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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
4 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

I don't know how anyone can argue that travel bans don't make a difference when it's blindingly obvious that if no one comes into a  country with no virus then no one gets the virus.

It's obvious. And on an island it's not hard. 

The who seems to think everyone can just pay a bribe and cross the (land) border anyway. 

No  visitors from Christmas 2019 would have meant no virus and economy still running at maximum. That's the size of the governments failure. 

Instead they decided to do nothing for 2 months and let it rip

Don't say that :(.

I wake up every morning thinking "How much longer will I be stuck in this hell hole of a country". We've normally been in the south of France for three weeks by now.

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HOLA442
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HOLA443
17 minutes ago, Brave New World said:

If you have to state that question then you perhaps weren't listening to the last three months of peak omnishambles.

I would direct you to what many other countries are saying about the UK. And not just those nasty continental Europeans.....

This surcharge story is incredible.

I watched BJ yesterday saying he'd been saved by a migrant but the NHS needed the money so tough.

Basically he has an anti-immigrant populist agenda. He is not going to be moved.

Like he has a populist destiny to fulfil and no piddly flu is going to get in the way.

 

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HOLA444
10 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Don't say that :(.

I wake up every morning thinking "How much longer will I be stuck in this hell hole of a country". We've normally been in the south of France for three weeks by now.

It's just nonsense even with a land border. 

Ever tried getting into America?  

 

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HOLA445
1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

I don't really want to answer you because it will only make you more depressed. 

Ah its OK, I don't really pin much hopes on it being correct, also as for you depressing me, had a nice jog in the sun. Garden coming along nicely, just planted out all the tomatoes. 

Nice day to be soaking up Vit D. Not gonna get down about whatever u post, some of its OK, but 70% is absolute fear mongering drivel, I'm just curious as to what is actually wrong with that idea. 

I don't think ur the kind is man who wants to spare my feelings, I promise that I won't kill myself.. 

On the happy side, infections and deaths dropping rapidly in the northern hemisphere.. Looking quite positive I'd say

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HOLA446
1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

It's very unlikely that we don't have some lasting immunity.

It's as if people are describing some sort of alien virus which infects people, then once your rid, all you have to do is come into contact with someone again and bang you're infected....

It's rubbish and if such an idea was true the human race would of been extinct along time ago.

The majority of people have mild symptoms. Those over 70 carry the highest risk of mortality with underlying health problems.

No we are giving the virus more chance to mutate by all this rubbish we are carrying out. 

We are suppressing a wave, which may bounce back much higher.

I have to say I agree there is no reason to believe this will not result in us being immune.  For sure we are actually dragging it out longer by lockdown.  However it should save lives at a cost to the economy.  

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HOLA447
1 hour ago, Warlord said:

For me it's NO flights. I dont want to travel anywhere while this is going on.

I'm sure everyone has their own risk appetite. Will they go to the pub or a restaurant? I'm not sure.

You don't have to.. Let's not forget about the world, myself for example, I have a family and a business in Latvia I havent been able to see.. You don't have to take the risk, but my little fella (7) was just asking me why I can't come see him faster? 

I'm not the only one in this global world, therr are millions like me world wide. crying to stop flights seems more than a fooking bit selfish! Let's be real here 350 under 65s have dies in the UK.. In 6 months.. Out of 65 million. 

That's not a risk, ur thinking like a reet fanny

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HOLA448
3 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

You don't have to.. Let's not forget about the world, myself for example, I have a family and a business in Latvia I havent been able to see.. You don't have to take the risk, but my little fella (7) was just asking me why I can't come see him faster? 

I'm not the only one in this global world, therr are millions like me world wide. crying to stop flights seems more than a fooking bit selfish! Let's be real here 350 under 65s have dies in the UK.. In 6 months.. Out of 65 million. 

That's not a risk, ur thinking like a reet fanny

I'm not saying a blanket ban.. just voluntary i.e I dont want to travel you can do so if you want.

I think that's what it's going to come down to. Even if pubs and restaurants open will people want to go to them?

Edited by Warlord
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HOLA449
49 minutes ago, Brave New World said:

 

Us too. My wife is a Nurse and has been waiting 3 wks now.  Tho this was standard testing.

At the time the out of the blue test and anitbody test....then a few days later we realised it was part of bozo Boris's 100k push. 

Another utterly contemptable action by the clowns in government, so they could get a grubby headline in the daily heil.

What use is a test that doesn't give you a result for three weeks, when symptoms are gone in two??

The Anti-Body trial is a test every two weeks for six months. Third one is tomorrow.  

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HOLA4410

Government u-turns on NHS surcharge for immigrants.???

Literally, the government right now have no control whatsoever, they say one thing and the public is like, listen bitches do as we say right now...

Otherwise you know we are all hysterical, with coronavirus, we will come down and kill you now...

Try send us back to work... 

Try send kids to school...

You trying to kill us goverment...

Literally that's what's happening ????.

 

20200521_173302.png

Edited by Speed1987
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HOLA4411
11 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I'm not the only one in this global world, therr are millions like me world wide. crying to stop flights seems more than a fooking bit selfish! Let's be real here 350 under 65s have dies in the UK.. In 6 months.. Out of 65 million. 

That's not a risk, ur thinking like a reet fanny

 

No, 2200 dead that are  under 60, in less than 3 months.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

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HOLA4412
7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

No, 2200 dead that are  under 60, in less than 3 months.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Writing "in less than 3 months", generates that impact.

Luckily,  I'm not the hysterical type and understand that most of these had severe underlying health problems.

So the onus, needs to be on the individual, to make sensible decisions regarding their contacts.

Edited by Speed1987
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HOLA4413
26 minutes ago, Warlord said:

I'm not saying a blanket ban.. just voluntary i.e I dont want to travel you can do so if you want.

I think that's what it's going to come down to. Even if pubs and restaurants open will people want to go to them?

Yes, I do, like you say, give people the choice, I think we are all capable of weighing up risks vs rewards, as we know some people value these in much different ways, some people love jumping out of planes, not my cup of tea. But that's what they like and they should be given free choice. 

There is loads of demand out there..and if not that's, OK, then it's a legitamately failed business model, but to not give it a fighting chance is the sin we are commiting

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HOLA4414
22 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

No, 2200 dead that are  under 60, in less than 3 months.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Ah sorry, I believe the ones with no underlying health problems was only 350..

And heck with 2200, out of 65,000,000 I'm still more than fine with those odds. I think that's called life

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HOLA4415
3 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Yes, I do, like you say, give people the choice, I think we are all capable of weighing up risks vs rewards, as we know some people value these in much different ways, some people love jumping out of planes, not my cup of tea. But that's what they like and they should be given free choice. 

There is loads of demand out there..and if not that's, OK, then it's a legitamately failed business model, but to not give it a fighting chance is the sin we are commiting

I suspect it's going to take a bit of time for people to venture out even when lockdown has ended. 

@Peter Hun is this what you mean that many pubs etc. will go bust because people will just stay away?

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HOLA4416
Just now, Warlord said:

I suspect it's going to take a bit of time for people to venture out even when lockdown has ended. 

@Peter Hun is this what you mean that many pubs etc. will go bust because people will just stay away?

Well, I personally don't, but why. It give it the chance, it reduces furlough payments, gets us back on the right track.. 

What I do believe will suffer is high end restaurants, but not a normal pub, serving cheap and cheerful food and fair. 

I'm not sure of your age, but I guarantee, there is a large slice of Brit UK 18 onwards, that is single, hasn't had a shag for a few months and is dying to get back to a bit of alcohol induced stupidity. Its a huge part of our culture, and if allowed to open again, I do believe boom time.. 

 

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HOLA4417
3 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Writing "in less than 3 months", generates that impact.

Luckily,  I'm not the hysterical type and understand that most of these had severe underlying health problems.

So the onus, needs to be on the individual, to make sensible decisions regarding their contacts.

 

Can you see why  the tories balked at survival of the fittest? It was pretty much the tory policy at the beginning ("bed blockers" and "herd immunity "). It just doesn't sound very civilised...

As for millions of business owners wanting to travel abroad,  and telling our grannies they must accept the risks if some of those travellers are infected... that just doesn't sound like a viable tory policy either...

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HOLA4418
Just now, Grayphil said:

Well, I personally don't, but why. It give it the chance, it reduces furlough payments, gets us back on the right track.. 

What I do believe will suffer is high end restaurants, but not a normal pub, serving cheap and cheerful food and fair. 

I'm not sure of your age, but I guarantee, there is a large slice of Brit UK 18 onwards, that is single, hasn't had a shag for a few months and is dying to get back to a bit of alcohol induced stupidity. Its a huge part of our culture, and if allowed to open again, I do believe boom time.. 

 

In terms of restaurants who wants to go with masks and social distancing? It ruins the experience.  

I'm sure your right about nightclubs...Pubs might suffer  unless this is over by xmas.

 

 

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HOLA4419
23 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

that most of these had severe underlying health problems.

Evidence?

32 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Try send us back to work... 

Try send kids to school...

You trying to kill us goverment...

Literally that's what's happening ????.

Its almost entirely the governments fault that people have been furloughed, damn right they get paid compensation. 25% are expected to be made unemployed.

7 minutes ago, Warlord said:

@Peter Hun is this what you mean that many pubs etc. will go bust because people will just stay away?

Yup, there will be huge numbers of people who will continue lockdown behavior. 80% of UK pubs cannot make enough money under the 2m rule and who wants to be subjected to it, in any case.

Google, for instance, is not going back to the office until next year. Recessions have a compounding effect, fear of it will cause people to stop spending money. Not going to the office will mean no spending in cities at lunch, shops and evenings.

 

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HOLA4420
9 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

What I do believe will suffer is high end restaurants, but not a normal pub, serving cheap and cheerful food and fair. 

High end restaurants need fewer customers, normal pubs based on volume are stuffed.

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
10 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Yup, there will be huge numbers of people who will continue lockdown behavior. 80% of UK pubs cannot make enough money under the 2m rule and who wants to be subjected to it, in any case.

Google, for instance, is not going back to the office until next year. Recessions have a compounding effect, fear of it will cause people to stop spending money. Not going to the office will mean no spending in cities at lunch, shops and evenings.

 

I tend to do agree. For me I don't like the idea of travelling. until this is over.

What's happening in the City of London with bankers/traders etc?

Edited by Warlord
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HOLA4423
5 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

High end restaurants need fewer customers, normal pubs based on volume are stuffed.

I mean I don't think they will have the demand.. As you mentioned lots of companies like Google may be off for a while.. 

(I may have a small clue about the industry Ive worked in for 25 years!) 

 

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HOLA4424
2 minutes ago, Warlord said:

What's happening in the City of London with bankers/traders etc?

Talk of re-structuring offices, but vastly reduced numbers. Not going to be any social events I'd thought, massive loss for the strippers...

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HOLA4425
1 minute ago, Warlord said:

II tend to do agree. For me I don;t like the idea of travelling. until this is over.

What's happening in the City of London with bankers/traders etc?

Bankers easier to work from home and are managing, clients aren't exactly wanting to meet with them except via Zoom atm anyways (would you if your banker had been through a busy airport, been on a flight, checked into a hotel, got a train/subway to your office?) so might cause a secular shift in business practices. Traders will be among first to go back though a lot of firms are planning only 50% to fully return at least until next year under current plans. Quite a lot of big firms that my mates work at are moving to 1 week in office 1 week WFH.

This virus is the great accelerator imo, Financial Services has always been somewhat culturally opposed to WFH (which has been increasing in wider industry for years) and people have long argued trading floors can't be run from home, compliance risks yada yada ... necessity breeding creation and all that :)

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