Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[ZeroSumGame]

3 hours ago, the gardener said:

I think if they're looking for an inefficient and over-bureaucratic process which uneccessarily delays and inconveniences people going about their daily business then I suggest they look closer to home, we've got nothing on them, France and Germany in particular.

The coming removal of OUTWARD FoM will not just inconvenience, but will damage my daily business.

Too much to expect of the Westminster clowns to allow continued  EU citizenship for those that don't want to relinquish it?

[Errol]

6 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Too much to expect of the Westminster clowns to allow continued  EU citizenship for those that don't want to relinquish it?

Unlikely that the other Euro states would agree to that - effectively allowing people to enjoy membership rights without actually being members.

[knock out johnny]

30 minutes ago, Errol said:

BREXIT BILL PUBLISHED:

 

Wow

They're going for Hard Brexit

[CunningPlan]

19 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

Wow

They're going for Hard Brexit

Better than a soggy brexit (apparently)

[kzb]

21 minutes ago, Errol said:

Unlikely that the other Euro states would agree to that - effectively allowing people to enjoy membership rights without actually being members.

I thought they were going to allow people to buy EU citizenship?  What happened to that?

[kzb]

1 minute ago, CunningPlan said:

Better than a soggy brexit (apparently)

The bill says nothing about the hardness or otherwise of the Brexit.  All it does is authorise the PM to present Article 50, end of story.

[knock out johnny]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

The bill says nothing about the hardness or otherwise of the Brexit.  All it does is authorise the PM to present Article 50, end of story.

It's carte blanche to the Executive - see section 1(2)

[billybong]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

The truth is, the rich land owner subsidy is a bit of a red herring.  Yes it sticks in my craw that these very wealthy persons are getting subsidies.

However, no-one is going to farm if they lose money on it.

The CAP subsidy represents the majority of EU spend in the UK.  Although I'm not well appraised of this area, from what I hear it is not money well spent.

But if we want to keep farming as a productive industry in the UK, subsidies are inevitable.  In the EU, we are paying about 20% above world price for foodstuffs, plus there are these CAP payments.  And many farmers are still struggling.

We also have a need in this country to protect the natural environment and wildlife, something paid little heed in most countries.  This costs.

My highlight.

Isn't this one of the main bones of contention though.  Without all the subsidies, props and other supports then farms and suchlike would find the price level at which some farmer would make money on it without the subsidies etc.  In the meantime they just work to preserve the status quo. 

In the case of the dukes of this that and the other their wealth is likely to be so extensive (partly through "subsidies" and other preferences etc over centuries and decades) that the subsidies mentioned won't make much difference to them - except maybe as a form of bribe just to keep them onside, to keep them sweet and only in small part to avoid them risking their own money.

Like a banker's bailout but in miniature.

Edited January 26, 2017 by billybong

[olliegog]

12 minutes ago, kzb said:

The bill says nothing about the hardness or otherwise of the Brexit.  All it does is authorise the PM to present Article 50, end of story.

what else could it have said

Parliament have been promised a debate on the final deal (much of which depends on the EU negotiation) !

[kzb]

29 minutes ago, billybong said:

My highlight.

Isn't this one of the main bones of contention though.  Without all the subsidies, props and other supports then farms and suchlike would find the price level at which some farmer would make money on it without the subsidies etc.  In the meantime they just work to preserve the status quo. 

In the case of the dukes of this that and the other their wealth is likely to be so extensive (partly through "subsidies" and other preferences etc over centuries and decades) that the subsidies mentioned won't make much difference to them - except maybe as a form of bribe just to keep them onside, to keep them sweet and only in small part to avoid them risking their own money.

Like a banker's bailout but in miniature.

It is certainly seen as an issue by the free-market Brexiters that we are paying over the odds for foodstuffs.  That is because the EU is protectionist and imposes import tariffs at such a level to meet the internal market prices.  I believe the import tariff on dairy produce is currently 75%.

That means we are paying a lot more for milk and milk products than we need to.

However, you have to balance that against the fact that dairy farmers are already going out of business.  If we had a complete free market in dairy, it'd mean the virtual end of dairy farming in the uk.

Basically farming as a business would not be viable.  You might see this as a good thing, because it would  free up land for building and other uses. 

I don't though.

Edited January 26, 2017 by kzb

[cashinmattress]

4 hours ago, Riedquat said:

You go on about things the Tories have done (not that I've got much against the concept of austerity if the alternative is trying to borrow your way out of debt), then mention Brexit. Leaving the EU is for longer than this government, you're being very short-termist there. If you don't like the things the Conservatives do vote for someone else. That there isn't anyone else not utterly hopeless is a significant problem but that's hardly a sensible argument for running off to Big Brother instead of trying to fix it.

Who is 'big brother'?

GCHQ? TV Licencing? Xenu?

Short termist eh?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-us-trade-deal-donald-trump-theresa-may-nhs-privatised-food-standards-beef-chicken-a7545536.html

In a short 'term' we could have May assuage Trump's ego and sell off nearly a century of British health service for pennies to the yanks.

Plus have decades or more of checks and balances cleaved from Britons in a matter of months.

And Brexit hasn't happened yet, and may or may not be permanent, and nobody knows what the terms will be either way.

You got a crystal ball or something?

Like I keep saying: Know your enemy. (It's certainly not Brussels if you're British.)

[billybong]

50 minutes ago, kzb said:

It is certainly seen as an issue by the free-market Brexiters that we are paying over the odds for foodstuffs.  That is because the EU is protectionist and imposes import tariffs at such a level to meet the internal market prices.  I believe the import tariff on dairy produce is currently 75%.

That means we are paying a lot more for milk and milk products than we need to.

However, you have to balance that against the fact that dairy farmers are already going out of business.  If we had a complete free market in dairy, it'd mean the virtual end of dairy farming in the uk.

Basically farming as a business would not be viable.  You might see this as a good thing, because it would  free up land for building and other uses. I don't though.  

I don't see unviable farming as a good thing but the automatic subsidy mindset is one of the causes of crazy house prices and the poorly performing British economy - poorly performing except sometimes on an unreal statistically manipulated level and involving lots of debt.

Farming subsidies to already wealthy dukes which is effectively more socialism for the rich certainly isn't a good thing and even as things are it's difficult to see the farming justification in their particular case. 

Freeing up land for housing etc might be a positive where there's local overcrowding or other need (after all apparently lots of land isn't being farmed at least in part because of the subsidies) but for house prices it's credit levels and props that need to be sorted out and generally it wouldn't necessarily be at the expense of real farming especially if there was some proper joined up thinking on balancing the economy and Britain's resources by those supposed to be running the country..

Edited January 26, 2017 by billybong

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Divorce first, then trade deal, EU tells UK

Since Prime Minister Theresa May set out her Brexit goals last week, interest in Britain has focused on the future trade deals she may one day strike with the United States and other powers, as well as with the European Union. In Brussels and European capitals, that looks like putting the cart before the horse. "They're talking about their future relationships," said one EU official preparing for talks with London. "But first we need to get divorced. This is not going to be easy. Frankly, it's going to be very, very messy."

As with other divorces, the bitterest battle may be over money. And there is no certainty that any settlement can be agreed at all. "Britain’s payments to the EU budget and the issue of the EU quickly starting talks on an FTA (free trade agreement) with Britain will be linked," said a second senior EU official. "There cannot be discussions of a future relationship without first regulating the issue of an orderly separation."

EU negotiators reckon Britain has a weak hand to play. Yahoo

 

That's unexpected.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, knock out johnny said:

It's carte blanche to the Executive - see section 1(2)

All that is doing is clearing the decks.  It does not commit us to hard or soft.

Like I keep saying, you can't submit a Hard Article 50 or a Soft Article 50.  There is only one A50 and it gets decided afterwards if it is hard or soft.

[Riedquat]

45 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Like I keep saying: Know your enemy. (It's certainly not Brussels if you're British.)

I know my enemies. I'm just not naive enough to think that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[Riedquat]

45 minutes ago, billybong said:

I don't see unviable farming as a good thing but the automatic subsidy mindset is one of the causes of crazy house prices and the poorly performing British economy - poorly performing except sometimes on an unreal statistically manipulated level and involving lots of debt.

Unviable farming is an issue but the issue is that it shouldn't be unviable, importing food that we can grow ourselves is plain daft, and if the economic situation dictates that that's what happens then that's where the problem lies. Of course we're far too badly overpopulated to be able to get by without importing some food. Supermarkets seem to make enough money from food though...

[kzb]

20 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Unviable farming is an issue but the issue is that it shouldn't be unviable, importing food that we can grow ourselves is plain daft, and if the economic situation dictates that that's what happens then that's where the problem lies. Of course we're far too badly overpopulated to be able to get by without importing some food. Supermarkets seem to make enough money from food though...

Well you could say that importing manufactured goods that we could make for ourselves is plain daft.

The current situation is protectionism for the agribusiness but globalism for manufacturing....

I've raised the point before about the markup along the chain, from world prices of basic foods to the price you pay in the supermarket.  Apparently there are all kinds of reasons for that, but it seems enormous to me.

[Riedquat]

9 minutes ago, kzb said:

Well you could say that importing manufactured goods that we could make for ourselves is plain daft.

The current situation is protectionism for the agribusiness but globalism for manufacturing....

I've raised the point before about the markup along the chain, from world prices of basic foods to the price you pay in the supermarket.  Apparently there are all kinds of reasons for that, but it seems enormous to me.

I would say importing manufactured goods that we could make ourselves is daft, at least when it's the result of economic and social issues getting twisted away from the practical reality. Protectionism can protect the poor quality and globalisation increases the rate of the race to the bottom, both have their downsides but I lean more towards the former. Open up just to import the stuff you can't make, as long as you've got something to offer in return that someone else wants, and if you haven't, well, can't really expect to get anything.

[ZeroSumGame]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

I thought they were going to allow people to buy EU citizenship?  What happened to that?

Nothing yet. It's on Guy Verhofstadt's list when negotiations start.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Government brushes off calls to release Brexit White Paper within the week

Brexit secretary David Davis has brushed off calls for the Government to publish its formal Brexit plan within the week. At a First Reading of the Brexit bill at the House of Commons, ministers had a tense discussion about how Brexit would affect EU nationals’ residency rights, farming and agriculture, single market access, and more. Davis fielded questions on all of these issues from across the House – but, in particular, on the White Paper Theresa May has promised. Asked when the Paper would be published, Davis simply repeated May’s assurance that it would come ‘in due course’.

Stephen Gethins, SNP MP for North East Fife, then said: ‘Mr Speaker, you will be aware of how helpful the House of Commons website is. It says: “White Papers are policy documents produced by the Government that set out their proposals for future legislation.” ‘Given that Article 50 is a significant piece of legislation, and this House deserves to scrutinise it, will the Secretary of State commit to publishing the White Paper before the Committee stage?’ metro

 

Further delays.

[kzb]

Fillon under investigation

Penelope Fillon collected a public salary totaling about 500,000 euros ($537,000) over multiple years without actually doing any work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-26/french-frontrunner-rocked-by-probe-offering-opening-to-rivals

 ....Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the euro, edged into the lead with about 26 percent support compared with about 25 percent for Fillon in this month’s Ipsos poll

 

[long time lurking]

9 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Torys' brought you deregulation, austerity, denationalised & sold off our assets, and who are now seeking to privatise the NHS and other public services will certainly look after their own rich pals... on your expense account.

 

The EU gave them the same amount most would have come from EU sub`s ...yes it`s theft in my eyes 

How do you propose we as in the electorate  stop it ..in or out of the EU ? why have there been nothing done about it over the last 20+ years when the EU was funding them ?

Easy to point out the problems how do we fix them .

[long time lurking]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

Fillon under investigation

Penelope Fillon collected a public salary totaling about 500,000 euros ($537,000) over multiple years without actually doing any work.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-26/french-frontrunner-rocked-by-probe-offering-opening-to-rivals

 ....Le Pen, who wants to take France out of the euro, edged into the lead with about 26 percent support compared with about 25 percent for Fillon in this month’s Ipsos poll

 

My double is looking better by the day Wilders /Le Pen 

Edited January 26, 2017 by long time lurking

[ccc]

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-us-trade-deal-could-be-struck-within-90-days-says-nigel-farage-10735340

Well well well. 

This story is through Farage - but he's clearly got the ear of Trump so I think it's fair to say it's more than likely based on more than just conjecture.

"Britain could strike a trade deal with the United States within 90 days, the Trump administration has told Nigel Farage."

So a very fast deal. If this happens it certainly won't be very complex if done in that time period. In fact some may even describe it as "Simple"....

Also rather interesting.

"The UK is barred from negotiating trade deals until it has quit the EU.

However, the Trump administration has signalled to Mr Farage that talks could start shortly, before Britain has left the bloc."

So it looks like Trump may be happy to tell the EU where to go and start our trade negotiations before we are "Allowed to" by the EU....

May is meeting Trump today and he clearly stated in his conference that he will be missing his main team today so would be doing trade negotiations himself.

"They [UK] want to talk trade"

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/26/news/donald-trump-theresa-may-trade-negotiation/

So it also appears the UK may be heading off to undertake trade deals before we are "Allowed to". Can the EU really define what would be "official" trade deal talks or not ? Would be very difficult I imagine. If we come out with an agreed deal the day after Brexit - what exactly could they do ? 

Time will tell of course. But it appears that the CCC plan could be being followed by the book.

Oh the seethe if this happens on this thread will be something to behold. 

[slawek]