coypondboy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) Will be interesting to see the results of the latest census next year but who thinks the real figure is higher. Some interesting comments from an economics website, not sure how accurate does anyone else have any figures based on consumption maybe the final covid 1st injections will be accurate as they do 12-16 yr olds and look at primary school registered children and births. The Covid cases site I monitor has it at 68.3 million Edited August 27, 2021 by coypondboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 hours ago, coypondboy said: Will be interesting to see the results of the latest census next year but who thinks the real figure is higher. Some interesting comments from an economics website, not sure how accurate does anyone else have any figures based on consumption maybe the final covid 1st injections will be accurate as they do 12-16 yr olds and look at primary school registered children and births. The Covid cases site I monitor has it at 68.3 million 81m phones is possible with a lowe population. I personally have 4 mobiles and the wife 2. The reason i have 4 is because 2 are the ones I actually use, of other 2 (on cheap GiffGaff sims) are a separate 2FA device for extra security and the other is a Linux based developer phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notting Hell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) Interesting thread. I have often thought that there must be some product that could provide a very good estimate for the population. It's probably something like tubes of toothpaste, nail clippers, toilet paper, paracetamol, or milk--something that is (almost) universally consumed, and if not consumed results in severe personal discomfort, or consumed in a known way that means strong lower/upper bounds can be estimated. The census only counts those who wish to be counted without any real enforcement. I would have thought the Tesco estimate is very accurate--after all they (and the other large supermarkets) are in the profit-making business of feeding the nation: they have real financial/business motivation to accurately know what the true figure is. The elephant in the room is that there is clearly some serious population-related dysfunction in the UK contributing to house price inflation. @coypondboy What is the economics website you refer to? Edited August 27, 2021 by Notting Hell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) The Guardian and the howling madmen on another thread would have the doors open forever, not satisfied until our population hits that of India. All so they can enjoy free mobile roaming while on holiday. Joking and pointing fingers at the specials aside, I did have a strange thought that maybe the governments since 2000ish didn't actually want catastrophic HPI and they just couldn't count how many people were freely travelling here and, ahem, Remaining. I know the accepted truth is that it is a vote winner (I believe it to be true) and there have been some horrendous policies aimed at pumping that bad boy that point towards it being true, but if you think you only need 1m houses yet we have got ouselves an extra 20m people then that's not going to help in the slightest. Edited August 27, 2021 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 hours ago, coypondboy said: Will be interesting to see the results of the latest census next year but who thinks the real figure is higher. Some interesting comments from an economics website, not sure how accurate does anyone else have any figures based on consumption maybe the final covid 1st injections will be accurate as they do 12-16 yr olds and look at primary school registered children and births. The Covid cases site I monitor has it at 68.3 million Not again. This is a well known conspiracy theory. "The article, written by Martin Baker in 2007, cites an anonymous source within an unnamed supermarket who, on the basis of food consumption, estimated that there were at least 80 million people living in the UK." https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/how-one-old-news-story-convinced-conspiracy-theorists-tesco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Frugality Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Notting Hell said: Interesting thread. I have often thought that there must be some product that could provide a very good estimate for the population. It's probably something like tubes of toothpaste, nail clippers, toilet paper, paracetamol, or milk--something that is (almost) universally consumed, and if not consumed results in severe personal discomfort, or consumed in a known way that means strong lower/upper bounds can be estimated. The census only counts those who wish to be counted without any real enforcement. I would have thought the Tesco estimate is very accurate--after all they (and the other large supermarkets) are in the profit-making business of feeding the nation: they have real financial/business motivation to accurately know what the true figure is. The elephant in the room is that there is clearly some serious population-related dysfunction in the UK contributing to house price inflation. @coypondboy What is the economics website you refer to? You forget we are getting as fat a population as America now Edited August 27, 2021 by Money Frugality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, slawek said: Not again. This is a well known conspiracy theory. "The article, written by Martin Baker in 2007, cites an anonymous source within an unnamed supermarket who, on the basis of food consumption, estimated that there were at least 80 million people living in the UK." https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/how-one-old-news-story-convinced-conspiracy-theorists-tesco Hmmmm. Just had a look at some of Jamie Ross' tweets to see where his positioning is on the usual suspects (he doesn't have any pronouns there which was a surprise, the rest was entirely expected), and I know what an enormous woke-frotfest Buzzfeed is without looking. If they're saying "don't worry, you haven't got too many immigrants 😉" I am inclinded to believe the 80m population estimate of the UK could be way under the actual number. Edited August 27, 2021 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Huggy said: Hmmmm. Just had a look at some of Jamie Ross' tweets to see where his positioning is on the usual suspects (he doesn't have any pronouns there which was a surprise, the rest was entirely expected), and I know what an enormous woke-frotfest Buzzfeed is without looking. If they're saying "don't worry, you haven't got too many immigrants 😉" I am inclinded to believe the 80m population estimate of the UK could be way under the actual number. The source of the Tesco number is one journo, not very well known, quoting some anonymous source. Credibility of this information is very low, especially if it is in a big disagreement with ONS or even Thames Water. https://www.thameswater.co.uk/media-library/home/about-us/regulation/water-resources/technical-report/current-and-future-demand-for-water.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Notting Hell said: there must be some product that could provide a very good estimate for the population. It's probably something like tubes of toothpaste, nail clippers, toilet paper, paracetamol, or milk--something that is (almost) universally consumed, and if not consumed results in severe personal discomfort You mean like housing? The UK is not troubled by an overabundance of dwellings, so if there really are an extra 15-20m people in the country, which buildings are they living in? Edited August 27, 2021 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Notting Hell said: Interesting thread. I have often thought that there must be some product that could provide a very good estimate for the population. It's probably something like tubes of toothpaste, nail clippers, toilet paper, paracetamol, or milk--something that is (almost) universally consumed, and if not consumed results in severe personal discomfort, or consumed in a known way that means strong lower/upper bounds can be estimated. The census only counts those who wish to be counted without any real enforcement. I would have thought the Tesco estimate is very accurate--after all they (and the other large supermarkets) are in the profit-making business of feeding the nation: they have real financial/business motivation to accurately know what the true figure is. The elephant in the room is that there is clearly some serious population-related dysfunction in the UK contributing to house price inflation. @coypondboy What is the economics website you refer to? Loo roll. Either we are shitting more or there are more ar5ses to wipe (if that is the case). Edited August 27, 2021 by IMHAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Dorkins said: You mean like housing? The UK is not troubled by an overabundance of dwellings, so if there really are an extra 15-20m people in the country, which buildings are they living in? Not troubled by an overabundance of dwellings? Maybe not in the middle of the Scottish Highlands. It's just got an even greater overabundance of people. How many are jammed in to small houses? I suppose it's traditional at least, like a huge family in a two-up two-down Victorian terrace. My guess at the best people to ask about population numbers are the water companies, or the people in them who deal with sewage. Everyone craps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notting Hell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 What characteristics should an ideal single observable for an estimate for the population have? 1. Universally consumed or produced 2. Quantifiably and consistently consumed or produced 3. Individual/personal motivation to consume or produce Sewage meets all characteristics: 1. everyone uses the toilet, 2. everyone produces a quantifiable and consistent quantity, 3. personal discomfort if you don't use the toilet. Caveat is that point 2. may be influenced by increased obesity. Water usage probably not so useful. It's mixed with industrial/commercial use, different water usage habits etc. Toothpaste is good. 1. Everyone consumes toothpaste (assumed), 2. It is used consistently and no one uses more toothpaste than necessary, 3. your teeth will drop out if you don't brush your teeth so there is motivation to consume. Housing fails on point 2. in that it is not consistently consumed, see rise of HMOs/divisibility of housing. Covid vaccinations is ok, but fails on point 1. in that it is not universally consumed. Can be combined with a vaccination rate if known. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Notting Hell said: Sewage meets all characteristics: 1. everyone uses the toilet, 2. everyone produces a quantifiable and consistent quantity, 3. personal discomfort if you don't use the toilet. Caveat is that point 2. may be influenced by increased obesity. Point 2 isn't true. Diet will heavily influence how much solid and liquid waste each person produces, also sewage includes both toilet waste and other forms of waste water e.g. from washing or cooking. What about coffin consumption? Edited August 27, 2021 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Dorkins said: Point 2 isn't true. Diet will heavily influence how much solid and liquid waste each person produces, also sewage includes both toilet waste and other forms of waste water e.g. from washing. Good point. Also need to take into account about 17.6million people crapping themselves everytime a rubber dinghy is spotted on the channel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Dorkins said: What about coffin consumption? In the long run but will be a very lagging indicator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 hours ago, coypondboy said: Will be interesting to see the results of the latest census next year but who thinks the real figure is higher. Some interesting comments from an economics website, not sure how accurate does anyone else have any figures based on consumption maybe the final covid 1st injections will be accurate as they do 12-16 yr olds and look at primary school registered children and births. The Covid cases site I monitor has it at 68.3 million That Tesco 80M figure is (very old now) bunk. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/jamieross/how-one-old-news-story-convinced-conspiracy-theorists-tesco I'd guess it's actually probably fallen from 67M as well. Half the foreigners I know (which admitedly is only doctors and dentists!) have left to live elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 I know people that say they didn't fill in the census; I don't know that many people, plus have not been in contact with as many over the pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notting Hell Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) Possible some sort of eye examination might be a good indicator. Universally, if you have an eye problem you get it sorted out. Cataracts for example, a well known % of the population will have them, and virtually all will have them removed if they do, and they can only have them removed once. So this would give you a very tight estimate, but it would lag by about 50 years (or the average age to develop cataracts). Whether the figure of 80 million or not is the basis of a 'conspiracy theory', I would be very surprised if Tesco don't have a very good estimate for the population. The point in finding an easily observable indicator is that it would then be very easy to estimate the population without relying on ONS if you are inclined to disbelieve them. Edited August 27, 2021 by Notting Hell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Notting Hell said: Universally, if you have an eye problem you get it sorted out. I wonder if people have been getting their eye problems universally sorted out over the last 18 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: 81m phones is possible with a lowe population. I personally have 4 mobiles and the wife 2. The reason i have 4 is because 2 are the ones I actually use, of other 2 (on cheap GiffGaff sims) are a separate 2FA device for extra security and the other is a Linux based developer phone. I have 3 phones, a work phone a Monday-Friday phone and a I get drunk phone that I do not mind losing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 hours ago, Notting Hell said: What characteristics should an ideal single observable for an estimate for the population have? Toothpaste is good. 1. Everyone consumes toothpaste (assumed), 2. It is used consistently and no one uses more toothpaste than necessary, 3. your teeth will drop out if you don't brush your teeth so there is motivation to consume. Housing fails on point 2. in that it is not consistently consumed, see rise of HMOs/divisibility of housing. Not in a pandemic when it is difficult to see a dentist, I have gum problems so now brush 5 times a days rather than once/twice a day. My gums are getting much better due to this level of hygiene and the pain has gone and I may not need a tooth removed unlike what the dentist said to me. So I can vouch for this not being accurate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 15-20 million over is a bit ridiculous. But 3-5 million over would not be a complete shock. Especially with the amount of unaccounted for EU citizens, that registered. Edited August 27, 2021 by reddog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Orange Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 37 minutes ago, reddog said: 15-20 million over is a bit ridiculous. But 3-5 million over would not be a complete shock. Especially with the amount of unaccounted for EU citizens, that registered. Ditto. Roughly 2.5 to 5 million extra makes sense (when most are transient and shared accommodation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coypondboy Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 11 hours ago, Notting Hell said: Interesting thread. I have often thought that there must be some product that could provide a very good estimate for the population. It's probably something like tubes of toothpaste, nail clippers, toilet paper, paracetamol, or milk--something that is (almost) universally consumed, and if not consumed results in severe personal discomfort, or consumed in a known way that means strong lower/upper bounds can be estimated. The census only counts those who wish to be counted without any real enforcement. I would have thought the Tesco estimate is very accurate--after all they (and the other large supermarkets) are in the profit-making business of feeding the nation: they have real financial/business motivation to accurately know what the true figure is. The elephant in the room is that there is clearly some serious population-related dysfunction in the UK contributing to house price inflation. @coypondboy What is the economics website you refer to? https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, shlomo said: I have 3 phones, a work phone a Monday-Friday phone and a I get drunk phone that I do not mind losing You sound like you might need a phone to keep in safe place - apparently there is a whole category called prison phones, designed to be stored in a prison wallet. https://smallestmobilephones.co.uk/product/l8star-bm10/ Edited August 27, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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