2022 Predictions

[A.steve]

12 hours ago, Tw@t Badger said:

I don't have any Bitcoins. But..... couldn't we say the same thing about every type of investment, including gold, shares, property?

I think it is important to distinguish between investment and speculation.

I don't like any Cryptocurrency as an investment - and I don't like gold either.  The value of cryptocurrencies is nothing but hype - the value of a metal must, at least, be positive - as metals are useful and require much effort to hoard.  The down-side with gold is that it is easy to steal; difficult to secure - and has relatively few compelling uses.

Shares begs the question "In what" - but if you mean shares in a successful business... then I think that's distinct... as long as you are aware of the proportion of the business you're buying and its value as a whole when diving in.  Property - well... if it has utility and the utility is an adequate return on the purchase price... then, maybe, this too is like the share in a viable business.

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

 

[Twenty Something]

On 27/12/2021 at 17:48, Twenty Something said:

So, this seems to have descended into multiple pages of discussions about everything except the title. We're now onto knife incidents and electric cars as per the above. To get things back onto topic, my predictions for 2021 were pretty darn good in terms of continued HPI and Brexit / C19 passing without too much incident, despite many replies along the lines of you're crazy etc. For 2022, I would put the below out there.

 

- House Prices

The Halifax and Nationwide indices will be showing somewhere around 5% year on year increase. Supply will continue to be limited as people stay put for numerous reasons, and this will feed into property increasing in price. Interest rates are going to go nowhere dramatically - I'd go for between 0.5 - 1.0% by this time next year, but if C19 comes back in earnest then that'll be straight back down to 0.1%. 

- Asset Prices

Mainstream products such as the FTSE100 will see a slight increase. I think that it'll be a pretty steady as she goes year for big companies as they consolidate after the pandemic. Gold will be up I think 5 - 10% on the year as some people get worried about inflation and seek protection. Same for anything along those lines such as silver. Bitcoin is going to be an interesting one in this sense. I could see it rising as again people seek a hedge against inflation / seek to make bigger gains than their savings pots are making, but I don't see epic moonshot rises. Let's say 60k per coin by this time next year. 

- Inflation

Will continue to be present into spring and summer 2022. As the economy comes out of winter and into the warmer months then it could prove quite stubborn to shift as people come out and spend spend spend in the hospitality / leisure industry. I think we are going to see 4% ish figures come March and then above the 2% target through to the autumn budget. It will settle to the required 2% or below by this time next year. 

- The Economy 

Will be fine. Lots of jobs out there, lots of people in work. The middle classes will continue to live a good life. The rich will get richer as ever and the poor will bumble along. Nothing to rock the boat. Brexit behind us. Few stories of export issues and sad fishermen, but all a sideshow.

- Politics

If Boris gets through the next few months then he will be in power still this time next year. If he doesn't, there will be a leadership battle but the tories will retain power as there is no opposition. Biden will have a few more falling up the airplane stairs moments and I am 50/50 as to whether it will be him or Kamala Harris in power in 12 months. Trump will be looking good for a second term. 

- COVID

Still around, still killing people, becomes less and less on people's minds as time goes on. No further lockdowns or circuit breakers. Moves to being an endemic and not pandemic. 

- Scientific Breakthroughs

The James Webb Telescope finds a civilisation in the Andromeda Galaxy that has been priced out of housing for the last millennium. The tories, landlords and bankers on earth are blamed sparking an intergalactic battle for the survival of the human race.

- New Technology

AI continues to amaze and scare in equal measures. I finally get to buy a PS5. 

- Forum

The count of nowhere continues to be epically wrong about pretty much everything and has his 'account taken over' for the fourth time. He assumes his ultimate form as a bizarre mix of Godzilla and King Kong before going on a rampage down the M1 from Northampton to London and finally causing a (literal) house price crash through levelling the square mile. Every single thread for the next year will descend into a discussion about C19 conspiracy theories or electric cars (See this one). Phrases such as 'cooked in' and 'it's going to be an interesting few months' will continue to be rolled out on a weekly basis, and things will remain parboiled and boring. This forum will remain a hive of misery and despair as I think one poster so aptly put, and I will continue to check in weekly to see whether C19 is a black swan, the tide has turned yet on Mumsnet or whether 2022 has yet been brutal which is my current front runner for that didn't age well post of the year. Multiple posters will continue to laugh at my stupidity for buying a house and being unaware of the impending mega crash, and my life will continue to be awesome! 

@highcontrast see the above from a year ago by myself.

I predicted house prices up 5% year on year - Nationwide house price growth slowed to 4.4% YoY in November. How would you rate my prediction against this? 0.6% out and then I might be another 1 or 2% out by year end? 

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-slows-sharply-in-november

Asset prices - FTSE100 has been as predicted - steady as she goes, no huge variation other than a bit of turbulence through the year. 4th Jan 2022 - 7505, yesterday 7489. How would you rate my prediction?

Bitcoin - I was wrong. 13k or so now.

Inflation - I was wrong.

The Economy - what would be your assessment? Unemployment at 3.6% according to latest ONS data, which is historically about the best it has been. The middle classes? Well as per my reply on the other post, we're mostly just fine thanks.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms

Politics - Boris I was wrong, but Biden remains to be seen. Trump looking good for a come back?

COVID - Nailed it (It's my job).

Scientific Breakthroughs - yup, the Andromedans are still priced out of London property despite it all being terribly unfair and people like yourself promising that crashy crashy is just around the corner. The Andromedans have returned to their galaxy to reflect upon their desire to own a three bed semi in Dulwich. 

New Tech - I decided to get a switch rather than a PS5, but I could go get one tomorrow from Game so I'm claiming that one.

Forum - Nailed it. The tide is still turning on mumsnet despite the best efforts of a few here who clearly want to spread their misery wider than this particular forum. It's still going to be an interesting few months, the mega crash is still baked in, and I think that the is C19 going to crash the housing market thread has only just recently some two years later dropped off the front page. Multiple posters such as yourself continue to pat yourselves on the back about how clever you are without really understanding the irony of celebrating a 2.4% YoY fall against the backdrop of a 20/30% increase over the past few years / decade. Here you are a little under a year ago saying it's all gone quiet in the past week or so. Kind of similar to your latest post tagging me and saying oh, you've all gone a bit quiet. Probably because myself and @Stjames83and @Speed1987are bored of lowering ourselves to your level every month when you think you've made some sort of point.

What would you give my predictions from this time last year? B at least I would say, though I would accept some finger pointing and accusations of bias that might bargain me down to a  B-. Where are your predictions from 12 months back? Oh yeah, crashy crashy and a few pictures? Yeah, you've not really shone have you. F perhaps? 

 

[Nick Cash]

On 12/16/2021 at 11:17 AM, Casual-observer said:

Not a good outlook

• Inflation  will continue to run rampant (there is no alternative)
• Increased push for Covid passports/ID
• The above two will push up crime and possibly riots in Cities
• Boris gone
• Queen dead
• Russia invades Ukraine
• New wave of Arab springs as food inflations ramps up
• House prices grow on anaemic volume 

 

The winner. Indisputably.

[Trampa501]

On 18/12/2021 at 18:38, Trampa501 said:

I think we're going to see huge currency fluctuations in 2022, and situations where countries default that we wouldn't normally expect - possibly including the UK.

Here, certain industries will continue to prosper eg pharma, web services, financial gambling etc. Others like farming, fishing and certain tourist sectors will continue to shed loads.

In the end I was wrong, but not by much... if Truss had remained in power a few more weeks who knows where the UK economy would be now?

[Twenty Something]

6 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

The winner. Indisputably.

Yup. That’s a great prediction to be fair. 
 

@highcontrast still waiting for you to explain how my prediction that prices will be up at this point in time was wrong. There’s an evident huge gulf between what you are so desperate to convince yourself that I post, and what I actually post. You got anything other than crashy crashy? I’ll pre-empt your reply, thought not. 

[Timm]

Is 2022 over?

Did I miss a memo?

[scottbeard]

8 minutes ago, Timm said:

Is 2022 over?

Did I miss a memo?

I mean those correct predictions that Boris will be gone, the Queen will die, and Russia will invade Ukraine aren't really impacted by the last few weeks of 2022....

[Timm]

Just now, scottbeard said:

I mean those correct predictions that Boris will be gone, the Queen will die, and Russia will invade Ukraine aren't really impacted by the last few weeks of 2022....

That's true, it was a good prediction. By Casual Observer no less as well.

I was thinking about whether or not HPs will still be positive when the December stats get released...

 

[BorrowToLeech]

53 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I mean those correct predictions that Boris will be gone, the Queen will die, and Russia will invade Ukraine aren't really impacted by the last few weeks of 2022....

 

[zugzwang]

15 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

@highcontrast see the above from a year ago by myself.

I predicted house prices up 5% year on year - Nationwide house price growth slowed to 4.4% YoY in November. How would you rate my prediction against this? 0.6% out and then I might be another 1 or 2% out by year end? 

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-slows-sharply-in-november

Asset prices - FTSE100 has been as predicted - steady as she goes, no huge variation other than a bit of turbulence through the year. 4th Jan 2022 - 7505, yesterday 7489. How would you rate my prediction?

Bitcoin - I was wrong. 13k or so now.

Inflation - I was wrong.

The Economy - what would be your assessment? Unemployment at 3.6% according to latest ONS data, which is historically about the best it has been. The middle classes? Well as per my reply on the other post, we're mostly just fine thanks.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms

Politics - Boris I was wrong, but Biden remains to be seen. Trump looking good for a come back?

COVID - Nailed it (It's my job).

Scientific Breakthroughs - yup, the Andromedans are still priced out of London property despite it all being terribly unfair and people like yourself promising that crashy crashy is just around the corner. The Andromedans have returned to their galaxy to reflect upon their desire to own a three bed semi in Dulwich. 

New Tech - I decided to get a switch rather than a PS5, but I could go get one tomorrow from Game so I'm claiming that one.

Forum - Nailed it. The tide is still turning on mumsnet despite the best efforts of a few here who clearly want to spread their misery wider than this particular forum. It's still going to be an interesting few months, the mega crash is still baked in, and I think that the is C19 going to crash the housing market thread has only just recently some two years later dropped off the front page. Multiple posters such as yourself continue to pat yourselves on the back about how clever you are without really understanding the irony of celebrating a 2.4% YoY fall against the backdrop of a 20/30% increase over the past few years / decade. Here you are a little under a year ago saying it's all gone quiet in the past week or so. Kind of similar to your latest post tagging me and saying oh, you've all gone a bit quiet. Probably because myself and @Stjames83and @Speed1987are bored of lowering ourselves to your level every month when you think you've made some sort of point.

What would you give my predictions from this time last year? B at least I would say, though I would accept some finger pointing and accusations of bias that might bargain me down to a  B-. Where are your predictions from 12 months back? Oh yeah, crashy crashy and a few pictures? Yeah, you've not really shone have you. F perhaps? 

 

I think you need to give your crystal balls a rub, sonny.

The tenor of your pollyanna-ish forecast was business-as-usual, everything set fair and hpi forever. The reality of 2022 has been political chaos, runaway inflation and the looming prospect of a General Strike.

Oh, and house prices in free-fall.

Gertcha!!

[Twenty Something]

6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

I think you need to give your crystal balls a rub, sonny.

The tenor of your pollyanna-ish forecast was business-as-usual, everything set fair and hpi forever. The reality of 2022 has been political chaos, runaway inflation and the looming prospect of a General Strike.

Oh, and house prices in free-fall.

Gertcha!!

Yeah cool story. It’s like banging my head against a wall. Where have I said HPI forever? Do show me. Oh. Wait. You can’t either? And my prediction of 5% year on year is a ‘gertcha’ for you how?

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

Yeah cool story. It’s like banging my head against a wall. Where have I said HPI forever? Do show me. Oh. Wait. You can’t either? And my prediction of 5% year on year is a ‘gertcha’ for you how?

Your 'prediction' was essentially this:

17 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

... steady as she goes, no huge variation other than a bit of turbulence through the year.

You were wrong on all counts.

2022 will be remembered instead for the hurricane force winds that arrived from nowhere, flattening the landscape and ripping up decades of history.

[anonguest]

On 25/12/2021 at 10:12, yelims said:

I have a year and half of data of home pv generation, load shifting and ev consumption 

after switching both cars to phev hybrids and with working from home our family electricity usage doubled 

If this is replicated across economy then without serious investment in grids and new power generation western economies are ******ed 

They are.

But not for electrical grid reasons. 

Because the number of people who will own cars and be able to run them will probably halve.

Remember, you will own nothing and be happy.  😉

Edited December 8, 2022 by anonguest

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Your 'prediction' was essentially this:

You were wrong on all counts.

2022 will be remembered instead for the hurricane force winds that arrived from nowhere, flattening the landscape and ripping up decades of history.

I’m still waiting for you to tell me how my 5% up prediction for housing was ‘wrong on all counts’, and I’m still waiting for you to link me to where I’ve said HPI forever.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 15/12/2021 at 23:07, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Massive 1929 style stock market collapse

Interest rates much higher than people think possible, some countries have already started raising hard. 

Arrests of corrupt politicians and bankers 

House prices become irrelevant as money becomes worthless

Covid being kicked into the grass because people just no longer believe the corrupt politicians 

Boris won't see out January 

Another white etonian related to the queen elected pm

Queen will be dead 

Maybe Charles as head of state will cause protests 

2022 is going to be shit for millions 

I didn't do too badly here 

[Social Justice League]

HPC is looking like a side show in 2023, as we slide into systematic breakdown of society.

Printing worthless fiat for 50 years has brought us to this.

[Pmax2020]

1 hour ago, Social Justice League said:

HPC is looking like a side show in 2023, as we slide into systematic breakdown of society.

Printing worthless fiat for 50 years has brought us to this.

Fiats works fine for many countries. The issue for the UK is decades of government corruption and mismanagement of public money.

[scottbeard]

10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I didn't do too badly here 

To be honest, "Queen dead" looks to me like the only one you really got right!

Boris lasted way beyond January, Rishi isn't a white Etonian, The stock market fell modestly and is back on its way up...

I guess "2022 will be shit for millions" was always going to be true, because frankly if you're poor every year is

[Twenty Something]

15 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

To be honest, "Queen dead" looks to me like the only one you really got right!

Boris lasted way beyond January, Rishi isn't a white Etonian, The stock market fell modestly and is back on its way up...

I guess "2022 will be shit for millions" was always going to be true, because frankly if you're poor every year is

You beat me to it. If mine was a B- I’d give @TheCountOfNowherea F at best, possibly just a straight out fail. At least he’s consistently wrong I guess. 

[zugzwang]

15 hours ago, anonguest said:

 

Remember, you will own nothing and be happy.  😉

It's the gospel of Gammon B*llshit News, how could we ever forget?

[zugzwang]

18 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

You beat me to it. If mine was a B- I’d give @TheCountOfNowherea F at best, possibly just a straight out fail. At least he’s consistently wrong I guess. 

You wish. 😆

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

To be honest, "Queen dead" looks to me like the only one you really got right!

Boris lasted way beyond January, Rishi isn't a white Etonian, The stock market fell modestly and is back on its way up...

I guess "2022 will be shit for millions" was always going to be true, because frankly if you're poor every year is

You're nit picking there  
 

Interest rates much higher than people think possible, some countries have already started raising hard.  Spot on

Arrests of corrupt politicians and bankers , Fat Boris prosecuted for party gate

House prices become irrelevant as money becomes worthless, This is happening now.

Covid being kicked into the grass because people just no longer believe the corrupt politicians, Spot on.

Boris won't see out January Should have said January 2023

Queen will be dead Told Ya.

Maybe Charles as head of state will cause protests People throwing eggs and him, prtotests all over, strikes.

2022 is going to be shit for millions Spot on....2023 will be worse.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

34 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You wish. 😆

Ahhh, the trolls stick their heads above the parapets. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

11 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

HPC is looking like a side show in 2023, as we slide into systematic breakdown of society.

Printing worthless fiat for 50 years has brought us to this.

House prices become irrelevant as money becomes worthless,