Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[ZeroSumGame]

1 hour ago, macca13 said:

Catalonia indipendance referendum 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/854715/Catalan-independence-referendum-Catalonia-Spain-Antonio-Tajani-European-Union/amp

Austria far right and centre right coalition most likely outcome

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/09/05/the-right-is-set-to-be-the-big-winner-in-austrias-upcoming-general-election/

Germany merkle looks set for a win but a possible coalition on the cards. 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1BQ14X

Italy far right want to bring back currency.. 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/853143/Italy-eurozone-warning-opposition-parties-parallel-currency-euro

all this whilst North Korea want to nuke us all..

and people worry about Brexit.. ?

All the above are external factors, except BREXIT  which is an entirely local self-inflicted own goal. As if the world was not a difficult enough place, your own government had to create its own train crash to add to the general chaos. Hope that clears up the confusion for you.  #OneYearOldBrexitShambles.    #Clueless  

[Lambie]

Boris has unleashed the circular firing squad just in time for conference.

Whoever wins, we all lose.

[macca13]

4 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

All the above are external factors, except BREXIT  which is an entirely local self-inflicted own goal. As if the world was not a difficult enough place, your own government had to create its own train crash to add to the general chaos. Hope that clears up the confusion for you.  #OneYearOldBrexitShambles.    #Clueless  

The countries going down, nothing to do with Brexit.. Europe is going down, everything to do with the EU. Migrant crisis, forced quotas , Euro wrecking economies.. 

before we bailed the banks it was $2 to £1 or 56p to €1.. the elites have destroyed the £ not Brexit..

if the elites want to stop Brexit then that proves it's a good thing.. anything they want from mass immigration to wars, to arms sales to the third world.. everything is motivated by greed.. so if they want it stopped it must be a good thing.. 

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

On 13/09/2017 at 11:53 PM, Dave Beans said:

@Sheeple Splinter

 

Thanks. From The Guardian:

Quote

...I don’t write this as an embittered “remoaner”. I used to be a hard Brexiteer – I even worked on comunications close to the heart of Vote Leave. But I’ve now converted to a soft Brexit position. My version of our departure from the European Union is largely based around the Flexcit pamphlet, comfortably the most useful and comprehensively researched body of work on Brexit yet produced. As a result I fall into what appears to be a niche category of leave campaigner: I try to be as pragmatic as possible about our departure...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/14/vote-leave-britain-single-market-tories-labour-brexit

Hard to believe that the BBC have only just stumbled across Flexcit...

[Lambie]

14 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Hard to believe that the BBC have only just stumbled across Flexcit...

As Dr North would no doubt wryly observe, now it has come from someone with 'prestige' they have suddenly discovered it.

[Sheeple Splinter]

On 14/09/2017 at 0:41 AM, Confusion of VIs said:

1. You would think not but .......

2. Could this be behind the apparent rumor that May is going to announce she is giving notice on our membership of the EEA next week. An attempt to remove the EEA ball before Labour can play it. However, I tried today but have not been able to find anyone who has any knowledge of what is behind this this rumor and even if its true, given the Supreme Courts pretty clear direction that Parliament must approve any removal of existing rights, can she be sure she would win the necessary vote.     

1. ... the new Democrat Party sprints to intercept the loose ball...

2. Yes, I imagine Gina has already briefed her legal team in the event of party political blunders...

3. Any whispers of a 'deep blue caucus' on your network? I mean deeper than L. I. 

[Sheeple Splinter]

On 14/09/2017 at 0:57 PM, kzb said:

He was on Newsnight last night.  I'm not sure if the description Brexit supporting is really true,  I think he is simply less worried by it than most Remainers.

Anyhow, his point was Brexit could be a success, but he is disappointed by our negotiating strategy.  We need a fall-back position, a Plan B negotiating team who are dealing with the WTO option.  That was his big point, and it is probably a good one.

This is another reptile who has suddenly developed intelligence only after he left his post.

Smoke and mirrors; article dated Jan '17:

Quote

Ensuring a smooth transition in the WTO as we leave the EU

Last week the British Prime Minister Theresa May set out her plan for Britain’s orderly departure from the European Union. Britain’s transition in the WTO is an important and necessary part of this process. Ensuring that goes smoothly is one of the over-riding priorities of the Mission I lead in Geneva.

British ministers in fact took the decision to begin our WTO transition late last autumn. They concluded that establishing the UK’s independent position in the WTO would not prejudge what kind of relationship the UK and the EU would have in future. Nor would it prejudge when the UK would leave the EU. The timing of the transition in the WTO would be linked to whatever the UK and the EU agreed in the Article 50 negotiations. This WTO process was not an alternative to a negotiated exit from the EU, as some claimed. On the contrary, it was a necessary complement to it...

https://blogs.fco.gov.uk/julianbraithwaite/2017/01/23/ensuring-a-smooth-transition-in-the-wto-as-we-leave-the-eu/

...and this is Azevedo in Oct '16:

Quote

...

"I told (Trade Secretary Liam Fox) that I myself and the WTO secretariat will be available to make the transition as smooth as possible.

"Then we have been in touch, not every day, but clearly there will be a very dynamic relationship in the future."

Asked whether he felt the UK had a comprehensive plan, he said: "I think there is a major strategy.

"Since the vote there have been a lot of bright people spending 24 hours a day thinking about this and coming up with alternatives and a game plan."

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-will-not-cause-uk-trade-disruption-wto-boss-10632803

[HairyOb1]

7 hours ago, kzb said:

Don't be so negative !  For one thing it's us they want the money off.  Currently they are looking at a black hole in the budget with no other nation willing to pay one cent more.

We have millions of EEs, try and find jobs for all them.

£70 billion or whatever negative trade balance....security....defence....

We will never be in a position to leave better off than we were before.  You must accept that before you continue to bluster.

2 hours ago, Lambie said:

Boris has unleashed the circular firing squad just in time for conference.

Whoever wins, we all lose.

Again, going to be sidelined once he understands we'll never be in a better position in than out.  He's a buffoon.  This ends his career really..

39 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Thanks. From The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/14/vote-leave-britain-single-market-tories-labour-brexit

Hard to believe that the BBC have only just stumbled across Flexcit...

ah, false news - If you don't like it that is

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

On 15/09/2017 at 1:10 AM, Confusion of VIs said:

What gamesmanship? As far as I can see we still don't know what and without this cannot formulate any plan for getting it, so instead are wasting time arguing about an imaginary exit bill. 

Meanwhile the EU have a plan, move the UK to third country status and then agree a transition and follow on trade deal on their terms. All our dithering is doing is wasting time removing and any slim possibility we had of agreeing any sort of bespoke deal for the UK.  

FT's article, Google    "Merkel’s message to Theresa May: Brexit means Brexit" sums it up pretty well.

If the EU is going to punish us it will be by giving us what we asked for - Brexit 

imaginary? 

Dithering rather than negotiating?

What if the EU's methodology for calculating the bill is flawed?

Quote

...

Why do we face a divorce bill for leaving the EU?

The EU is an organisation with assets and liabilities.The EU has been clear that when the UK leaves, it is expected to pay off its share of the liabilities: this is referred to as the Brexit 'divorce bill' or exit bill. There have been no official estimates published of the size of the bill. In the opening negotiations both sides will seek to agree on the methodology for calculating the bill, and the actual figure will be finalised at the end of negotiations. The Commission has now published its opening methodology, although as expected this does not give a figure for the bill's size. ..

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

EU position paper:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/financial-settlement-essential-principles-draft-position-paper_en.pdf

[HairyOb1]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

imaginary? 

Dithering rather than negotiating?

What if the EU's methodology for calculating the bill is flawed?

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill

EU position paper:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/financial-settlement-essential-principles-draft-position-paper_en.pdf

Happy days,  I hope they fiscally waterboard us

[Peter Hun]

16 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Overall it will make us a somewhat poorer country and will require a further round of economic belt tightening that won't be popular in a country already tired of "austerity". 

'Brexit means Brexit' and the 'Voice of the People Has Spoken', will cover any complaints about pay cuts, hospitals and factories closing, quite nicely.

[Futuroid]

Dunno if you guys saw this... Empire 2.0 on the rocks.

Australian trade minister says special relationship with UK is now for 'yesteryear'

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/australian-trade-minister-says-special-relationship-with-uk

[Futuroid]

6 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Again, going to be sidelined once he understands we'll never be in a better position in than out.  He's a buffoon.  This ends his career really..

It really is Hobson's Choice for the Tories.

May - tarnished, poor judgement
Johnson - loose lipped, embarrassing
Davis - incompetent, overconfident
Fox - slippery, tarnished, in Murdoch's pocket
Mogg - beano character, god squad, loose lipped
Gove - tarnished, in Murdoch's pocket, back stabber
Leadstrom - bird brain
Hammond - not a Brexiteer

[IMHAL]

14 hours ago, kzb said:

Don't be so negative !  For one thing it's us they want the money off.  Currently they are looking at a black hole in the budget with no other nation willing to pay one cent more.

We have millions of EEs, try and find jobs for all them.

£70 billion or whatever negative trade balance....security....defence....

Funny... all the above do not seem to be helping one jot in our 'negotiation' . Quite simply, we do not appear to have much leverage.

[Futuroid]

2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Quite simply, we do not appear to have much leverage.

Not news to anyone paying attention.

I think the truth - that we won't get the benefits of the single market without being in it - is dawning on even the hardcore Brexit brigade now.

So they are trying to formulate a credible alternative vision on the hoof. For this smarter ones this is to try and gain some leverage in the EU negotiations. The not so smart ones actually believe we could leave with no deal in April 2019 (despite public pronouncements from industry, HMRC, etc. saying this would lead to chaos). 

Can you bluff when all your cards are on the table and in full public view? Find out in next week's exciting episode of "Quitters gonna quit".

[HairyOb1]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Not news to anyone paying attention.

I think the truth - that we won't get the benefits of the single market without being in it - is dawning on even the hardcore Brexit brigade now.

So they are trying to formulate a credible alternative vision on the hoof. For this smarter ones this is to try and gain some leverage in the EU negotiations. The not so smart ones actually believe we could leave with no deal in April 2019 (despite public pronouncements from industry, HMRC, etc. saying this would lead to chaos). 

Can you bluff when all your cards are on the table and in full public view? Find out in next week's exciting episode of "Quitters gonna quit".

It is funny isn't it; it's akin to holding, and showing,  a pair of tens and going all in.  I'm embarrassed that the country is led by folk who must have thought, at some stage, yeah, they'll cave in.

We're going to be shafted, the whole brexit shebang is going to be a farce and when we leave, if we leave, we'll soon cave in and want to top back in, but this time without vetoes and also we'll have to accept the Euro.  Now for me, this is ideal, but to a brexiteer, the next few years are going to be the most disappointing they've ever had.

 

[jonb2]

3 hours ago, Futuroid said:

It really is Hobson's Choice for the Tories.

May - tarnished, poor judgement
Johnson - loose lipped, embarrassing
Davis - incompetent, overconfident
Fox - slippery, tarnished, in Murdoch's pocket
Mogg - beano character, god squad, loose lipped
Gove - tarnished, in Murdoch's pocket, back stabber
Leadstrom - bird brain
Hammond - not a Brexiteer

"Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few."
 

[dryrot]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

It is funny isn't it; it's akin to holding, and showing,  a pair of tens and going all in.  I'm embarrassed that the country is led by folk who must have thought, at some stage, yeah, they'll cave in.

We're going to be shafted, the whole brexit shebang is going to be a farce and when we leave, if we leave, we'll soon cave in and want to top back in, but this time without vetoes and also we'll have to accept the Euro.  Now for me, this is ideal, but to a brexiteer, the next few years are going to be the most disappointing they've ever had.

You are hilarious. You lost Project Fear and now the above fantasy. I wont ask for evidence to prove your ludicrous suggestions (join the Euro catastrophe!!!). Are you seriously suggesting that Germany wont want to sell us cars, or France agricultural products after Brexit? Of course they will, and we will sell to them in return. We just wont be ruled from Brussels. (or pay them £10bn pa)

[pig]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

It is funny isn't it; it's akin to holding, and showing,  a pair of tens and going all in.  I'm embarrassed that the country is led by folk who must have thought, at some stage, yeah, they'll cave in.

We're going to be shafted, the whole brexit shebang is going to be a farce and when we leave, if we leave, we'll soon cave in and want to top back in, but this time without vetoes and also we'll have to accept the Euro.  Now for me, this is ideal, but to a brexiteer, the next few years are going to be the most disappointing they've ever had.

 

You can't really blame the politicians for this one. Leavers generally -  in forums in person everywhere - have insisted  ad nauseum that the EU will cave in. You can by all means identify the source of the brainwashing if that is what it is but I'm increasingly starting to think blaming politicians is just shooting the messenger from idiotic voters.

Edited September 16, 2017 by pig

[Peter Hun]

8 minutes ago, pig said:

You can't really blame the politicians for this one. Leavers generally -  in forums in person everywhere - have insisted  ad nauseum that the EU will cave in.

And the EU, in return, couldn't give two hoots what the English want. It isn't even on their radar.

[HairyOb1]

30 minutes ago, dryrot said:

You are hilarious. You lost Project Fear and now the above fantasy. I wont ask for evidence to prove your ludicrous suggestions (join the Euro catastrophe!!!). Are you seriously suggesting that Germany wont want to sell us cars, or France agricultural products after Brexit? Of course they will, and we will sell to them in return. We just wont be ruled from Brussels. (or pay them £10bn pa)

I lost project fear?  I am flattered you think I was involved.  

I actually think we'll not leave in any meaningful way.  If we do leave, you'll see us paying almost the same as we did before, much like Norway and Switzerland do for access to the EU.  What you completely misunderstand, is that this isn't a fiscal discussion, it's an ideological discussion, in that the EU must not be seen to be in a worse position, nor us in a better one, out than in.  Mercedes chief stated the other day, yes, England is important, but not as important as the EU.  Head of a leading exporter of cars stating the obvious, that thick retainers cannot come to terms with.

14 minutes ago, pig said:

You can't really blame the politicians for this one. Leavers generally -  in forums in person everywhere - have insisted  ad nauseum that the EU will cave in. You can by all means identify the source of the brainwashing if that is what it is but I'm increasingly starting to think blaming politicians is just shooting the messenger from idiotic voters.

I know, it's acutely funny to be honest - Yes, they need us more than we need them (58% of our exports go the the EU), yeah, they need to sell us their cars (Not really), they'll cave in to our cake and eat it plans.

How are these swivel eyed loons going to react when we end up paying £50bn to leave, then £5bn a year to trade with them, still have to conform to EU regulations and accept some form of FOM.  Pop corn time I think.

3 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

And the EU, in return, couldn't give two hoots what the English want. It isn't even on their radar.

I know, and once people start thinking like this, we'll be able to move forward properly and negotiate as adults, not pompous idiots.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, dryrot said:

 Are you seriously suggesting that Germany wont want to sell us cars, or France agricultural products after Brexit? Of course they will, and we will sell to them in return. 

Most of our exports are services, which we won't be able to sell outside the single market.

We will still import EU goods but we we won't export much.

Hilarious, eh?

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Dunno if you guys saw this... Empire 2.0 on the rocks.

Australian trade minister says special relationship with UK is now for 'yesteryear'

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/australian-trade-minister-says-special-relationship-with-uk

Ciobo couldn't have been clearer... sequencing:

Quote

...

He added that: "The UK and Australia of course do have a historical relationship, but it’s in many respects a relationship of yesteryear."

Ciobo, who met for talks with trade secretary Liam Fox earlier this week, said any negotiations with the UK could only begin once Brexit had been completed...

..."Yes there will be an official working group, to look at scoping some of these things, but to parallel that scoping exercise with the much more formal scoping exercise that the EU and Australia have undertaken I think would be a mistake. This is a much more advanced discussion that we've been having with the EU." ...

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/australian-trade-minister-says-special-relationship-with-uk

[Sheeple Splinter]

43 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Most of our exports are services, which we won't be able to sell outside the single market.

We will still import EU goods but we we won't export much.

Hilarious, eh?

Depends on one's sense of humour:

Quote

...

• Non-EU Exports for July 2017 were £16.7 billion. This was an increase of £2.9 billion (21 per cent) on last month, and an increase of £4.7 billion (39 per cent) compared with July 2016. 
   
• Non-EU Imports for July 2017 were £18.3 billion. This was a decrease of £1.0 billion (5.4 per cent) on last month, and a decrease of £1.8 billion (9.1 per cent) compared with July 2016. 
   
• In Non-EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £1.7 billion.
   
• EU Exports for July 2017 were £13.3 billion. This was a decrease of £1.2 billion (8.0 per cent) compared with last month, but an increase of £1.4 billion (12 per cent) compared with July 2016. 
   
• EU Imports for July 2017 were £20.9 billion. This was a decrease of £1.5 billion (6.7 per cent) compared with last month, but an increase of £1.4 billion (7.1 per cent) compared with July 2016. 
   
• In EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £7.6 billion. 
   
• The proportion of total exports to the EU was 44 per cent in July 2017. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 39 per cent to 51 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU was 53 per cent in July 2017. Over the same period, this has ranged between 46 per cent and 56 per centt. 

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

Top Export Market: USA

Top Export Product: Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances...

[HairyOb1]

7 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Depends on one's sense of humour:

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

Top Export Market: USA (after EU)

Top Export Product: Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances...

So, please, tell us how much, as a percentage, the US market is worth to us...