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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by PropertyMania

  1. Subheading: "Sales of apartments are in a serious slump. Now may be the time to buy back in" err, no, it really isn't. They can't help themselves, can they? https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-the-flat-market-in-the-uk-broken-m8tvm360g
  2. yep, just had a quick look - totally different kettle of fish tax wise. Surprised holiday lets in EU can still qualify post brexit. Staycation oversupply will collapse next year, unless the public has suddenly found a love for rainy fortnights in Cornwall
  3. what's this about holiday lets not being subject to the BTL tax changes? Can someone elaborate please
  4. WFH probably stays in some form, but yeah, it's highly inefficient to heat both a half empty office and a load of individual homes too. Also home workers can't deduct heating bills from their income tax (unlike companies)
  5. +stamp duty ending 30/9/21 (small amount but psychologically important, Brits / humans hate idea of paying over the odds, especially in tax) +interest rates rising (UK ten year over 1% now, highest since mid 2019)
  6. We're basically going to become a nation of inbreds and idiots
  7. Putting aside the absurd chaos in the English Channel (which could be solved easily if politicians grew some balls), governments are going to be highly reluctant to increase immigration in response to this falling birth rate (the old trick). And seeing as the birth rate of immigrants massively outweighs natives, can we expect peak UK population quite soon and a long term decline thereafter? And what will house price bulls do without the population growth argument?
  8. Think the house price boom was in the early seventies and once inflation kicked in prices fell. If you think that's going to happen, you're better off holding an unleveraged asset like gold. Although be careful as gold isn;t especially cheap by historical standards
  9. England fell 4.5% in a month - that's what we need to compare against, and this does seem to indeed be a record (next largest fall was 4.4% in October 1992). But prices also rose 5.3% in June, so have to be a bit careful about getting over excited
  10. Look at any period in history: house prices do not follow inflation! Prices generally fall as inflation rises because it means interest rates hikes are on the way and the housing market is highly sensitive to that due to leverage.
  11. Global house price boom, yet London is down on the year in real terms (i.e. adjusting for inflation)
  12. works so long as you can find a greater fool to sell to. Highly risky if leveraged and only asset RL?
  13. Good question. As most would be sellers want to upsize, does it reduce price of houses and increases price of flats?
  14. Never really seen the point of buying a flat, especially in a high rise block. You only in a very limited sense 'own' it.
  15. Confirmed: Landlord income exempt from latest tax rise (they're even increasing dividend tax 1.25%)
  16. Excellent, well thought out post, thank you. We couldn't even come close to estimating the number of EU citizens legally in the country (5 million in reality vs expected 3m) so any estimate of the illegal population will be almost meaningless
  17. No worries, was an extreme example to really prove a point that it's not all about population -but yeah, probably should have said 7 million (still extraordinarily unlikely) rather than 70 million. There are plenty of highly over populated parts of the world where housing is cheap because of myriad other problems.
  18. wtf? what vested interest? I am of the opinion that you could double the population and house prices would still fall if the country became like Pakistan
  19. Should add that although mostly in the realm of absurdity, with the right set of circumstances - e.g. major displacement from a number African / Middle Eastern countries - it could actually happen as the border is wide open
  20. true, but it only needs to be less chaotic than the places they are coming from the question is obviously somewhat absurd, but it's interesting to think about. 70 million people is a huge burden for Britain, but only about 1.1% of the Asian + African population need to make the journey
  21. Let's say the channel migrant crisis gets totally out of control. The English Channel becomes clogged with boats, almost creating a walkway to Britain. Over the next year, 70 million people from Asia and Africa make the journey to Britain and the population doubles. Very few will ever be deported (perhaps 1 or 2%). What happens to house prices? Higher population = higher house prices, right? Or does it?
  22. Well simple maths would tell us that house prices increased by *at least* the amount saved on stamp duty, but we know that due to leverage it will inevitably be more. Average house in London is around £500k = 3% saving, yet prices only up around 4% in last year = broadly flat net.
  23. Just noticed that the 3% rise in London prices is almost exactly the same as the SD saving on the average house price there. So despite all the stimulus and other bungs, London prices are unchanged over the last year (and down in real terms)
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