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Net immigration 'will settle at 245,000 a year': OBR upgrades estimates by 40,000 since November, pointing to big inflows from Ukraine, Hong Kong, student boom and post-Brexit points-based system


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HOLA441
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HOLA445
9 hours ago, onlooker said:

So house prices won't fall significantly.

 

28 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

It will certainly boost demand.

I predict an increase in flats and HMO'S and more profit to BLT landlords.  

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HOLA4412

coinciding with David Attenborough's new series exposing the increasing pressure on the wild landscapes in the British Isles...can nobody join the dots?

In addition consequences -depressed wages, upwards pressure on rents and house prices are obvious

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HOLA4413
1 minute ago, Wayward said:

coinciding with David Attenborough's new series exposing the increasing pressure on the wild landscapes in the British Isles...can nobody join the dots?

In addition consequences -depressed wages, upwards pressure on rents and house prices are obvious

Yeah, but virtue signaling gold stars and the personal benefits of worker exploitation means much more to rabid lefties than the future for their children.

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HOLA4414
14 hours ago, onlooker said:

So house prices won't fall significantly.

The number of people who died in 2021 was 667,479. The birth in 2020 was 1.56 per woman. By my reckoning that looks like a falling population, even with 245,000 immigrants. 

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39 minutes ago, 70PC said:

The number of people who died in 2021 was 667,479. The birth in 2020 was 1.56 per woman. By my reckoning that looks like a falling population, even with 245,000 immigrants. 

You give a number for the deaths in 2021 but not for the births, you just say how many children woman are having. 

I just did a quick Google for 2022. It stated :-

Number of Deaths UK 2022  = 650,000

Number of Births UK 2022    = 865,000

So more people are being born in the UK than are dying It is an increasing population even with no immigration. 

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15 hours ago, onlooker said:

So house prices won't fall significantly.

 

21 minutes ago, Stjames83 said:

What?! You’ve not been paying attention, this makes zero difference to prices. Supply and demand of credit is the only factor…

A friend of mine sells new build houses in a south east London Borough. When Help to Buy was available they were selling like hot cakes. Then when it finished in October the market went dead. As her development came under London they had been offering the full 40% London Help to Buy.

She would have people interested who then spoke to the mortgage broker finding out they they were unable to obtain the finance, many of them were a long way short of the asking prices. She might take a sale every now and again from someone who could afford the prices without Help to Buy, but soon after they would cancel, due to nervousness of the market and realising there was so much choice on offer elsewhere. 

Since October she has reserved just 1 house that did exchange contracts and complete. Then a few weeks ago she sold two houses for cash both to Hong Kong buyers. I wonder how many other cash Hong Kong buyers there are going to be , many of them don't need credit. 

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HOLA4419
10 minutes ago, Insane said:

You give a number for the deaths in 2021 but not for the births, you just say how many children woman are having. 

I just did a quick Google for 2022. It stated :-

Number of Deaths UK 2022  = 650,000

Number of Births UK 2022    = 865,000

So more people are being born in the UK than are dying It is an increasing population even with no immigration. 

Point taken and I was wrong. I looked at the births per woman and worked on the basis that it takes two to tango. 

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Just now, 70PC said:

Point taken and I was wrong. I looked at the births per woman and worked on the basis that it takes two to tango. 

They keep saying we have an ageing population and we need more immigration to sustain our ageing population. 

But by the looks of things at the rate people are dying compared to being born the population is increasing by 1 Million every five years just from the birth rate being bigger than the death rate. On top of that we have mass immigration which is also running at over 1 Million every five years. How long can these figures be sustained? 

Things don't seem to be working right now with a population of 70 Million, so why will they work with a population of 72 or 74 or any other number of Millions of people? 

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HOLA4421

The loss of wildlife and habitat pains me the most, but others have said, how sustainable is this? We can increase developed area by x%, decrease wild spaces and farmland by y%< but what really gets hammered is the rate of productivity required from the agricultural land that remains.

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HOLA4422
22 minutes ago, Insane said:

They keep saying we have an ageing population and we need more immigration to sustain our ageing population. 

But by the looks of things at the rate people are dying compared to being born the population is increasing by 1 Million every five years just from the birth rate being bigger than the death rate. On top of that we have mass immigration which is also running at over 1 Million every five years. How long can these figures be sustained? 

Things don't seem to be working right now with a population of 70 Million, so why will they work with a population of 72 or 74 or any other number of Millions of people? 

It's the nonsense of ageing population being sorted by births or immigration. At some point you need to stop the increase.

For every pensioner the theory goes you need 2.4 workers.

When births go below this you plug with immigration

When that person gets old.. they need 2.4 more people to replace, which happens X years sooner as person coming over at X years old not 0.

Lucky it's an infinity system.

Edited by captainb
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HOLA4423
34 minutes ago, Insane said:

 

A friend of mine sells new build houses in a south east London Borough. When Help to Buy was available they were selling like hot cakes. Then when it finished in October the market went dead. As her development came under London they had been offering the full 40% London Help to Buy.

She would have people interested who then spoke to the mortgage broker finding out they they were unable to obtain the finance, many of them were a long way short of the asking prices. She might take a sale every now and again from someone who could afford the prices without Help to Buy, but soon after they would cancel, due to nervousness of the market and realising there was so much choice on offer elsewhere. 

Since October she has reserved just 1 house that did exchange contracts and complete. Then a few weeks ago she sold two houses for cash both to Hong Kong buyers. I wonder how many other cash Hong Kong buyers there are going to be , many of them don't need credit. 

Like so much it's more than one factor.

Credit and schemes are one factor driving prices up or down.

Demand is another.

To pretend that prices won't fall in the absence of any other factor moving, by mortgages interest rates rising 2% is bizarre.

Just as silly is pretending that in the absence of movement in any other factor prices won't rise by immigration being at 250k per annum particularly in major cities 

 

Overall there is  netting of course.

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3 hours ago, 70PC said:

The number of people who died in 2021 was 667,479. The birth in 2020 was 1.56 per woman. By my reckoning that looks like a falling population, even with 245,000 immigrants. 

The line goes up.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

But this is the fun one.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

13.6 million extra (net) people in the world so far this year. 

Edited by PeanutButter
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HOLA4425
3 hours ago, Insane said:

You give a number for the deaths in 2021 but not for the births, you just say how many children woman are having. 

I just did a quick Google for 2022. It stated :-

Number of Deaths UK 2022  = 650,000

Number of Births UK 2022    = 865,000

So more people are being born in the UK than are dying It is an increasing population even with no immigration. 

hmmm.. this doesn't really chime with the 1.6ish fertility rate, unless there are many more women of fertile age than old (which we know not to be true). not denying the stats, just feel like we're missing something

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