Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Huggy]

 

It's all on your team, clown. The entire shit show. 👇

 

 

"Labour slams PM for not bringing in tight curbs soon"

Didn't Labour abstain from the last lockdown vote? 😂

Too funny. At least, even with all of this nonsense flying around, I get to WFH a bit longer.

[The Spaniard]

Here's Styx doing his Brian Clough "like I said at half-time" thing:

 

[andrewwk]

 

No you haven't, I'm sorry mate I wasn't trying to be rude only to de-escalate, I'm genuinely sorry for your loss and the 60k-odd losses (including some close to myself and no doubt others here as it happens).

They do put business first, this is true, and where I come from up north I'm surprised how many people I know who've voted for them again after what they did in the 80s (sure I've worked for investment banks/tech firms now but both my uncles were miners, battle of orgreave near Sheffield standing up to Thatcher), but we need to come out of our little bubbles (my own little northern bubble included) and look at the rest of our human race, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc. our European partners have done no better, I'd wager you're a remainer too? It's nothing to do with 'trolling' or point scoring hating on alt right or whoever you happen to not like, it's about stopping a rampant pandemic that's claimed millions, including sadly some of your loved ones.

Really? which country is that had the latest and longest lockdown in Europe, the worst death rate of the major European countries, the worst economic contraction in Europe, has spent the most on "fighting" COVID with the worst ROI, has seen the biggest drop in exports in Europe.... and now finally is being completely ostracised by the rest of the world.

 

sooner or later you are going to have to face the fact that, for whatever reason, the UK has been (and continues to be ) one of the worst performers in this crisis.

[Social Justice League]

The 'Get Brexit Done' cabinet along with Mr 'Specsavers' Cummings are totally useless and everyone can see it.

A right shower of idiots who should be charged with treason imo.

[Peter Hun]

 

Oh I'm sorry you've gone in the space of an hour from follow a nice australia model of lockdowns and shutting the borders to full on hard boots on the ground, no leaving the house whatsoever, army on the streets.

Although I note France had the army on the streets lockdown one and that didn't work as well look at them now 

Slightly different. 

If that doesn't work what's the next solution? Dead people are not good vectors.. A final solution perhaps? Leave your house and shoot on sight? 

Or perhaps we admit this isn't the bloomin zombie apocalypse and yes a cure can be worse than a disease. 

 

I didn't.

I've been for closing the borders and a hard lockdown since early, dunno, February. Its all at the start of this thread.

People like you wanted to fook about and that is what you got. Incompetent shambles from the flop-headed tw*t.

[zugzwang]

 

Way hey another isolated island.. Well done. What's next Taiwan? Or are you going for Jersey next? 

Still with the 5 week lockdown cures it all. Just like in France, Italy, Spain all with longer than that for a lockdown and naff all difference. 

 

Or how about the 2 week circuit breaker lockdown.. Ala Wales? That solved everything there as well 

All islands are isolated, dummy. Including Britain last time I checked.

France, Spain and Italy are guilty of the same failure as the UK. Pandering to economic interests rather than making public healthcare their priority.

[Social Justice League]

 

Well ..neither  does the UK now, and its because the other countries don't want to let petri-disk UK out.

Which would have been better,  closed UK borders in March with a functioning UK economy or this sheetshow?

Totally agree, they should have closed the airports and all borders in March if they were serious about getting rid of the deadly virus.  The government has managed to let the virus get out of control and destroy the economy, so it's a double disaster with the potential of a no deal brexit to come. 

Every wheel is coming off now and we're in a hell hole.

[captainb]

 

I didn't.

I've been for closing the borders and a hard lockdown since early, dunno, February. Its all at the start of this thread.

People like you wanted to fook about and that is what you got. Incompetent shambles from the flop-headed tw*t.

Say what it actually is you want. 

Stop with this all we need is a 5 week lockdown and it's all sun and roses claptrap. Plenty of places have had a longer than 5 week lockdown, with army on the streets with notes needed to leave your flat for 15 minutes and it hasn't worked. 

So what is it? 

You have the army on the streets? 

The morons who refuse to wear masks go out and then what? Put them into camps? Shoot them? What exactly? 

How is this very hard lockdown enforced? 

How do you allow people to go out to tesco to buy milk but ensure they don't go around their mates house to drink larger to 2am?

Define what is actually required then allow people to consider if that cost outweighs the benefit or not. 

Stop pretending a solution exists when it clearly doesn't.

Yes it works in new Zealand and Jersey and Isle of Mann and hey even the outer Scottish Islands, given small populations that are isolated. Enforcement across the UK or Spain or Germany is something else. 

And yes this is crap. It really is crap endless lockdowns but so is shooting people. 

[captainb]

 

All islands are isolated, dummy. Including Britain last time I checked.

France, Spain and Italy are guilty of the same failure as the UK. Pandering to economic interests rather than making public healthcare their priority.

Ah well done genius. So the mass panic over a 48 hour shut down of roll on roll off ferries at Dover shows just how the UK is just as isolated as the Isle of Mann - 2 boats a day. 

All islands are the same. Great. 

So Spain, France and Co who have all done longer than 5 week lockdowns and are still in a mess are because.. Right they didn't do a 5 week lockdown? 

Stop pretending a solution for NZ can be directly applied to Germany etc.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

In case you missed it, France has reopened the border. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9073729/Britains-supermarket-shelves-Frances-Covid-ban-British-truckers.html

Edited December 21, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Social Justice League]

 

Say what it actually is you want. 

Stop with this all we need is a 5 week lockdown and it's all sun and roses claptrap. Plenty of places have had a longer than 5 week lockdown, with army on the streets with notes needed to leave your flat for 15 minutes and it hasn't worked. 

So what is it? 

You have the army on the streets? 

The morons who refuse to wear masks go out and then what? Put them into camps? Shoot them? What exactly? 

How is this very hard lockdown enforced? 

How do you allow people to go out to tesco to buy milk but ensure they don't go around their mates house to drink larger to 2am?

Define what is actually required then allow people to consider if that cost outweighs the benefit or not. 

Stop pretending a solution exists when it clearly doesn't.

Yes it works in new Zealand and Jersey and Isle of Mann and hey even the outer Scottish Islands, given small populations that are isolated. Enforcement across the UK or Spain or Germany is something else. 

And yes this is crap. It really is crap endless lockdowns but so is shooting people. 

I'm not for lockdowns but the UK is a fooking island, so closing the borders is easy if the will is there.  We were and are letting  flights land from China ffs.

Boris is an idiot and I'm happy it's all falling apart for the 'Get Brexit Done' lot.  Fook 'Em.

[zugzwang]

 

Here's Styx doing his Brian Clough "like I said at half-time" thing:

 

 This twit didn't predict anything. Viruses mutate continuously via quantum shifts in their genetic structure.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Ah well done genius. So the mass panic over a 48 hour shut down of roll on roll off ferries at Dover shows just how the UK is just as isolated as the Isle of Mann - 2 boats a day. 

All islands are the same. Great. 

So Spain, France and Co who have all done longer than 5 week lockdowns and are still in a mess are because.. Right they didn't do a 5 week lockdown? 

Stop pretending a solution for NZ can be directly applied to Germany etc.

Germany was doing pretty well, maintaining low infection rates with managable restrictions, until local politicians decided to go against the scientists advice and open up pretty much everything.

[captainb]

 

Germany was doing pretty well, maintaining low infection rates with managable restrictions, until local politicians decided to go against the scientists advice and open up pretty much everything.

Its spread right across Eastern Europe from Poland to Russia, Austria etc from September onwards. 

We like to think policy has so much impact but when you take a step back all the impacts have been around the edges compared to genetics and geography. 

Most absurdly evidenced by the its all eat out to helps out fault. As if cheap burgers in swindon also had an impact in Paris and Rome. 

Not to say policy hasn't been crap but the idea that shutting tk maxx makes or breaks the spread of this as presented to the public is absurd. 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Many areas of the world - particularly the poorer ones - have explored treatment with existing drugs and found extremely efficacious treatments that have dramatically reduced the severity of the epidemic.

They kept that very quiet. 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Many areas of the world - particularly the poorer ones - have explored treatment with existing drugs and found extremely efficacious treatments that have dramatically reduced the severity of the epidemic.

They kept that very quiet. 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

Say what it actually is you want. 

Stop with this all we need is a 5 week lockdown and it's all sun and roses claptrap. Plenty of places have had a longer than 5 week lockdown, with army on the streets with notes needed to leave your flat for 15 minutes and it hasn't worked. 

So what is it? 

You have the army on the streets? 

The morons who refuse to wear masks go out and then what? Put them into camps? Shoot them? What exactly? 

How is this very hard lockdown enforced? 

How do you allow people to go out to tesco to buy milk but ensure they don't go around their mates house to drink larger to 2am?

Define what is actually required then allow people to consider if that cost outweighs the benefit or not. 

Stop pretending a solution exists when it clearly doesn't.

Yes it works in new Zealand and Jersey and Isle of Mann and hey even the outer Scottish Islands, given small populations that are isolated. Enforcement across the UK or Spain or Germany is something else. 

And yes this is crap. It really is crap endless lockdowns but so is shooting people. 

There's something perculiarly British about the reaction to "army on the streets" or "bringing in the army".

I think it must have something to do with the fact that the army normally isn't that visible in this country. When you go to european countries army uniforms in public are a lot more prevalent. This may well have something to do with national service, as well as a hangover from the past where wearing army uniforms in public in the UK was seen as a security issue.

I'm not sure that closing borders now will have much effect. I was for closing borders in March, but it should have been a complete lockdown, with no non essential travel and the lockdown held.

BBC indicates this new virus has been circulating since at least September and it made up a quarter of London UK cases in November. If this is the case, and given the amount of travel that seems to occur, locking down borders now very much looks like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. IMO borders should have been locked and remain locked since March.

[captainb]

 

There's something perculiarly British about the reaction to "army on the streets" or "bringing in the army".

I think it must have something to do with the fact that the army normally isn't that visible in this country. When you go to european countries army uniforms in public are a lot more prevalent. This may well have something to do with national service, as well as a hangover from the past where wearing army uniforms in public in the UK was seen as a security issue.

I'm not sure that closing borders now will have much effect. I was for closing borders in March, but it should have been a complete lockdown, with no non essential travel and the lockdown held.

BBC indicates this new virus has been circulating since at least September and it made up a quarter of London UK cases in November. If this is the case, and given the amount of travel that seems to occur, locking down borders now very much looks like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. IMO borders should have been locked and remain locked since March.

I get all of that and actually agree. 

My point is for the first lockdown in France they did have the army on the streets and you had to have a note to say why you are leaving your flat. For weeks. No outdoors exercise unless you had a dog. Etc etc 

And that didn't work. As they are erm still in lcokdown. 

So if that wasn't a proper lockdown.. What is a proper lockdown? For a country like Spain, UK, France, Germany not the Isle of Mann or Jersey. 

 

Whats actually required to crush it in 5 weeks etc. As let's get real it's not just having a few fixed penalty notices and tougher mask enforcement in the tesco checkout lane. 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by captainb

[Pebbles]

 

All islands are isolated, dummy. Including Britain last time I checked.

France, Spain and Italy are guilty of the same failure as the UK. Pandering to economic interests rather than making public healthcare their priority.

Absolutely correct

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

I get all of that and actually agree. 

My point is for the first lockdown in France they did have the army on the streets and you had to have a note to say why you are leaving your flat. For weeks. No outdoors exercise unless you had a dog. Etc etc 

And that didn't work. As they are erm still in lcokdown. 

So if that wasn't a proper lockdown.. What is a proper lockdown? For a country like Spain, UK, France, Germany not the Isle of Mann or Jersey. 

 

 

Maybe it is the message that it sends rather than any actual physical impact - like for example the message that the situation is really serious and you need to stay at home. Certainly I think most people would be more reluctant to go out if they knew they were actually going to be stopped and questioned by anyone, be it the police or the army.

So the purposes of using the army would be i) for psychological effect and ii) to enforce any additional rules regulations that should apply such as curfews.

Whether it would be effective or not, I really don't know.

[captainb]

 

Maybe it is the message that it sends rather than any actual physical impact - like for example the message that the situation is really serious and you need to stay at home. Certainly I think most people would be more reluctant to go out if they knew they were actually going to be stopped and questioned by anyone, be it the police or the army.

So the purposes of using the army would be i) for psychological effect and ii) to enforce any additional rules regulations that should apply such as curfews.

Whether it would be effective or not, I really don't know.

I actually wouldn't have an issue with army on the streets if it did crush it and have the desired impact. Unfortunately it didn't have that impact in France so I struggle to see why it would here. 

 

Its easy to say we need a firm lockdown and it will definitely work but given other European countries have had firm lcokdowns and it hasn't worked.. Then what? What actually is this firm lcokdown that works in the size of a country like France? 

You have to answer the uncomfortable question of what to do you do when people don't comply.. Not just a couple like on the Isle of Mann but thousands. Less of an issue in China with the PLP on the streets I would suggest... 

That's not been forthcoming in this hard lockdown analysis. 

[Riedquat]

 

Maybe it is the message that it sends rather than any actual physical impact - like for example the message that the situation is really serious and you need to stay at home. Certainly I think most people would be more reluctant to go out if they knew they were actually going to be stopped and questioned by anyone, be it the police or the army.

So the purposes of using the army would be i) for psychological effect and ii) to enforce any additional rules regulations that should apply such as curfews.

Whether it would be effective or not, I really don't know.

Such things might've been acceptable in the USSR. They should never be regarded as acceptable in any supposedly civilised country, no matter what reasons anyone comes up with to scare people in to accepting them. And yes, I regard the impact of the virus as a lesser evil than that level of authority even existing.

[Peter Hun]

 

Say what it actually is you want. 

Stop with this all we need is a 5 week lockdown and it's all sun and roses claptrap. Plenty of places have had a longer than 5 week lockdown, with army on the streets with notes needed to leave your flat for 15 minutes and it hasn't worked. 

So what is it? 

You have the army on the streets? 

The morons who refuse to wear masks go out and then what? Put them into camps? Shoot them? What exactly? 

How is this very hard lockdown enforced? 

How do you allow people to go out to tesco to buy milk but ensure they don't go around their mates house to drink larger to 2am?

Define what is actually required then allow people to consider if that cost outweighs the benefit or not. 

Stop pretending a solution exists when it clearly doesn't.

Yes it works in new Zealand and Jersey and Isle of Mann and hey even the outer Scottish Islands, given small populations that are isolated. Enforcement across the UK or Spain or Germany is something else. 

And yes this is crap. It really is crap endless lockdowns but so is shooting people. 

 

[Riedquat]

 

I actually wouldn't have an issue with army on the streets if it did crush it and have the desired impact. Unfortunately it didn't have that impact in France so I struggle to see why it would here.

The UK doesn't fear its own army. It's not regarded as a tool to keep the population in line doing what those in power want them to do. And there should be no means by which it's possible to change that, no matter how appealing the short-term prospect of being able to treat the population like livestock is.

[captainb]

 

 

 

So if we take those stats at face value. 

So you want a Chinese system with full enforcement as such? 

So your answer to non compliance with the state mandates is enforcement camp's? Anything else from the parties enforcement book? 

Organ harvesting for sects you don't like? Personally the tin foil hat anti vax lot are horrific but i wouldn't have thought you would go that far..... 

Edited December 21, 2020 by captainb