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london_thirtythree

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Everything posted by london_thirtythree

  1. In 2016, I thought it might be relatively simple. The vote was pretty close - so a fair position would be to pick one of the 'off-the-shelve' soft Brexit models. That way the EU would have a hard time screwing it (if indeed that is their aim) as the rules and regulations are already in place. The Soft Brexit would annoy the extremists on both sides, but would keep a big chunk of the middle ground happy and satisfy the 'just get on with it' dimension. If we had done this, I imagine there is a good chance we could be out by now, there would have been no march, little remain campaign, and we could be focusing on our future. Afterwhich, each Party at future elections could have staked their claim to either moving further out of the EU, or moving closer in, and this could form part of our normal electoral process instead of this mad pursuit of some imagined will of the people. That would have been my approach - I'm a bit lost why the Tories didn't go for it. As it is, it seems like we are heading for No-Deal-Disaster vs Remain - and so by dropping any compromise, we are drifting path-of-least-resistance.style to some extreme or other.
  2. Aye - I try and be level headed about Brexit, and treat it like any other political decision that I am on the wrong side of.. But the slow seeping damage to my country and the fairly obvious 'could-not-give-a-monkeys-i'm-alright-jack' of its chief architects is really hard to stay civil about.
  3. Can't deal with Brexit.. Simples, just pontificate about what women should wear instead! Particularly on a topic you know next to nothing about, and you know your audience knows even less! Standard Boris - other than the outrage cycle to generate clicks and column inches, I've no idea why so many people rise to it. Can't we have some politicians with some actual bravery to try and lead the country through Brexit and define the future for people in the UK? Given that Boris is so unhappy with May's Brexit plan, why isn't he at home working through all the options to present his alternative counter proposal? (can you imagine if this was a business - morning all, do we want to discuss why this project is failing and draw up an action plan to turn it around? Nah, would rather use this meeting to discuss how much we like/don't like our colleague's religious choices and forget about our falling market position.)
  4. Remainers think we are heading for a no-deal disaster. Brexiteers think we are going for BINO.. Boris is still no closer to being PM No one is happy ?
  5. It's not true any more though - the right have lost their practical side and embraced a weird kind of extreme identity politics. The most obvious example being 'Global Britain' whilst pulling out of one of largest single markets available - it can be one or the other (and with good reasons on both sides), but it can't be both. Looking at the Tories and the Republicans, they often seem to be living disconnected from reality. There probably is a pragmatic, practical Brexit that could be implemented in a way that fits the vote and managed over a long period of time - but we ain't getting it.
  6. Well - as far as I can see, the problem with copy'n'paste is that Britain then has a version of the current rules. (and so is in regulatory alignment) But as soon as ECJ or the EU make a change to how pillows are regulated within the single market, do we take the rule? Or do we opt out of any new rules? If the latter, then we slide out of alignment and so have a widening customs gap. (and so need borders to prevent the UK importing a tonne of pillows from the US which do not follow this regulation and then exporting these into the EU to circumnavigate regulation) If the former, then we accept new rules from the EU and hence all the sovereignty fears. So I think copy'n'paste could be the starting point, but we would need some take on the level of integration vs non-integration, which I presume is the sticking point. Be interesting if anyone more familiar than me on international trade had a better understanding on whether that is the problem or not, but to my limited knowledge that seems to be the main sticking point.
  7. Maybe that should be the Brexit plan, we can pimp ourselves out to the highest bidder across the globe. Who knows what trade rules we would end up with, but at least we might all get a few quid to help pump up the property market some more!
  8. They do seem spectacularly rubbish - I had more positive thoughts to David Davis before hand, but seems (from what we can get from the media) like he was treating the whole thing like a side-job and wasn't really clever enough to do it. But in their defense, is presumably a massively difficult job and we seem to have spent 2 years just trying to work out the basics of what post-Brexit Britain should look like.
  9. I think the original joining would effectively have been a 'crash-in' as we would have adopted a whole new set of rules, some of which would have taken affect instead of our existing rules in one big go - but this would have been a planned action with a known destination. (did it take a few years way back when as a transition? Don't know my facts on our original joining) But presumably was a planned introduction of the new rules. Whereas leaving without a deal/plan would be an unknown and essentially no knowing what our direction would be. So say if we said now (or better still, back in 2017) that our intention was to leave under WTO Rules, here is our plan to do it, here is what we needed/wanted from the EU and we started implementing that plan - then I think we could leave to WTO Rules without this being described as crashing out. Whereas if we say we want deal A, cannot get it, cannot negotiate or agree deal B, and then end up with no deal at all, then crashing out becomes apt wording. (IMHO, for what its worth!)
  10. Think I know enough to clear that one up. We have 40 years of regulation and agreements with the EU that define the rules of how we import, export, safety standards et all. The post-Brexit deal we make with Europe goes some way to deciding how much or how little of these rules we want to retain, and so how easy it will be to trade with Europe. Any deal we devise will redefine these rules as our new UK position that we have with the EU, which will then help us determine our position with non-EU countries. The reason why no-deal would be a 'crashing out' is that we would go from a fully fleshed out set of rules (albeit some of which created and managed by institutions external to ourselves such as the ECJ) to having no idea what our rules would be - and so we would not have a position on what British import and export rules would be. Leaving is one thing, but leaving without knowing where we want to go is where this becomes 'crashing'. I think this is why it is referred to as crashing out, as we would go from some rules to no rules. A deal is successfully agreeing to change our rules - whereas no-deal is accepting we do not know what our rules should be yet. Any deal, be it soft, hard or near total Brexit could still be a deal or agreement that would define our new position for international trade (some with the EU, some not with the EU) as good, bad or indifferent, and so not a crash as this would be a planned position - but no-deal would be a question mark over the lot of it, therefore risk, hence crashing. In IT terms, it would be an unhandled error in a computer program, its not caught by the usual processes and so outputs as the program stopping and needing to be restarted under different conditions - which we define as a crash. (there is an argument that it would be alright on the night but is very uncertain - there is the option to copy'n'paste the existing rules that we have adopted from Europe over the last 40 years but that is where the regulatory alignment comes in, and so on and so on) In this case, you could make an argument that the crash is caught by WTO Terms as the fall-back state to avoid complete crash - but WTO Rules come with their own institutions and agreements that we would need to agree, just with the WTO instead of the EU. I think that's why the term crash is used and fits reasonably well to summarise a longer discussion into a snappy more easily digested buzzword.
  11. Well, one thing is certain, that's the final nail for interest rates going up on Thursday! (if the lower GDP hadn't been already)
  12. I think this one is a good sign of where London is heading: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53665272.html Very trendy location but small and not practical for most - but I imagine would have previously found a market purely on location alone, whereas now is struggling. (has been on the market for 6 to 12 months I think, and is now £525k when was on at £650k if memory serves)
  13. Apologies if this has already been posted, but the article posted in that MumsNet thread is pretty crashie to say the least: https://medium.com/@dreilly35/apocalypse-now-londons-property-crash-has-begun-4bd489e594ce
  14. I have some sympathy with politics for not being perfect - so would agree that any ideal government would have stepped in during the 2000's to limit the BTL boom, as a good eye could probably have predicted that this would become damaging. But I don't expect government to be ideal as everyone is rarely perfect. However by 2013 I think you have to be (willfully?) blind not to see the problems this was storing up - and so my sympathy starts to fall away.
  15. Becoming? Its been sliding that way for years.. The homeless figures being the most obvious indicator, but there is loads of other more subtle information that UK Housing is a disaster area for many people. Any sensible government would have seen the problems brewing in 2013 and taken action to stop runaway HPI, reduce Housing Benefit and do more to stop the problem impacting the growth, productivity and stability of the UK. Instead we got Help-to-Buy.
  16. The floor plan is laugh out loud funny. Open Plan Living indeed..
  17. That Pie chart is staggering.. Probably needs greater media coverage to point out that even the 'house-price-winners' who have benefited from HPI have indirectly suffered from having to pay more and more in taxes to help fund higher house prices.
  18. Ironically, its probably attitudes like this that make up half of the Brexit abuse. If Brexit causes significant pain and lower standard of living, it's a pretty odd position to simply whistle 'well Bob from Liberal Elite ville mocked me for Brexit, so nothing will change my mind now, that'll show him'. There is generally a fair bit of useful investment advice on this forum which I find quite interesting for a novice such as myself, and some segments of this advise is to avoid confirmation bias and to accept your losses to avoid greater losses - seems odd that none of this gets applied to politics. As a remainer (if indeed that has any meaning anymore, it's not like the terms have any use after the referendum), I'm hoping that Brexit goes as well as it possibly can - and hey, if it ends up as the right direction for the country to have taken then I'll be happy to have been wrong about it. (and suck up some abuse, as it will be funny then - salty remainer tears and all that) The ability to be wrong and admit it I find quite liberating.
  19. Politics wise, it is a good sounding policy that Tory MPs will trumpet in TV spots and interviews - much like help to buy was endlessly parroted as doing something for the young un's. So imagine that will keep them happy to cover their talking points. However HTB has generally been found out in the media now, so maybe this one will be as well.. but is mostly about talking big, rather than doing big. Tis a shame, you feel that May's government are in a position where they could genuinely be quite radical; but is safety first tinkering as ever..
  20. It's a bit silly really. The definition of FTB is not wildly fair. (sucks to be divorced!) And is not going to help First Time Buyers or the Housing Market beyond a superficial level. Not my call, but if it was, I'd cut Stamp Duty altogether, introduce a Land Value Tax plus higher taxes on borrowing a la S24 to try and reduce levels of debt, and nudge prices down - but I imagine this would be impractical for some reason.
  21. As an Islington dweller - I think the Upper Street and surrounding area is a lovely place to live, and will always 'have something about it' as long as places don't start shutting up shop. If you go off into nearby Essex Street, this is more basic and still quite nice and independent. I travel quite a bit in the UK, and Islington is proper nice to spend time/evenings in. The problem with these areas is that they tend to be premium priced compared to other places in the UK, or even in London. So when the economy is good and people are going out there all is well, if there was belt tightening or a recession then these places would get hit as these things would be high of the list of cutbacks. (try comparing the cost of Screen on the Green to another London cinema.. is a lovely gaff tho) I'm not in the know on the link between rising house prices and people's spending on this kind of thing. (as presumably once you have your mortgage, would rising paper money encourage you to spend? I guess it does somehow but seems odd to me, as what your place is *perceived* to be worth is not really connected with your day to day spending.. but that might be my naivety on how much house prices affect things) The problem with houseprices in Islington and most of London is that they are simply too expensive - and the premium for owning a place in London is probably >£300,000 now (i.e. a place in London for £500,,000 would probably cost £200,000 elsewhere) and alot of people I know are looking for a better long term purchase elsewhere. From what I can gather, alot of people rushed into the bubble in 2013 and 2014 on the basis of prices only ever going up and so was more of a speculative purchase - but that perception is taking a beating at the moment. (of which I am a proud nay-sayer on! As I think buying in London as an 'investment' at the moment is pretty dumb) That alongside with declining interest from BTLs and Foreign Investment seems to be spelling doom for London at the moment, and presumably for at least the next year whilst Brexit uncertainty goes on and on which is further depressing BTL and Foreign Investment. Will rebound somewhat when prices drop to the point that FTBs are more involved, which at current interest rates is £400k to £500k - but as interest rates go up, that will drop further. So I imagine London will be in decline for 2018 and 2019, the rate of this decline being governed by Interest Rates and Brexit, and whether people start fleeing for the exits and drop their prices dramatically. (which I've seen a couple of now, so you never know how it will go!)
  22. I presume John Redwood is to be lambasted as 'talking Britain down', 'not believing in Brexit' and being an 'enemy of the people'.. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/13/labour-accuses-john-redwood-of-talking-britain-down I imagine most of the leading lights promoting Brexit were or are well invested to avoid any discomfort while they play politics. I do appreciate some of the opinions behind Brexit on some level, and the deeper debate between Globalisation and the Financialisation of the Economy - but surely of the Brexit school of thought must admit that some of the Brexit Promoters (dare we say the 'establishment') are kind of taking people for a ride over this.
  23. Can't comment about Prime Z1 market - but Z2 and Z3 London has been struggling or the last year; I think there was a bit of a post-Brexit dead cat bounce in November 2016 but otherwise has very obviously been slowing and slowing before grinding to a full halt. (as most people buying into London are doing it for the gainz given the crazy prices, the moment it starts to fall, then no one wants in) The weird thing is that media have done a number on most of the vendors in London so they actually believe their crazy valuations, and so very few will reduce their properties to actually sell the things - hence complete stand still. In my experience, the clever money sold up and got the hell out of dodge at the end of 2015 as was fairly obvious what would happen; now there is a few people reducing like mad to get out, and the rest sat wondering why they have no interest. It's a market that is largely lifeless. I don't know if it will crash as people race to the exits - or it will just hang there as neither party gives way. But in essence the London was stitched together by BTL, foreign buyers and FTBs who believed that the only way was up; all three seem to now be gone, and so not sure where it goes from here.
  24. Heheh.. I'd give it a go.. Might be better to set a lower 'target' mind and say 25% or 30% - might even get a few takers to let us know the market is truly desperate..
  25. Mmm.. think that is overly harsh; is a very well written article and the last section about his father is pretty moving. Peston has always seemed very establishment to me, but that article is a very succinct and to the point criticism of where the 'haves' have been looking the other way for too long; and how Britain and the US have slid into very polarized territory as a result.
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