Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Peter Hun]

 

Every day I am literally astounded at the low level of intelligence when it comes to Brexshiteers. That's not an insult, that's an observable fact. You'd imagine in this day and age that everyone would know that JIT originated from Japan. I guess we all have attained differing levels of academia. 

The people positive about Brexit are not the ones expected to make Brexit work.

Brexiteers expect industry to perform a miracle, especially difficult as the companies needed to export to the rest of the world will be bankrupt before they can break new markets (if they even exist).

This is why it will take 50 years to recover from Brexit, the industries don't even exist yet.

[Cocha]

 

We could moving into maufacturing unicorns instead. There is great demand. 52% of the population want one. It's made out of fairy dust and lies which is plentiful, and since they are not real...there is zero carbon footprint. Win win.

How about bottling and selling your remainer tears instead? They are plentiful and cheap. I'd certainly like some for the mantelpiece. 

[IMHAL]

 

How about bottling and selling your remainer tears instead? They are plentiful and cheap. I'd certainly like some for the mantelpiece. 

It's just sport dear friend. We have to find entertainment where we can whilst we are awaiting our Brexit bonus. Which I hear will probably be delayed until 2070 or longer.

Until then we can all dine on Brexit unicorn sovereignty and drink remainer tears. Cheers!

Edited December 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[Cocha]

 

It's just sport dear friend. We have to find entertainment where we can whilst we are awaiting our Brexit bonus. Which I hear will probably be delayed until 2070.

Until then we can all dine on Brexit unicorn sovereignty and drink remainer tears. Cheers!

Cheers and good health to you to Sir.

[IMHAL]

 

Cheers and good health to you to Sir.

Joking aside. The timescales now touted for Brexit to be considered a success seem rather far fetched ie 50 years. If Brexit turns into a systemic drag on the economy, I cannot see average Jo being able to survive and by extention our current trajectory will have to change. I expect we will see the UK moving gradually back into the sphere of the EU, especially so under a change of government.

What is your view on how Brexit will evolve if it sees strong structural headwinds? Do you think the pendulum has swung too far re sovereignt vs wealth? Do you think we will concede that Brexit has not worked and abandon it as a failed experiment if it runs into trouble or do you think we will continue to blame 'the other'? Have you considered what a plan B might look like?

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[Peter Hun]

Possible BoJo has bowed to the inevitable and conceded. Howler to get his deal?

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

Barnier says PM’s acceptance of need for ‘evolution clause’ as standards diverge has unlocked talks

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

How about bottling and selling your remainer tears instead? They are plentiful and cheap. I'd certainly like some for the mantelpiece. 

 

 

Typical remoaner. Can only see things in black and white.

 

 

Typical remoaner response. It has nothing to do with British exceptionalism nor an unwillingness to buy from johney foreigner (where are we going to get the raw materials from numbnuts?) 

 

 

Such childishness is probably more the reason Brexiteers (sorry, Brexshiteers 😘) just stop engaging on such threads, leaving you all to your echo chamber.

Talking about childishness, the above is the drivel you've posted on just one page of this thread. Congratulations. 

[dugsbody]

 

The hardest thing for the Europhile argument is most they know they're being played by the EU. They're forced to defend something they recognize as corrupt, self-serving and broken.

I was trawling through this thread (I must have some disorder or other) and found some gem posts.

I didn't really find any positive post from thehowler about the EU at all, which still makes me think if he did vote remain it was very, very grudgingly. Ideologically, you're a brexiter, right?

But I do have to chuckle at the above in light of what our own government has become. 

[dugsbody]

 

How about bottling and selling your remainer tears instead? They are plentiful and cheap. I'd certainly like some for the mantelpiece. 

Your facade is dropping, careful.

[winkie]

I feel sorry for Boris.....got the top job of his dreams and got landed with CoVid alongside Brexit......once done will he be done away with?

[IMHAL]

 

Possible BoJo has bowed to the inevitable and conceded. Howler to get his deal?

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

Barnier says PM’s acceptance of need for ‘evolution clause’ as standards diverge has unlocked talks

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/14/brexit-trade-deal-possible-within-days-after-johnson-concession-says-eu

Divergence is the corner stone of a 'real Brexit'. This will make the ERG very angry - a unilateral leash with which to yank the Brits back into line. I'd prefer no-deal to lance the festering Brexit boil tho.

[thehowler]

 

 

Odds on a deal, but if they don't agree the text by end of this week we might get a few weeks/month of no deal in Jan. An implementation, as you said, but with a deal agreed. MEPs not sounding happy about having to pass a FTA on the 28th Dec.

Predictions for 21 onwards...

January will be very bumpy either way, port chaos headlines, food prices up a few percent, more air freight.

Surge of consumer spending from spring will outweigh effect of rise in unemployment. The recovery from covid will mask a lot of the Brexit disruption, in my view. 2022/23 will be more of a test, I think.

I think we'll sign more FTAs through 2021 - many reliant on increased movement/visa rights - and we could see 500K from Hong Kong, by some estimates, by 2022.

I don't think we'll get a real sense of UK decline until 22 and thereafter - think it's likely the UK will begin to drop down the GDP tables steadily after that.

I think NI will thrive in its new duality and there'll be no good economic reason for them to seek reunification.

I think the SNP have peaked and if we come out with a deal it will cut into the independence vote. Currency issue and prospect of hard border with England will deter many Scots. Union is safe.

2022 and first half of 23 will be the big challenge for the Tories - and Starmer.

 

[erat_forte]

 

Joking aside. The timescales now touted for Brexit to be considered a success seem rather far fetched ie 50 years. If Brexit turns into a systemic drag on the economy, I cannot see average Jo being able to survive and by extention our current trajectory will have to change. I expect we will see the UK moving gradually back into the sphere of the EU, especially so under a change of government.

What is your view on how Brexit will evolve if it sees strong structural headwinds? Do you think the pendulum has swung too far re sovereignt vs wealth? Do you think we will concede that Brexit has not worked and abandon it as a failed experiment if it runs into trouble or do you think we will continue to blame 'the other'? Have you considered what a plan B might look like?

 

I think you mean, we will see the different nations formerly part of the UK, moving at different speeds back into the sphere of the EU, especially so since after their individual independences their different governments will have different priorities from each other.

[Peter Hun]

 

Divergence is the corner stone of a 'real Brexit'. This will make the ERG very angry - a unilateral leash with which to yank the Brits back into line. I'd prefer no-deal to lance the festering Brexit boil tho.

Diverge and tariffs will  be applied. Until then no tariffs.

No difference really, unless you are Loopy-Loo ERG.

[IMHAL]

 

I think you mean, we will see the different nations formerly part of the UK, moving at different speeds back into the sphere of the EU, especially so since after their individual independences their different governments will have different priorities from each other.

That is a strong possibility. The Scots especially will be very keen. It will be interesting to see NI prosper under their dual regime.... it will be a sore point of comparison for Brexiteers and will be used by the Scots to fast track their exit from the UK.

[Peter Hun]

 

I think the SNP have peaked and if we come out with a deal it will cut into the independence vote. Currency issue and prospect of hard border with England will deter many Scots. Union is safe.

There is no way a piss poor FTA will overcome the fact that we have lost  our service industry exports and financial services. Think again if you think this will save the Union.

NI are quids in.

[IMHAL]

 

There is no way a piss poor FTA will overcome the fact that we have lost  our service industry exports and financial services. Think again if you think this will save the Union.

NI are quids in.

+1 Especially NI. Their success will be used as a lightening rod to show up how badly the rest of the UK has faired.

[thehowler]

 

I was trawling through this thread (I must have some disorder or other) and found some gem posts.

I didn't really find any positive post from thehowler about the EU at all, which still makes me think if he did vote remain it was very, very grudgingly. Ideologically, you're a brexiter, right?

But I do have to chuckle at the above in light of what our own government has become. 

Yes, it was grudgingly, for economic reasons and ease of travel. But no, I didn't have the ideology of a Brexiter, as you perceive it, I think.

I was a big fan of FOM and am of immigration/diversity. As I argued quite recently, I believe it was poor governance on issues like improving public services that contributed to the leave win.

I've also said that I thought the EU needs to evolve and Brexit might be part of that evolution.

The vote was inevitable, the remain defeat wasn't, in my view. With the result so close, if remain had won I imagine Brit politicians would have done a lot more to help the 'left behind' than they have over the last four years.

But once the vote was lost I saw no point in opposing it - that's been a calamitous waste of time and effort for all of us, in my view.

[thehowler]

 

There is no way a piss poor FTA will overcome the fact that we have lost  our service industry exports and financial services. Think again if you think this will save the Union.

NI are quids in.

UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms.

Can's kicked for years with a FTA.

[dugsbody]

 

UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms.

Can's kicked for years with a FTA.

Depends on the FTA doesn't it. At the moment we're in a transition period so not much as changed. With a flimsy FTA, everything changes. And if we want a deeper FTA then we're conceding on ability to diverge while losing all many benefits, the seat at the table and we're still not resolving the eurosceptic problem.

The UK needs to find its place and I think a time in the wilderness is needed. 

 

[grasshopper]

 

UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms.

Can's kicked for years with a FTA.

It may have been FoM that won it for um. But it was divergence that is surely the prize that the ERG et al coverted the most. Can't quite fathom why the Tory right would want to be tied into a FTA with LPF agreement in the future. There has got to be some competitive advantage somewhere, otherwise what is this all about.

Edited December 14, 2020 by grasshopper

[Bruce Banner]

s

Boris Johnson’s trademark smirk is the most honest thing about him. When he says, for example, that we must now prepare for an “Australian-style solution”, a term that is arguably the grandest lie of the entire Brexit lexicon, and emits a little half-smile as he does so, your casual Johnson observer likes to comment that, even as he washes his country down the plughole, he still finds the whole thing to be a jolly little game.

It is the in-joke between the man and his interlocutor. It is to say, “Look, I know I’m lying, you know I’m lying, but this is how it must be. You know it and I know it.”

Without the smirk, Johnson would look to the world like a man still expecting to be taken at his word, despite his status as the greatest liar of the age. I don’t use those words lightly, and yes I absolutely do mean them. Trump was a liar, but he was also a fantasist, an unknowing liar, much of the time, who had long stopped being able to tell the difference between the truth and his own version of it. Johnson is no such thing. All his lies, and they are many, are full-throated and real. The smirk is a flash of self-awareness.

It’s not like he doesn’t know, for example, that he spent a long election campaign, less than a year ago, assuring literally dozens of television reporters, live on air, that there would definitely be a trade deal with the EU.

 

Boris Johnson’s smirk as he lies is the most honest thing about him | The Independent

is the most

[pig]

 

s

Boris Johnson’s trademark smirk is the most honest thing about him. When he says, for example, that we must now prepare for an “Australian-style solution”, a term that is arguably the grandest lie of the entire Brexit lexicon, and emits a little half-smile as he does so, your casual Johnson observer likes to comment that, even as he washes his country down the plughole, he still finds the whole thing to be a jolly little game.

It is the in-joke between the man and his interlocutor. It is to say, “Look, I know I’m lying, you know I’m lying, but this is how it must be. You know it and I know it.”

Without the smirk, Johnson would look to the world like a man still expecting to be taken at his word, despite his status as the greatest liar of the age. I don’t use those words lightly, and yes I absolutely do mean them. Trump was a liar, but he was also a fantasist, an unknowing liar, much of the time, who had long stopped being able to tell the difference between the truth and his own version of it. Johnson is no such thing. All his lies, and they are many, are full-throated and real. The smirk is a flash of self-awareness.

It’s not like he doesn’t know, for example, that he spent a long election campaign, less than a year ago, assuring literally dozens of television reporters, live on air, that there would definitely be a trade deal with the EU.

 

Boris Johnson’s smirk as he lies is the most honest thing about him | The Independent

is the most

Interview with Alok Sharma on R4 Today was pretty funny - long overdue mauling:

"Is there a physical tunnel connecting Australia with the EU ?..."

[pig]

 

UK govt will tell the Scots to wait and see how it goes under new terms.

Can's kicked for years with a FTA.

It'll be 'So long, and thanks for all the fish'

 

[kzb]

 

It’s not like he doesn’t know, for example, that he spent a long election campaign, less than a year ago, assuring literally dozens of television reporters, live on air, that there would definitely be a trade deal with the EU

You don't know there won't be one yet. 

Boris has to lie, for that reason we've gone over time and again.  We have to show we are ready to walk, and that is what he is doing.  Next month people could well be saying Boris played a blinder.

There is no level playing field in the EU, and most definitely not in workers conditions.  Many EU countries don't have a minimum wage, and of the ones that do, most are lower than the UK's.  UK working conditions are above the EU minimums.  Many UK employers have been tempted into Slovakia for lower production costs.  Any "divergence" tariffs should be applied by the UK, not the EU, to correct this imbalance.