Dorkins Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, renting til I die said: I think that you may be right and I doubt Rejoin will be a good an option than Remain. The government seem to have a lot to answer for on how they have wasted the 2 years exit planning on getting a deal which leaves us with at least another 2 years of errr.. exiting planning!? The thing about rejoining during the transition period is that it would be basically invisible, just like the change on March 30th 2019 will be. Same single market and customs rules apply both sides of the switch, nobody's lives altered, life goes on. Edited November 28, 2018 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Watching Sky News just now, Corbyn looks like a sensible politician against May's shrill "defiant" bluster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, renting til I die said: The government seem to have a lot to answer for on how they have wasted the 2 years exit planning on getting a deal which leaves us with at least another 2 years of errr.. exiting planning!? That was the schedule set down by the EU/27, to which we swiftly agreed. You could argue we might have been better off going into intensive no-deal planning, but that would have been torn apart politically. Don't forget, half of the country and the majority of the establishment/meeja/political class have been ripping into any Brexit planning, at any/every opportunity. The deal is a result of what the EU/27 would give us, and what was possible amid the frenzied obstruction and debate at home. Edited November 28, 2018 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Why let politicians decide the order of what comes up against what in two separate votes? This could easily influence the outcome and might encourage people to vote tactically to intentionally put the worst, least popular option through from round one knowing that in round two people would panic and vote for the other one. Single transferable vote is more democratic, every option against every option at the same time with the least popular option eliminated first and its second preferences redistributed. Yeah, that sounds like the way to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Riedquat said: Wasn't an improved Remain offering what Cameron claimed he was going to get us before the referendum? Yes, but it never came to fruition. If it will be offered again and this time properly explained, people will know exactly what will remain consist of. But first of all, the government will have to ask the EU if the deal is still available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 56 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: If there is a second referendum, primarily to decide between a hard Brexit and May's hybrid abomination, it would make sense to add a third option to remain in the EU. Not allowing the people to change their minds in the light of knowledge gained over the past two years would be unforgivable and most certainly not democratic. How would that even work? What if you get 33% of votes for each? Any vote that includes a remain option is just an attempt to try and overturn the original vote. Can I change my vote for Tony Blair also whilst we are dismantling the democratic rules? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, zugzwang said: +1 There's no zeroth order model of the economy against which you can calibrate your assumptions. Either economists are too stupid to write one down, or the economy is fundamentally lawless (more plausible). Having said that, the amount of business generated by foreign trade and investment is dwarved into insignificance by the size of the domestic economy. If the latter is pathologically enfeebled by private sector debt then the former will never revive it. Since Thatcher, our main export is financials - limiting the front row beneficiaries to a handful of elites. Our domestic economy relies on debt simply because we don't make enough things people from other countries want to buy plus it's not as big as the US or China. Money flowing in from abroad for activities that benefit and give opportunities to the masses is the answer. Therefore jeopardising what little we have left of this input with Brexit is simply shooting ourselves in the head (Thatcher already shot the feet off in the 80s). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Watching Sky News just now, Corbyn looks like a sensible politician against May's shrill "defiant" bluster. Has it not crossed your mind that 'keeping all options on the table" means "we have no idea what we would do"? Their plans, as far as I can detect a plan, are based on nothing but wishful thinking, a weird, haughty superiority and outright fantasy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Yeah, that sounds like the way to do it. My guess is it will take the UK electorate and political class about another 2 years to figure out that another referendum will be needed to decide what type of Brexit should happen (if any) because there is no consensus in the Commons, and that the second referendum should be 3-way (Rejoin/EFTA/WTO) with single transferable vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, thehowler said: Time to let go on remain. Wait a few years and try for rejoin. Well looking at the options, that just leaves a no-deal then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renting til I die Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Watching Sky News just now, Corbyn looks like a sensible politician against May's shrill "defiant" bluster. 13 minutes ago, thehowler said: That was the schedule set down by the EU/27, to which we swiftly agreed. You could argue we might have been off going into intensive no-deal planning, but that would have been torn apart politically. Don't forget, half of the country and the majority of the establishment/meeja/political class have been ripping into any Brexit planning, at any/every opportunity. The deal is a result of what the EU/27 would give us, and what was possible amid the frenzied obstruction and debate at home. I have to agree with you here (although I always thought that intensive no-deal planning was the only sensible course of action after the first referendum, plan for the worst, hope for better, etc, etc..). Who would have thought that the path of least resistance would lead to a pile of dog poop! Edited November 28, 2018 by renting til I die Remove a quote... oh well.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 I 3 minutes ago, jonb2 said: 18 minutes ago, thehowler said: Time to let go on remain. Wait a few years and try for rejoin. Well looking at the options, that just leaves a no-deal then. Time is a bit tight. Could maybe scrape some form of promised Norway and get to another WA agreement for a transition, giving the EU/27 their money/stability? FOM won't be easy though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Mind you... But during a POLITICO interview in Brussels Tuesday, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg pointed out that it would mean Britain continuing to abide by the four EU freedoms, including freedom of movement, as well as having no decision-making power in Brussels. “Then I should just ask why … should you leave the EU if you’re accepting that?” she said. https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: You could be right, but it wasn't many weeks ago that various EU leaders were saying that it's not too late for the UK to change it's mind and remain. Various leaders have said that we could have a change of heart up until the end the any transition period. Assuming we get a transition, as far as the EU is concerned legally we have not left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, thehowler said: Mind you... But during a POLITICO interview in Brussels Tuesday, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg pointed out that it would mean Britain continuing to abide by the four EU freedoms, including freedom of movement, as well as having no decision-making power in Brussels. “Then I should just ask why … should you leave the EU if you’re accepting that?” she said. https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/ Yes it's still a dumb thing to do, a bit less dumb than May's deal and a lot less dumb than a no deal Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Quote The UK's economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath of "disorderly" Brexit, according to scenarios drawn up by the Bank of England. Growth would quickly resume and the economy would be expanding again by the end of 2023 but smaller than where it was before. Unemployment would rise to 7.5%, house price fall by 30% and commercial property prices collapse by 48%. Interest rates would reach 4% The Bank's analysis comes after the Treasury said the UK would be poorer economically under any form of Brexit. The UK's banking system would be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit, the Bank of England said after conducting stress tests on seven major banks. This is despite incurring £170 bn of trading and bad debt losses during the five year period of the stress test. The Bank of England is about to hold a press conference, which you can tune into on YouTube here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, jonb2 said: Yes but you have to have the right politicians with some brains to at least begin to tackle climate change. Do you think Gove is your action saviour ? No, I didn't think so. Frankly, looking at the way humans are going, it's probably time to hand it on to another species anyway. But how does remaining in the EU with open boarders protect my kids? We need to reduce the population, it was already declining before immigration.. Then automate jobs, and build renewables.. We need to get rid of all these politicians.. they are pure evil, run by lobbyists and self serving interest.. but we have the exact same politicians in Brussels that we can’t get rid of..! That’s a worry.. Tony bomb people to death btl landlord Blair was in line for the top job! He could run the U.K. again and we would be stuck with him! We must leave, we must save what little remains of a once half decent country.. before immigration. before: fgm child brides forced arranged marriages before Islamic terrorists before epedemic knife crime.. our benefits system is crumbling paying out for all this cheap Labour, it’s cheap for business but expensive for society.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Assuming we get a transition, as far as the EU is concerned legally we have not left. One foot in, one out. No voting rights. Not a member state. Trapped in another dimension... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: 10 minutes ago, thehowler said: Yes it's still a dumb thing to do, a bit less dumb than May's deal and a lot less dumb than a no deal Brexit. May must have something up her sleeve...surely. How is she going to get Parliament to vote for something that makes us worse off? It will have to be progress through collapse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said: How would that even work? What if you get 33% of votes for each? Any vote that includes a remain option is just an attempt to try and overturn the original vote. Can I change my vote for Tony Blair also whilst we are dismantling the democratic rules? Already discussed and sorted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, Dorkins said: My guess is it will take the UK electorate and political class about another 2 years to figure out that another referendum will be needed to decide what type of Brexit should happen (if any) because there is no consensus in the Commons, and that the second referendum should be 3-way (Rejoin/EFTA/WTO) with single transferable vote. In the meantime we could ditch the parliamentary system and introduce direct democracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, Dorkins said: I think remain will almost certainly not happen as both sides (the EU27 and the UK government) are both committed to the UK ceasing to be an EU member on 30th March 2019. After that the UK might rejoin the EU after a couple of years of the UK pointlessly asking for de facto single market membership without ECJ or EFTA Court jurisdiction and the EU saying that's not an option. Sound plausible. 2 hours ago, kzb said: Good catch ! Yes, persons with degrees in anything practical should be excluded from voting as well. How could I miss that out. Unless they are under 21 of course. Do engineers get a vote or is that too practical? 2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said: This site is house price crash. Many on here think the financial crisis is not yet over. I am one of those people ergo in or out we are going to have a massive recession once inflation and higher global rates bite. If we are out we can blame it on that. If we have a second refferendum and vote remain we could also have a hum dinger as our debt come home to roost and housing market goes down. So imho all the figures are pie in the sky and in or out is no guarantee of no recession. IMHO interest rates will remain low for at least the next 20 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Already discussed and sorted. I doubt it, but it is unlikely to happen anyway. If it did, I think more people would vote leave this time and with no deal. People don't like being told what to do, which is why I think Obama helped the leave campaign by telling the nation we need to remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Carney the closet HPCer? Hard Brexit = 30% house price falls! Not why I voted Leave... but I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: Do engineers get a vote or is that too practical? Clearly engineers shouldn't have the vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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