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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Thorn

  1. Seems like it’s The Fundamentals v CB Interventionistas. feels like 8-nil to the CB Interventionistas. ... my question is about timing... when is IBTL going to step up and score 3 for us, lads?
  2. Really good man thank you for the links. Will get reading. For what it’s worth- I thought the John Kay book was really interesting- be a contrarian seems to be the attitude. Seems to me like Property has begun its decline and stocks will be next. It’s the timing that’s the thing.
  3. Looking at the M Armstrong signposts versus John Kay - style realism I think it’s really interesting to consider whether fundamentals will prevail or if crazy will continue. Question for Sancho Panza if youre on for it and you’re there- Where do you check to find out for sure how much stock market trading stems from borrowed money- margin calls?
  4. Wait til they get a load of all the Cheques I will be unleashing.
  5. The valuations should revert to mean Sancho Panza but the wealth preservation angle could lead foreign capital to seek safety - parking capital. I thought Italian bonds would just keep sinking but seem up and US treasuries down today.
  6. Depends if you think global money will seek a safe haven that isn't government.
  7. I reckon nobody really knows, Viceroy. if I had to pick a team I would be marching towards the enemy trenches with DB. No question.
  8. Tricky for sure. DB has been on the money. MA paints a broad/stroke future picture. Avoid bonds, get into equities before the panicky foreigners do.
  9. True. Hard to step back. Wish I had earned it through QE/TFS. Then it would not matter.
  10. I sold it all a week or two ago because it was so volatile and rubbish... but checked in on Friday morning and decided sod it bought a big chunk and watched it go updownupdownup over the day. Holy God it was rotten. Then it went up and held and was great. And now I think we’ll sod it it’s not Mothercare so you never know. People will need gas...so Fingers crossed for the next week and beyond. ... I reckon this hold for the longterm thing sounds lovely but is horrible when you watch every hour because you’ve had to earn every penny. Self employed here myself. Learning as I go. Don’t want to lose out...but also want to ride the next wave.
  11. Go on then -Chronyx/ what’s the plan for this week...it’s hold tight to the IBTL for me and see if I can move a chunk from one of my picks which isn’t doing well to one that is... might make a bit...
  12. I’m sure DB will get back if he gets the chance here... ...but from what I have read, re MTN I’d be mindful of the Geopolitical risk associated with South Africa/ emerging markets, contagion and all that. DYOR as always, not advice etc, but heres a list worth an hour digging through on google if it helps... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_telephone_operating_companies
  13. Some graph. Good to know. I think most civilians consider gold a safe haven even without all the gold cheerleader people you can find online. It’s tied up with safety for most. I think Martin Armstrong mentions climate change, plagues, robots and war because he sees himself like a historian of modern times in the style of Gibbon who wrote the history of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. But here , had to laugh there. Was just reading about how great Redrow is and how nice a job they are doing- how they are going to keep growing enormously- over at the Motley Fool. I was starting looking for evidence of do people really ever get creative with accounts eg bringing forward future sales etc to keep their books “on target” or what’s the other BS you hear every day -“In Line With Expectations”. One minute after reading your idea about shorting housebuilders. Pure Magic DB.
  14. So far it’s like your signposts are bang on plus there seem to have been signals from government mentioning rebuilding infrastructure etc. And it’s hard not to see a crash first. Armstrong seems to just say Nobody Wants Gold Any More it’s not useful or movable and This Time It’s Different.
  15. +1 Watched all day as things took off. Glad moved out of stocks for a bit. And anyone in on Infrastrata... that was spectacular today as well. Who knew digging caves for gas storage could be cool.
  16. Thanks both. Called them again. On the app you see in red Today’s loss and in blue today’s gain. The costs are all included in the deal quote that you accept.
  17. In HL SIPP how much does a trade cost on top of their trading fee, DB. There seems to be a tax on top and then forex for the US trades. Is that the Entry and Exit charge, or are they separate I wonder. Just called them for some info. Still a bit baffled. Is there a certain amount you would invest per trade to make it worthwhile?
  18. Sold nearly all of DOW stocks nicely up and with dollar up when the GDX going was good there. Then today when BBC Radio 2 announced the FTSE was at a new Record High this morning I decided right sod that- decided let’s get contrarian - feels like a good day to get more into IBTL and Eldorado. You know- before all those Argentinians, Italians and Turks with their domestic stuff. Anyway- I did. And what an amazing day it turned out to be. So I’m going to stay nimble and see what tomorrow brings. DB assuming GDX does indeed move up a bit then down a bit... what sort of dollar stocks are you looking at, apart from miners? Everybody DYOR etc...
  19. It did. Lots of the miners are crawling up- First Majestic, Sibanye too. And Cameco is a bit of an odd one but interesting to see what will happen. DB’s picks have been on the money. DYOR etc. but thanks again DB. I want to figure out how to protect the gains from a crash. Not sure how to put rolling stops on HL SIPP. I am now reading a really good book called The Long and The Short of It. John Kay. Really recommend it- puts a lot of concepts together for a novice.
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