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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441

The borders should have been closed in March this criminal government allowed covid to reach this shores we are an island like Australia and New Zealand we should have been much better at getting this virus under control. Still looking forward to those who continually (wrongly) state closing boarders doesn't help despite evidence from down under to the contrary. At least Europe has the balls to do something albeit far too little too late.

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HOLA442
 

Germanies local politicians got complacent and opened up too much, in defiance of central government advice. I was in Munich in November and commented on here that life was almost back to normal, maybe too normal. What they are finding now is that once you let the genie out of the bottle it is hard to put it back in.  

Though if they'd have 'eradicated' it, normality or not wouldn't be an issue (see China, see NZ etc). Germany did great at first for sure, but the 'zero-covid pitch' is/was short sharp/harsh lockdowns when there's a flare up and contact tracing then you're all good ... hence some people's scepticism and hence @captainb comment.

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HOLA443
 

The borders should have been closed in March this criminal government allowed covid to reach this shores we are an island like Australia and New Zealand we should have been much better at getting this virus under control. Still looking forward to those who continually (wrongly) state closing boarders doesn't help despite evidence from down under to the contrary. At least Europe has the balls to do something albeit far too little too late.

A lefty guardian journalist would have cried, sorry 70k have to die now.

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HOLA444
 

In my view they really should state once everyone over 65 or with severe underlying conditions has been offered a vaccine they will lift all restrictions.

Won't happen. Even if the COVID bed wetters feel safe once they've got their nano lipid jab for something with an average death age above life expectancy, all it takes is another dog whistle from the government "ScIeNcE" and they'll be screaming for more at the start of year 2. F*ck everyone else.

You have to wonder about these people. Especially when it takes very little for them to say "Your a Russian Bot" as they so often have. Imagine if I said something like I was married to a Russian? They'd take it to the bank on that in spades.

 

My Mrs is Chinese, respect and the idea of society still counts for something over there. Its a function of where you sit on the political axis of authoritarianism (less or more) as far as I can see.

What are her and your views on China's 260 concentration camps? Similar I would imagine? A constructive useful part of a functioning society.

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HOLA445
 

Australia also doesn't have a border with hundreds of ships and trucks rolling though it daily between France, UK, Ireland etc. You can't stop or you risk empty food shelves and that really is a lot worse than Cv19. 

That argument doesn't wash on the continent, they seem to see letting the new variant as worse than the disruption caused by closing their borders with the UK. However, I expect they are too late as every train/plane arriving in the last few days will have carried passengers with the new variant.

As far as the rest of the UK is concerned, every packed train leaving London last night will have started out with many infected passengers on it and arrived with a lot more (On the ONS figures of 1.2% of people currently infected with 60% having the new variant, gives you an average of 7 or 8 people infected with the new variant boarding the train and who knows how many by the time they arrive).    

 

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HOLA446
 

 

 

Sadly Europe's best example was probably Germany and even they look pretty dire right now on the Cv19 front. 

Geography and genetics are clearly not helping

I think Germany is the European country with the strongest anti lockdown movement.  Not sure where you are getting your information from.

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HOLA449
 

What are her and your views on China's 260 concentration camps? Similar I would imagine? A constructive useful part of a functioning society.

Oh yeah, 100% she's biased don't get me wrong, they're brought up with this national pride for China (she's posted videos of rockets firing from Chinese warships on her twitter before about how proud she is of their military bless her ffs 😂) obviously I tactfully choose when to disagree with her.

Anyway domestics aside, this is the point I'm making about authoritarianism, it works very well for this edge case normal times are a different story. I read Computer Science at Uni, dissertation (without boring folks) was on algorithms that solve mathematically hard (NP-complete) problems very quickly for subsets of their parameters 'state-space' (i.e. under certain conditions), the point: sometimes you'd normally look at a solution and think "why the f*ck would you try that? it's an atrocious was of attacking this problem" then things change and in the specific given context it's a perfect solution ... even a stopped clock is right twice a day ;)

Edited by CityLAD88888
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HOLA4410
 

That argument doesn't wash on the continent, they seem to see letting the new variant as worse than the disruption caused by closing their borders with the UK. However, I expect they are too late as every train/plane arriving in the last few days will have carried passengers with the new variant.

As far as the rest of the UK is concerned, every packed train leaving London last night will have started out with many infected passengers on it and arrived with a lot more (On the ONS figures of 1.2% of people currently infected with 60% having the new variant, gives you an average of 7 or 8 people infected with the new variant boarding the train and who knows how many by the time they arrive).    

 

Also especially since it's already been detected in the Netherlands.

Yeah though 100% those train scenes were a car crash and that strain is all over the country now. 

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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413
 

I think Germany is the European country with the strongest anti lockdown movement.  Not sure where you are getting your information from.

Yes, lots of people thought that with the low rates of infections and daily deaths being in single figures there was a strong feeling it was all over, a fuss about nothing and time to reopen. 

Now they know they were wrong but it is proving very hard to put the genie back in the bottle. The contact tracing that served them so well for months is now swamped which means much tighter restrictions are now required to bring the infection rate back down than were required to keep them at a low level.

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HOLA4414
 

Oh yeah, 100% she's biased don't get me wrong, they're brought up with this national pride for China (she's posted videos of rockets firing from Chinese warships on her twitter before about how proud she is of their military bless her ffs 😂) obviously I tactfully choose when to disagree with her.

Well isn't that quaint. You tactfully disagree with someone about a country with 260 concentration camps.

 

Anyway domestics aside, this is the point I'm making about authoritarianism, it works very well for this edge case normal times are a different story.

Of course it does. That's why Zugzwang still hasn't answered my question about why China is the only country in the world with photo's of people lying on the floor of the streets from C19.

Have you taken the vaccine yet?

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HOLA4415
 

@Confusion of VIs You were one of my biggest critics about closing borders in march and april. What's changed? or is it just that the EU is doing it now so it must be right.

Exactly. I'm a bible thumping remain voter (sorry nothing against leave, totally respect the vote etc. etc. totally off-topic of course), but how much of this is really science? If we wanted to close borders in March/Apr we were obviously all racists (leave alone it being the first effing thing Taiwan etc did), and now? Liberal elite media now clap along whole heartedly when UK citizens are denied entry to other countries with immediate effect given the new strain (as they should, it's the right thing to do)  

This is PRECISELY what I was talking about re western world being too soft.

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HOLA4416
 

Because in a 'proper hard lockdown' they'd have had no choice ... we'd have had drones shaming people who left their house (a la China), BLM/counter protests? Try tanks on Tiananmen square. This is what I'm saying about the western world being too 'soft', for want of a better word, to accept what they did in the far east to get to zero-covid. My Mrs is Chinese, respect and the idea of society still counts for something over there. Its a function of where you sit on the political axis of authoritarianism (less or more) as far as I can see.

"The borders should have been shut and the police and army on the streets" 100% agree with you my friend, but how many whingy Guardian articles would we have had about minorities or what not as though we weren't in the middle of a deadly global catastrophe. Face it we're too 'weak and decadent' to do what you and others are suggesting. 

Strange as I see the opposite. These idiotic anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-lockdown bed-wetters are invariably alt right Trumpy populists whinging on about freedoms.

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HOLA4417
 

The French are always protesting, it's in their blood.

The law did not ban recording the police, it banned publishing pictures with the intent to cause harm to an individual and without a public interest defence. The same protection provided to all citizens under French privacy laws. But as I said above, unless Pig's assessment of your intellectual capability is correct, you already knew that.

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HOLA4418
 

Well isn't that quaint. You tactfully disagree with someone about a country with 260 concentration camps.

Hey man, I'm being honest, I'm a 33year old lad, on Saturday night when we're in bed and it's 'our night' (if you catch what I'm saying) I'm not going to start p*ssing her off 🤪

"Have you taken the vaccine yet?" I will be first in line when I get chance for sure, though again being 33 sadly they're only offering to over 50's first

Edited by CityLAD88888
response to vaccine question
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HOLA4419
 

@Confusion of VIs You were one of my biggest critics about closing borders in march and april. What's changed? or is it just that the EU is doing it now so it must be right.

No my views haven't changed. I think it will prove both expensive and futile, if you cannot keep R below 1 internally it only takes one case to get through and you will soon have mass spread. 

With a vaccine now rolling out, maybe you could make an argument that even if it only delays the spread by a few weeks it would be worth it. However, I expect that as before we will soon find out that it spread well beyond the UK's borders and the EU has left it too late and they will have to intensify their own lockdowns. 

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HOLA4420
 

The French are always protesting, it's in their blood.

The law did not ban recording the police, it banned publishing pictures with the intent to cause harm to an individual and without a public interest defence. The same protection provided to all citizens under French privacy laws. But as I said above, unless Pig's assessment of your intellectual capability is correct, you already knew that.

It works both ways. You are clearly as stupid as you and your Dunning-Kruger like friends confetti like judgements of others intelligence indicate. The law would have given police carte blanche to beat the sh*t out of anyone they liked then whine about it if exposed, but then you'd proably agree with that as an ex-civil servant.

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HOLA4421
 

Strange as I see the opposite. These idiotic anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-lockdown bed-wetters are invariably alt right Trumpy populists whinging on about freedoms.

Meh, I've seen a mix, I wait to hear people's opinion before I judge but my point about 'guardian articles' was that closing borders and locking down hard at the start (as we agree would have worked) would have invoked the ire of liberal elite media rather than the alt right who ironically would have been on the zero-covid 'side'. 

So back to the first point best to listen to individuals opinions rather than write people off by scapegoating or without listening first :)

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HOLA4422
 

It works both ways. You are clearly as stupid as you and your Dunning-Kruger like friends confetti like judgements of others intelligence indicate. The law would have given police carte blanche to beat the sh*t out of anyone they liked then whine about it if exposed, but then you'd proably agree with that as an ex-civil servant.

No it wouldn't, but as I said you already know that.

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HOLA4423
 

Meh, I've seen a mix, I wait to hear people's opinion before I judge but my point about 'guardian articles' was that closing borders and locking down hard at the start (as we agree would have worked) would have invoked the ire of liberal elite media rather than the alt right who ironically would have been on the zero-covid 'side'. 

So back to the first point best to listen to individuals opinions rather than write people off by scapegoating or without listening first :)

This has nothing to do with liberal elite you are simply projecting your own bias. If it was acceptable for the alt-right to lock down hard then why didn't it happen under a Tory government? Reason they thought the UK could take it on the chin. Business first. Health second. 

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HOLA4424
 

This has nothing to do with liberal elite you are simply projecting your own bias. If it was acceptable for the alt-right to lock down hard then why didn't it happen under a Tory government? Reason they thought the UK could take it on the chin. Business first. Health second. 

😂 chill mate, what own bias? I have no biases I'm here to discuss and debate. I don't know that much about the alt right but it's mostly a US fringe movement mostly online isn't it? What's it go to do with the UK Tory party? Tories having have had been around since the 1600s or so.

If it was 'business first' (I was running a start up at the time, I dearly wish it would have been!) they'd have looked at Taiwan etc. and said, "well this zero-covid looks like a good way to get businesses back up to normal quickly".

Next you'll be telling me it was Bolshevik Jews that planned it all or them 'effing muslims' that need to be scapegoated

Have you seen anyone about your anger/urine fetish issues?

Edited by CityLAD88888
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HOLA4425
 

😂 chill mate, what own bias? I have no biases I'm here to discuss and debate. I don't know that much about the alt right but it's mostly a US fringe movement mostly online isn't it? What's it go to do with the UK Tory party? Tories having have had been around since the 1600s or so.

If it was 'business first' (I was running a start up at the time, I dearly wish it would have been!) they'd have looked at Taiwan etc. and said, "well this zero-covid looks like a good way to get businesses back up to normal quickly".

Next you'll be telling me it was Bolshevik Jews that planned it all or them 'effing muslims' that need to be scapegoated

Have you seen anyone about your anger/urine fetish issues?

Have I been rude to you? No need to be rude just because you hold a seperate view point. I know 2 people who have died from Covid and I'm sure they'd love to be posting to some random on a website now.

The fact is the Tories always put business and profits before people and health. If you don't yet know that then you're either trolling or not very observant. Look at how the government initially handled everything. It was stiff upper lip take it on the chin British exceptionalism and no lesson would be learnt from any other country. Not least Taiwam. FFS

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