Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[nightowl]

6 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Back to the flu comparisons, as though it was January 2020.

COVID-19 has a 30x mortality rate on those it infects

COVID-19 has an R rate of around 3, whereas flu has an average R rate of about 1.

Which is why, despite a lockdown, we have 126,000 dead in the UK of COVID, compared to the typically 15-20k deaths from flu each year, without a lockdown.

The continued attempts to compare COVID-19 to flu show either a deep misunderstanding or a deliberate attempt to conflate the two different illnesses.

It's not like they are the same biologically but our society response will have parallels as my point was we accept a certain number of flu deaths a year but what should we accept from cv19? 

If it's zero how much collateral damage would occur?

Would this collateral damage cause bigger health problems elsewhere (ie mental health, lack of tax receipts)?

 

[slawek]

48 minutes ago, captainb said:

OK just take a step back. 

You are a private company or entity, with shareholders or charitable aims. You "give" as per you, billions to a commercial company not expecting a return of product. How realistic or likely do you think that is? 

 

Yes. A prepayment of product to develop capacity to build that product is a form of funding but given you are virtually certain to get a commercial product out of it, or erm don't pay its not the same as funding up front research. 

Some more reading 

AZ 1 bln non-manufacturing costs, 5 bln manufacturing  

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-the-multi-billion-pound-business-of-the-oxford-vaccine-12134833

Research over 10 years (probably tens of millions in total), just in 2020 over 30m funding from gov and charities, including even China 

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/701825/response/1678268/attach/2/FOI 20201025 03 Ltr Funding of Covid vaccine.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1

[Pebbles]

So this great globalised success sees India banning exports of the vaccine now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56513371

Not just a threat actually banned. I dont have an issue with that they built a mega setup and have invested billions over the years to create pharmaceutical manufacturing capabilities where as we have invested our economy in Coffee shop staff an other low paying non essential jobs. Too bad UK, globalisation works well for those countries who want to take these manufacturing job for the rest well when the crunch comes you will have to suffer.

[Ah-so]

2 minutes ago, nightowl said:

It's not like they are the same biologically but our society response will have parallels as my point was we accept a certain number of flu deaths a year but what should we accept from cv19? 

If it's zero how much collateral damage would occur?

Would this collateral damage cause bigger health problems elsewhere (ie mental health, lack of tax receipts)?

 

It is obviously a judgement that we have to make. If this was a disease that killed 60% of the UK population, young and old alike, I think we would all accept that the toll would be too high in every sense not to take extraordinary precautions. And a disease that kills a relatively small number number every year is not worth making an adjustment for.

There is a sliding scale, but given the death toll already, and the known mortality rate among the higher risk category and the R rate, we could easily have seen deaths of 500,000, maybe higher. The burden on our health services would have been too much and it would probably have also hit our economy nearly as badly as the lockdown itself.

Lockdown is bad for mental health, but the death of a loved one can also be bad for mental health. There is nothing binary in this whole equation.

[captainb]

24 minutes ago, slawek said:

Some more reading 

AZ 1 bln non-manufacturing costs, 5 bln manufacturing  

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-the-multi-billion-pound-business-of-the-oxford-vaccine-12134833

Research over 10 years (probably tens of millions in total), just in 2020 over 30m funding from gov and charities, including even China 

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/701825/response/1678268/attach/2/FOI 20201025 03 Ltr Funding of Covid vaccine.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1

Right so the non manufacturing costs are directly linked to number of doses sold and number of jurisdictions... 

"licensing, the cost of trials and regulation, and pharmacovigilance, the ongoing monitoring of safety" 

Trials, regulation and manufacturing of drugs on a global scale in the billions of doses is expensive. Nobody said it wasn't. Its evidently different to fund than actual research. But I note your billions in EU research has gone down to 10s of millions perhaps, maybe. Your Chinese grant is £68k ffs. What were they funding the intern? £31m from the UK goverment. Oh rather different scale. 

 

Like the EU but their behaviour over this is ridiculous. If only they would use the doses they have first. Any additional millions are heading for the fridge. Not to save lives. Net impact is just a ton of reputational damage. 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by captainb

[14stFlyer]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

The EU was naive believing that buying vaccine will be a fair game. You can blame them for that.  

Perhaps this is simply a cultural thing Slawek?  
 

There is no doubt that U.K. government have been trying to use every means they legally and morally can to get as much vaccine supply as quickly as possible for the U.K. population. And quite frankly the majority of the U.K. population support and approve of this approach.  Indeed, many national politicians within the EU have freely admitted that they should have done (and even now should be doing) the same. 
 

As we are all mourning our lost Mediterranean holidays this year, I have an analogy for you.
 

The British Government got in early, paid top dollar for the sun lounger by the pool, stuck their towel on it and then went in to start queuing for breakfast at the hotel restaurant. The EU Commission spent hours arguing with the deck chair attendant over the price of sun loungers, threatened to throw our towel into the pool, and is now attempting to jump the breakfast queue and be first out in the sunshine. 

[Bruce Banner]

38 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

It will actually be a good experiment - the UK population will be at herd immunity and the French possibly below. Over the next 12 months we can see what that means for deaths, lockdowns and GDP growth. The pro-vax hypothesis would be that the UK would be in a better position in all three, but it could be evidenced either way.

Of course, it does depend on who gets the vaccination - older people are less likely to be concerned about vaccinations or buy into new age woo about the the body's natural immunity etc.

Indeed, and when the French achieve herd immunity it will be largely natural acquired immunity rather than the UKs vaccine immunity, so yes, an interesting experiment. I am an older person and I would prefer natural immunity.

[pig]

2 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Perhaps this is simply a cultural thing Slawek?  
 

There is no doubt that U.K. government have been trying to use every means they legally and morally can to get as much vaccine supply as quickly as possible for the U.K. population. And quite frankly the majority of the U.K. population support and approve of this approach.  Indeed, many national politicians within the EU have freely admitted that they should have done (and even now should be doing) the same. 
 

As we are all mourning our lost Mediterranean holidays this year, I have an analogy for you.
 

The British Government got in early, paid top dollar for the sun lounger by the pool, stuck their towel on it and then went in to start queuing for breakfast at the hotel restaurant. The EU Commission spent hours arguing with the deck chair attendant over the price of sun loungers, threatened to throw our towel into the pool, and is now attempting to jump the breakfast queue and be first out in the sunshine. 

Didn't they book the sun lounger the day before but didn't specify 'me first' if there weren't enough sun loungers ?

[slawek]

 

15 minutes ago, captainb said:

Right so the non manufacturing costs are directly linked to number of doses sold and number of jurisdictions...

Not quite, trials are fixed costs

8 minutes ago, captainb said:

But I note your billions in EU research has gone down to 10s of millions perhaps, maybe

I never claimed the research was billions. it must be some misunderstanding. It was always 10s of millions research, billions the rest (trials, building manufacturing capacity, etc).

 

10 minutes ago, captainb said:

Your Chinese grant is £68k ffs

It was a curiosity. It shows how China is using its soft power.

11 minutes ago, captainb said:

£31m from the UK goverment. Oh rather different scale. 

Yes but this report is not full, exclude 10 years of funding before 2020 (an excuse was it was too difficult for them to gather these data) and private funding (including AZ).

17 minutes ago, captainb said:

Like the EU but their behaviour over this is ridiculous. If only they would use the doses they have first. Any additional millions are heading for the fridge. Not to save lives. Net impact is just a ton of reputational damage. 

Not sure what you mean here. Are you referring to the initial issue of AZ stockpiling in Italy? 

[Bruce Banner]

Today the Commons decide on the extension of the emergency Covid powers. 

True blue Tory back benchers versus an authoritarian PM backed by an authoritarian opposition . 

[14stFlyer]

11 minutes ago, pig said:

Didn't they book the sun lounger the day before but didn't specify 'me first' if there weren't enough sun loungers ?

No. They didn’t. 
 

I have to say though, I am really worried about where this vaccine nationalism is all going. 
 

As pointed out by Michael Martin “Once you start putting up barriers, other people start putting up barriers globally.”

In the case of the Pfizer’s vaccine, it needs 280 materials from 86 suppliers in 19 countries, including some vital bits form the U.K. supply chain.
 

But look at this from the reverse and you realise how perilous our U.K. post-Brexit position really is.   Pretty much all our U.K. based manufacturing will similarly rely on EU based materials. And if we do not manufacture ourselves, we are relying on exports from EU and globally...  there is no way the U.K. will “win” any export ban escalation.  

Take care Boris. Now may be the time for a magnanimous gesture or two. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by 14stFlyer
Spelling

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

Your post rather confirms your anti-EU views.

The EU was naive believing that buying vaccine will be a fair game. You can blame them for that.  

Isn't the great irony that the EU behaved very Anglo/capitalist like in trying to secure their supplies ?

ie going for the lowest bidder, rather than trying to forge relationships with the suppliers and secure the supply chain ?

After all, that sounds like something the Germans would do, having their eye on technology/IP and the bigger picture rather than looking just at the bottom line and believing that was totally representative of a good job ?

[captainb]

1 minute ago, slawek said:

 

Not quite, trials are fixed costs

I never claimed the research was billions. it must be some misunderstanding. It was always 10s of millions research, billions the rest (trials, building manufacturing capacity, etc).

 

It was a curiosity. It shows how China is using its soft power.

Yes but this report is not full, exclude 10 years of funding before 2020 (an excuse was it was too difficult for them to gather these data) and private funding (including AZ).

Not sure what you mean here. Are you referring to the initial issue of AZ stockpiling in Italy? 

Currently under 50% of AZ doses delivered to the EU have been put in people's arms. 

Last published figures for the two largest countries are 24% and 15% only. You seem keen to dismiss the point that there is no shortage of AZ doses in the EU at the moment. The could be taken off the shelf and injected. But the beuroceacy has been so shockingly poor they managed to convince their own public against the jab based on no evidence at all. Even Juan Claude junker had a decent rant about the stockpile this morning. 

Solve those issues and use that first then at least the cliam to be missing out might carry some weight. 

[captainb]

26 minutes ago, slawek said:

 

Not quite, trials are fixed costs

I never claimed the research was billions. it must be some misunderstanding. It was always 10s of millions research, billions the rest (trials, building manufacturing capacity, etc).

 

It was a curiosity. It shows how China is using its soft power.

Yes but this report is not full, exclude 10 years of funding before 2020 (an excuse was it was too difficult for them to gather these data) and private funding (including AZ).

Not sure what you mean here. Are you referring to the initial issue of AZ stockpiling in Italy? 

Current figures for az doses as per European centre for disease prevention and control. 

France, AZ does given 2.9m injected 1.6m

Germany 3.4m, 1.9m

Netherlands 850k, 304k

Poland 1.3m, 700k

Portugal 450k, 222k

Romania 700k, 283k

Spain 1.8m, 987k

Sweden 461k, 216k

Iithuania 77k 76k

 

They have a deck chair. They are not sitting on it. But still want the one you booked earlier. 

Aside from Lithuania. They are using there's to be fair. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by captainb
Added Lithuania who actually are using theirs

[slawek]

13 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Perhaps this is simply a cultural thing Slawek?  
 

There is no doubt that U.K. government have been trying to use every means they legally and morally can to get as much vaccine supply as quickly as possible for the U.K. population. And quite frankly the majority of the U.K. population support and approve of this approach.  Indeed, many national politicians within the EU have freely admitted that they should have done (and even now should be doing) the same. 
 

As we are all mourning our lost Mediterranean holidays this year, I have an analogy for you.
 

The British Government got in early, paid top dollar for the sun lounger by the pool, stuck their towel on it and then went in to start queuing for breakfast at the hotel restaurant. The EU Commission spent hours arguing with the deck chair attendant over the price of sun loungers, threatened to throw our towel into the pool, and is now attempting to jump the breakfast queue and be first out in the sunshine. 

It could be partially a cultural issue. The EU has more ethos of working together, the UK is more, me screw others.

Your analogy is not quite correct. There is some false narrative about the UK getting early and paying top dollars. Others paid more, the UK just bribed a right guy to claim its exclusive right to the sun lounger. At the same time the German, being early at breakfast, didn't eat all of the fruit salad. He wanted to be fair and left some for others. At the end the UK got the sun lounge and the fruit salad. The German was left with less fruit salad and no sun lounge.         

[slawek]

14 minutes ago, captainb said:

Currently under 50% of AZ doses delivered to the EU have been put in people's arms. 

Last published figures for the two largest countries are 24% and 15% only. You seem keen to dismiss the point that there is no shortage of AZ doses in the EU at the moment. The could be taken off the shelf and injected. But the beuroceacy has been so shockingly poor they managed to convince their own public against the jab based on no evidence at all. Even Juan Claude junker had a decent rant about the stockpile this morning. 

Solve those issues and use that first then at least the cliam to be missing out might carry some weight. 

I am not sure that is true. There is a lot of false info about it. That is why I am asking for the source. 

[zugzwang]

22 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Today the Commons decide on the extension of the emergency Covid powers. 

True blue Tory back benchers versus an authoritarian PM backed by an authoritarian opposition . 

It's like the Boat Race. Light Blue vs Dark Blue.

[captainb]

3 minutes ago, slawek said:

I am not sure that is true. There is a lot of false info about it. That is why I am asking for the source. 

Google vaccine tracker, ecdc.europa.eu 

Comes up, then you want doses by product at the top. Then table top right. 

Most countries under 50% vaccine usage for az including all the big ones. Lithuania and Ireland doing well on utilisation for whatever reason. 

[nightowl]

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

It is obviously a judgement that we have to make. If this was a disease that killed 60% of the UK population, young and old alike, I think we would all accept that the toll would be too high in every sense not to take extraordinary precautions. And a disease that kills a relatively small number number every year is not worth making an adjustment for.

There is a sliding scale, but given the death toll already, and the known mortality rate among the higher risk category and the R rate, we could easily have seen deaths of 500,000, maybe higher. The burden on our health services would have been too much and it would probably have also hit our economy nearly as badly as the lockdown itself.

Lockdown is bad for mental health, but the death of a loved one can also be bad for mental health. There is nothing binary in this whole equation.

That judgement if what number should we accept isn't easy and made harder by everyone being super sensitised to covid without ever having the same regarding other killers out there. 

Many people know the 125kish number but couldn't tell you how many die a year normally anyway as a perspective.

When with cv19 deaths peaks a 1000/day we all know about it but who would guess right now what the number currently is roughly without looking it up?

Such imbalances of news and reality won't help decide.

Even with the flu vaccine only being semi sucessful we still accept flu deaths. Even if the cv19 vaccine works better and counter balances cv19 higher mortality rate to a degree there's still the same dilemma.  

I have been (famously) sceptical about the 500k number, and now even Prof NF himself has disowned it, so maybe we shouldnt put too much reliance on factoring this into the judgement.

 

 

[Will!]

33 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

After all, that sounds like something the Germans would do, having their eye on technology/IP and the bigger picture rather than looking just at the bottom line and believing that was totally representative of a good job ?

I don't think so in this case.  The Inclusive Vaccine Alliance included Germany and, according to my contact at AZN, was doing a good job negotiating before the EU took over.

 

[14stFlyer]

23 minutes ago, slawek said:

the UK just bribed a right guy to claim its exclusive right to the sun lounger.

Ah, the old tip the waiter trick!

[Bruce Banner]

What we need is cheap home Covid tests that we can use to self certify that we don't have the virus.

[Ah-so]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Indeed, and when the French achieve herd immunity it will be largely natural acquired immunity rather than the UKs vaccine immunity, so yes, an interesting experiment. I am an older person and I would prefer natural immunity.

My Godmother's contribution to herd immunity turned out to be death, so careful what you wish for. 

[Bruce Banner]

11 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

My Godmother's contribution to herd immunity turned out to be death, so careful what you wish for. 

I understand and accept the risks.

Sorry about your Godmother.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[Ah-so]

3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I understand and accept the risks.

Sorry about you Godmother.

No worries - she was hardly young. 

Although it is a human condition that we tend to underestimate risks. Even if not fatal, achieving natural immunity can be deeply unpleasant.