Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Bruce Banner]

8 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

So what is your solution?

Lockdowns enforced by the military, "boots on the ground" .

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

I`m not anti-mask, I am for sensible distancing, masking and partial lockdown until we get a clearer picture of this virus, I am against pretending that a rushed out untested shot in the arm "inoculates" people from very much at all, the last few people I have spoken to who contracted Covid were all double jabbed, don`t you see the absurdity of pretending that a "vaccine" that doesn`t stop you spreading Covid, doesn`t stop you contracting Covid and probably isn`t very effective against the "variants" that will be thriving as people gather together again is the way forward!

Quite a few double jabbed neighbours in the 60-80 age range have now caught Covid, all had a very mild symptoms ranging from feeling tired to a couple of days in bed. As far as they were concerned the vaccination was a success.

NB Despite lower effectiveness against Delta the vaccinations are still providing better and longer lasting protection than previous infection with Alpha. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

8 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

 

I don’t deny health plays a huge factor in this - but fit men and women I know have described covid as a living nightmare that’s incomparable to a normal ‘flu’. Many of them have been left with other ongoing issues. 

Do they eat well though?

I've seen thin healthy looking people keel over from other things because whilst they exercise and burn it off, they basically eat junk.

I'll be honest, I spend a fortune on food shopping (weekly shop £300+ for four), but I only buy the best, freshest and ideally organic - we rarely get takeaways. My kids even prefer raw vegetables to sweets, because I make sure the veg tastes good. I know others have to make do with less, but there are still options.

[Confusion of VIs]

7 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098

Seems to be a pretty balanced article.

I thought this point was interesting (the first quote is just for context)...

"For all the trouble the virus has caused, it is spectacularly simple. It has the famous spike protein, which is the key it uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells. And 28 other proteins that it needs to hijack our cells and make thousands of copies of itself."

"Whether you've had Moderna or Pfizer or Oxford-AstraZeneca, your body is learning to spot just one thing - the spike protein. This is the critical part of the virus to make antibodies to, and the results - by keeping most out of hospital - have been spectacular. But having the other 28 proteins to target too, would give T-cells far more to go at. "That means if you had a real humdinger of an infection, you may have better immunity to any new variants that pop up as you have immunity to more than just spike," said Prof Riley." [emphasis mine]

So the above vaccines focus on identifying one aspect of the virus (the spike protein), while natural immunity may be better at identifying the virus by other features.

That is of course is if you survive the real humdinger of an infection. I suspect most people would rather have a vaccine that while it may not stop them catching Covid will ensure it is a mild one.  

[FallingAwake]

11 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

These are people that will have all had regular cold and flu viruses throughout their lives, often feeling forced to work through them because of work pressure. 

How do you work through the flu? I've never had it, but I heard it basically knocks you out. Are you sure they even had the flu if they were able to work?

11 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

I don’t deny health plays a huge factor in this - but fit men and women I know have described covid as a living nightmare that’s incomparable to a normal ‘flu’. Many of them have been left with other ongoing issues. 

This is also why I question whether they actually had the "flu" before... if they were able to work while having it.

Anyway, I take your point that covid can be really bad for some. The real mystery is WHY is it bad for some, and unnoticeable for others?

I suspect there is an underlying health / diet issue involved (otherwise covid would be more consistent). Maybe they're fit and healthy, but also overworked, like your earlier paragraphs suggest? (i.e. working with the flu). This stress might have contributed to making covid worse.

[Bruce Banner]

3 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Do they eat well though?

I've seen thin healthy looking people keel over from other things because whilst they exercise and burn it off, they basically eat junk.

I'll be honest, I spend a fortune on food shopping (weekly shop £300+ for four), but I only buy the best, freshest and ideally organic - we rarely get takeaways. My kids even prefer raw vegetables to sweets, because I make sure the veg tastes good. I know others have to make do with less, but there are still options.

I bet you cut the fat off your steak.

[FallingAwake]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That is of course is if you survive the real humdinger of an infection. I suspect most people would rather have a vaccine that while it may not stop them catching Covid will ensure it is a mild one.  

Fair point.

[Will!]

23 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Do they eat well though?

I've seen thin healthy looking people keel over from other things because whilst they exercise and burn it off, they basically eat junk.

I'll be honest, I spend a fortune on food shopping (weekly shop £300+ for four), but I only buy the best, freshest and ideally organic - we rarely get takeaways. My kids even prefer raw vegetables to sweets, because I make sure the veg tastes good. I know others have to make do with less, but there are still options.

Fresh fruit and veg is the cheapest food there is.

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

I think you are more likely if you think that the vaccination makes you "safe", it doesn`t, that it does is obvious horseshit IMO. The "vaccine" isn`t about making you "safe" it is about making you "spend" while thinking you are "safe".

The evidence that a lot fewer vaccinated people die if they catch Covid vs unvaccinated people is very strong. The evidence that it provides a measure of reduction in catching it in the first place is quite strong too, although that protection isn't brilliant (very roughly half the chance).

Unless you're in a vulnerable group though you're probably fairly safe to begin with, although people may reasonably decide that they'd prefer a less unpleasant illness if they do get it.

[Riedquat]

29 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

How do you work through the flu? I've never had it, but I heard it basically knocks you out. Are you sure they even had the flu if they were able to work?

Yeah, anyone who claims to have worked through flu has never had it. I've only had it once (when I was in my teens). Yes, I could get out of bed but I ended up right in front of a gas fire with a blanket wrapped around me, shivering.

I've had my fair number of bad colds, and they can leave me feeling like crap, but they're not flu (found it rather annoying when the Covid symptoms reports said "headache is rare in colds" - happens every cold to me, and is one of the more unpleasant parts of it).

Edited August 21, 2021 by Riedquat

[Bruce Banner]

5 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Yeah, anyone who claims to have worked through flu has never had it. I've only had it once (when I was in my teens). Yes, I could get out of bed but I ended up right in front of a gas fire with a blanket wrapped around me, shivering.

Believe me, when you're running a business that absolutely needs you, you drag yourself out of bed, stagger to the car, get into your office and don't come out lest you infect your workforce. I once had it so bad I couldn't smoke for a few days, too painful. 

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, pig said:

Yes I know you’re not making much sense  hence the  just making noises to please yourself comment.

Feel free to ignore my comments then.

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

The vaccine doesn`t stop people catching Covid, and may turn out to be completely useless against future variants, THAT`S  the problem! LOL.

So what do you advocate? Young people having no fun and wasting their one brief moment of youth just in case a vaccine doesn’t work perfectly?

We will all get COVID eventually, and the old and weak have been vaccinated, so have the best protection we have (it’s not perfect - but it’s what we have).

So it’s time for back to normal. If not now then when…?

[Pmax2020]

I’ve only had the flu once, and like most people here I can vouch for it being dramatically harder to deal with that a cold. I felt incredibly run down and it was hard to function at times. 

Maybe my ‘working through it’ comment was a slight exaggeration but I stand by the sentiment. I’ve spoken to several colleagues that’ve said this was worse than any flu they’d had in the past. More importantly, it lasted longer and has had lasting effects on several of these people, even a year later. 

I agree the government response went too far. I also agree lifestyle, diet, and basic decision making goes a long way to preventing you catching it, or indeed really suffering.

I think even comparing it to flu however is pretty disingenuous because we know deaths related to covid dwarf those you’d typically expect from a normal flu seasons. 

[zugzwang]

6 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

So it’s time for back to normal. If not now then when…?

Not when Covid deaths and infections are going exponential (again).

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

56 minutes ago, Will! said:

Fresh fruit and veg is the cheapest food there is.

Yes, though the nice tasty stuff does cost more. I also buy a lot of fish and some lean meat.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

I bet you cut the fat off your steak.

If I find any, yes.  

I normally only buy fillet these days and not huge pieces. Mostly there is no fat to chew.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

"For all the trouble the virus has caused, it is spectacularly simple. It has the famous spike protein, which is the key it uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells. And 28 other proteins that it needs to hijack our cells and make thousands of copies of itself."

"Whether you've had Moderna or Pfizer or Oxford-AstraZeneca, your body is learning to spot just one thing - the spike protein. ...... But having the other 28 proteins to target too, would give T-cells far more to go at. "

 

Makes it sound like a game of "pulling the real girl in a drag club", checking for the protein spike first gets you into more trouble than confirming certain other features remotely.

 

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

No, I meant that the message becomes much less effective if they appear too desperate, like a 70`s TV star trying to do their old routine on Celebrity Bungle or whatever and hoping that the country will fall under their spell again, Bloomberg for example have gone beyond constant scripted references to who is getting "jabbed" that day among the presenters and constant references to "shots in arms" at every and any opportunity to a realm beyond even self parody, they have jumped the shark while trying to put a booster shot into it`s fin as it tries to eat them, the best and only message that will get across is actual proof that people with a jab just don`t have anything to do with Covid, like a person who drives having nothing to do with bus travel, but of course for this round of vaccines that is never going to be the case, hence the media/politicians just doubling down on their original shite that the vaccine is the be all and end all to this problem because they don`t really have anything else.

Agreed. I'm just waiting for Bon Jovi to re-release as "Shot to the Arm". Given the myocarditis issues I would imagine not such a great idea if people look at the original lyrics of the song though.

Irish pharmacist shares tips to avoid fainting during vaccine after increase in young people collapsing

As Ireland’s vaccine rollout extends to those aged 16 and up, vaccinators are noticing an increase in the younger population fainting after receiving their vaccine.

Edited August 21, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I'll be honest, I spend a fortune on food shopping (weekly shop £300+ for four), but I only buy the best, freshest and ideally organic - we rarely get takeaways. My kids even prefer raw vegetables to sweets, because I make sure the veg tastes good. I know others have to make do with less, but there are still options.

From my understanding of these matters, £10 per person per day buys all the organic vegetables you could possibly want, with quite a lot left over. 

Edited August 21, 2021 by Ah-so

[pig]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Believe me, when you're running a business that absolutely needs you, you drag yourself out of bed, stagger to the car, get into your office and don't come out lest you infect your workforce. I once had it so bad I couldn't smoke for a few days, too painful. 

That isn't proper flu lol!

I learnt my lesson when I had to redo the work I thought I had done, and probably extended the period of time I was ill. There was something to getting out of bed though (if you can!) as fresh air and a little movement did at least did make me feel 'relatively' better.

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

How do you work through the flu? I've never had it, but I heard it basically knocks you out. Are you sure they even had the flu if they were able to work?

This is also why I question whether they actually had the "flu" before... if they were able to work while having it.

Anyway, I take your point that covid can be really bad for some. The real mystery is WHY is it bad for some, and unnoticeable for others?

I suspect there is an underlying health / diet issue involved (otherwise covid would be more consistent). Maybe they're fit and healthy, but also overworked, like your earlier paragraphs suggest? (i.e. working with the flu). This stress might have contributed to making covid worse.

I've had flu once in my life and it was awful. I understand why it is bad enough to kill elderly people. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

56 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

 

So what do you advocate? Young people having no fun and wasting their one brief moment of youth just in case a vaccine doesn’t work perfectly?

We will all get COVID eventually, and the old and weak have been vaccinated, so have the best protection we have (it’s not perfect - but it’s what we have).

So it’s time for back to normal. If not now then when…?

 

I will also add that is is weak immune systems that are most effective at creating new variants. They also have a tendency to deliver escape variants from things like vaccines and convalescent plasma. 

The kids have never been the problem here. The issue is that we have a large overhang generation many of whom won't come to terms with their own mortality and are happy to screw up everyone else's lives to "keep them(selves) safe."

SARS-CoV-2 doesn't think, it doesn't care and doesn't show compassion. It is merely opportunistic. It co-exists with the fit and healthy with little consequence, but like many of natures opportunists it can sometimes grow and kill the host, especially when the host puts up too weak a defence or overreacts in some way. This is really a problem with the hosts health. It is the same in the forest, healthy trees don't succumb to fungus and fungus mainly lives on dead wood, but will also take a dying tree. In a similar way lions will catch the weakest wilder beast. Sometime they might be the very young, but often it is the old ones. This is how life is, and even if we come up with marvellous vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus existing in the trillions of particles is like giant Monte Carlo simulation where every possibility is found and those that work stick. We can't out run it, we can't evade it, we just need to live with it. The best and individual can do is maintain their health as best they can - good food, exercise and no-smoking and moderate drinking.

Edited August 21, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

4 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

From my understanding of these matters, £10 per person per day buys all the organic vegetables you could possibly want, with quite a lot left over. 

Well £10 x 4 People x 7 days = £280

[pig]

53 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Feel free to ignore my comments then.

So what do you advocate? Young people having no fun and wasting their one brief moment of youth just in case a vaccine doesn’t work perfectly?

We will all get COVID eventually, and the old and weak have been vaccinated, so have the best protection we have (it’s not perfect - but it’s what we have).

So it’s time for back to normal. If not now then when…?

Theres is no 'normal' anymore lol. We need to find a way of living with Covid remember ?  Not try to pretend it isn't there.

[anonguest]

Just now, Will! said:

Fresh fruit and veg is the cheapest food there is.

The problem is, increasingly in my experience and observation over many years, that the quality (i.e. anything but visual appearance) of non-organic fruit and veg bought at supermarkets has declined notably.  We recently started, initially just occassionally as a 'treat', to buy organic this and that - to compare and try out.  And there is very often a notable (better!) difference in quality and taste.  So much so that we now buy, wherever we can, organic produce.

Edited August 21, 2021 by anonguest