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Halifax April '21


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Its really a does any of this matter anymore - basically we are in daft times again.

Everyone in 'race for space' according to papers so expensive houses will sell. In 12 months time if have to go back to office and got a long commute or cutting a lawn twice the size will take shine off

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54 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Data out this morning.

It's not a question of whether it will be up, more like whether it will be up more than 2% like the Nationwide figures...

:ph34r:

“House prices in April eclipsed the record high set the month before as the market continued to maintain its recent 
momentum. The average property is now worth £258,204, up 1.4% month on month and 8.2% annually, the highest 
annual growth rate in 5 years. In cash terms, almost £20,000 has been added to the value of the average home since 
the market had essentially come to a standstill in April 2020".

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2 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

Stamp duty saving *3 in price increase because people are thick as shit>? 

I guess it's people storing money to protect from upcoming inflation or borrowing as much as the bank allows. They know the game is rigged and the government will protect property. Nobody would have ever expected schemes like furlough or bounce back loans.

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1 hour ago, ucnvpe0 said:

I guess it's people storing money to protect from upcoming inflation or borrowing as much as the bank allows. They know the game is rigged and the government will protect property. Nobody would have ever expected schemes like furlough or bounce back loans.

THat makes s**t all sense.  IRs are 0, WTF do these people think is going to happen with the £ starts to collapse.

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5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Data out this morning.

It's not a question of whether it will be up, more like whether it will be up more than 2% like the Nationwide figures...

:ph34r:

Look at the brightside, they're now buying up houses at these prices.........

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17 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

THat makes s**t all sense.  IRs are 0, WTF do these people think is going to happen with the £ starts to collapse.

"House" and "safe" appear to be engraved in the British psyche. Remember the "BTL is my pension" brigade.

Edited by ucnvpe0
.
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28 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

Yes, collapse has to happen eventually.

One way or another.

The bankers/establishment are clearly throwing everything at keep asset prices up, but that in itself is causing massive instability.

28 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

"House" and "safe" appear to be engraved in the British psyche. Remember the "BTL is my pension" brigade.

Not in the generation who witnessed the 1990s collapse.  

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4 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

Stamp duty saving *3 in price increase because people are thick as shit>? 

Possibly - but perhaps more so for first time buyers who don't realise there was already a first time buyer stamp duty exemption so 90% of them wouldn't have been paying stamp duty anyway - and that will continue into July and beyond.

Of course for a few FTBs in London and the south east spending £400k+ on their first home they 'save' - but that is the minority!

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7 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

Its really a does any of this matter anymore - basically we are in daft times again.

Everyone in 'race for space' according to papers so expensive houses will sell. In 12 months time if have to go back to office and got a long commute or cutting a lawn twice the size will take shine off

have seen a few reductions on right move in areas I monitor...so not everything is selling straight away anymore.

Also a friend at a university told me they are telling employees they are required to be on site once lockdown ends, so no more living in their new houses on the other side of the country. If a lot of employers follow suit this may really take the wind out the market?

 

 

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20 minutes ago, MancTom said:

have seen a few reductions on right move in areas I monitor...so not everything is selling straight away anymore.

Also a friend at a university told me they are telling employees they are required to be on site once lockdown ends, so no more living in their new houses on the other side of the country. If a lot of employers follow suit this may really take the wind out the market?

 

 

The belief that we're never needed back in the office or only on a much more limited basis looks shaky to me. We're still waiting for an updated WFH policy to be sent round - word on the inside is that it hasn't been formalised yet because senior leadership are getting increasingly uncomfortable at the thought of everyone not being back in...

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13 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

The belief that we're never needed back in the office or only on a much more limited basis looks shaky to me. We're still waiting for an updated WFH policy to be sent round - word on the inside is that it hasn't been formalised yet because senior leadership are getting increasingly uncomfortable at the thought of everyone not being back in...

this is what you call working from home (this professor - who had won the Fairs prize for maths, was technically paid and employed in a high ranking US university but instead decided to live in Rio, Brazil, where he knew some collaborators in the local university, I think he got in quite a lot of trouble for that):

 

"Mathematics research typically doesn't require much, the most important ingredients being a pad of paper and a ballpoint pen. In addition, some kind of library resources, and colleagues to query are helpful. I was satisfied. Especially enjoyable were the times spent on the beach. My work was mostly scribbling down ideas and trying to see how arguments could be put together. Also I would sketch crude diagrams of geometric objects owing through space, and try to link the pictures with formal deductions. Deeply involved in this kind of thinking and writing on a pad of paper, the distractions of the beach didn't bother me. Moreover, one could take time off from the research to swim."

https://www.cityu.edu.hk/ma/doc/people/smales/pap107.pdf

 

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If the shift to home working proves to be very limited or even completely reversed then this will wreck the element of the house price boom predicated on the race for space. You don;t need (or can't afford) all that space when you are at the office 5 days a week and can go into the town centre etc for lunch dinner or breakfast, or a few post work drinks. The public space becomes your spare space and you become less stare crazy. This is significant.

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

The belief that we're never needed back in the office or only on a much more limited basis looks shaky to me. We're still waiting for an updated WFH policy to be sent round - word on the inside is that it hasn't been formalised yet because senior leadership are getting increasingly uncomfortable at the thought of everyone not being back in...

My company has approved a hybrid model for most workers, but they will be required in the office 2-3 days a week, and I can guarantee those that want to climb the greasy pole faster will be in 4-5 days a week. People are sick of Zoom and Teams, and corporations are seeing productivity and innovation falter.

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2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

My company has approved a hybrid model for most workers, but they will be required in the office 2-3 days a week, and I can guarantee those that want to climb the greasy pole faster will be in 4-5 days a week. People are sick of Zoom and Teams, and corporations are seeing productivity and innovation falter.

Yeah, I totally agree productivity is through the floor, yet managers that enjoy WFH for various reasons (usually massive commute) seem very keen to paper over the cracks when challenged on it.

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Halifax data is derived only from property data that Halifax bank [part of the Lloyds banking group] has lent on. So basically its house price index is only from their mortgage data. 

For perspective:

Mortgaged property purchases make up 70/75% of all transactions. The remaining are cash purchases [i.e non mortgaged].

Of that 70/75% of mortgaged properties halifax makes up only 8%. Nationwide building society, by comparison, makes up 20%. So Nationwide has a big data set, is all im saying. 

Apr data released a couple days ago for reference:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national/

 

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