Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[slawek]

2 minutes ago, Timm said:

I'm not sure that is 100% true. 

There are lots of people that hd their booster in time for their encounters with Omicron.

I am one of them.

It takes around 2 week for the vaccine to work. They started the booster program a few days ago. The peak is going to happen in 1-2 weeks, in some parts of London is likely just happening. Most people will not benefit from the booster.

[skinnylattej]

43 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

4,000 words a day... citing lots of horrendously tedious bits of research. Not much fun. 

4,000 words a day, if that's a lit review, then it's a real hard slog.

Hopefully it something a bit more interesting.

[Timm]

5 minutes ago, slawek said:

It takes around 2 week for the vaccine to work. They started the booster program a few days ago. The peak is going to happen in 1-2 weeks, in some parts of London is likely just happening. Most people will not benefit from the booster.

No, that is not true.

I had my booster 17 days ago.

My parents were weeks before me.

NB. I am talking about the booster program. I think you may be talking about the turbo booster program. If so, you should say so.

But yes, most people will not benefit from the booster in this wave.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Timm

[MARTINX9]

2 hours ago, anonguest said:

Where does it say he was vocal about not getting vaccinated?  Being against, say, a vaccine mandate is not the same thing as being opposed to being vaccinated personally

Exactly. The issue is about whether you think it should be a personal choice to take a medical intervention. You may make that choice yourself but don’t believe the state should force others to who don’t wish to. Because it’s a slippery slope to other mandated government medical intervention -  where does that end?

What is even more vile though is the implied tone that somehow he - and others - deserved to die because they hadn’t  been vaccinated or even now because they opposed vaccine mandates and the right of an individual to control and decide what goes in their bodies. A right enshrined for decades by medical practitioners but now seemingly to be abandoned as favoured by them.

Do these people also believe smokers who die a horrible death from pancreatic cancer or lung cancer deserved to die? Or alcoholics who die a painful death from liver failure.

What sort of society have we become with this ‘they deserved to die’ attitude?

Edited December 19, 2021 by MARTINX9

[pig]

1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said:

Exactly. The issue is about whether you think it should be a personal choice to take a medical intervention. You may make that choice yourself but don’t believe the state should force others to who don’t wish to. Because it’s a slippery slope to other force state medical intervention.

What is even more vile though is the implied tone that somehow he deserved to die because he hadn’t  been vaccinated or even because he opposed vaccine mandates.

Do these people also believe smokers who die a horrible death from pancreatic cancer or lung cancer deserve to die.

What sort of society have we become with this ‘they deserved to die’ attitude?

Bad but not quite as bad as the  ‘dead wood’ meme where the old, vulnerable etc must be sacrificed to avoid inconveniencing the rest.

[Clarky Cat]

20 minutes ago, Timm said:

 

Are you saying that once you have been infected once, any re-infections won 't show up in the stats?

 

Yes - I think this is correct for all nations aside from Wales and I'm surprised it hasn't been publicised more widely. The significant number of reinfections occurring with Omicron will not be reported in the cases update on the dashboard.

"COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive (except for rapid lateral flow tests which have negative confirmatory lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours), this is referred to as a case. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales."

[MARTINX9]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

Bad but not quite as bad as the  ‘dead wood’ meme where the old, vulnerable etc must be sacrificed to avoid inconveniencing the rest.

Who again said that?

We can protect the elderly and shield them without denying kids the right to an education or young people the right to work, study and socialise?

I expect many elderly would agree with that - they are those kids grandparents after all!

If there is no economy or tax revenue there will eventually be no NHS or certainly a poorer version of one. It’s not an either or - they see linked. We have spent the equivalent of the annual NHS budget for three years on the cost of lockdowns. How much more can we afford?

 

[Timm]

1 minute ago, Clarky Cat said:

Yes - I think this is correct for all nations aside from Wales and I'm surprised it hasn't been publicised more widely. The significant number of reinfections occurring with Omicron will not be reported in the cases update on the dashboard.

"COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive (except for rapid lateral flow tests which have negative confirmatory lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours), this is referred to as a case. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales."

I'd read that before, but I thought it meant that if you had a latty flow test and then a PCR, that only counted as one case. But I suppose statistics don't have brains. If there is no cut off period, it would mean you could only be counted once.

[pig]

1 hour ago, byron78 said:

Yes, quite.

I'm ancient and can't see the issue with anivaxxers myself.

Let em die.

 

Aren’t they more likely to pass on the disease ?

Also what about their crimes against music ?

:

[pig]

3 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Who again said that?

We can protect the elderly and shield them without denying kids the right to an education or young people the right to work, study and socialise?

I expect many elderly would agree with that - they are those kids grandparents after all!

If there is no economy or tax revenue there will eventually be no NHS or certainly a poorer version of one. It’s not an either or - they see linked. We have spent the equivalent of the annual NHS budget for three years on the cost of lockdowns. How much more can we afford?

 

Absolutely: it’s either public health and economy or neither.

[Casual-observer]

12 minutes ago, pig said:

Absolutely: it’s either public health and economy or neither.

Except it isn't as there are plenty of people out there clamouring for more lockdown, Sage included. 

You and they don't appear to want to accept the brutal reality of the situation, when a novel virus arrives somebody's going to cash in early. The ultimate answer to that is bad luck.

What we have here is an unrealistic middle class playing politics acting as if everything can and should be hunky dory. 

That is simply an unrealistic view point of life but unfortunately we also have a same middle class clique with one eye on the inevitable inquiry to COVID. 

You don't fight and win battles in hunky dory environments, in the end many battles simply get won by pure blood and guts. 

If we end up with packed out hospitals then so be it, eventually the crisis will pass as any crisis inevitable passes. 

What you don't do however  is this current situation of killing off vast swathes of the economy via death by committee. There's a price on everything and if dead elders is the price then in the end that's the price otherwise the price of far bigger consequences trying to achieve the impossible will overtake you anyway. 

[henry the king]

1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

Not according to this: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/

The only real data we have from the UK. Which studies are you referencing? 

Oddly, the people I know with Covid are only suffering upper resp tract infection (very badly but not in lower lungs), which made me wonder whether this mutation is behaving differently vis-a-vis the lungs. So there may well be something in what you are referencing... mind you, who knows... perhaps it simply takes longer to migrate to lower lung. 

But we do know. Because the biology has been discovered. And this isn't modelling data with 10000 variables all of which could be confounding, thus making the whole thing more of an act of belief than an act of science.

This is pure science. 

We know now, from two independent studies, that it infects the lungs way way worse. We know this attacking of the lungs is linked to severe disease.

It is all coming together to show Omicron is intrinsically less severe. SA hospitals STILL not being in trouble. And now some biology to back that up.

 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

12 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Except it isn't as there are plenty of people out there clamouring for more lockdown, Sage included. 

You and they don't appear to want to accept the brutal reality of the situation, when a novel virus arrives somebody's going to cash in early. The ultimate answer to that is bad luck.

What we have here is an unrealistic middle class playing politics acting as if everything can and should be hunky dory. 

That is simply an unrealistic view point of life but unfortunately we also have a same middle class clique with one eye on the inevitable inquiry to COVID. 

You don't fight and win battles in hunky dory environments, in the end many battles simply get won by pure blood and guts. 

If we end up with packed out hospitals then so be it, eventually the crisis will pass as any crisis inevitable passes. 

What you don't do however  is this current situation of killing off vast swathes of the economy via death by committee. There's a price on everything and if dead elders is the price then in the end that's the price otherwise the price of far bigger consequences trying to achieve the impossible will overtake you anyway. 

I wonder though... perhaps this is the opportunity to reconfigure the economy... hospitality is, what? 3% of UK productivity? It is pretty marginal really. Pay these businesses to innovate their way out. Who else is impacted? Surely there are as many opportunities as there are victims. 

Politicians and journos think we all live in the local boozers... they do of course... most of us stopped visiting the local pub about 20 years ago. As for restaurants and coffee shops. Who really cares if we eat in the restaurant or get a carry out (the landlords do of course). 

Vast swathes of the economy... the real value adders are if anything provided with an opportunity to thrive on the back of this. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Because they know they'll be in even more trouble if Omicron turns out to benign but protective, so they need to get everyone jabbed so they'll think they've been saved by BJ and his jabs.

According to a study reported in The Telegraph, being over 80 and jabbed led to more rule breaking than young ravers. All I can say is hypocritical old gits

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/19/older-people-break-covid-rules-young-worry-less-future/

Quote

Older people break Covid rules more than the young because they worry less about the future

A study showed younger people who went to raves in breach of restrictions broke fewer Covid guidelines than single-vaccinated 80-year-olds

Older people break lockdown mixing rules more than the younger generation because they are less worried about the future, according to a new study.

Scientists from the University of Kent found that younger people who went to raves in breach of lockdown restrictions earlier this year broke fewer Covid guidelines than single-vaccinated 80-year-olds.

While clubbers wore face masks and regularly washed their hands on the dance floor, those in their eighties carried on mixing in households without wearing a mask, breaking more restrictions.

The findings are linked to the outlook those over 80 years old have on their future lives.

Researchers said it was a case of older people being less concerned about the future, whereas the partygoers felt more responsibility as they had longer left to live.

They found more than 50 percent of those attending raves complied with the recommended Covid guidelines by wearing face coverings and regularly washing their hands when partying.

 

[Oliver Sutton]

13 minutes ago, henry the king said:

But we do know. Because the biology has been discovered. And this isn't modelling data with 10000 variables all of which could be confounding, thus making the whole thing more of an act of belief than an act of science.

This is pure science. 

We know now, from two independent studies, that it infects the lungs way way worse. We know this attacking of the lungs is linked to severe disease.

It is all coming together to show Omicron is intrinsically less severe. SA hospitals STILL not being in trouble. And now some biology to back that up.

 

Doctor John covers it here. Still optimistic about Omicron.

 

 

[Casual-observer]

11 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

I wonder though... perhaps this is the opportunity to reconfigure the economy... hospitality is, what? 3% of UK productivity? It is pretty marginal really. Pay these businesses to innovate their way out. Who else is impacted? Surely there are as many opportunities as there are victims. 

Politicians and journos think we all live in the local boozers... they do of course... most of us stopped visiting the local pub about 20 years ago. As for restaurants and coffee shops. Who really cares if we eat in the restaurant or get a carry out (the landlords do of course). 

Vast swathes of the economy... the real value adders are if anything provided with an opportunity to thrive on the back of this. 

How do you innovate running a gym, a pub, a restaurant, a nightclub, a barbers, a local butchers. 

These places ultimately need footfall and bums in seats. 

Neither can you base your entire economy on the premise no one leaves their house?    

 

[dances with sheeple]

On 18/12/2021 at 19:08, Oliver Sutton said:

Part and parcel of living in a big city.

Indeed, especially a slum like London.

[PeanutButter]

In pub making most of freedom. Cheers all

[MARTINX9]

9 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Doctor John covers it here. Still optimistic about Omicron.

 

 

Maybe the PM should hire Dr John - he is a far better communicator than the official spokespeople the government puts up!

[MARTINX9]

1 minute ago, PeanutButter said:

In pub making most of freedom. Cheers all

Lucky you are not in Ireland - you would have been chucked out at 8pm. Omicron gets more virulent as the clock strikes 8pm in Cork and Dublin.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, Timm said:

No, that is not true.

I had my booster 17 days ago.

My parents were weeks before me.

NB. I am talking about the booster program. I think you may be talking about the turbo booster program. If so, you should say so.

But yes, most people will not benefit from the booster in this wave.

I meant the turbo booster program. I've made my comment in the context of the SAGE quote.

""The acceleration of the booster vaccination programme will not affect transmission and severe and mild disease in time to mitigate these hospitalisations for the rest of 2021 (high confidence).""

[PeanutButter]

Just now, MARTINX9 said:

Lucky you are not in Ireland - you would have been chucked out at 8pm. Omicron gets more virulent as the clock strikes 8pm in Cork and Dublin.

Last orders 9pm. It’s dead quiet bar a group of youfs. Pretty pleased I stuck my head in the door (mask on) to check. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

11 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

How do you innovate running a gym, a pub, a restaurant, a nightclub, a barbers, a local butchers. 

These places ultimately need footfall and bums in seats. 

Neither can you base your entire economy on the premise no one leaves their house?    

 

For food you shift to delivery. One local restaurant did this and made so much cash they've closed the restaurant permanently. A butcher? The same... the big thing is delivery these days, and curated food or whatever they call it... nightclubs? What's that? 0.1% of the economy? Gyms? Difficult but some do online training these days... a barbers... clearly a need. 

Significant adjustment is possible... for one thing I don't want to support a business model that might no longer be valid... many of these businesses are marginal at best. Nightclubs don't seem to have been thriving for years... move with the times. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

7 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Lucky you are not in Ireland - you would have been chucked out at 8pm. Omicron gets more virulent as the clock strikes 8pm in Cork and Dublin.

That isn't the point... they just aim to cut the time people are socialising for, which in turns cuts infection rates. That's the idea, anyway. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

21 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Doctor John covers it here. Still optimistic about Omicron.

 

 

Let's revisit this in a month.