Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[MARTINX9]

8 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

 The latest Omicron data is here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview

Anyone know what they mean by "S-gene target failure"? They use the term (or "SGTF") a lot, but don't seem to define it, as far as I can tell.

The articles below may help - its essentially how they use PCR tests to determine its almost certainly Omicron and not delta. If the S gene in the virus is missing - its almost certainly Omicron.

So its a tool for isolating such cases quickly without the need for more time consuming full genomic sequencing.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-ukhsa-update-on-omicron-risk-assessment-and-s-gene-target-failure/

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-is-the-uk-testing-for-the-omicron-variant-12482173

 

[FallingAwake]

3 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

The articles below may help - its essentially how they use PCR tests to determine its almost certainly Omicron and not delta. If the S gene in the virus is missing - its almost certainly Omicron.

So its a tool for isolating such cases quickly without the need for more time consuming full genomic sequencing.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-ukhsa-update-on-omicron-risk-assessment-and-s-gene-target-failure/

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-is-the-uk-testing-for-the-omicron-variant-12482173

 

Thanks.

[Timm]

Just now, FallingAwake said:

 The latest Omicron data is here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview

Anyone know what they mean by "S-gene target failure"? They use the term (or "SGTF") a lot, but don't seem to define it, as far as I can tell.

It means:

Omicron does not flip the S-gene switch [target / test]

The test for Covid looks for several targets / switches.

When they do their test for Covid, they get positive results in 3 areas for Delta, but only in 2 areas for Omicron. The same was true (the same S-gene test came up negative) when they were testing for the Alpha variant, but that variant is pretty much gone / dead now.

[FallingAwake]

1 minute ago, Timm said:

It means:

Omicron does not flip the S-gene switch [target / test]

The test for Covid looks for several targets / switches.

When they do their test for Covid, they get positive results in 3 areas for Delta, but only in 2 areas for Omicron. The same was true (the same S-gene test came up negative) when they were testing for the Alpha variant, but that variant is pretty much gone / dead now.

I see, thanks.

[Ignorantbliss]

It's an anecdote but our kids school gives an idea of how quickly infections can escalate (100 pupils, rural location in Aberdeenshire).

Start of the week just a couple of known cases.  As of today (sunday) it looks like about 60% of the kids are positive going by reports from parents, the school etc.  Due to the spike in infection, school has now been closed for the rest of the year with classes reverting to online format for the last two days of term for those not in isolation.  Our kids are positive (adults not, so far..) but no indication from the PCR results if Omicron is the culprit.  Repeat this in other schools and you can see how the infection rate could escalate quickly out of any possible control.

[Timm]

2 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

It's an anecdote but our kids school gives an idea of how quickly infections can escalate (100 pupils, rural location in Aberdeenshire).

Start of the week just a couple of known cases.  As of today (sunday) it looks like about 60% of the kids are positive going by reports from parents, the school etc.  Due to the spike in infection, school has now been closed for the rest of the year with classes reverting to online format for the last two days of term for those not in isolation.  Our kids are positive (adults not, so far..) but no indication from the PCR results if Omicron is the culprit.  Repeat this in other schools and you can see how the infection rate could escalate quickly out of any possible control.

Did you post something similar before?

If not, someone else posted something almost identical a day or two (or three) ago.

There was a slight difference, in that the part that I have highlighted in italics was not present.

 

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Was thinking about this afternoon. Did a bit of man-in-the-pub evolutionary theory 😜

Wouldn't it  be more 'interested' in evolving to be more infectious, to be able to reinfect, perhaps even debilitate and make people vulnerable to reinfection ?  In comparison with those qualities surely it would be a lot less 'interested' in whether it killed 2% vs 1% ? Also presumably it would be relatively indifferent to peoples lives being shortened by a couple of decades - say a 40 year old who lived to 60 instead of 80 due to subtle post-infection complications. Perhaps even 'desirable' to the virus if it meant increased vulnerability to reinfection.

Its also interesting that unlike normal flu  Covid has spread through superspreader events, ie it targets a peculiarity of how humans relate to each other.  Again wouldn't it be (relatively) not be too bothered how many people are holed up in hospital ?

Something that kills in the distant future is unlikely to be affected (well until modern medicine appears on the scene and puts a lot of effort in to wiping it out). I'm guessing but I'd have thought a virus that would have that effect is likely to be nasty short term though. Mind you some diseases take a long time before they finish people off, so maybe not. The difference between 1% and 2% would indeed be negligible I'd have thought though.

Debilitating effects would slowly work against it in the long run I'd have thought, although the evolutionary pressure probably wouldn't be that high; it would likely have the same effect as killing people off. The healthier a person feels the more likely they are to be wandering around spreading viruses, so as few effects as possible and for as long as possible is an evolutionary advantage to a virus.

Anything that stops the infected person contacting other people is a negative consequence for a virus, whether that's because that person dies or because no-one wants to go near someone ill, or because that person doesn't feel like moving much. Indeed it might be the case that feeling crap and thus not moving much is an evolutionary outcome that prevents disease spreading, since we can do that even with fairly mild diseases like colds. I agree that people holed up in hospitals might counteract that somewhat, but people just staying at home in bed instead of mingling with others is a typical outcome. Even in hospitals they may well encounted fewer people than normal (and hospitals try to take measures, with varying degrees of success).

 

[Ignorantbliss]

3 minutes ago, Timm said:

Did you post something similar before?

If not, someone else posted something almost identical a day or two (or three) ago.

There was a slight difference, in that the part that I have highlighted in italics was not present.

 

Yep, wrote that previous one.  Difference from last time is that got better grasp on the numbers now and they formally closed the school this afternoon - before this, they were planning to open as usual with parents given discretion to stop kids attending. 

Still amazed at how quick it's erupted this time.  Been sporadic infections in the school over the year, but they have always faded away quickly without any major incident - something is very different this time.

[Timm]

Hi Mods.

There are some anecdotal Covid posts on this thread which I (and others) have replied to.

Do you think there is room for an anecdotal (Covid) thread?

 

(Please don't merge the two Covid threads - they seem to appeal to different people.)

Edited December 20, 2021 by Timm
self reported to the Mods

[Timm]

18 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Yep, wrote that previous one.  Difference from last time is that got better grasp on the numbers now and they formally closed the school this afternoon - before this, they were planning to open as usual with parents given discretion to stop kids attending. 

Still amazed at how quick it's erupted this time.  Been sporadic infections in the school over the year, but they have always faded away quickly without any major incident - something is very different this time.

Thanks for replying.

In our village school, we have had (copied from what you say):  "sporadic infections in the school over the year, but they have always faded away quickly without any major incident."

But we have had no reported infection in the last week.

Edited December 20, 2021 by Timm

[Grayphil]

9 hours ago, gruffydd said:

There is strong evidence to suggest there is a genetic component, sadly... a bit of a lottery. 

U mean how the Chinese just aren't affected..

Unless all their stats are wrong, there is actually a small percentage chance, that something very sinister has taken place 

I haven't thought this way until the last couple of weeks 

Things maybe aren't adding up the way they should.

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, slawek said:

It takes around 2 week for the vaccine to work. They started the booster program a few days ago. The peak is going to happen in 1-2 weeks, in some parts of London is likely just happening. Most people will not benefit from the booster.

None of this is true..

It's now 7 days for the booster to take effect. (Says science apparently)

And the booster program has been going for ages..

I think nearly 50% of people have already had.

Why do you always push the frothing at the mouth worst case scenario.

You used to say that it kills at least 1.5% of all people who get it.. do you still peddle those lies?

[Orb]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

U mean how the Chinese just aren't affected..

Unless all their stats are wrong, there is actually a small percentage chance, that something very sinister has taken place 

I haven't thought this way until the last couple of weeks 

Things maybe aren't adding up the way they should.

My best mate's wife is Chinese, and she's on Skype to her parents every other day. We discussed China and Covid, and I made some joke about everybody being welded shut into their homes. Though the truth isn't quite that brutal, it's quite staggering how it's being handled. 

According to her, the authorities are mega aggressive at isolating individual cases. In her parents' town, one person tested positive in an office block with hundreds of people working there. The whole block was locked down. Nobody was allowed to enter or leave. A team of medics arrived in hazmat suits and carted the poor sod away, apparently to an isolated hospital room until they recover. 

Compare that with the UK, and it's easy to see how China appear to have a grip on it. When Omicron arrives it'll be interesting to see if they lose their grip. 

[clarkey]

3 hours ago, Orb said:

My best mate's wife is Chinese, and she's on Skype to her parents every other day. We discussed China and Covid, and I made some joke about everybody being welded shut into their homes. Though the truth isn't quite that brutal, it's quite staggering how it's being handled. 

According to her, the authorities are mega aggressive at isolating individual cases. In her parents' town, one person tested positive in an office block with hundreds of people working there. The whole block was locked down. Nobody was allowed to enter or leave. A team of medics arrived in hazmat suits and carted the poor sod away, apparently to an isolated hospital room until they recover. 

Compare that with the UK, and it's easy to see how China appear to have a grip on it. When Omicron arrives it'll be interesting to see if they lose their grip. 

Suspect they will just tighten their grip rather than lose face

[slawek]

6 hours ago, Timm said:

Yeah, but that's not what you said.

Anyway, it's not about you and me, it about the stats. Looking at what they say on the daily summary, you are right: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

"Cases by date reported

UK total

By nation

Number of cases (people who have had at least one positive COVID-19 test result) by date reported."

Apologies if I was not clear. I will be more precise in the future.

[slawek]

4 hours ago, Grayphil said:

None of this is true..

It's now 7 days for the booster to take effect. (Says science apparently)

And the booster program has been going for ages..

I think nearly 50% of people have already had.

Why do you always push the frothing at the mouth worst case scenario.

You used to say that it kills at least 1.5% of all people who get it.. do you still peddle those lies?

I meant the accelerated booster program.

Please send me a link to research that 7 days is enough.

I always said around 1% IFR. Still waiting for you to send me a quote of my previous post in which allegedly claimed 1.5% IFR. 

[slawek]

5 hours ago, Timm said:

Hi Mods.

There are some anecdotal Covid posts on this thread which I (and others) have replied to.

Do you think there is room for an anecdotal (Covid) thread?

 

(Please don't merge the two Covid threads - they seem to appeal to different people.)

I would prefer to have them on this thread.  Many reports about people getting ill will be an earlier signal that the wave peaked.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 hours ago, Grayphil said:

U mean how the Chinese just aren't affected..

Unless all their stats are wrong, there is actually a small percentage chance, that something very sinister has taken place 

I haven't thought this way until the last couple of weeks 

Things maybe aren't adding up the way they should.

 

Genetics and general health.

On general health, the only tales of young people (under 35) I have heard of getting ill in my area have come from statements by fat old people with comorbidities trying to scare everyone into wearing masks even outside.

I'm older than 35 (dare I saw middle aged) and I know my resistance to C19 is very high. I've been exposed loads of times and not had even a sniffle. I put this down to a lot of prior exposure to similar things, having travelled frequently across the world.

 

[henry the king]

Demark data showing Omicron hospitalisations down from 1.5% to 0.6% with Omicron.

This is the same data that a few weeks ago was being paraded around to show Omicron was as dangerous as Delta. Well, more data has since come out, and it now is looking good. 

The evidence is now very very very strong. 

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1472691431336726535/photo/1

And this isn't due to immunity because its all in the last period. And the lines are diverging more as time goes on suggesting this could even under-estimate how much more mild Omicron is.

This is also only hospitalisations. We know from SA that people stay in hospital way shorter with Omicron. 

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Genetics and general health.

On general health, the only tales of young people (under 35) I have heard of getting ill in my area have come from statements by fat old people with comorbidities trying to scare everyone into wearing masks even outside.

I'm older than 35 (dare I saw middle aged) and I know my resistance to C19 is very high. I've been exposed loads of times and not had even a sniffle. I put this down to a lot of prior exposure to similar things, having travelled frequently across the world.

 

Not your usual fact based comment.

You can’t possibly know your resistance to covid outside keeping fit in general 

I know two fit youngsters who were positive last week. The good news is in both cases mild so fits the narrative of a weaker strain 

[Bob8]

7 hours ago, Timm said:

Hi Mods.

There are some anecdotal Covid posts on this thread which I (and others) have replied to.

Do you think there is room for an anecdotal (Covid) thread?

 

(Please don't merge the two Covid threads - they seem to appeal to different people.)

Perhaps also another split.

Many on here make things up and live in a fantasy land, and are perhaps vulnerable to being told that it is not real. Perhaps they could have their own thread and us normal people would leave them to it?

[henry the king]

What we know:

• Omicron much less likely to put people in Hospital in Demark than other variants over the last 4 weeks. The gap is increasing week to week currently.
• In SA, people much less likely to go to hospital with Omicron, but the main effect is they are all leaving hospital way faster
• We have a biological reason for this - Omicron is much much worse at infecting the lungs, which is the main cause of severe disease. This is the key finding that ties together all the data.
• We have more immunity than ever. 50% of adults boosted. Maybe 50% who have had vaccine AND virus, which we know gives very good immunity against Omicron.
• SA has had Omicron going on for probably 5-6 weeks now and without restrictions their hospital system - which collapsed in previous waves - has been totally fine. Something is HUGELY different this time.
• The peak has potentially been reached in SA's epicentre and may even be getting there for London. So the peak is short and sharp, and then it goes down. Because it is so transmissible and so mild. 

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

I meant the accelerated booster program.

Please send me a link to research that 7 days is enough.

I always said around 1% IFR. Still waiting for you to send me a quote of my previous post in which allegedly claimed 1.5% IFR. 

You get most of the immunity after 7 days from the booster and all of it after about 2 weeks.

I saw that on either the BBC or another media like CNN

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Genetics and general health.

On general health, the only tales of young people (under 35) I have heard of getting ill in my area have come from statements by fat old people with comorbidities trying to scare everyone into wearing masks even outside.

I'm older than 35 (dare I saw middle aged) and I know my resistance to C19 is very high. I've been exposed loads of times and not had even a sniffle. I put this down to a lot of prior exposure to similar things, having travelled frequently across the world.

 

Two young women I know (one 27 and the other 31) caught Covid in 2020 and weren’t that ill but had long Covid symptoms that affected their chests for months afterwards.

These are people I know and talked to about it, not rumours.

I am neither fat, old nor do I have comorbidities 😉

[slawek]

Just now, scottbeard said:

You get most of the immunity after 7 days from the booster and all of it after about 2 weeks.

I saw that on either the BBC or another media like CNN

Would you kindly send me a link to a research? I am not saying this is not true but I would want firm evidence.