 7, 2021 by yelims Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coypondboy Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 How FOM helped the poorest in europe escape to the UK to be looked after by the UK taxpayer interesting article wonder how many came over in a similar situation with many working cash in hand and topped up with benefits. Might explain the older generation voting for brexit and why so many left their own countries to come here, I would have done the same in their situation but a disaster for the countries they left. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/films-reveal-bradford-schools-efforts-to-help-roma-pupils-during-pandemic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Don’t worry Boris of “frack business” and “let bodies pile up” fame is resolving all the issue https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/office-for-national-statistics-ons-northern-ireland-scotland-wales-b944324.html More deaths than births in UK for first time in nearly 50 years A greater number of deaths were registered in the UK in 2020 than in any year since the First World War. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 5 hours ago, rollover said: FT No doubt the usual suspects will be along shortly to deny this but it looks like Project Fear's predictions may turn out to have been a large tad too optimistic. NB The second graph is interesting. It shows that contrary to what most of the public believed even pre referendum migration from the EU was on a declining trajectory. This is not surprising to anyone who has seen the historic migration figures, the introduction of FoM allows citizens of poorer countries to migrate to richer ones and it then takes around 20yrs for a new equilibrium to be reached. You can see this more clearly from the useful breakdown available on Migration Watch UK. Brexit occurred just as we were coming back into overall equilibrium. Brexit's sponsors would have known this so clearly Brexit was never about stopping migration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 UK Housing Boom May Derail Post-Brexit Trade Dreams | Investing News | US News By Reuters|July 7, 2021 By Andy Bruce LONDON (Reuters) - History suggests Britain's house price surge could threaten hopes of post-Brexit export-powered growth, if finance minister Rishi Sunak uses the housing market to fuel the economy like his predecessors did. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-07-07/uk-housing-boom-may-derail-post-brexit-trade-dreams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, yelims said: UK Housing Boom May Derail Post-Brexit Trade Dreams | Investing News | US News By Reuters|July 7, 2021 By Andy Bruce LONDON (Reuters) - History suggests Britain's house price surge could threaten hopes of post-Brexit export-powered growth, if finance minister Rishi Sunak uses the housing market to fuel the economy like his predecessors did. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-07-07/uk-housing-boom-may-derail-post-brexit-trade-dreams Nice correlation/anti-correlation: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, yelims said: UK Housing Boom May Derail Post-Brexit Trade Dreams | Investing News | US News By Reuters|July 7, 2021 By Andy Bruce LONDON (Reuters) - History suggests Britain's house price surge could threaten hopes of post-Brexit export-powered growth, if finance minister Rishi Sunak uses the housing market to fuel the economy like his predecessors did. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-07-07/uk-housing-boom-may-derail-post-brexit-trade-dreams Does Sunak really have an option? Export led growth can only happen if you have a market to export to....well Brexit has seen that off so all he has is housing. My guess is that he will use every tool at his disposal to keep pumping the housing market. So much for Brexiteers who voted for Brexit thinking they will get a crash. And when they do, there won't be the jobs to pay for their mortgages. You have to laugh at their idiocy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said: No doubt the usual suspects will be along shortly to deny this but it looks like Project Fear's predictions may turn out to have been a large tad too optimistic. NB The second graph is interesting. It shows that contrary to what most of the public believed even pre referendum migration from the EU was on a declining trajectory. This is not surprising to anyone who has seen the historic migration figures, the introduction of FoM allows citizens of poorer countries to migrate to richer ones and it then takes around 20yrs for a new equilibrium to be reached. You can see this more clearly from the useful breakdown available on Migration Watch UK. Brexit occurred just as we were coming back into overall equilibrium. Brexit's sponsors would have known this so clearly Brexit was never about stopping migration. Funny the latest OBR report barely mentions Brexit. It assumes that all long term GDP gap is attributable to the Covid. Brexit is just a short term trade disruption that will recede. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, slawek said: Funny the latest OBR report barely mentions Brexit. It assumes that all long term GDP gap is attributable to the Covid. Brexit is just a short term trade disruption that will recede. The OBR is effectively barred from mentioning Brexit. It was instructed to model a friendly Brexit with a comprehensive no tariff FTA (the loss of 6-7%GDP compared with its earlier forecasts is based on this) and explicitly barred from modelling other less advantageous outcomes. Amazingly, its 2020 budget forecast managed to foresee most of this "Covid" related loss, pre Covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I finally found one positive of brexit (tho it just seems to moving to implement Eu aml directive) https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2021/7/brexit-to-increase-anti-money-laundering-red-tape-agents-expect Brexit to increase anti-money laundering red tape, agents expect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said: The OBR is effectively barred from mentioning Brexit. It was instructed to model a friendly Brexit with a comprehensive no tariff FTA (the loss of 6-7%GDP compared with its earlier forecasts is based on this) and explicitly barred from modelling other less advantageous outcomes. Amazingly, its 2020 budget forecast managed to foresee most of this "Covid" related loss, pre Covid. That's a cracker. What will they blame it on after the pandemic...leaves on the track? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, IMHAL said: That's a cracker. What will they blame it on after the pandemic...leaves on the track? Covid scarring. https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2021/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, IMHAL said: That's a cracker. What will they blame it on after the pandemic...leaves on the track? Labour of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14stFlyer Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 40 minutes ago, IMHAL said: That's a cracker. What will they blame it on after the pandemic...leaves on the track? Wrong type of leave? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said: Wrong type of leave? Well played Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coypondboy Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 BREXIT has allowed us to take back control of our borders and just in time as Belarus will allow all refeugees in Turkey to travel through it to eastern EU countries so Lithuania is building a wall. Good job we live on an island expect a huge surge if this becomes similar to the million march to germany. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57754193 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 14 hours ago, yelims said: The euro has remained stable vs dollar in last few decades within 1% difference of where started Pound lost 20% against both and other major currencies these posts from British eurosceptics are hilarious, I need to keep slapping your face with facts and reality how does it feel to have a 5th of your wealth robbed in an indirect tax via devaluation Exactly why I transfered my GBP into BTC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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