Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Sheeple Splinter]

8 hours ago, Futuroid said:

We covered this up thread.

The most complex part of the electric Mini will be the drivetrain - which is to be made in Germany. The Cowley plant will basically continue to assemble parts made elsewhere but instead of dropping in a diesel or petrol engine, they will now drop in the electric gubbins. With minimal investment, BMW have forced the UK government to think very carefully about tariffs (as this will make the UK mini plant unviable).

At the same time, BMW are reading a plant in Belgium so it can take over the electric mini production if need be.

Sensible lot those Germans*

Yes, we did, along with the two other BMW factories in the UK. Are you still disappointed at their decision to invest in the UK?

Did you mean the Netherlands? Hybrid Mini already produced there?

* Definitely

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Something as complex as "America" or "Europe" is rarely all good or bad, but somewhere inbetween.

UK actually sits between the US and Europe in many ways and we have the opportunity to learn from both sides if we wish to take the opportunity.

I used to think this Slug about the USA. I was in fact its greatest fan for a while. But ...

Now I think the only thing we can learn is to not follow suit. There is an increasing societal breakdown in the States. The elites have cornered everything. The increase in homelessness is astounding. The opioid crisis is ruining swathes of peoples' lives. The middle class is disappearing. The money supply is a mirage. The privatized prison system is a huge racket which contravenes human rehabilitation. The tech companies are in league with government. The 'happiness factor' is falling through the floor.

Its decline is rapid. Like here, there is nobody to save it.

Edited September 17, 2017 by jonb2

[Futuroid]

1 minute ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Did you mean the Netherlands? Hybrid Mini already produced there?

Quite possibly - the whole Benelux thing confuses me.

[Sheeple Splinter]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

imaginary?  I had a look through the composition of the "bill", when the FT published its claim that it could 100bn. 

It assumed that we would leave the EU in march 2019, we won't except to go into a transition period which is just a rebranded continuing membership. Once you factor that in all the costs associated with the annual membership costs and our funding of the current budget disappear. 

This gets you down to about 30bn, of this items such our contribution to the pensions bill, 6-12bn depending on how you account for the liability, should be uncontroversial. Other items such as whether we need to pay the full cost of transferring EU institutions away from the UK will depend on whether we are contractually committed to do this if not we can give the EU the choice of leaving them in the UK or moving them at their cost. If as I hear we did sign up to pay the full relocation costs, then we have to pay. 

The FT also assumed we would be given no refund in respect of the EU's financial assets, I hear the EU are going to concede that we will get a refund/offset in respect of at least a portion of these. 

Take all of these into account, and the likely outcome is the UK will face around 20bn of additional unavoidable costs to exit the EU; plus another 3 years of membership costs to cover the transition period. Although we may concede more in order to secure a favourable ongoing agreement and continuing membership of various EU programs 

Dithering rather than negotiating?  Of course, how can we negotiate when the government cannot even agree what they want to get out of the negotiations.   

Imaginary - Sorry, I meant that there will be an exit bill and thanks for explaining your take on the costings etc. 

Returning to the EU's paper, I can't see any mention of a refund of EU financial, or other, assets. There again, if this was the paper which garnered the line by line quote then I'm not surprised that it was challenged by the UK. 

Dithering - Well, the nothing is agreed until everything is agreed strategy is a Gordian Knot... sadly, it appears that tying shoelaces might be a knot too far for some of the Brexit chiefs.

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Something as complex as "America" or "Europe" is rarely all good or bad, but somewhere inbetween.

UK actually sits between the US and Europe in many ways and we have the opportunity to learn from both sides if we wish to take the opportunity.

That's the chance we've given us. The fear that it'll end up offering the worst of both worlds is a valid one, one that shouldn't be discussed with accusations about scaremongering or paranoia either, especially considering our own useless crop of politicians, but on the other hand if you feel that the only choice with staying is with the rate of change in that direction, here is a chance, albeit a very slim one, of something else.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I used to think this Slug about the USA. I was in fact its greatest fan for a while. But ...

Things change, increasingly quickly. Maybe it's better to concentrate on making our politicians responsible for the part they play.

Edited September 17, 2017 by Guest
granma, innit

[pig]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

That's the chance we've given us. The fear that it'll end up offering the worst of both worlds is a valid one, one that shouldn't be discussed with accusations about scaremongering or paranoia either, especially considering our own useless crop of politicians, but on the other hand if you feel that the only choice with staying is with the rate of change in that direction, here is a chance, albeit a very slim one, of something else.

Well, what has your 'average' hard right eurosceptic Tory MP always wanted for the UK ?

[ZeroSumGame]

Bozo stirs it up -weakening Theresa May.

Quote

“It puts Theresa May in an impossible position, I can’t understand why she hasn’t fired him,” Vince Cable, leader of the opposition Liberal Democrats, said on the BBC. “He has a completely and utterly different view of what Brexit means from the rest of the cabinet,” he said, adding that the “civil war” in May’s government will hamper talks with the EU.

Of course the clown has no answers to the difficult problems Brexit throws up......

Quote

Johnson’s article didn’t offer solutions to the main sticking points in the Brexit negotiations, namely how to deal with citizens’ rights, Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland, and the financial settlement. Officials in the EU say failure to break the current deadlock on those topics mean they are unlikely to back the start of trade talks next month as once hoped. They are looking to May’s speech to provide some clarity, especially on money.

Bloomberg

#TakeBackControl  ....from the prime minister.   #Shambles.

[Thorn]

Still no sign of Theresa sending the diggers in to strengthen the border here in Ireland.

Not. A. Single. One.

Just saying.

[london_thirtythree]

6 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I used to think this Slug about the USA. I was in fact its greatest fan for a while. But ...

Now I think the only thing we can learn is to not follow suit. There is an increasing societal breakdown in the States. The elites have cornered everything. The increase in homelessness is astounding. The opioid crisis is ruining swathes of peoples' lives. The middle class is disappearing. The money supply is a mirage. The privatized prison system is a huge racket which contravenes human rehabilitation. The tech companies are in league with government. The 'happiness factor' is falling through the floor.

Its decline is rapid. Like here, there is nobody to save it.

I'd second that one - given that a good chunk of our culture and tv comes from the states, think quite positively of the place.

But the level of division and identity politics that is emanating from the place at the moment hints at something pretty broken; half of the US seems to be retreating to their 'blame X, Y or Z' safe place as way of explaining some deeper level of unhappiness. (presumably economic?)

Might all be internet / politic fluff that is not true to life for the average American, but otherwise does not seem a healthy place at the minute.

Of course we have many similar things here, but doesn't seem quite as bad.

Solve the economics and save the world maybe - but seems like solving the economics is too big a challenge, and maybe too many vested interests who think everything is great until its too late.

Don't know enough to know if Europe is better, but would agree that copying the US is not likely to solve our problems.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Top architect Lord Foster joins Brexit debate by calling for country to ‘look outwards, not inwards’, adding London is ‘under threat’ due to leave vote

Foster, who founded his London-based Foster + Partners practice 50 years ago, said in his chairman’s statement to the latest set of company accounts that there were ‘serious concerns that will affect our future and that of others’. He added: ‘We thrive and contribute to the wealth of London by virtue of our ability to attract the best graduates from beyond our island nation. That is a strength and should be recognised as such. 

'London, wonderfully, is a melting pot for international expertise and needs to maintain that edge. It is already under threat. 'Politics and morality aside, we owe it to future generations to look outwards, not inwards and to positively encourage the influx of talent.’

The firm has been behind projects as diverse as London’s City Hall, the Reichstag redevelopment in Berlin, Hong Kong airport and Apple’s Californian campus. Daily Mail

 

 

[HairyOb1]

19 hours ago, dryrot said:

I'm sorry you have to use derogatory terms. Evidence you have lost the argument?

Please can you direct me to the quote I have emphasised in bold? I can't find anything with a simple search and I don't remember any such recent statements, from Dieter Zetsche (Chairman of Daimler-Benz)?

No?  I think you all are lunatics.  I genuinely do - I have heard possibly one or two cohesive, clear arguments from Brexiteers and whilst all of the statements from all of the experts warning about the consequences of leaving are happening, coming true, you're more dismissive of them now then when they called this nonsense out.

Couple that to the fact all of our bluffs, all our bluster is being called out by the EU and slowly, but by bit, whatever was the governments Plan A was, is falling apart, but more worryingly, the more it unravels, the more apparent the fact that we don't have a Plan B, or C or anything.

Armed with this knowledge, I would assume anyone but a lunatic would back slowly away from the obvious precipice that we're leaning over.

It wasn't Dieter, apologies, it was the head of the German Automotive industry, a Mattius Wissmann, who represents them all...

 

Quote

 

"Britain is very important for us, but the EU27 is even more important for us, as a market and as a political concept...
So we do the utmost to support anyone who keeps Britain as close as possible to the EU.

"But if you ask me for priorities: keeping the EU27 together is even more important than to keep Britain nearby, so let the British government be convinced that they have to build a bridge."
He said that a cliff-edge Brexit would "change everything", including German industrial investment in the UK.

"If we will fall down the cliff edge, it would be very critical for all sides, also damage part of our concepts in Britain and elsewhere, but to be clear, the higher price would be paid by the British."

 

 

Edited September 18, 2017 by HairyOb1

[rollover]

22 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

No?  I think you all are lunatics.  I genuinely do - I have heard possibly one or two cohesive, clear arguments from Brexiteers and whilst all of the statements from all of the experts warning about the consequences of leaving are happening, coming true, you're more dismissive of them now then when they called this nonsense out.

Couple that to the fact all of our bluffs, all our bluster is being called out by the EU and slowly, but by bit, whatever was the governments Plan A was, is falling apart, but more worryingly, the more it unravels, the more apparent the fact that we don't have a Plan B, or C or anything.

Armed with this knowledge, I would assume anyone but a lunatic would back slowly away from the obvious precipice that we're leaning over.

It wasn't Dieter, apologies, it was the head of the German Automotive industry, a Mattius Wissmann, who represents them all...

 

 

So far it is Brexit pre-effect. Brexit is still far far away.

[dryrot]

17 hours ago, Futuroid said:

I see Boris "Bus Lies" Johnson has been caught in his lie again.

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-statistics-authority-boss-disappointed-at-boris-johnsons-350m-nhs-claim-11040516

More Remainer garbage - and its frightening that the head of the Stats office does not look at original data, rather than 3rd hand reporting!

Dear Sir David

I must say that I was surprised and disappointed by your letter of today, since it was based on what appeared to be a wilful distortion of the text of my article.

When we spoke you conceded that you were more concerned by the headline and the BBC coverage, though you accepted that I was not responsible for those. I suggest if the BBC coverage offends you that you write to the BBC.

You say that I claim that there would be £350 million that "might be available for extra public spending" when we leave the EU.

This is a complete misrepresentation of what I said and I would like you to withdraw it. I in fact said : "once we have settled our accounts we will take back control of roughly £350m per week. It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS. "

That is very different from claiming that there would be an extra £350m available for public spending and I am amazed that you should impute such a statement to me.

You claim in your defence that we would not really be taking back control of that sum, because it includes the rebate and other EU spending in this country. But, as you accept, these sums - amounting to about half the £350 million - are spent at the discretion of the EU. We do not control them.

To give you an example: when I was Mayor of London I thought it would be a good idea if we persuaded the Commission to spend £8m on the Emirates cable car. We succeeded, and the Commissioner concerned was so delighted with the results that he said he would like to fund some more cable cars in London. I was delighted, too, and was glad to have steered some of our EU contributions back to this country. But the decision was his. Control was in the hands of the Commission, not the UK. Or do you suggest otherwise ?

As for the balance of the £350 million, it of course disappears around the rest of the EU, and is spent as the EU sees fit in other countries. Once we leave the EU we will take back control of all such UK-funded spending, and, although of course I have no doubt that we will continue to spend significantly on UK priorities such as agriculture and research, that spending will be done under UK control.

As for the rebate - whose value you did not know - it only forms part of the EU’s financing arrangements with the agreement of all other EU Member States. We do not control it ourselves.

What is beyond doubt is that, upon withdrawal, we will have complete discretion over the £350m per week and that huge sums will indeed will be available for public spending on priorities such as the NHS. I believe that would be a fine thing.

If you had any concerns about my article, it would of course have been open to you to address the points with me in private rather than in this way in a public letter. As it is, if you seriously disagree with any of the above, I look forward to hearing your reasoning.

Boris Johnson
Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs

[HairyOb1]

...all the time neglecting to add we get a rebate so the actual amount of £278m.

He's wilfully distorting the truth through an opaque obfuscation, intimating we'll have full control of £350m where the truth is we will not, as there was never a figure of £350m as the rebate is taken out of any amount before we pay anything - We've never 'paid' £350m, so we've always been in control of any money over and above £278m.

This is the horseshit the leave camp have always used, as it's effective, given (looking at demographics) most folk who voted for leave aren't that bright; they'll miss the nuance, and concentrate on the headline figures, which is where Boris Johnson has got it wrong again.  Even his 'friends' have walked away from his latest gaff. 

It's BoJo feeling sorry for himself not being the choice of leader anymore and trying to give himself relevance, where there truth is, he's got none.

As an aside, have a look at his twitter feed - It is almost all about things he's done, doing, will do - It's not about the country and her relationships (the remit of the FO), it's all about him.

[dryrot]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

No?  I think you all are lunatics.  I genuinely do - I have heard possibly one or two cohesive, clear arguments from Brexiteers and whilst all of the statements from all of the experts warning about the consequences of leaving are happening, coming true, you're more dismissive of them now then when they called this nonsense out.

Couple that to the fact all of our bluffs, all our bluster is being called out by the EU and slowly, but by bit, whatever was the governments Plan A was, is falling apart, but more worryingly, the more it unravels, the more apparent the fact that we don't have a Plan B, or C or anything.

Armed with this knowledge, I would assume anyone but a lunatic would back slowly away from the obvious precipice that we're leaning over.

It wasn't Dieter, apologies, it was the head of the German Automotive industry, a Mattius Wissmann, who represents them all...

Thanks for the update. I wouldnt call you lunatics, even though you seem wedded to the leaking EU rustbucket - and wanting to pay £350m per week for the privilege. But i wonder at the mentality of some Remainers - they ignore  abandonment of democracy, the Euro catastrophe, the hopeless response to the migrant crisis, the recent votes in Holland and France, the upcoming votes in Catalonia and Italy, the lack of growth, the restrictions on liberty - none of this even registers with you (though I suggest it might matter more to your children).

Herr Wissmann (source BBC) ""We need, relatively soon, a clear answer... Will we have tariff and non-tariff barriers between Britain on the one hand and the European Union? "That means a long period of uncertainties will block future investments in Britain, and that makes me really concerned. "Therefore I hope that the British government, at a certain crossroads within the next 12 months, decides to go for the single market and not for any other regime which would need years to discuss and negotiate."

That depends on the EU. we are happy with free trade, or under WTO rules. We are happy with the current arrangement, and of course will respect EU rules when exporting to the single market - as we respect the laws of all other markets to which we export. I see no reason to panic. 

"Germany also exports more vehicles to the UK than any other country." from the same article. And I would hope Herr Wissman mentions that to Frau Merkel. We want to carry on trading, we just dont want to be ruled - and pay to - Brussels. (Sheesh! Is it that hard?)

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, dryrot said:

Thanks for the update. I wouldnt call you lunatics, even though you seem wedded to the leaking EU rustbucket - and wanting to pay £350m per week for the privilege (ah so you've fallen for that nonsense haven't you). But i wonder at the mentality of some Remainers - they ignore  abandonment of democracy, the Euro catastrophe (now more valuable than Sterling and at an al time high vs. the dollar), the hopeless response to the migrant crisis, the recent votes in Holland and France (where the right wing lost votes and even Le Pen admitted the party needs to distance itself from the right wing anti immigrant rhetoric), the upcoming votes in Catalonia (illegal vote and one about Spain, not the EU) and Italy (they vote every 15 minutes, not worried about that at all), the lack of growth (at an all time high) the restrictions on liberty (really?) - none of this even registers with you (though I suggest it might matter more to your children) - My children will see that we get back into the EU sooner rather than later,if we even do leave in any meaningful way.

Herr Wissmann (source BBC) ""We need, relatively soon, a clear answer... Will we have tariff and non-tariff barriers between Britain on the one hand and the European Union? "That means a long period of uncertainties will block future investments in Britain, and that makes me really concerned. "Therefore I hope that the British government, at a certain crossroads within the next 12 months, decides to go for the single market and not for any other regime which would need years to discuss and negotiate."

That depends on the EU. we are happy with free trade, or under WTO rules. We are happy with the current arrangement, and of course will respect EU rules when exporting to the single market - as we respect the laws of all other markets to which we export. I see no reason to panic - you missed the last part didn't you.  The money shot: the higher price would be paid by the British."

"Germany also exports more vehicles to the UK than any other country." from the same article. And I would hope Herr Wissman mentions that to Frau Merkel. We want to carry on trading, we just dont want to be ruled - and pay to - Brussels. (Sheesh! Is it that hard?) - Again, you missed the money shot: the higher price would be paid by the British."

All of that is very good, if it wasn't mostly rubbish.

[Errol]

Good to see Hungary taking action:

 

Hungary Builds A Wall, Cuts Illegal Immigration By Over 99%

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/hungary-builds-wall-cuts-illegal-immigration-over-99

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

given (looking at demographics) most folk who voted for leave aren't that bright

Speaking of horeshit figures, please would you provide a link to these demographics, so that others can look along with you - and also provide a brief explanation of the methodology you have used to extrapolate from these demographics that the majority of the 17,410,742 people who voted leave have - apparently - a below average IQ?

[Noallegiance]

11 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Bozo stirs it up -weakening Theresa May.

Of course the clown has no answers to the difficult problems Brexit throws up......

Bloomberg

#TakeBackControl  ....from the prime minister.   #Shambles.

I heard an interesting interview the other day stating that we have no obligation to pay anything upon leaving the EU, we have no obligation or desire for a hard border with Ireland and if the EU do then let them put it up.

So that would only leave citizens rights to sort out.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, highYield said:

Speaking of horeshit figures, please would you provide a link to these demographics, so that others can look along with you - and also provide a brief explanation of the methodology you have used to extrapolate from these demographics that the majority of the 17,410,742 people who voted leave have - apparently - a below average IQ?

No. You have it wrong. Pig sh1t viscosity ain't got nuffink on us Brexit dix, innit.

[kzb]

On ‎16‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 5:41 PM, HairyOb1 said:

Come on, you're better than that.

It's not a problem for Germany, au contraire, as people who buy these £50-100k cars, can handle another £5-10k.  It will not impact them at all; we're not talking a Dacia Duster here - People who buy these cars are fairly wealthy, can afford a 10% subsidy.  The German car industry will not suffer a great deal - People who buy these cars, will continue buying these cars.  I like a Volvo, and I will continue buying them, regardless of a tariff.

 

I believe most of them are on PCP deals.  There's a whole thread on that plus there was a Panorama expose of it.

That's not to say it won't continue if prices go up 10-20%, but I think its days are numbered.

[HairyOb1]

5 minutes ago, highYield said:

Speaking of horeshit figures, please would you provide a link to these demographics, so that others can look along with you - and also provide a brief explanation of the methodology you have used to extrapolate from these demographics that the majority of the 17,410,742 people who voted leave have - apparently - a below average IQ?

Googles your friend HighYield.  It was an interesting document, of which this is but one nice rich snippet:

15 of the 20 ‘least educated’ areas voted to leave while all of the 20 ‘most highly educated’ areas voted to remain.

Another, just for shits and giggles:

We found that support for Brexit was strongest in areas where a large percentage of the population did not have any qualifications

So, not being your whipping boy, go and do some research yourself.  I did, it was illuminating..

Edited September 18, 2017 by HairyOb1

[Guest]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

Googles your friend HighYield.  It was an interesting document, of which this is but one nice rich snippet:

15 of the 20 ‘least educated’ areas voted to leave while all of the 20 ‘most highly educated’ areas voted to remain.

So, not being your whipping boy, go and do some research yourself.  I did, it was illuminating..

What's the link between education and intelligence, i.e. being bright?

[HairyOb1]

Just now, highYield said:

What's the link between education and intelligence, i.e. being bright?

Of course, there isn't one...

OK, how about 71% of manual workers voted to leave.

75% of folk with no qualifications voted to leave.

Unemployed 60%