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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
8 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

I'm sorry to read that two of your friends have taken their lives in the last 12 months.  The aftermath of suicide is an unpleasant and long-lasting drain on all concerned.

I've been thinking about the future with COVID 19, as I believe that it will become endemic.  In the 1980's HIV appeared and caused many deaths, principally in the gay community with Western countries.  As with COVID 19, the government was slow to respond, but a variety of gay men's health groups did much to reduce the impact of HIV, gay men changed their sex lives to live to reduce the risk of exposure. Then the retro-virals were developed, followed by combination therapy and PreP.

I'm guessing, as prediction is a risky business, but I think the same track will be followed, people get frightened, as this seems to be part of the government strategy, then they will adapt their lives, especially social lives to minimise risk, and then advances in drugs and treatments will follow.

One thing is certain, whatever major disruptor an individual experiences changes them.  You don't leave a process the same person you entered it.

 

Yes will be interesting where we end up. But totally agree it will be as they as suggested last night endemic forever. 

Which leads to a requirement to move towards a sustainable model of living with the risk and reducing it through treatment wherever possible, much like we do with hiv. 

What that looks like, difficult to say for sure but I imagine, yearly vaccine for vulnerable, mask wearing and a ban of anyone with symptoms attending large scale events etc. Also probably involved a scale up of hospital capacity to meet the new normal. 

What it shouldn't be which is currently being pushed by some is perpetual0 unsustainable lockdowns until there is nothing left. Talk of lockdown till summer then lockdown next year also is a totally ridiculous prospect and comes from a perspective of this is the only risk going. Sadly its not. The actual impact and unsustainablilty of these is only just starting to hit.. Very gently now but give it 6 months and people will start to look back in anger particularly if we are still in a perpetual lockdown at the same time. 

Edited by captainb
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HOLA442

'Researchers at Oxford University are carrying out a Principle trial programme aimed at finding a treatment that can counteract the disease at an early stage and could be used at home soon after symptoms appear.'

'The next batch of medicines it will assess includes ivermectin.....'

https://www.cityam.com/uk-trial-for-cheap-wonder-drug-that-could-prevent-covid-deaths/

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HOLA443
2 hours ago, moonriver said:

What a lack of respect to his current staff the care home owner is showing, by resorting to calling them selfish because they have made their own decision to not take the vaccine.

I can't see how he knows they are "being quite selfish" and "putting peoples' lives at risk" when this new vaccine has not been proven to prevent passing on the virus.

Good luck with finding those new employees if he makes it mandatory. It is well known how hard it is to find care home staff. Awful pay for a phsyically and emotionally draining job. 

Pass a quick law making summary dismissal with no recourse available where an employee in a contact role refuses a vaccine? Let the employers sack selectively & permit tax free hellos & provide corporation tax reliefs to cover recruitment of compliant staff on better pay?

Where there's a will there's a way.

These aren't my views but we shouldn't dismiss or ignore possibilities just because we don't like them.

Edited by hotblack42
Clarify
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HOLA444

The fact the gov/sage are suddenly pushing the variant 'maybe' worse mantra might have something to do with the covid recovery group within the party who want a roadmap out of lockdown getting restless and BJ feeling them breathing down his neck. 

Coincide perhaps but right now who would bet against such things right now....

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HOLA445
17 minutes ago, nightowl said:

The fact the gov/sage are suddenly pushing the variant 'maybe' worse mantra might have something to do with the covid recovery group within the party who want a roadmap out of lockdown getting restless and BJ feeling them breathing down his neck. 

Coincide perhaps but right now who would bet against such things right now....

It might have more to do with the fact the ICU bed occupancy in England jumped by 120 patients yesterday.

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HOLA446
49 minutes ago, Will! said:

It might have more to do with the fact the ICU bed occupancy in England jumped by 120 patients yesterday.

It might, but so many differing opinions and we have a PM who changes his mind almost daily.

'Too early to say': scientists unsure if UK Covid variant is more deadly (msn.com)

From where you sit, is the government doing a competent job with Covid? 

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HOLA447
1 hour ago, nightowl said:

The fact the gov/sage are suddenly pushing the variant 'maybe' worse mantra might have something to do with the covid recovery group within the party who want a roadmap out of lockdown getting restless and BJ feeling them breathing down his neck. 

Coincide perhaps but right now who would bet against such things right now....

To be fair they are damned if they do and don't. 

Data is sketchy at best but if they don't go public and it turns out to be true imagine the headlines... 

Boris known for WEEKS yadda yadda

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HOLA448
17 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Considering how many vaccinations must have been carried out in that time (+200m?) that's a fantasically low figure. 

Individual vaccinations? TB, MMR, polio, pneomococcal, and multiple vaccinations for each? More like 400 million or even more, I expect. Although probably at most 100 million people. 

17 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Really demonstrates just how how safe they are.  

Yep. 

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HOLA4410
3 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

Pass a quick law making summary dismissal with no recourse available where an employee in a contact role refuses a vaccine? Let the employers sack selectively & permit tax free hellos & provide corporation tax reliefs to cover recruitment of compliant staff on better pay?

Where there's a will there's a way.

These aren't my views but we shouldn't dismiss or ignore possibilities just because we don't like them.

Is it your view that staff should be able to put others at risk because of irrational concerns about their own safety?

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HOLA4411
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HOLA4412
12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Is it your view that staff should be able to put others at risk because of irrational concerns about their own safety?

No.  I'm suggesting that the govt might enable them to be given the boot without consequence & replaced by others happy to be vaccinated & grateful for a job.

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HOLA4414
1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

14 consecutive days of over 2k deaths a day. No doubt someone will say 1348 didn't die today. 🙄 Over 500 cases at the DVLA since September. It's unsafe workplaces, people.

 

If we have so far given ~4 million people in priority groups a first injection. Why haven't we given them the 2nd dose for fuller protection yet? With so many deaths why aren't we doing this?

We need to do this and get back to normal as soon as possible with the vaccine passport.

This woman can hardly contain her enthusiasm!

Or these!

https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf

"fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported"

Bock bock! Chicken Boris. Don't be a chicken, Jab the mofos with their 2nd mRNA injection. Prove the skeptics wrong.

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA4415
1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

14 consecutive days of over 2k deaths a day. No doubt someone will say 1348 didn't die today. 🙄 Over 500 cases at the DVLA since September. It's unsafe workplaces, people.

Think you might be building a straw man argument there. No one will say 1348 didn't die, I would just say some of them may have been due to die anyway, and their eventual demise has been re-classified as a covid related death.

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HOLA4416
6 hours ago, anonguest said:

'Researchers at Oxford University are carrying out a Principle trial programme aimed at finding a treatment that can counteract the disease at an early stage and could be used at home soon after symptoms appear.'

'The next batch of medicines it will assess includes ivermectin.....'

https://www.cityam.com/uk-trial-for-cheap-wonder-drug-that-could-prevent-covid-deaths/

Expect Ivermectin to be made illegal in the near future

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419

"...government has quietly extended coronavirus lockdown laws to give local councils in England the power to close pubs, restaurants, shops and public spaces until July 17"

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-lockdown-idUSKBN29S0PW?taid=600cd82cc8ffe70001f65420&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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HOLA4420
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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
8 hours ago, Dr Doom said:

Think you might be building a straw man argument there. No one will say 1348 didn't die, I would just say some of them may have been due to die anyway, and their eventual demise has been re-classified as a covid related death.

Are you due to die anytime soon? 

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HOLA4423
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HOLA4424
1 minute ago, Dr Doom said:

Probably in the next 10 years or so, it's hard to say exactly.

How about yourself ?

Fortunately you don't get to decide who is 'just about to die'. You're a vile nasty shthead who excels in writing complete and utter vile sht. 

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HOLA4425

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