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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by tep1

  1. haha heres hoping for those numbers after the crash so I can afford all of them.
  2. The deluded middle classes driven purely by how much their houses are worth, somewhat forget hpi doesnt make you wealthy unless you've got multiple homes and are living debt free. I've concluded hpc will benefit society broadly with a better cost of living for the working classes and increase social cohesion. If it wipes out a few smug middle class homeowners overleveraged on debt in the process then let it be a lesson.
  3. I've been tracking surrey 4+ bedroom houses for many years as an forecast indicator of the wider market since its the premium end of the middle class housing market. What I've found the numbers always fluctuates between 1000 and 1500 depending on how good/bad the wider housing market is doing. As a crude metric I've found that in very good times stock for sale will drop below 1000 and in very bad times rises above 1500. In the last 6 months stock for sale has gone from 800 -> 1400.
  4. Indian resources are vastly poor in comparison to European equivalents. Its the quality v quantity debate. Resource costs look inviting on a per head comparison but the consequence is usually more resources are required to overcome the quality gap. In my experience indian companies overpromise and most always underdeliver.
  5. Ah the good ole Brexit free market tripe that was banded about as a benefit. But the tories were only ever concerned about making labor a free market. All other markets are cornered thanks to lobbyists and kickbacks to politicians. Immigration numbers will go through the roof in the new post brexit landscape to ensure labor costs are kept to a minimum and employee rights continue to race to the bottom. <sarcasm>But thats ok the proletariat can all afford to be out of work because house wealth pays them to do so. </sarcasm>
  6. Chinese City to Confiscate 39 Evergrande Buildings: Hainan Daily
  7. Maybe they know what is coming. Lots of rumors about that Russia will default on USD bonds in retaliation. War is no longer won on the battlefield it seems.
  8. March 16th is the date of the next Fed meeting, right? I am hearing that will be the date Russia will default on their USD bonds. What would that mean for any future interest rate decision?
  9. In my younger years when i could handle the stress of trading maybe I would have a different answer for you. But now i have a fulltime job, kids and other hobbies, its far easier to pick a stock based on eps and dividend yield and let income and hopefully the capital gain return over defined time. I find this approach (Warren Buffet's also) over time the most successful. I have screening tools to inform me on the best turnaround stock picks. But energy and commodity miners are best at present. But as the say you are your own destiny - the very best of luck to you sir!
  10. WisdomTree ETFs. They do every commodity. But they dont offer a dividend like owning a share in a miner. cna, bp/shell, fresnillo, kenmare resources aviva looks good for a decent future dividend yield
  11. You mean exacerbate the problem by going out and buying anyway.
  12. Imagine a job where you get paid half a million a year just to sit around talking to people about what you actually intend to do!
  13. I have a bunker in the back garden. When the wife goes nuclear that is where I hide. Putin has nothing on her!
  14. I blame stupid emotional people overburdening themselves with debt for the fear of missing out on easing gains they can never realize!
  15. Precisely this. People will put off spending and the economy will weaken. The markets have already baked an interest rate rise in for March and furthermore over the course of this year. What happens if they don't? Then expect more inflation. It will spiral.
  16. Only companies have earnings that are distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends.
  17. Your honest opinion is more than likely the right one!
  18. and looks like they aren't getting their war in Ukraine either to distract from the dismal economic situation. Are Russia trolling the US? War's are no longer fought and won by machinery in the digital economy.
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