dpg50000 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, msi said: Evergrande: Struggling firm to raise $1.5bn as debt payment looms Chinese property giant Evergrande has said it is selling a $1.5bn (£1.1bn) stake it owns in a commercial bank, as it scrambles to raise money owed to customers, investors and suppliers. The almost 20% stake in Shengjing Bank is being bought by a state-owned asset management company. It comes after Evergrande missed a bond interest payment last week. The cash-strapped company also faces a deadline on Wednesday for another bond interest payment of $47.5m. So, basically a bailout for Evergrande. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tep1 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: So, basically a bailout for Evergrande. Arent they selling assets to pay bond holders? How is that a bailout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, tep1 said: Arent they selling assets to pay bond holders? How is that a bailout Because the only buyer is the state. If they had to sell to private firms, the price would likely be lower (if, indeed, there was any interest at all). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tep1 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 CHINA EVERGRANDE SHARES SUSPENDED IN HONG KONG https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/evergrande-property-management-unit-suspend-hong-kong-trading?sref=frV97TwV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robson1111 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 On 9/29/2021 at 9:48 AM, dpg50000 said: Because the only buyer is the state. If they had to sell to private firms, the price would likely be lower (if, indeed, there was any interest at all). How do you know that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robson1111 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 must confess I do not care about evergrande Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, robson1111 said: must confess I do not care about evergrande Thanks for that insightful point - do we need to care about your posts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 1 hour ago, robson1111 said: must confess I do not care about evergrande Did you come to the evergrande thread just to post that then?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 (edited) China’s Model of Dictated Economic Growth Blew Up by Wolf Richter • Oct 17, 2021 What’s left of the debt-fueled property speculation that drove growth is a huge explosive mess and an enormous amount of debt. (an estimated) '108 million flats under construction' ....property developers now selling some for under half price https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/17/the-wolf-street-report-chinas-model-of-dictated-economic-growth-blew-up/ Praxis Explosion Opening Scene evergrande effect on london property ...2.15m in Could Evergrande Impact Global Property Prices? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHJM3qrJKO8 Evergrande Got a Clean Bill of Health From PWC Months Before Collapse https://youtu.be/gHnTvH_ynR0 Edited October 18, 2021 by Saving For a Space Ship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 China Bond Market Collapses & Property Developers Drop like Fly's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Chinese developer Sinic defaults as Evergrande deadline looms https://californianewstimes.com/chinese-developer-sinic-defaults-as-evergrande-deadline-looms/563225/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 23 hours ago, Timm said: Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event. A bailout would be followed by a crackdown on leverage by the Chinese Government, which would be deflationary The failure could lead to a wider credit crunch which would be deflationary...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 19/10/2021 at 00:12, Timm said: Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event. One can argue it both ways. A bailout of Evergrande avoids their assets being priced by the market - which would have been deflationary - so this makes it an inflationary event. The bailout of Everfrande means they are less creditworthy - as they now have less assets... and, given the scale at which they had previously been borrowing and spending... this makes it deflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event - if their assets were to be sold on the open market as it would suppress the market values of similar assets. The failure of Evergrande would be an inflationary event - if the upshot was that new investors would be coerced to borrow even more money from banks to take on Evergrandes assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 China’s Evergrande crisis: clock ticking as crucial debt default deadline looms A default by the property giant could have far-reaching consequences for China and the global economy https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/20/china-evergrande-group-crisis-clock-ticking-as-crucial-debt-deadline-looms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 (edited) If this company is going under, surely the assets that they are trying to sell now can be expected to drop in value in the future. In that case it is probably better to wait a while before buying them...the deflationary spiral described previously in these pages. If the Chinese Govt step in and bail them out, a prop is placed under the prices of these assets...for now. Much like the past 13 years in the west. Edited October 20, 2021 by Roman Roady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 19/10/2021 at 00:12, Timm said: Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event. Hello Timm I do not think it is simply binary or linear. Inflation/deflation can take many forms. The particular situation we are in the moment is driven nearly exclusively by China. The BOE and FED still do not want to recognise this and are still in denial. Evergrande is not an important issue in isolation, but it is the reason this has come about and the situation throughout the entire market. This is the start of a credit crunch which will be more global taking longer and being much deeper than the credit crunch of 2009 which was down to some bad lending practices and naughty behaviour of the banks. The CCP will control the demise of Evergrande for their own purposes and "the good of stability in the market" but Evergrande will cease to exist. It could be the case that: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event for the property market and assets generally. A bailout of Evergrande would be a deflationary event for consumables and exports The CCP are in a consolidation phase where they are isolating from the world and are looking to hoard as much of the world’s resources as they can for their own internal market. They no longer need the west. At the same time the west has trashed their currencies and have got into an unsustainable debt spiral. We are only seeing the very early stages of this but by just extrapolating forward the slightly annoying supply chain problems we are having now it is terrifying to try and imagine what we will see in the years to come. As always, only time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: Hello Timm I do not think it is simply binary or linear. Inflation/deflation can take many forms. The particular situation we are in the moment is driven nearly exclusively by China. The BOE and FED still do not want to recognise this and are still in denial. Evergrande is not an important issue in isolation, but it is the reason this has come about and the situation throughout the entire market. This is the start of a credit crunch which will be more global taking longer and being much deeper than the credit crunch of 2009 which was down to some bad lending practices and naughty behaviour of the banks. The CCP will control the demise of Evergrande for their own purposes and "the good of stability in the market" but Evergrande will cease to exist. It could be the case that: A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event for the property market and assets generally. A bailout of Evergrande would be a deflationary event for consumables and exports The CCP are in a consolidation phase where they are isolating from the world and are looking to hoard as much of the world’s resources as they can for their own internal market. They no longer need the west. At the same time the west has trashed their currencies and have got into an unsustainable debt spiral. We are only seeing the very early stages of this but by just extrapolating forward the slightly annoying supply chain problems we are having now it is terrifying to try and imagine what we will see in the years to come. As always, only time will tell. Excellent post, this site at its best. Keep it up along with @Timm & thanks for sharing your thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: They no longer need the west. Sure they don't 26 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: At the same time the west has trashed their currencies and have got into an unsustainable debt spiral. Because China is any different? Ask Chinese people the confidence they have in the RMB, pretty sure it is much lower than the West. Other than that, yes troubles ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeAlone2 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 So Hopson Development won't be buying a stake in Evergrande property services unit after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, Freki said: Sure they don't Because China is any different? Ask Chinese people the confidence they have in the RMB, pretty sure it is much lower than the West. Other than that, yes troubles ahead country public debt (billion USD) % of GDP World 56,308 64% United States* 17,607 74% Japan 9,872 214% China 3,894 32% The US owes China around $1.1 trillion USD as of 2021 China owns £57 billion of FTSE 100 share mainly made up of a 49% stake in HSBC China owns £143 billion in UK assets many of them strategic. China owns the west, infact they own much of the world. If when China has a downturn the west collapses. It does not matter what the Chinese people think, they are under total control by the CCP. We are in very frightening times. Edited October 20, 2021 by Flat Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Flat Bear said: country public debt (billion USD) % of GDP World 56,308 64% United States* 17,607 74% Japan 9,872 214% China 3,894 32% The US owes China around $1.1 trillion USD as of 2021 China owns £57 billion of FTSE 100 share mainly made up of a 49% stake in HSBC China owns £143 billion in UK assets many of them strategic. China owns the west, infact they own much of the world. If when China has a downturn the west collapses. It does not matter what the Chinese people think, they are under total control by the CCP. We are in very frightening times. Try this Edited October 20, 2021 by Freki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 China Evergrande shares fall sharply after $2.6bn asset sale falls through ‘No guarantee’ Chinese property giant can meet its $305bn debts, starting with a deadline on Monday that could trigger default https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/21/china-evergrande-shares-fall-sharply-after-26bn-asset-sale-falls-through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coypondboy Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Start of an October crash on Monday 25th if evergrande defaults, lots of speculators ready to press the sell button thanks to the wonders of day trading and the internet could be like last year when virus started spreading, FTSE fell 10% in a day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 How many UK properties have been bought up by Chinese investors and how many of these will need to be sold to pay back their creditors? Will this spook other foreign investors into selling up as well and would this be enough to cause a complete reversal of supply vs demand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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