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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441

Boris refuses work sick note

Nice way to explain the risk:
 

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The greatest risk I believe I face on a daily basis is road traffic injuries. It is interesting to think of the risk of dying in a car accident, because it's a risk we all accept.

We are now having to accept that the risk of coronavirus infection has been added to our daily lives, perhaps forever. At an approximate 30 deaths per 100,000 people per year (if the number of deaths double during the remainder of the year) for those of working age it is a great deal higher than our road traffic mortality rate (2.7 per 100,000) and about double America's RTA rate. Or to put it another way, it's similar to the risk of dying for a British woman planning to give birth to two to three children (maternal mortality in the UK 9/100,000).

 

 

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HOLA442

 

 

https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-human-cost-of-delaying-lockdown/

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The human cost of delaying lockdown

A while ago, I mentioned that the cost of delaying lockdown by a week was to increase illness and death by a factor of 5, based on the doubling time of 3 days that the virus seemed to have at the start.                                uk_12_may_delay2.png?w=700

So, with these numbers that represent an initial doubling time of 3.5 days, we see that implementing the lockdown one week earlier would have saved about 30,000 lives in the current wave (based on official numbers, which are themselves a substantial underestimate). It would also have made for a shorter, cheaper, less damaging lockdown in economic terms. And this is all quite simple maths that every single modeller involved in SAGE was fully aware of at the time.

https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-human-cost-of-delaying-lockdown/

 

One week delay to lockdown cost 30,000 lives

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11 minutes ago, pig said:

BJ has been AWOL too...

Where is he, our leader, should he not be center stage on the central lectern daily giving positive direction and confidence with his scientific advisers either side of him for support......all about the science, the science knows, the science has the answers.....when many scientists will and do see things very differently.....what scientists to choose?  ;)

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15 minutes ago, pig said:

Firstly HPI - I thought we'd finally learn our lesson back in 2008. The rest all kind of flow into each other.

Secondly shrink the state sell off the NHS etc under cover of 'austerity'

I never suggested selling the NHS.  in fact the only way we can have an NHS is to balance the books and making cuts elsewhere to places that are not essential and which most people wouldn't notice .We can start with £12bn foreign aid budget.That can go and no one will feel it. I would also close Quango;'s and fire bureaucrats.  This could save £100bn,

so as you can see you don't need to cut the NHS or any other core functions and the only way of guaranteeing  decent public services is by getting the countries finances in order.. After this pandemic we're further from that than ever before :(

 

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53 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

The outcome the UK could've had if Boris didn't dither and delay.

Boris Fail

BB14mMK5.img?h=547&w=888&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=

It’s pretty clear to anyone with more than a couple of functioning brain cells that lockdowns work and that we locked down too late. One day this vile government will be in court over the entirely avoidable deaths. 

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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

I never suggested selling the NHS.  in fact the only way we can have an NHS is to balance the books and making cuts elsewhere to places that are not essential and which most people wouldn't notice .We can start with £12bn foreign aid budget.That can go and no one will feel it. I would also close Quango;'s and fire bureaucrats.  This could save £100bn,

so as you can see you don't need to cut the NHS or any other core functions and the only way of guaranteeing  decent public services is by getting the countries finances in order.. After this pandemic we're further from that than ever before :(

 

I am old enough to have heard this line several times, each time nothing happens as on closer inspection the incoming government finds those quangos, like red tape, are their for a reason. 

Where there have been cuts the costs of the unintended consequences can be huge e.g. how much was saved by not enforcing fire regulations in comparison with the cost of Grenfell and the billions needed to retrofit ire resistant cladding on hundreds of tower block. The cuts in all the local public health offices/labs led to our inability to conduct German style test and track.   

The foreign aid budget is 0.7% of GDP even if cut to zero, and ignoring the fact it is used to gain influence for the UK, surely something that is vital in the post Brexit world, you wouldn't even notice the difference.   

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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I am old enough to have heard this line several times, each time nothing happens as on closer inspection the incoming government finds those quangos, like red tape, are their for a reason. 

 

Yes I know we've heard it all before but no government does it! They need to follow through and fire civil servants en masse, especially non-essential and close entire departments like the Department for Trade and industry (why do we need this?) . It never happens because they're  a huge VI and once the government gets in they simply just carry on the game. It's infuriating but sooner or later they will have to reduce the size of government because it is currently unsustainable,..

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1 minute ago, Warlord said:

Yes I know we've heard it all before but no government does it! They need to follow through and fire civil servants en masse, especially non-essential and close entire departments like the Department for Trade and industry (why do we need this?) . It never happens because their a huge VI and once the government gets in they simply just carry on the game. It's infuriating but sooner or later they will have to reduce the size of government because it is currently unsustainable,..

Fire civil servants en mass?

I can see how that will go down... minister hands draft paper to civil servant.. oh yes minister ill make sure this bill gets written up.

All ministers head a department that is just civil servants. How many managers really cut their own staff? you want the other managers staff to be cut always

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Just now, captainb said:

Fire civil servants en mass?

I can see how that will go down... minister hands draft paper to civil servant.. oh yes minister ill make sure this bill gets written up.

All ministers head a department that is just civil servants. How many managers really cut their own staff? you want the other managers staff to be cut always

I'm no expert on the state of government but the figures ive seen is if we have a literal bonfire of the alphabet soup of Quango;s we can save £100 billion. That can put us back in the black then we can truly spend money on public services that people want.

Treasury for example employs over 1,000 people in London i(in a massive new billion pound building) We don't need that much. That's just an example there are far more detailed reports from the taxpayers alliance I believe if you look around

 

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3 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

@Warlord Boris put out a GREEN FOR GO message. Course people will break the soft lockdown. They're meant to.

Then the Tory press splash the pictures to prove Brits cant use "common sense", whatever that is. Got to love the DM, playing both sides. ?

Where are the police? How many fines are being issued? I certainly dont want a fine so i am respecting lockdown like a good little slave. :P

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1 minute ago, Warlord said:

Where are the police? How many fines are being issued? I certainly dont want a fine so i am respecting lockdown like a good little slave. :P

What do you get fined for? Going to your parents house unless it's for sale. Or going to Wales, maybe. Perhaps you could take up golf or tennis. You already do plenty of fishing. ?

Anyway, I'm busy browsing the DM sidebar. ?

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9 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Where are the police? How many fines are being issued? I certainly dont want a fine so i am respecting lockdown like a good little slave. :P

Police said they will not enforce the new rules because its impossible.

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HOLA4418
4 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

What do you get fined for? Going to your parents house unless it's for sale. Or going to Wales, maybe. Perhaps you could take up golf or tennis. You already do plenty of fishing. ?

Anyway, I'm busy browsing the DM sidebar. ?

When i've been on trips to the supermarket I have seen a visible police presence though not sure what they're up to  i.e I didn't see them stopping anyone.or handing out fines.

I think you should just close the Daily Mail tab. it'll be better for your blood pressure  ?

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35 minutes ago, Warlord said:

@ticket2ride while reading the Daily Mail :P did you read this? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347389/Ministers-fear-coronavirus-crisis-square-one.html

People are breaking lockdown. I dont see how its Boris's fault.

 

because he deliberately was ambiguous and vague to encourage people to break it. The new logo was even changed from red to green borders!

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18 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Police said they will not enforce the new rules because its impossible.

I should imagine that the police don't know if they are coming or going....forever changing, thing is the people know that by being released will bring economic benefits at the detriment of some who will encounter huge health risks.....

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HOLA4423
19 minutes ago, MancTom said:

because he deliberately was ambiguous and vague to encourage people to break it. The new logo was even changed from red to green borders!

I agree, the idea being, if there is a 2nd spike, "the powers that be" can say, its not the government's fault, its all the fault of the "foodhardy" public for breaking the lockdown.

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